11-17-08

[Mr. IWS]

::middles::

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

Monday
20 Dime Browns



FREE - Under Browns/Bills

[Mr. IWS]

LARRY NESS MONDAY


Larry Ness' Underdog of the Day-CBB

"Something old, something new, something borrowed, something blue." Well those familiar with Larry (especially any ex-girlfriends), know he hasn't even come close to marriage. However, even this 25-year vet is up for the "something new" part of that rhyme. Join Larry each day (NBA or CBB) for his Underdog of the Day, starting tonight in CBB!

UMASS



Larry Ness' Tourney GOW (1-0 w/GOW plays)

Over the years, Larry's had some memorable runs with his Game of the Week plays in all the daily sports. He opened the new college hoops season with a GOW winner last Tuesday on Southern Illinois and looks to "jump start" the new week with his Tourney Game of the Week, tonight. Get it now and with this 25-year vet.


ST.JOHN'S

BIG AL

Our complimentary selection for Monday, November 17 is:

LA Clippers -2 over San Antone Spurs

Big Al Mcmordie

San Antonio Spurs vs. Los Angeles Clippers (NBA) -
Play: Point Spread: -2/-107 Los Angeles Clippers

At 10:35 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over San Antonio. Last night, the Spurs went into Arco Arena and upset Sacramento 90-88. Can Tim Duncan & Co. make it two straight road wins (and three in a row, overall)? According to my database, it's a longshot, as the Spurs are 21-42 their last 63 when playing without rest, including 8-27 ATS vs. a foe off a straight-up loss, and then 0-11 ATS their last 11 if that foe (off a loss) is also rested. Take the Clippers.

Spreitzer 25*- Utah State

[Mr. IWS]

root
chairman cleve
mill pitt
money maker arz

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS
COLLEGE BASKETBALL

I'm laying the points with SIENA. Don't be fooled by Boise State's 1-0 record. The Broncos' victory came against Pacific University, a member of the Northwest Conference in Division III out of Oregon. It was good for them to get a win as now the Broncos take a major step up in class to take on a strong Siena squad. You may recall that the Saints made it all to the NCAA Tournament last season and that they crushed #19 Vanderbilt 83-62 when they got there before eventually losing to Villanova in the next round. The Saints are expected to finish first in the MAAC once again as they bring back senior guard Kenny Hasbrouck. Vanderbilt fans will remember that game as Hasbrouck dropped 30 points on them in that beating last March. Don't be surprised if Kenny Hasbrouck finishes as the Conference Player of the Year. The Saints have a lot more than that though. They've also got another pair of top tier MAAC players in Edwin Ubiles and Alex Franklin. Ubiles made the All-MAAC Tourney Team and was also a First-Team All-MAAC selection for the season. Franklin was a Second-Team All-MAAC performer. The Saints' talented trio averaged a whopping 48.2 combined points last season. While the Saints bring back plenty of firepower, the Broncos are very inexperienced. In fact, Anthony Thomas is the only returning starter. While Thomas had plenty of assists last season, he only averaged 8.5 points per game. That means that the Broncos have lost almost all their offense from last year. That's going to make it tough to compete with a Siena team which has big ideas again this season. The Saints crushed the Broncos 93-70 at Boise State last season and I expect them to win convincingly again. *Personal Favorite

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS
NBA

I'm taking the points with OKLAHOMA CITY. As you know, the Rockets are the stronger team in this matchup. However, I believe that this will prove to be a difficult scheduling spot for them and that the line is too high. The Rockets are coming off a stretch of really "big games." They recently wrapped up a 5-game road trip with the last three of those games coming against the Lakers, Suns and Spurs. That was followed by a brief trip home to host New Orleans. Now it's back on the road for just a single game before returning home to host instate rival Dallas, before heading East on a 3-game trip. The point that I am trying to make is that it may be easy for them to overlook the lowly Thunder, a team which they have already beaten this season and which they have dominated for years. On the other hand, the Thunder should be extremely motivated here. For starters, this will be the first "rematch" that they've had with an opponent and, as already mentioned, the Rockets won when the teams met in Houston. A closer look shows that the Thunder covered the spread in that game and actually outscored the Rockets by a 48-32 count in the paint. The Rockets had a big advantage at the free throw line, where they went a sparkling 27 of 31, and they aren't as likely to have such a big advantage in that area on the road. Oklahoma City coach P.J. Carlesimo was pleased with his team's effort that night and commented: "I think we played well enough to beat a lot of teams tonight but not Houston in Houston." I look for another big effort from the Thunder and for them to improve to 4-0 ATS on the season when coming off a game in which they scored 85 points or less. *best bet

