UFC 125

[Luke]

I think Maynard was caught up in all the shit talking and wanted to try to KO diaz. Plus, last time he went to the ground with Nate, he got tapped out. I think Diaz will pepper-fuck the shit out of Kim and win though.

So do I and I think I'm going to bet Diaz . I think Diaz can handle Kim and keep it a stand up match

[Mr. IWS]

I think Maynard was caught up in all the shit talking and wanted to try to KO diaz. Plus, last time he went to the ground with Nate, he got tapped out. I think Diaz will pepper-fuck the shit out of Kim and win though.

[Luke]

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Kim will probably beat Diaz by taking him down, controlling him, and avoiding Diaz's submission attempts. Kim has said that he wants to stand and trade, but I think he's lying. I like Kim by decision here.

Maynard wasnt able to do that to Diaz so how is Kim going to be able to?

[Luke]

Well you guys scared me out of most of my McKee bet.

Before you ever placed the Leben bet though, I recall several people saying they had Stann in that one. At the end of the day, you have to trust your own breakdown over everyone else's.

But you are a Leben fan if I recall. I am the opposite, I dislike Leben's personality and I dislike his fighting style. I don't think he is very good and I never have. So I might be under estimating his chances...

I wasnt ever saying I thought Mclovin was going to lose I just said I thought the line was too high. I think betting him at -150 to -175 would be a good line . He'll win tonight imo

[MMA_scientist]

^^ agree with most of what you said, except Guida/Gomi. I think Gomi could put him away early on... but Gomi gasses badly late in fights, especially the last few years. I think if Guida can survive round one, he will start putting Gomi down and maybe even stop him. The combination of Guida being hard to stop, his pace, and Gomi's tank, makes me think Guida will wear him out in round 2 and 3. Gomi didn't gas too bad against FLorian, but it is the grappling that wears him out, and FLorian just boxed him.

I don't think Silva is that bad either. He has big power and an underrated ground game. He was able to use his jj to get back to his feet repeatedly against Rashad, who is a wet blanket when he wants to be. Vera can't hold him down IMO. He got schooled by Machida obviously, but I thought he looked ok against Rashad.

[Svino]

Hey guys, happy 2011.

Been thinking about the 125 main card:

I do think Maynard will beat Edgar. Edgar's improved standup may force Maynard to go for more takedowns (or fencepress) early on, but I don't see it being more than Maynard can handle. IMO Maynard is probably worth a bet at current odds. Any decision prop for Maynard at + odds is good.

Not going to try to call Leben vs. Stann. It's the kind of striker / striker fight I usually avoid as a bettor. That one could be crazy.

On the other hand, I'll take a stab at Silva vs. Vera - I think Silva takes this. These guys may have both been overrated for much of their careers, and the list of the guys they have beaten and you won't see much to justify their relative fame. Silva has looked more impressive to me recently, though. Whomever loses will probably get cut.

Kim will probably beat Diaz by taking him down, controlling him, and avoiding Diaz's submission attempts. Kim has said that he wants to stand and trade, but I think he's lying. I like Kim by decision here.

I'm convinced that a prime Gomi would beat Guida easily. I like Guida's style, but I think he will have little luck taking Gomi down with his overrated wrestling and will get abused badly on the feet. I do feel that there is a possibility that Gomi is washed up, and that his KO of Griffin was his last (lucky) flash, but this possibility doesn't justify underdog odds. I like Gomi to win, and possibly by decision, as Guida could be hard for him to put away. (Gomi by dec was +400 at Bookmaker).

[SPX]

It's true that I'm a Leben fan, and I admit that may be coloring my judgement. I think he's a cool guy and I also like to watch him fight. I also feel like, while he is not great anywhere, he is good everywhere. That, along with the awesome combination of true KO power and an iron chin, makes him a pretty solid fighter in my mind.

Stann has looked better than ever, I'll also admit that. Subbing Massenzio is big and so is beating Cantwell, which I never thought he'd do. But he got beat handily by Krzysztof and also got raped by Phil Davis, so I'm not ready to jump on the Brian Stann Express just yet. Maybe after tonight I'll be singing a different tune.

[edman5555]

Yeah your a hundred percent right about the Akiyama win but his Simpson win was pretty solid. He showed great takedown defense in that one. You've gotta acknowledge that. Aarons striking sucks though, and Leben hits like a ton of bricks. I think Leben probably is better now than he used to be because he always talks about the "new Leben". Then again, he just got a DUI. Long story short, Leben is a brawler that I think Stann might be able to outpoint. Who knows though, Leben can drop a guy with one punch and he can't be killed.

[poopoo333]

I think Leben may just might be getting a little extra credit right now. Simpson was winning until Leben started to catch him (Simpson showed poor striking defense against Lawlor), and Akiyama was beating Leben until he went into cardiac arrest. Akiyama was so gassed he couldn't even give an interview 5 minutes after the fight to Joe Rogan.

[MMA_scientist]

Ya'll got me scared about my Leben bet now.

Well you guys scared me out of most of my McKee bet.

Before you ever placed the Leben bet though, I recall several people saying they had Stann in that one. At the end of the day, you have to trust your own breakdown over everyone else's.

But you are a Leben fan if I recall. I am the opposite, I dislike Leben's personality and I dislike his fighting style. I don't think he is very good and I never have. So I might be under estimating his chances...

[SPX]

Ya'll got me scared about my Leben bet now.

[poopoo333]

Pros who picked Maynard: 25
Pros who picked Edgar: 22
Pros who could not decide: 1

[MMA_scientist]

Yeah I think Leben can win. But the thing that Leben does well, Stann also does just as well (bang). I think Leben will be teh better wrestler though, and he probably has a better submission game off his back. That triangle win over Massenzio... Massenzio was half dead with fatigue. It was really similar to Leben's triangle over Akiyama.

I think Stann will be in better shape and will be more disciplined in the striking. Then I saw hom much bigger he was at the weigh in... I don't know that Leben is going to be able to press him against the cage. Also Stann is going to have some reach. Also, his chin holds up. Then I heard that Stann asked for the fight... that doesn't mean anything really (Grove asked for Maia too), but it probably means he has confidence that there is a weakness he can exploit.

anyway, I am going to put something small there, maybe .5u

[poopoo333]

I am feeling you on the Stann bet. He can prob outpoint Leben. I think he might be a better wrestler but I haven't really seen that myself. I just get that from what I have read. Also, he looks to be much bigger. I would take him straight and maybe by decision.

Stann is not a better wrestler, unless he has drastically improved since the Massenzio fight. Grappling has always been Stann's weak point, but it looked to be improved in the Massenzio fight (he won by triangle). I think this fight plays out on the feet and in the clinch (unless Leben is easily able to take Stann down).

I still like Leben in that one, but No play for me now. two many variables with Leben coming into this one (weight cut, dui, hes a fuckin nut ball).

I wouldn't worry much about the weight cut tbh, it is probably nothing new for him. Stann has a big cut as well, he is about 210.

[Mr. IWS]

I still like Leben in that one, but No play for me now. two many variables with Leben coming into this one (weight cut, dui, hes a fuckin nut ball).