Saturday 9/2/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

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[ConleyPicks]

Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | September 2, 2023

Aug. 31, 2023

Race 10 at Kentucky Downs | Saturday September 2 | Post Time 6:28 PM EasternMint Millions Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $2 million | One Mile on Turf | Three Year Olds and Upward

Top contenders:
In one of countless tremendously competitive races with big fields at this year’s Kentucky Downs meeting, the Mint Millions drew a strong field of 12. The top four contenders to win appear to be (in post-position order and with starting odds) Stitched (3) 20/1, Gray’s Fable (7) 30/1, Churchtown (8) 4/1 and Annapolis (10) 8/5. With two high odds horses and two low odds horses among the quartet of contenders there are a lot of opportunities for profit in most betting pools.
I’m going to start with the two high odds contenders and cases can be made for both. Stitched (3) has won six of 11 turf starts, including a pair of non-graded stakes last spring and summer. Returning off a 10 month layoff in the spring, Stitched was a non-threatening seventh of 12 in the Shakertown Stakes, a sprint. Still not 100% fit and back to the form shown when winning in 2022, he was fifth of 11 in the Opening Verse Stakes in May, won by Annapolis (10). Still highly regarded even after a ninth of 10 finish in June, Stitched entered the Grade 2 Wise Dan Stakes, where four time graded stakes winner Set Piece was the even month favorite. Stalking the pacesetter in fourth and about three lengths off the lead for the first six furlongs, Stitched commenced a rally to get up by a head over that pacesetter (Get Smokin), with Set Piece another length back in third, having commenced his rally from last of 10 too late. Since that race, Set Piece returned to win the Arlington Million, while Wise Dan fourth place finisher Hozier improved to win the Kentucky Downs Preview Mint Million Mile last month. Being a four year old and having raced just 12 times, Stitched may have improving to do. The win in the Wise Dan earned him a career-best 108 Equibase Speed Figure. It must be noted last year’s Mint Millions runner-up, Atone (2), earned a 103 figure, and considering Stitched can run even better then when last seen he has every right to post his second graded stakes upset win in a row, not to mention jockey Florent Geroux takes the call and rode the horse to those back-to-back stakes wins in 2022.
Then there’s Gray’s Fable (7), who finished fifth of 8 in this race last year at 18 to 1, beaten under two lengths in spite of breaking in the air at the start. He hasn’t won a race since, but it’s the races where he was close that, if repeated, could see him running a lot better than his double digit odds suggest he will. Of particular note is his June 1 effort in classified allowance company at this mile turf trip at Churchill Downs. He rallied from sixth in that race and made the lead in the stretch, opening up by nearly two lengths before being run down and settling for second. That earned him a career-best 114 figure, tied for the best in the field with Annapolis, who earned that figure winning the Grade 1 Turf Mile Stakes at Keeneland last fall. In his most recent start, in the Preview Turf Mile, Gray’s Fable was sent to post as the tepid 5 to 2 favorite, and although fourth it must be noted he was seven wide into the stretch and missed second by a half-length and a head, with the winner (Hozier) only another half-length in front. Gray’s Fable had been off for two months prior to that, and he did win the Preview Turf Mile on 2022 (called the Evan Williams Turf Mile) with a 111 figure, so there is little doubt if Gray’s Fable can run that race or the one from June 1, he could have a say in the outcome.
Annapolis (10) has only one knock and that is his odds will be prohibitively low, as he’s been 6 to 5 or less in his last three races. He’s amazingly consistent as he’s been first or second in 10 of 11 races, all on grass, including eight graded stakes. On the other hand, he’s finished second in four of those, including two in a row. Granted, Casa Creed, who beat him in those two, is not entered in this race. After returning from a five month layoff and winning the Opening Verse Stakes in May, Annapolis has earned back-to-back 111 figures which are indeed the best recent figures in the field save for the 114 figure Gray’s Fable earned in June. As such, we will try to make a profit if he wins or finishes second by combining him with the higher odds contenders on exacta tickets, and he is a must to use on any double, pick 3 or 4 tickets played involving this race.
Churchtown (8) may have won the Grade 2 Connaught Cup Stakes last time out on July 23 if not for significant traffic trouble twice during the stretch run. He was the 2 to 1 favorite that day based on his head defeat in May to Annapolis in the Opening Verse Stakes. In position to win at the top of the stretch, he was steadied between horses then when clear and rallying fast he nearly hit the rear end of the horse in front of him, settling for fourth at the end. The runner-up from that race, War Bomber, came right back to win the Grade 2 King Edward Stakes, and that, as well as a trip without trouble, bodes very well for the chances of Churchtown to run the best race of his career today. He too is a four year old and has been first or second in five of six turf races, excluding the Connaught Cup.
Honorable mention goes to a number of others, which we will try to use in some way on some exacta tickets as they may offer high odds as well. Those are Atone (2), Hozier (4), Smokin’ T (5) and Ancient Rome (6).
Bets:
Win: As both Stitched (3) and Gray’s Fable (7) are likely to go to post at high odds, both can be considered for win bets at odds of 5 to 1 or more.
When I make win bets on horses at high odds, I usually also play what is known as the “exacta as a place bet”, because in most cases if the longshots run second the payoff is much greater than a place bet, even for the $1 minimum threshold. As such, the bet is a $1 Exacta: ALL over Stitched (3) and Gray’s Fable.
Exactas:
Box Stitched (3), Gray’s Fable (7), Churchtown (8) and Annapolis (10).
Then, likely for the minimum $1, we can play additional exactas adding more horses, some at high odds, in the second position:
Stitched (3), Gray’s Fable (7), Churchtown (8) and Annapolis (10) over Atone (2), Stitched (3), Hozier (4), Smokin’ T (5), Ancient Rome (6), Gray’s Fable (7), Churchtown (8) and Annapolis (10).