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS
NBA

I'm playing on the LA CLIPPERS. The Clippers are off to another tough start and now they face a team which has always given them trouble. That being said, the Clippers are more talented than their record indicates and these aren't the same Spurs that we've seen in recent years. Indeed, San Antonio is currently playing without BOTH Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili. Yes, the Spurs are off back to back wins. However, tonight they'll be playing their second of back to back games, after playing a hard-fought game at Sacramento last night. Back to back games have long been a problem for this team and that figures to remain true with Parker and Ginobili out of the lineup. The Spurs are already 0-2 ATS when playing the second of back to back games this season. Looking back further and we find the Spurs at a money-burning 5-13 ATS the last 18 times they played the second of back to back games and at 14-24 ATS in that situation since the start of the 2006 season. It's also worth noting that the Spurs are an ugly 6-13 ATS as road underdogs of three points or less during that stretch. The Clippers played 17 of their next 26 games on the road and desperately need a win this evening. Look for them to play their best game of the season and earn a rare victory in this series. *Annihilator

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS
MONDAY TOTAL OF MONTH

I'm playing on the Bills and Browns to finish UNDER the total. We've seen an awful lot of high-scoring games played on Monday nights this season. On a cold night at Buffalo, I expect tonight's game to prove to be the lowest-scoring of the bunch thus far. The Bills have struggled to score points of late. They've managed only 43 points the past three which, which is an average of only 14.33 per game. During that stretch, they've managed to average only 266 yards of offense per game. Not surprisingly, the UNDER has gone 3-0-1 their past four games. As the Bills are off three straight division losses, it's worth noting that the UNDER is 5-1-1 the last seven times the Bills were coming off back to back losses and 6-1-1 the last eight times they were coming off a loss vs. a division rival. The Bills defense has been solid all season, particularly here at Buffalo. In four games here, opponents are averaging only 18.2 points and 264.7 yards of offense. While the Browns defense hasn't been very good recently, I do expect the Cleveland defenders to play with a chip on their shoulder tonight. That's because the Browns have blown a couple of late leads recently and the offensive players have been pointing fingers at the defense. Note that Cleveland's defensive numbers are actually very respectable on the road this season. In fact, in their four road games, the Browns have allowed an average of just 17.7 points. They've only scored an average of 16 points in those games though, while managing an average of a mere 243 yards of offense in those games. Not surprisingly, the UNDER is 3-1 in their four road games. The Bills have seen the UNDER go 17-8 the last 25 times that they played a game with an over/under line in the 35.5 to 42 range. That includes last year's meeting with the Browns. You may recall that December game. The over/under line was 37, yet the teams combined for a mere eight points, an 8-0 victory by the Browns. Look for tonight's game to again prove much lower-scoring than most are expecting. *MNF TOM

[Mr. IWS]

DR BOB

3 Star Selection
***CENTRAL MICHIGAN (-1.5) over Missouri State 04:00 PM Pacific - Rotation 518 Missouri State has been pretty good team in recent years, but that will change this season without stars Dale Lamberth and Deven Mitchell, who were
#1 and #2 on the team in both scoring and rebounding last season. More important is the fact that those two combined for 50.9% shooting while the rest of the team combined to shoot just 41.2% from the floor. In other words, there doesn't appear to be anyone capable of picking up the scoring slack with Lamberth and Mitchell gone and rebounding could also be an issue for the Bears, who were beaten on the glass 26 to 33 in their 60-75 loss at Auburn as an 8 point underdog on Friday night. The fact that Missouri State lost by 15 points despite making 11 of 23 3-pointers, while Auburn made just
5 of 16 3-pointers, is even more of an indication of how much the Bears may struggle this season since they are certainly not going to continue to make 48% of their long range shots. Central Michigan is a middle of the pack MAC team, but my ratings favor the Chippewas by 3 points in this game. In addition to the line value, Missouri State applies to a negative 18-65-2 ATS early season indicator that is based on their opening game loss. I'll take Central Michigan in a 3-Star Best Bet at -2 or better and for 2-Stars at -2 ½ or -3 points.

2 Star Selection
**ARIZONA (-18.5) over Florida Atlantic
08:00 PM Pacific - Rotation 544
The Lute Olsen era is over in Tucson, but the Wildcats should still be a
pretty good team under new coach Russ Pennell, who the players are bound to
like much more than last year's interim head coach Kevin O'Neill, who the
players spoke out against after he left the program. One player not
returning is leading scorer and 1st round NBA draft pick PG Jerryd Bayless,
but Nic Wise is an outstanding pointguard that will distribute the ball much
more than Bayless did last season. One star that didn't move to the NBA as
expected is F Chase Budinger, who averaging 17.1 points last season. Number
3 scorer and top rebounder Jordan Hill is also back and the Wildcats should
be an NCAA Tournament caliber team even without Bayless. Florida Atlantic is
without last year's top player Carlos Monroe, who is currently academically
ineligible and being without Monroe's 15.4 points and 9.5 rebounds per game
will keep the Owls from being an improved team under new coach Mike Jarvis.
FAU was not at all impressive in only beating a horrible Monmouth team by 3
points in their home opener on Friday night and close exhibition wins over
Lynn University 73-69 and Rollins College 61-56 with Monroe playing (he had
37 points and 23 rebounds in those 2 games) do not bode well for the Owls
against a much more talented opponent tonight. Arizona applies to a 44-13
ATS game 1 indicator and I'll take Arizona in a 2-Star Best Bet at -20
points or less.