11-15-08

[Mr. IWS]

3 Star Selection
New Mexico (-1.0) 31 COLORADO ST. 21
15-Nov-08 11:00 AM Pacific Time
New Mexico lost last week at UNLV, but the Lobos played as I expected they would in out-gaining the Rebels 380 yards at 5.1 yards per play to 260 yards at 4.0 yppl. A negative turnover margin and a blocked punt TD cost us the chance to win that bet, but I’m back on New Mexico this week against a defenseless Rams team that can’t stop the run (5.7 yards per rushing play allowed) or the pass (7.3 yards per pass play allowed) and has been even worse than normal the last two games without their best defender SS Mike Pagnotta. Colorado State has been 1.1 yards per play worse than average overall on defense this season (6.4 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team), but they’ve allowed 7.9 yppl the last two weeks without Pagnotta against BYU and Air Force offensive units that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average defensive unit. New Mexico is 0.4 yppl worse than average offensively, but the Lobos have a good rushing attack (5.1 yprp) and they have been pretty good offensively when they don’t need to depend on throwing the ball as much. New Mexico has faced 4 teams that are poor defending the run (Texas A&M, New Mexico State, San Diego State, and UNLV) and the Lobos have averaged 297 rushing yards at 5.7 yprp in those 4 games while scoring 35 points or more in 3 of them (and averaging 37 points). New Mexico has a 0.7 yppl advantage over Colorado State’s horrid defense even if I don’t adjust for Pagnotta being out, and the Lobos’ fine defense (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team) is better than a Colorado State attack that is 0.2 yppl better than average. I should mention that New Mexico is without starting CB DeAndre Wright, but Wright isn’t having a great season this year and New Mexico allowed just 4.0 yppl last week without him in the lineup. In addition to having an advantage from the line of scrimmage, the Lobos are better in special teams (despite last week’s punt block) and should be favored by 4 points in this game. In addition to the line value, New Mexico applies to a very strong 33-2 ATS subset of a 53-9-1 ATS statistical match-up indicator along with a few other stat angles. The Lobos are also 39-17 ATS in the regular season from game 7 on under coach Rocky Long, including 29-4 ATS in their last 33 late season games when not favored by 3 points or more (2-1 ATS this season). I considered making the Lobos a 4-Star Best Bet but there is a chance that getting eliminated from a possible bowl game last week deflated their spirits a bit. But, there is no evidence that suggests that teams that lose to be eliminated from bowl eligibility are bad bets the next week. In fact, such teams usually rebound when facing another losing team. I’ll take New Mexico in a 3-Star Best Bet at -2 ½ points or better and for 2-Stars at -3 points.

3 Star Selection
AIR FORCE (+5.0) 27 BYU 23
15-Nov-08 12:30 PM Pacific Time
Blowout wins of 59-0 over UCLA and 44-0 over Wyoming early in the season created a situation in which BYU became vastly overrated. The Cougars are 0-6 ATS since that win over Wyoming and I’ll go against BYU in a negative situation today against an Air Force team that is 7-2 ATS this season and 16-5 ATS in two seasons under coach Troy Calhoun. The line on this game actually isn’t that far off, as my math model favors BYU by 2 ½ points, but the Cougars apply to a very negative 2-28-1 ATS subset of an 11-53-2 ATS road letdown situation. Air Force, meanwhile, applies to a very profitable 186-85-6 ATS home momentum situation. BYU is 0-4 ATS on the road this season (all as favorites) while Air Force is 8-1 ATS at home under Calhoun. I’ll take Air Force in a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 ½ points or more and for 2-Stars at +3 points.

