11-13-08

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

Thursday
10 Dime Buffalo (be sure to buy the 1/2-point in this game if your bookmaker is showing a +3 and get the 3-1/2 points with the underdog)

10 Dime - Miami/Florida

10 Dime 6-point Teaser - Jets and Under



FREE - Buffalo-Akron Over

[Mr. IWS]

BIG AL's 49-16 ATS COLLEGE HOOPS BANK SHOT WINNER -- Thursday

At 11 pm, in the quarterfinal round of the 2K Hoops Classic, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins minus the points over Miami-Ohio.


BIG AL's 100% (17-0 ATS) PERFECT PATS/JETS WINNER -- Thursday

At 8:15 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over the NY Jets.

[Mr. IWS]

ben burns nfl thursday toy!
Game: New York Jets at New England Patriots Nov 13 2008 8:15PM
Prediction: under
Reason: I'm playing on the Jets and Patriots to finish UNDER the total. This over/under line opened at 40 but has climbed all the way above the 41 mark. That probably doesn't sound like much but it's very important as both 40 and 41 are very common final scores in the NFL. While the additional line value is certainly an important factor, the reason I like this play so much is because of the excellent play by both defenses in recent weeks. The Jets shutout the Rams for the first half last week and limited them to just three total points for the game. St. Louis managed a mere 200 total yards. The New England defense was arguably even better. The Patriots limited the Bills to 10 points and only 168 total yards, including a miniscule 58 in the second half. Looking at the previous week and we find that the Jets limited the Bills to just 17 points while the Patriots gave up only 18 at Indianapolis. The Jets have now held four of their past five opponents to 17 points or less and are allowing an average of only 14.8 points per game during that stretch. Not to be outdone, the Pats have now given up 18 points or less in four straight games, allowing an average of just 10.25 per game during that stretch. Back to my point about line value, these teams met in September and the over/under line was just 37 or 37.5. Yet, the teams combined for only 29 points, as New England won by a score of 19-10. Note that the Jets have seen the UNDER go 3-0 the last three times they were attempting to avenge an earlier loss. Looking back further and we find that 18 of the last 19 series meetings have had over/under lines of 41.5 or less. Yet, here we've got two defenses playing great and no Tom Brady and we're still getting a line which is higher than 41. The Jets have now won three straight. Despite last week's game finishing above the number (27 New York points came after the Rams had turned the ball over) the UNDER is still a profitable 35-18-3 the past 56 times that the Jets were coming off back to back victories. I'm expecting a well-played defensive affair with the UNDER improving to 6-2-1 the last nine times that the Patriots were favored by four points or less and 8-2 the last 10 times they played in November. *NFL Thursday TOY

[Mr. IWS]

Big al


3* akron
3* miami
3* unlv

[Mr. IWS]

ROOT

Chairman- Wyoming
Millionaire- Miami Fl
Money Maker- Patriots

[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns | CFB Total
double-dime bet310 Akron / 309 Buffalo Under 60.5 Bodog
Analysis: I'm playing on the Akron and Buffalo to finish UNDER the total. Both teams have been involved in some shootouts recently and therefore most are expecting the final game at the Rubber Bowl to result in a shootout. Those expectations have provided us with a very generous number to work with, which has already climbed from its opener. I believe that the final score will prove lower than expected and fall beneath that big total.

While both offenses have proven to be capable, neither team's games have averaged as many points as tonight's current over/under line. Akron's games have been high-scoring but have still only averaged 58.6 points. Buffalo's games have been lower-scoring, averaging 54.8, including 52.2 on the road. That's led to the UNDER going 3-1 when the Bulls have played away from Buffalo. The lone one of those four games which did finish above the total, did so barely. That game (vs. Ohio) had an over/under line of 48.5 and finished with 51. Note that both teams have seen the UNDER go 4-1 their last five Thursday night games, which had an over/under line.

The total was 47.5 when the teams played here in 2006. That game slipped below that mark, finishing with 47 points. Last year's meeting, which was at Buffalo, had an over/under line of 48.5, yet the teams combined for only 36 points in a 26-10 Bulls' victory. A closer look at the boxscore shows that the Bulls were somewhat fortunate to score 26 as they only had 280 total yards of offense. Last week's high-scoring game notwithstanding, the UNDER is 12-7 the last 19 times that the Zips were favored. Look for those numbers to improve as this mid-November Rubber Bowl game doesn't end up with the fireworks that most are anticipating. *Blue Chip

[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns | CFB Side
double-dime bet314 UNLV -7.0 (-110) Bodog vs 313 Wyoming
Analysis:
I'm laying the points with UNLV. The Cowboys come off a big upset win at Tennessee. While that result surprised me, I believe that it was a case of the Volunteers coming out flat (instead of fired up) after learning that Coach Fulmer would be leaving at the end of the season. I still don't believe that Wyoming is a good team. Keep in mind that the Cowboys are still a dreadful 3-15-1 ATS their last 19 lined games. Prior to last week's victory, they had lost seven straight road games. Those losses came by an average of 27.7 points and six of them were by greater than a touchdown. Note that this will be the first time that the Cowboys played the second of back to back road games this season. The last time they did so, which was last November, they lost by a score of 50-0.

