11-17-08

[Mr. IWS]

Jim Feist

(503) PHOENIX SUNS
(504) UTAH JAZZ
Take "Under"
Phoenix just went 2 straight games under the total last week. They are not the all out run and gun team of the last few years, with veterans like Shaq and Grant Hill, playing a slower tempo at times. Utah is on a 1-4 SU/ATS run because of injuries. In the loss to Cleveland, 105-93, shorthanded again, the Jazz played without Deron Williams (ankle), Andrei Kirilenko (finger), Matt Harpring (ankle) and Memo Okur, who remains in Turkey with his critically ill father. They come home from a 5-game road trip and offense hasn't hit 100 in 5 straight. All of which makes this total too high; Play the Suns/Jazz under the total.

[Mr. IWS]

DOC

3* Bills

[Mr. IWS]

Dave Cokin

(501) HOUSTON ROCKETS
(502) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER

Take "(502) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER"

[Mr. IWS]

SIXTH SENSE

BUFFALO –5 Cleveland 42

Browns lost a close game at home to Denver last week but their defense was dominated by Denver. They allowed Denver to gain 4.4ypr, 10.3 yps and 7.9yps. The Browns did gain 5.5ypr, 6.8yps and 6.2yppl against a bad Denver defense but those numbers are about average when you consider how bad Denver’s defense is. Buffalo lost at New England and were never really in the game. They were out gained 4.7yppl to 3.9yppl, including getting out passed 6.5yps against 4.3yps. Cleveland averages 4.9yppl against 4.9yppl and allows 4.7ypr against 4.2ypr, 7.2yps against 6.0yps and 5.9yppl against 5.2yppl. Buffalo averages just 3.6ypr against 4.1ypr and 5.3yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow just 3.7ypr against 4.1ypr and 5.1yppl against 5.2yppl. Buffalo qualifies in my turnover table, which is 390-249-18. Cleveland qualifies in a contrary situation, which is 133-87-5. Numbers favor Buffalo by six points and predict about 40 points. I was a little surprised to see such a low predicted score. This would seem like a good opportunity for Buffalo to get their offense going. If they can’t get it going here it will be a bad sign for the rest of the season for the Bills. BUFFALO 23 CLEVELAND 17

[Mr. IWS]

Lenny Del Genio

10* Play on Over Phoenix/Utah at 9:05 ET. Lenny spent years working on an NBA "totals system" and began using it in January ‘07 on the net, with great success. It's based on numerous factors, some of them listed here. Anticipated pace and style of both teams' play. Days of rest for teams or lack of it. Number of points scored by starters as compared to subs in recent outings (plus season-long averages). It also factors in point and rebounding differentials of the two teams. With all these factors (and many more), it's not possible to provide Lenny's "typical analysis" with his NBA totals selections. However, after the last two year's success, he anticipates another banner year. Play are rated 10* (Game of Day), 15* (Game of Week), 20* (Game of Month) and some rare 25* plays. Good luck. Take Over Phoenix/Utah (10*). Good luck - Lenny Del Genio

Play on: Phoenix

[Mr. IWS]

John Ryan
Title: Ryan's 10* MNF Titan Game of the Month w/5* Total
Promo: Ryan looks to rebound with a poor result Sunday (won 7* Total, won 3* side, lost 15* Jax and 10* Wash) w/ this 10* play for the MNF and a bonus 5* TotalRemember that Ryan’s 10* plays hits at a very high percentage and this one reinforced by angles hitting 84% for an 80-15 mark. Pay when the 10* wins.

Game: Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills Nov 17 2008 8:35PM
Prediction: Buffalo Bills
Reason: Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Buffalo – AiS shows an 86% probability that Buffalo will win this game by 6 or more points. AiS also shows a 90% probability that Buffalo will get 2 or more turnovers in this game. Note that Buffalo is 12-0 ATS over the past 3 seasons when their defense forces 2 turnovers. AiS also shows an 82% probability that Buffalo will score a minimum of 22 points. Note that Buffalo is 5-1 ATS when they score 22 to 28 points over the past 3 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 31-10 ATS for 76% since 2002. Play against road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games. Buffalo is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons; 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) versus terrible defensive teams allowing >=6 yards/play since 1992. Jauron is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season. Buffalo’s recent losing slide has been directly attributed to their lack of a successful running game. They have gained just 90 yards in the past 2 games, but they will execute at a far higher level against Cleveland. For those fantasy players, Marshawn Lynch will get his first 100 yards rushing game in this game. Cleveland ranks 26th against the run allowing 145 YPG. If Cleveland brings an 8 man front then look for play action pass routes to be exploited against man coverage. Cleveland’s corners (McDonald and Wright) were destroyed by Denver’s Cutler and in man coverage they will be used again and again. Take Buffalo.

Ai Simulator 5* graded play on UNDER Buffalo/Cleveland – AiS shows a 79% probability that 40 or fewer points will be scored in this game. AiS also shows an 85% that Cleveland will not gain more than 4 yards per rush. Note that Cleveland is 7-1 under in this role over the past 3 seasons and 2-0 under this season. Cleveland also is projected to have an 87% probability that they will not gain more than 200 net passing yards. Note that in this role Cleveland is 1-0 UNDER this season, 6-3 UNDER the past 3 seasons, and 43-20 UNDER since 1992 in this role. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 34-11 UNDER for 76% ATS since 1983. Play under with any team against the total after being outgained by 100 or more total yards 2 consecutive games facing an opponent after being outgained by 150+ total yards in their previous game.