3 Star Selection
Oklahoma St. (-16.5) 40 COLORADO 13
15-Nov-08 05:00 PM Pacific Time
Oklahoma State finally failed to cover the spread last week in their blowout loss at Texas Tech (they’re now 8-1 ATS this season), but I expect them to get back on the profitable side of the ledger with an easy win over a below average Colorado team whose offense can’t possibly keep up with the Cowboy’s potent attack. Oklahoma State has averaged 7.1 yards per play this season (against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) and Colorado is just 0.3 yppl better than average defensively and is a bit worse than average defending the run (5.1 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.0 yprp against an average team). The Buffaloes have faced 3 very good rushing teams this season and they allowed West Virginia to run for 311 yards at 6.0 yprp, Florida State to run for 259 yards at 5.6 yprp, and Missouri to run for 190 yards at 5.9 yprp. Colorado’s inability to stop good running teams will hurt them today against an Oklahoma State attack that has averaged 254 rushing yards at 5.8 yprp this season. The Cowboys can also throw it when they need to, as quarterback Zac Robinson is averaging an incredible 9.4 yards per pass play in 9 games against Division 1A foes. Oklahoma State has averaged 41 points per game against Division 1A teams that combine to rate at 0.1 yppl better than average defensively, so they ought to score around 40 points in this game against a Colorado defense that is 0.2 yppl better than average. Colorado is averaging just 15.6 points in their last 8 games and they rate at 1.0 yppl worse than average for the season (4.6 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average team). Coach Hawkins has been splitting snaps at quarterback the last 4 games between his son Cody and freshman Tyler Hansen, who is more of a running threat. Hanson has been horrible when he’s thrown the ball and his good running has been countered by the loss of top back Rodney Stewart, who was averaging a decent 4.7 ypr and his now out for the rest of the season. In 4 games since alternating quarterbacks the Buffaloes are still at 1.0 yppl worse than average (4.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl), but they’re throwing more interceptions since Hansen tends to make the bad decisions that freshman are prone to making (he’s thrown 4 picks on 65 passes). Oklahoma State is only 0.3 yppl better than average defensively (5.7 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average team), but the Buffs have averaged only 15.6 points in their last 8 games against teams that are 0.1 yppl better than average, so I don’t see them scoring more than 17 points in this game. My math model favors Oklahoma State by 21 ½ points and the Cowboys apply to a very good 107-49-2 ATS blowout bounce-back situation this week. In addition to the favorable general situation, coach Mike Gundy’s team is a perfect 10-0 ATS as a favorite of 13 points or more, 16-1 ATS in their last 17 games against unranked teams, and 10-2-1 ATS after a loss. In other words, don’t expect a letdown from the Cowboys, who tend to take care of business against mediocre and bad teams. Colorado, meanwhile, is just 3-16 ATS as an underdog of less than 21 points under coach Hawkins. I’ll take Oklahoma State in a 3-Star Best Bet at -17 points (at -1.10 odds or better) or less and for 2-Stars up to -20 points.

