11-12-08

[Mr. IWS]

:burn:

[Mr. IWS]

Burns NHL

blackhawks

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al?

3* Northern Illinois

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

Wednesday
5 Dime Central Michigan (be sure to buy the 1/2-point in this game if your bookmaker is showing a +3 and get the 3-1/2 points with the underdog)

5 Dime - Temple

5 Dime - Temple/Kent St Over

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Bob

NORTHERN ILL (-3.5) 32 Central Mich 19
05:00 PM Pacific Time Wednesday, Nov-12 - Stats Matchup
Central Michigan, at 7-2, has a better record than 5-4 Northern Illinois, but the Huskies are clearly the better team and are in a good situation to bounce back from last week’s 14-45 beating at unbeaten Ball State. Central Michigan is a pretty good offensive team by MAC standards, as the Chippewas have averaged 5.7 yards per play against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 5.7 yppl to an average team, but Northern Illinois is just as good defensively – allowing 5.4 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team. The difference in this game is when the Huskies have the ball. Northern Illinois is 0.2 yppl worse than average for the season (5.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team), and 0.1 yppl worse than average with Chandler Harnish at quarterback, but Central Michigan is a horrendous 1.0 yppl worse than average defensively – allowing 6.3 yppl to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average defensie team. The Chippewas can’t stop the run (5.2 yprp allowed) or the pass (7.2 yppp allowed), so Northern Illinois should be able to sustain plenty of scoring drives while their defense limits Dan LeFevour and company. My math model favors Northern Illinois by 9 ½ points in this game and the Huskies apply to a very good 89-34-1 ATS blowout bounce-back situation that is based on last week’s humiliating loss. I’ll take Northern Illinois in a 3-Star Best Bet at -3 or less (at -115 or better odds) and for 2-Stars up to -6 points.

Temple (-1.0) 26 KENT STATE 22
05:00 PM Pacific Time Wednesday, Nov-12 - Stats Matchup
Temple would be better than 3-6 straight up if starting quarterback Adam DiMichele would have not missed 4 games with an injury. DiMichele’s passing numbers are much, much, better than backup Chester Stewart, as DiMichele is just a bit below average on a national scale in yards per pass play. Temple doesn’t have any rushing attack to help balance the attack, but DiMichele should post good numbers against a Kent defense that’s allowed 6.7 yards per pass play to a schedule of quarterbacks that would combine to average only 5.7 yppp against an average defensive team. The Owls are very good defensively, especially by MAC standards, as they have allowed just 5.0 yards per play this season to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average stop unit. Kent is a good running team and their offense is average overall, but they are at a disadvantage in this game. The line on this game isn’t factoring in how much better the Owls’ offense is with DiMichele back and my math model favors Temple by 8 ½ points in this game. Unfortunately, Temple applies to a negative 66-152-2 ATS situation and a 24-61 ATS situation, so I won’t be making the Owls a play here. Kent is just 1-13 ATS their last 14 games when they are not an underdog of more than 3 points, and I’ll lean with Temple at -3 ½ or less.

[Mr. IWS]

ROOT

Chairman- Miami of Ohio
Millionaire- Raptors
Billionaire- Hornets

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

Click Here to View Pick Analysis
I'm taking the points with CENTRAL MICHIGAN. The Huskies (5-4) have certainly come a long way from last year's 2-10 team. That being said, I don't feel that they're ready to be laying more than a field goal against a team which is playing as well as Central Michigan is. The Chippewas come in with a 7-2 record, including a perfect 5-0 mark in MAC play. Their only two losses came back in September against teams from the SEC and Big 10. Speaking of the Big-10, the Chippewas knocked off a Big-10 team last time out, winning 37-34 at Indiana. While the Hoosiers aren't one of the better teams in their conference, the fact that the Chippewas could go on the road and beat a team from the Big-10 shows what kind of team this is. While the Chippewas come in beaming with confidence, the Huskies may be questioning themselves after suffering their first blowout loss of the season. That came at Ball State and they were crushed 45-14. The Huskies couldn't stop Cardinal QB Nate Davis, who was 18-of-22 for 300 yards and four touchdowns. Now they'll face another top tier QB in Dan LeFevour, who is expected to return for Central Michigan. Note that LeFevour leads the team in rushing and has completed 67% of his passes with 11 touchdowns to just three interceptions. Additonally, note that last year, LeFevour had more than 3000 yards passing and more than 1000 yards rushing. Only one other quarterback (Vince Young with Texas) in NCAA history had ever accomplished that feat. Should LeFevour be unable to go, the Chippewas also have a backup QB who is beaming with confidence and who has proven more than capable of leading the offense. Not only did Brian Brunner pass for 485 yards and four touchdowns last week, he also ran for the game-winning touchdown. The Huskies are fine when they can play ahead but don't necessarily have the type of offense that is well-suited to coming back or playing from behind, which may well prove to be a problem against this explosive CMU offense. Last week, the Huskies managed just 275 total yards and punted eight times. (Note that some of the punts weren't very good) They had seven three-and-outs, managed only 12 first downs and didn't score a single point in the first half. They finished with 14 after scoring 16 in their previous game. While I feel Central Michigan has an excellent shot at the outright win, getting more than a field goal to work with is also significant. That's because the Chippewas have played seven straight games which were decided by 10 points or less and four of those were decided by a field goal or less. Meanwhile, Northern Illinois has seen five of its nine games decided by four points or less. Note that the Huskies are 4-10 ATS the last 14 times they were laying points. During the same stretch, the Chippewas were 9-4 ATS when getting points. The Chippewas snapped a losing streak in the series with a convincing 35-10 win over Northern Illinois last season. Including that result, they're 18-2 SU (14-4-2 ATS) their last 20 games against teams from the MAC. Look for another strong effort as they move to 8-1 ATS their last nine games against teams with a winning record. *Best Bet