[Mr. IWS]

November 17 2008
Frank Patron 7500 Unit Mnf Lock

Frank Patron

7500 Unit Mnf Lock

Buffalo Bills -5

[Mr. IWS]

RON RAYMOND'S 5* NHL PRIVATE PLAYERS BEST BET
Pick # 1 Boston Bruins (-130)

[Mr. IWS]

Akmens Full Card

Cbb

10* Brown +13

10* St Marys Under 137


Nba

10* Spurs +2.5


Nfl

10* Bills Under 40.5

Nhl

Pass

[Mr. IWS]

Billy Coleman

CBB: 4* Oklahoma St (-11) 3* Toledo (+20) 3* Boston College (-14)

NHL: Totals Game of the Month: 5* Vancouver (over 5)

[Mr. IWS]

Bob Balfe

NFL Football
Bills/Browns Under 41.5
Cleveland looks like a desperate team making as they made the switch to Brady Quinn. Quinn looked good last week, but the Browns could not spot Denver on defense. This week the Browns should have it a little easier as the Bills are thin at QB and weather should be a factor tonight. Cleveland will be without their fullback Vickers and that is a big deal for picking up the blitz and pass protection for a young QB on the road. This Cleveland offense has a ton of talent, but I do not expect Quinn to have a lot of time tonight. Last year both teams played to a 8-0 final in Cleveland. That game has weather issues also. Most of the MNF Games have gone over this year and this is a perfect spot for one to stay under. Let's look for a low scoring game. Take the Under.

College Football
No plays today.

NBA Basketball
Thunder +8.5 over Rockets

NCAA Basketball
Fordham +21 over Villanova

[Mr. IWS]

kelsos

3 UnitsBrowns/Bills UNDER 40½ Points
8:30 PM -- Ralph Wilson Stadium
38 or less points
TV: ESPN Weather in Buffalo: 50% chance of snow showers, game-time temperature of 27 degrees, 80% relative humidity and wind out of the NNW at 6 mph. Comments: The weather will play an important role in keeping the scoring low in this one.
Mostly cloudy with a 40-percent chance of snow. Winds blowing from the West at 10-20 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 35.

[Mr. IWS]

ATS Pro FB 11/17 Lock Club
3 units Browns +5.5

[Mr. IWS]

The Hammer Guaranteed Selections
Date: Monday, November 17, 2008
$25.00 Guaranteed: You can get the Hammers "PRIVATE INVESTORS CLUB" WINNER tonight in College Basketball for just $25! We were 59-29 in College Hoops last season! The P.I.C. Selections go to the Hammers private members only and Exclusive to YouWinNow.com. As always you are guaranteed to win or you will not be charged! Do Not miss out on this easy winner! WE ARE ON A 67-36 RUN! 11/17/2008

PRIVATE INVESTORS CLUB HOOPS WINNER
515 Miami Ohio +12.5 7:00 EST

[Mr. IWS]

Kelso Monday night FB
35 unit- Bills -5

[Mr. IWS]

Rocketman NHL


Edmonton +190

[Mr. IWS]

ATS Lock Club
4 Cal Santa Barbara -3.5
3 Toledo +19.5

ATS Financial Package
3 Over 40.5 Cle/Buff
3 Oklahoma St -12
3 Troy +10

[Mr. IWS]

seabass

50* buff

100* steam play suns/jazz under

[Mr. IWS]

atslocks.com

Browns @ Bills Over/Under 41: Under 41 (15 unit play)

Miami (OH) +13 @ Pittsburgh: Miami (OH) +13 (5 unit play)

Fresno St @ St. Mary's (CA) -22: St. Mary's (CA) -22 (10 unit play)

Phoenix Suns @ Utah Jazz Over/Under 196.5: Under (Free Pick)

[Mr. IWS]

DOC
COLLEGE BASKETBALL

3 Unit Play. #518 Take Central Michigan over Missouri State (7:00 pm) Rose Arena is the sight of this mid-major match-up between the Bears and Chippewas. The Bears have a new coach in Cuonzo Martin and it will take some time to adjust to his new style of offense. This team was terrible on the road last year going 2-11 and definitely should not be favored in this game against Central Michigan. The Chippewas are coming off a victory against Princeton on the road and will take care of business on Monday. The Missouri Valley Conference is overrated and we will collect big in the offense season going against them.

[Mr. IWS]

GREG PRICE
MONDAY GAME OF YEAR
cleveland browns

[Mr. IWS]

Seabass

NBA
50* LA/San Antonio over

NCAAB
20* Cornell
20* UMass
50* Utah St
50* Oklahoma St
NHL
50*OTTAWA
50*ISLANDERS

[Mr. IWS]

NSA 20* is Bills

[Mr. IWS]

special K- Villanova

[Mr. IWS]

Stan Sharp MNF

Under 40 -110

Double Dime