College Strong Opinions

IOWA (-17.5) 34 Purdue 10
15-Nov-08 09:00 AM Pacific Time
I stated last week that Iowa was a much better team than their record suggests and the Hawkeyes proved that with a win over previously unbeaten Penn State. Iowa still appears to be underrated and they’ll destroy a bad Purdue team as long as they aren’t too focused on last week’s win instead of this week’s opponent. Conference home favorites of more than 3 points actually have a winning point spread record after beating unbeaten conference opponents this late in the season, so there is no history that suggests the Hawkeyes will suffer a letdown. A normal effort by Iowa in this game will result in a dominating victory over a Purdue team with a banged up offensive line, an ineffective backup quarterback at the helm and a defense that doesn’t defend the run well. Purdue’s offense has averaged only 4.8 yards per play for the season and that unit is 0.5 yards per play worse than average after accounting for the opposing defensive units that they’ve faced. The Boilermakers’ attack is even worse with Justin Siller filling in for injured starting quarterback Curtis Painter, as Siller has averaged a pathetic 4.1 yards per pass play on 89 pass plays (against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average QB). Siller’s running (198 yards at 4.7 yards per rushing play) isn’t adding anything to the offense that averages 4.7 yprp as a team and I don’t see the Boilermakers getting many scoring opportunities against a dominating Iowa defense that has yielded just 4.6 yppl to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defense. That unit has shut down sub-par offensive units this season while Purdue has scored a total of just 9 points in two other games against very good defensive teams Ohio State and Penn State – and that was with Painter at quarterback. The Boilermakers have actually scored 7 points or fewer in 4 of their last 6 games and could very well be in single digits in this game too. Purdue’s defense has been pretty good overall (0.2 yppl better than average), but the Boilermakers have been worse than average defending the run (5.2 yprp allowed to teams that would combine to average 4.9 yprp against an average team), which is great news for Iowa’s star running back Shonn Greene, who is the only back in the nation to rush for 100 yards or more in every game and is averaging a stellar 6.1 ypr for the season. Iowa’s offense has been better since Ricky Stanzi became the full time quarterback and I rate the Hawkeyes’ attack at 0.7 yppl better than average with Stanzi at quarterback. Iowa has a solid edge when they have the ball and a huge edge when Purdue has possession. Iowa also has a pretty solid edge in special teams and my math favors the Hawkeyes by 24 points in this game. Iowa has not been a great play as a big favorite in recent years, especially after a victory, as they are just 3-12 ATS as a favorite of more than 7 points following a victory since 2004, but Iowa is also 17-3 ATS as a home favorite of more than 9 points against a team at .500 or less under coach Ferentz (although 2-3 ATS recently). I’ll resist making Iowa a Best Bet here due to a possible letdown based on their team history, but I’ll consider Iowa a Strong Opinion at -19 or less and I’d take Iowa in a 2-Star Best Bet at -16 or less.

KANSAS ST. (+7.0) 34 Nebraska 35
15-Nov-08 12:30 PM Pacific Time
There really isn’t much of a difference between Nebraska and Kansas State, as both teams are good on offense and below average defensively. The difference between Nebraska’s 6-4 record and Kansas State’s 4-6 record is a Cornhuskers’ schedule that has had them play 7 of their 10 games at home (while Kansas State has played 5 home games and 5 road games). Nebraska has averaged 6.5 yards per play this season and rates at 1.3 yppl better than average after accounting for the strength of their opponent’s defense and site of each game. Kansas State rates at 0.3 yppl worse than average defensively in 6 games since starting S Gary Chandler was suspended, allowing 6.5 yppl to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 6.2 yppl against an average team. The Wildcats are 0.6 yppl better than average offensively with Josh Freeman behind center and they have a solid advantage over a Cornhuskers’ defense that has been 0.6 yppl worse than average (6.2 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average team) in 9 games since losing star DE Barry Turner to a season ending injury in week 1. Nebraska’s defense will probably be a bit worse without top LB Cody Glenn, who has been suspended indefinitely (although I won’t adjust for that until they prove to be worse without him). So, Nebraska has a 1.6 yppl advantage when they have the ball while Kansas State has a 1.2 yppl advantage when they’re on offense. Most of that difference is made up by Kansas State being at home and my math model projects 477 total yards for Nebraska and 467 total yards for Kansas State. Kansas State has a slight edge in projected turnover and the Wildcats have an edge in special teams, as they’ve had 5 special teams touchdowns this season. Overall, these teams are about the same and Kansas State is at home, so I can certainly see the Wildcats being favored in this game. The reason they are not favored is because Nebraska’s rating based on score differential is better. However, using a model that compensates and adjusts point differentials still only favors Nebraska by 2 points in this game. I’d be on Kansas State in a Best Bet here if not for a 183-96-8 ATS statistical match-up indicator that favors Nebraska as long as they are -7 or less. That angle obviously barely applies since the line on this game is 7 points and I’ll consider Kansas State a Strong Opinion at +6 or more and I’d take Kansas State in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 ½ points or more (at -115 odds or better).