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS
NBA

I'm playing on NEW ORLEANS. The Lakers are playing very well right now. They're at a scheduling disadvantage tonight though and taking on a New Orleans team which is also extremely strong. While the Hornets are well-rested, the Lakers are playing their second game in two nights and their third in the past four, all three in different cities. This is just the second time the Lakers have played back to back games this season. They did win and cover in the back half of the first b2b situation. However, the first game was at home and the second was vs. the Clippers, so there was no travel involved. Additionally, they were coming off a blowout win the previous night. That wasn't the case last night though, as the Lakers were involved in a dogfight at Dallas the entire way. In fact, the Mavs had the lead at the end of the first, second and third quarters and the score was 99-97 in the final minutes. Regardless of whether or not fatigue proves to be a factor, New Orleans is a very tough place to play these days. The Hornets won by double-digits last time out and are now 17-3 SU and 14-5-1 ATS their last 20 games here. Of course, the Lakers know that all too well, as they lost 108-98 the last time they played here. Looking back further and we find the Hornets at 5-2 ATS (4-3 SU) the last seven series meetings overall. The Hornets are 45-18 SU and 43-18-2 ATS the last 63 times they were coming off a game vs. an opponent from the Eastern Conference and I look for them to carry the positive momentum from their win over Miami into tonight's game. With tonight's over/under line currently at 193.5 or 194, it's interesting to note that the Lakers are just 2-7 SU/ATS the last nine times they played a road game with an over/under line in the 190 to 194.5 range. During the same stretch, the Hornets were 18-5 SU/ATS when playing a home game with a total in the same range. Look for them to be both the fresher and the hungrier team tonight and for them to hand the Lakers their first loss. *Personal Favorite

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness NCAA Football



Larry's MAC Showdown Part 1

Larry has always loved handicapping the MAC (he attended Ohio) and since Oct 18, he's gone a PERFECT 5-0 in games involving two MAC teams (all but one coming on these weekday contests). After passing last night's game, he returns with a vengeance, offering a double-dose of MAC Showdown winners. "Don't get caught on the sidelines!"

Temple Owls



Larry's MAC Showdown Part 2-CMU/NIU:5-0 run

Larry has always loved handicapping the MAC (he attended Ohio) and since Oct 18, he's gone a PERFECT 5-0 in games involving two MAC teams (all but one coming on these weekday contests). After passing last night's game, he returns with a vengeance, offering a double-dose of MAC Showdown winners. "Don't get caught on the sidelines!"


Northern Illinois

[Mr. IWS]

dr bob

Wednesday College Best Bet
**MICHIGAN (-5 ½) over Northeastern
05:00 PM Pacific - Rotation 726
Michigan applies to a very good 90-36-2 ATS game 2 situation that just won with Duke last night and the Wolverines apply to a 32-6 ATS subset of that angle. Northeastern returns all 5 starters and all key reserves from last season, but they didn’t learn to shoot the ball any better since last season, as the Huskies made just 42% of their shots in last night’s 73-60 win over IUPUI. Northeastern was a bad shooting team last season (41.8% FG) and this year they are an experienced bad shooting team, so having 5 returning starters doesn’t necessarily mean that the Bulldogs are a better team – although I do rate them a few points higher than last year to start the season. While a 13 point win as a 6 ½ point favorite last night seems impressive, that win was a function of randomly poor 3-point shooting by IUPUI, who made just 2 of 17 3-pointers. More telling is the 53% of their 2 point shots that IUPUI made and Michigan star Manny Harris should get to the rim pretty easily in this game. Michigan was a bad shooting team last season too, but coach John Beilein vows that his team is better defensively and will shoot the ball better this season. It’s tough to know much from a game against a bad team like Michigan Tech, but the 52% shooting is encouraging. I raised Michigan’s rating a bit to open this season and my ratings favor Michigan by 6 points, which is where the line opened, so the line is fair and the situation is good. I’ll take Michigan in a 2-Star Best Bet at -6 or less and for 3-Stars at -5 or less.

Wednesday NBA Opinion
TORONTO (-5 ½) over Philadelphia
Toronto is coming off a Monday night loss in Boston, but the Raptors are one of the most resilient teams in the NBA and should bounce back with a good effort tonight if history is any indication. Toronto is 43-19-1 ATS with star Chris Bosh in the lineup following a loss, including 21-4 ATS at home after at least one night off between games. Unfortunately, my ratings only favor Toronto by 4 ½ points in this game, which is where the line opened, and I’m not going to give up line value to play the Raptors in a Best Bet. I’ll lean with Toronto at the current line of -5 ½ points and I’d play the Raptors as a 2-Star Best Bet at -4 ½ points or less.