While both teams have equal 4-6 records, the Rebels have been far stronger offensively. Wyoming is averaging only 11.8 points per game including only five on the road. Meanwhile, UNLV has averaged a respectable 26.4 per game. The fact that UNLV is 6-4 ATS while Wyoming is 2-7-1 ATS shows that the Rebels have been the far more competitive team. While the Rebels are expected to be without QB Omar Clayton, Mike Clausen showed he was more than capable last week. Facing a tough blitzing New Mexico defense, Clausen threw for 203 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions.

Naturally, playing at home favors the Rebels, who I feel are the stronger team to begin with. However, I also feel that the scheduling situation is strongly in their favor. This is a huge game for both teams. However, in addition to playing the second of back to back road games, Wyoming is also coming off one the bigger wins in school history and has its home finale on deck. On the other hand, UNLV is playing it's home finale, while also looking to avenge four straight losses in the series.

UNLV coach Mike Sanford had this to say: "We have two major motivating factors going into Thursday's game with Wyoming. The first one is that this is the second game of our three-game quest to get to six wins and become bowl eligible. The second is that it is also Senior Night." Note that a whopping sixteen seniors will be honored before the game, eight of them starters. Sanford went on to say: "We have a very good senior class. It is a senior class that has led this team very well and we have a lot of respect for them and there's a strong motivation to send our seniors out with a win." I look for a highly motivated effort from the revenge-minded Rebels and I feel that the current number, which has fallen from its opener, provides us with excellent value.

[Mr. IWS]

DrB
NEW ENGLAND (-3.5) 21 NY Jets 18
05:15 PM Pacific Time Thursday, Nov-13 - Stats Matchup
The Patriots may be 6-3, but that record is the result of an extremely easy schedule that is 4 points easier than average. Despite facing an easy schedule the Patriots have averaged just 5.1 yards per play while allowing 5.6 yppl. The Jets have faced a slightly easier schedule of teams, but at least they’ve out-gained those teams 5.6 yppl to 4.9 yppl. New York is better on both sides of the ball than New England and they should win this game if Brett Favre can avoid throwing 2 or more interceptions. Favre has thrown 13 interceptions in 9 games and the Jets are -8 in turnover margin, but he’s not likely to continue throwing picks at that high of a rate (he’s thrown just 1 in the last two games). My math model favors the Jets by 2 points in this game, but New York applies to a very negative 29-76-3 ATS road letdown situation while the Patriots apply to a solid 168-101-8 ATS statistical profile indicator. With the math going one way and the technical analysis going the other, it is probably best to pass this game – although I’d lean with the Jets at +3 ½ points or more.

[Mr. IWS]

NESS

PRIME-TIME DELIGHT:
Buffalo

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Bob Thursday
3 Star Selection
***AKRON (-3.0) 36 Buffalo 25
04:00 PM Pacific, 13-Nov-08
Akron and Buffalo are both 5-4 overall and 3-2 in MAC play, but the Zips are at home, are a slightly better team, and are in a very strong situation. Akron is coming off a couple of solid wins and the Zips apply to a very god 101-38-1 ATS momentum situation while Buffalo applies to a negative 85-186-6 ATS road letdown situation. The record is 13-2 ATS for the home team when those situations both apply to the same game and Akron also applies to a decent 64-32-3 ATS last home game angle. Akron is a good offensive team that has averaged 5.9 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average attack and the Zips should have no trouble carving their way through a soft Buffalo stop unit that has surrendered 6.0 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team. The Bulls are pretty good offensively, rating at 0.1 yppl better than average when star RB James Starks is available (he missed 2 ½ games this season), and they have a 0.4 yppl advantage over an Akron defense that is 0.3 yppl worse than average. However, the Zips have a 1.0 yppl advantage over Buffalo’s defense. The huge edge from the line of scrimmage for Akron is tempered a bit by Buffalo’s advantage in projected turnovers, as Bulls’ quarterback Drew Willy has thrown just 4 interceptions all season while Akron’s Chris Jacquemain has thrown 11 picks. My math model projects a 0.7 turnover edge in favor of Buffalo, but he math still favors Akron by 5 ½ points – so we have some line value to go along with the strong situations. I’ll take Akron in a 3-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less (at -1.15 odds or better) and for 2-Stars up to -4 points.

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' Prime Time Delight (Buffalo/Akron)

Larry hit more than a little speed bump last night, as his 'MAC magic' was nowhere to be found. He lost BOTH MAC games Wednesday night but undeterred, he returns to the MAC tonight with a Prime Time Delight play on Buffalo/Akron, a contest which could determine the East Division title. Any takers?


Buffalo Bulls