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' LEGEND Play-CFB: 10-3 since '05

A few years back, Larry began releasing his LEGEND plays (previously reserved for only his personal clients) on the net. During CFB's regular season, these exclusive plays are 10-3 or 76.9% ATS since '05. That's just 13 overall plays, in a span of three-plus seasons. Larry's LEGEND are rare but "well worth the wait!" Your move!


NOTRE DAME

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

Saturday
40 Dime Oregon State- (if your sports book has a 3-1/2, buy the half point and lay just 3 points).

15 Dime Teaser - Wisconsin and Air Force



FREE - Florida St

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS
MAIN EVENT BIG 12 GAME OF MONTH

I'm taking the points with KANSAS STATE. Recent results have given us excellent value with the home underdogs here. The Huskers certainly come in as the hotter team. That's because they've won Wildcats have lost four straight. However, a closer look shows that three of those games came on the road and that the lone home game during that stretch was against Oklahoma, one of the top teams in the entire country. Overall, they're 3-2 at home and the other loss here came against Texas Tech, a team which is also among the best in the country. I believe that this game will mean more to the Wildcats. I say this for several reasons. The obvious one is that they are at home and really want to snap their losing streak. However, there's also the matter of last year's game when the Huskers embarrassed them 73-31 at Lincoln. As for the Huskers, they're ripe for a letdown after last week's big 'revenge' win over Kansas, which happened to make them bowl eligible. I call that a 'revenge win' as the Jayhawks had routed the Huskers by a 76-39 score last year. Speaking of revenge, after a bye week next week, the Huskers face Colorado in their home finale. Nebraska fans will recall that the rival Buffaloes eliminated them from bowl contention, so that too is a 'revenge' game. In other words, off an extremely meaningful game and with another extremely meaningful game on deck, I feel that it will be easy to overlook the Wildcats. Note that Nebraska is just 3-9 its last 12 road games and that two of those wins came by three points or less. While the Huskers won here in 2006, they had lost their previous four trips here. While many people feel that the Wildcats have quit, I really believe that they will rise to the occasion and play hard for Coach Prince here. Senior defensive end Ian Campbell had this to say about the professionalism that Prince brings to the table: "He's been talking about (professionalism) and preaching about that since he came here Whether it has affected everybody or not, it has affected quite a few of the guys. Everybody's grades have dramatically improved. As far as I understand, our practices are conducted exactly how practices are in the NFL." While I'll gladly take the points, I look for a highly inspired effort from the Wildcats and for them to score the outright victory. *big 12 GOM

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS
BLOWOUT GAME OF WEEK

I'm laying the points with KENTUCKY. Last week, I played on Kentucky as a medium-sized underdog vs. a good Georgia team. The Wildcats didn't quite pull off the upset but they did play very well and earned the cover. Now they take a big step down in class to face a Vanderbilt team which they have dominated recently and which is currently really struggling. The Commodores got off to a great start this season. However, things have taken a dramatic downturn in recent weeks, as they've now lost four straight games. I played against them at Mississippi State and they were upset as small favorites. That loss can be excused and their losses vs. Georgia and Florida certainly cane be. However, their recent home loss to Duke shows that the Commodores really are in bad shape at the moment. Keep in mind that this team was expected to finish last in the SEC, so the recent slump isn't all that surprising. Its true that the Commodores need one more win to become bowl eligible and therefore this is a big game for them. While that has helped keep the line very reasonable, just because the Commodores need to win doesn't mean that they will. Any longtime Vandy fan can tell you that! Besides, getting that sixth win at home against instate rival Tennessee would be even sweeter. Regardless, with it being Senior Day and Kentucky's home finale, their no shortage of motivation on the home side either. The Wildcats are 4-0 SU/ATS the last four meetings in the series. That includes a 7-point win at Vanderbilt last season and a 12 point win here at Kentucky in 2006. Looking back further and we find the Wildcats at 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS the last 12 series meetings. Including last week's results, the Commodores are now 0-8 SU and 2-6 ATS in November since the start of the 2006 season. On the other hand, Kentucky is now 6-3 ATS and 5-4 SU in November during the same stretch. Early indications are that the weather may be nasty and that wouldn't hurt Kentucky's feelings. Either way, I look for the Wildcats to deliver a convincing victory on ESPN 2. *Blowout GOW

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

I'm taking the points with AUBURN. I successfully played against Georgia last week. The Bulldogs won but didn't cover at Kentucky. Once again, I believe that the Bulldogs are over- valued and playing in a difficult situation. That's because this is their second straight road game and they still figure to be smarting from their blowout loss at Florida before that. That was at Jacksonville. Prior to that, the Bulldogs played at LSU. That makes it four straight games that they've played away from home. Additionally, the Bulldogs should encounter an extremely motivated Auburn team. For starters, the Tigers hate the Bulldogs and are looking to get some payback from last year's loss. They're also looking to save their coach's job. Most importantly, this is their home finale and the Tigers know that they need a victory here in order to become bowl eligible. If not, they're going to have to win at Alabama next week, which figures to be an even tougher task. For all their struggles, the Tigers are still a talented team and they're still allowing only 16 points per game. Playing a huge game vs. a hated rival, look for the Tigers to step up with their best game of the season.

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS
3 PACK
BIG 10 GAME OF WEEK

I'm taking the points with ILLINOIS. As you probably remember, the Illini won outright at Columbus last season. That has most expecting the revenge-minded Buckeyes to deliver a blowout win. I expect the Illini to give them everything they can handle once again though. The Illini have covered eight of their last 12 as home dogs and they've also gone 9-2 their last 11 home games overall. (Neither loss came by greater than 10 points.) The last three series meetings in this series, which were played here Champaign, were ALL decided by seven points or less. Ohio State won all three of those games but the victories came by an average of only five points and the Illinois were 3-0 ATS. The Illini, who are playing their home finale, still need a win to become bowl eligible. Look for them to deliver a huge effort, improving to 10-4 ATS the last 14 times they were getting points. *Big 10 GOW

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS
3 PACK

I'm taking the points with KANSAS. With a #4 ranking, the Longhorns are obviously a very strong team. That being said, I feel that this line is too high. I believe that the Jayhawks, who entered the season ranked #14 in the country, are better than the public believes and that they are currently under-valued. Yes, the Jayhawks have four losses. However, three of those losses came on the road and none came by more than two touchdowns. Their lone home loss came vs. Texas Tech and the Red Raiders have defeated every team they have faced, including Texas, thus far. The Longhorns have plenty of motivation, as they're trying to improve their position in the polls. The Jayhawks should also be extremely motivated though. For starters, they still have an outside shot at representing the North in the Conference Championship game. While that's a longshot, it still gives them something meaningful to play for. That's not all though. This is the Jayhawks' home finale - note that they're 8-3 their last 11 home finales. Additionally, the Jayhawks still haven't forgotten the last two meetings in this series. In 2005, they were destroyed at Texas. In 2004, in the most recent meeting here at Kansas, coach Mangino alleged after the game that an offensive pass interference call late in the game (against the Jayhawks) was the result of referees conspiring to keep the Longhorns alive in the BCS mix. Obviously, Mangino hasn't forgotten either of those games and he'd like nothing more than to have his team deliver a serious blow to the Longhorns. The Jayhawks have been terrific here the past few years and the loss to the Red Raiders was their first double-digit defeat here during that span. Look for them to bounce back and give a huge effort, improving to 8-3 ATS the last 11 times they were getting points.

[Mr. IWS]

BIG AL

Early releases so far.

3* houston
3* southern miss
3* Indiana
1* air force
1* oregon
1* UTEP
1* Purdue

[Mr. IWS]

DR BOB

NCAAB

Saturday Daytime College Opinion
NORTH CAROLINA (-30 1/2) over Penn
North Carolina is 47-20 ATS at home under coach Roy Williams and the loaded Tarheels aren't shy about running up the score. Non-conference opponents have had an even tougher time competing in Chapel Hill, as the Tarheels are
24-4 ATS as a home favorite of 2 points or more (although just 3-2 ATS favored by 30 points or more). I'll lean with North Carolina based on their strong home court and incredible depth of talent, which is likely to extend the lead in garbage time.

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness MWC 20 *

BYU Cougars v/s Air Force Falcons 11/15/2008 3:30:00 pm Predicted Winner: BYU Cougars

I've been a big fan of Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun. He took over for the legendary Fisher DeBerry last year and led the Falcons to a 9-4 season, which included the school's first bowl appearance since 2002. DeBerry had an amazing career at Air Force with just five losing seasons in his 23 years, taking the Falcons to 12 bowl games. However, THREE of those five losing seasons came in his final three seasons (2004-06), when the Falcons went just 13-21. The Falcons are again headed to a bowl, as the Falcons enter this game 8-2 but have two tough games remaining in '08 (this game at home vs BYU and on Nov 22 at TCU). The Cougars entered the '08 season with the nation's longest active winning streak (10 straight) and extended it to 16 in a row before losing at TCU on October 16. The Cougars have won all three games since that loss but while they've averaged 42.7 PPG during that stretch, they are 0-3 ATS. In fact, BYU takes a six-game ATS losing streak into this game. These teams are complete opposites offensively, as BYU wins with its passing game and Air Force wins with its ground game. BYU QB Max Hall has completed 71.1 percent of his passes, averaging 307 YPG through the air with 32 TDs and just seven INTs. Air Force ranks 4th in the nation in rushing yards (275.4 YPG) but only Navy and Army have averaged fewer yards through the air than the Falcons' average of 85.0 YPG. Both schools have played excellent defense this year, with BYU allowing 18.2 PPG (19th in the nation) and Air force allowing 17.3 (17th). In the final analysis though, these teams are NOT equals. Air Force has feasted on the bottom rung of MWC teams, with its five conference wins coming over teams with the combined records of 17-34 (.333). Air Force's other three wins have come over Southern Utah, a 5-4 Houston team and 3-7 Army. While Calhoun has led his team to a 9-2 SU mark at home (8-1 ATS), his only victory over a winning team last year came vs TCU. Air Force is 0-2 SU at home TY against teams with winning records, Utah and Navy. Bronco Mendenhall is in his fourth year at BYU. After a 6-6 first season, he's had back-to-back 11-2 seasons, ending each year with a bowl win. BYU is 9-1 this year with this game and a trip to Utah coming up next Saturday. A win here by BYU, keeps its slim hopes of a BCS bowl bid alive (would also need to beat Utah next Saturday and hope that Boise State and maybe even Ball Sate loses). Mendenhall has led his team to three straight wins over Air Force since taking over at BYU and none of the games have been close. BYU won at home in 2005 by the score of 62-41, at Colorado Springs in 2006 by 33-14 and back in Provo last year, 31-6. The last two seasons, Air Force's option attack has been held to 161.5 YPG on the ground, while averaging 4.0 YPC. Remember, Air Force averaged 229 YPG in 2006 and 300 YPG in 2007 on the ground. Air Force freshman QB Tim Jefferson is 5-0 since becoming the team's starter but BYU (and especially head coach Mendenhall) knows how to beat Air Force. BYU is 31-5 SU since the beginning of 2006 and just FIVE of those wins have come by less than a TD. Lay this reasonable number with the Cougars.

MWC Game of the Year 20* BYU.

[Mr. IWS]

Root

Chair - Arizona
Mill - Maryland
Money Maker - Aub
No Limit - Houst
Insider - Colorado
Bill - Kansas




Hoops:

Chair - Cal Irvine
Mill - Nc St

[Mr. IWS]

ppp
5 fla st
3 mich, nev, af, w mich, col st

[Mr. IWS]

Sprietzer

5* s miss
4* nc st
tko ohio st s car s diego st nevada
ko kentucky wisconsin
Reply With Quote

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al added:
3* Northern Iowa (cbb)
3* Indiana Pacers (nba)

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al's 10 Dime Club

Oregon - 6

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' Bailout Game of the Month (need that ONE late CFB game?)
My 15* Bailout Game of the Month is on Florida State at 8:00 ET. Just like Joe Pa at Penn State, Bobby Bowden's "rep" has lost some luster the last few seasons at Florida State. The Seminoles entered '08 off consecutive 7-6 seasons but many felt as if FSU had a chance at 10 wins this year. The schedule-maker had them playing seven home games with another game in Jacksonville against Colorado. The Seminoles have more than lived up to expectations, entering this game 7-2, as a rushing attack which had all but disappeared the last three seasons (averaged 106.3 YPG), has blossomed. Antone Smith leads the way with 632 yards (5.0 YPC) on the year with 13 TDs plus freshman Jermaine Thomas has added 437 (8.4 YPC), with 224 coming over the last two games on just 20 carries (11.2 per). As a team, FSU is averaging 205.2 YPG and 5.3 YPC (what an improvement!). Christian Ponder is getting better and better at the QB position, as six of his eight INTs this year came in a three-game stretch in late September and early October. He's had just two of 108 passes intercepted over the last four games. The Seminoles are averaging 35.9 PPG this year, up from just 23.3 last season. As always, the FSU defense is superb, allowing 19.3 PPG and 256.6 YPG (ranks 5th). Boston College can match FSU on the defensive side of the ball, allowing 16.9 PPG and 276.7 YPG (9th). Both teams stuff the run, BC allowing 101.8 YPG (3.2 per) and FSU 102.9 YPG (3.2 per). However, unlike FSU, BC's offense doesn't run the ball nearly as well, averaging 151.8 YPG (4.2). The last three years, BC has had the tandem of Whitworth and Callender in the backfield but this year it's only Harris, who leads the team with a modest 531 yards. Matt Ryan (4,507 yards LY with 31 TDs) is in Atlanta playing for the Falcons this year and it's painfully obvious that Chris Crane is no Ryan. He's completing just 54.9 percent for 1,506 yards with nine TDs and 12 INTs. He's had four multiple-interception games, with three each against UCF, Va Tech and North Carolina. In his last two games, he's gone 18-of-39 for 116 yards (1 TD / 0 INTs) in a loss to Clemson and 9-of-22 for 789 yards (1 TD / 0 INTs) in a 17-0 win over Notre Dame game. BC made it six straight wins over Notre Dame last Saturday night but if not for a 5-0 TO advantage, the Eagles would not have won. I had BC in that game and commented how the Eagles shouldn't have much trouble against ND's defense, as it lacked the speed and quickness of ACC opponents like Ga Tech, North Carolina, Clemson and Va Tech but it did. It should also be noted that BC lost to the first three schools on that list, while only edging Va Tech, 28-23. Getting back to FSU, Bowden's team is 7-2, losing only 12-3 to Wake, while turning the ball over seven times, and 31-28 at Ga Tech, when RB Marcus Sims fumbled into the end zone in the closing seconds. BC's win over ND made them bowl-eligible once again (Eagles have won eight consecutive bowl games, the longest active streak in the nation), while for FSU its Homecoming plus the team is still very much alive for a spot in the ACC title game. The Seminoles are back and BC is overrated. Bailout Game of the Month 15* Florida State.

Good Luck...Larry

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness Full Saturday Card

Legend Play: Notre Dame Pending

Larry Ness' 20* MWC Game of the Year

BYU

Larry Ness' Bailout GOW (late TV game)

Florida State

Larry Ness' Weekend Wipeout Winner-NBA

Atlanta Hawks

Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-CBB (1st TY)

UNLV

Larry Ness' CBB 'Perfect Storm' (1st TY)

Wright State

[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns -NBA
Clippers
Indiana

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Spreitzer - Scott's CFB CONF ODDSMAKER BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR!

Colorado St.