[ConleyPicks]

Saratoga Tip Sheet - September 2

Sep. 01, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 65% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $136,500 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 12:40 PM ET
BEST BET: #3 BARAYE
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	3	Baraye	J Rosario
PLACE	8-5	16	Value Area	Rider TBA
SHOW	6-1	4	Echo Baybe	J Lezcano
WILD CARD	8-1	13	Agra	J Lezcano
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	6	Seven Natty Patty	R Silvera
ALTERNATE 2	9-2	2	Tammy Lynn	D Davis
* EXACTA: 3-16 BOX, 16-4 BOX, 4-13 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/16 BOX, 4/13/16 BOX
RACE #2 $156,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:13 PM ET
BEST BET: #5 ACCRETIVE
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	5	Accretive	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	4-1	6	Guntown	J Lezcano
SHOW	2-1	1	Tonal Impact	M Franco
WILD CARD	5-1	2	Uncle Moonlight	K Carmouche
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	3	Mystic Night	R Santana Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	4	Ram	J Rosario
* EXACTA: 5-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/6 BOX, 1/2/6 BOX
RACE #3 $500,000 STAKES 1 3/8 MILES ON THE INNER TURF - POST TIME: 1:48 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-5	4	Amazing Grace	J Rosario
PLACE	6-1	3	Tamarama	J Castellano
SHOW	6-1	1	Parnac	D Davis
WILD CARD	4-5	2	McKulick	I Ortiz Jr.
* EXACTA: 4-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/4 BOX, 1/2/3 BOX
RACE #4 $149,500 ALLOWANCE 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:21 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-1	7	Ludwig	J Alvarado
PLACE	7-2	5	Frat Pack	I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW	4-1	2	Cape Trafalgar	D Davis
WILD CARD	5-1	1A	Daufuskie Island	R Santana Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	8	Oceans Reserve	J Castellano
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	1	Lafittes Fleet	R Silvera
* EXACTA: 7-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/7 BOX, 1/2/5 BOX
RACE #5 $250,000 STAKES 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:52 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-5	5	Dazzling Blue	J Rosario
PLACE	3-1	1	Jersey Pearl	I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW	10-1	2	Unified Alliance	J Castellano
WILD CARD	2-1	4	Alva Starr	J Lezcano
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	3	Unsung Melody	M Franco
* EXACTA: 5-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/5 BOX, 1/2/4 BOX
RACE #6 $136,500 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 1/16 MILES ON THE INNER TURF - POST TIME: 3:26 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	13	Fortune Seller	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	5-2	10	Agate Road	I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW	12-1	15	Noble Wave	J Lezcano
WILD CARD	10-1	9	Stolen Magic	J Lezcano
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	1	Walley World	M Franco
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	7	Ocala Rocket	J Alvarado
* EXACTA: 13-10 BOX, 10-15 BOX, 15-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 10/13/15 BOX, 9/10/15 BOX
RACE #7 $136,500 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:00 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	3	General Partner	M Franco
PLACE	7-2	9	Dive Bomber	J Rosario
SHOW	20-1	6	Just Be Happy	K Carmouche
WILD CARD	8-1	11	Pentathlon	J Rosario
ALTERNATE 1	9-2	10	Jefferson Street	J Alvarado
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	8	Typhoon Fury	J Castellano
* EXACTA: 3-9 BOX, 9-6 BOX, 6-11 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/6/9 BOX, 6/9/11 BOX
RACE #8 $150,000 STAKES 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:34 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-5	4	Big Invasion	J Rosario
PLACE	2-1	5	Our Shot	J Castellano
SHOW	9-5	8	Sheriff Bianco	J Lezcano
WILD CARD	7-2	2	Dancing Buck	M Franco
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	6	Chess Master	I Castillo
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	3	Thin White Duke	J Lezcano
* EXACTA: 4-5 BOX, 5-8 BOX, 8-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/8 BOX, 2/5/8 BOX
RACE #9 $95,000 ALLOWANCE 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:08 PM ET
BEST BET: #10 RICHIES PRINCESS
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	10	Richies Princess	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	6-1	6	Athena Beach	T Conner
SHOW	8-1	3	Missing Fortune	K J Coa
WILD CARD	6-1	5	Sandys Garden	J Lezcano
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	9	Tosconova Beauty	N Alvarado
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	8	Fancy Feline	J Rosario
* EXACTA: 10-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/6/10 BOX, 3/5/6 BOX
RACE #10 $149,500 ALLOWANCE 1 MILE ON THE INNER TURF - POST TIME: 5:44 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	6	Im Very Busy	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	6-1	7	Royal Spirit	J Lezcano
SHOW	12-1	2	Fredo	J Alvarado
WILD CARD	8-1	4	Ruse	K Carmouche
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	9	Tallahatchiebridge	D Davis
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	1	Danzigwiththestars	M Franco
* EXACTA: 6-7 BOX, 7-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/6/7 BOX, 2/4/7 BOX
RACE #11 $1,000,000 STAKES 1 1/4 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:18 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-1	8	Bright Future	J Castellano
PLACE	20-1	3	Warrior Johny	J Alvarado
SHOW	2-1	1	Proxy	J Rosario
WILD CARD	9-5	4	Rattle N Roll	B J Hernandez Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	6	Tyson	M Franco
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	2	Unbridled Bomber	D Davis
* EXACTA: 8-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/8 BOX, 1/3/4 BOX
RACE #12 $40,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:52 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	4	Camcha	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	5-2	15	Arisaema	J Rosario
SHOW	5-1	6	Lem Me Drink	D Davis
WILD CARD	10-1	5	Jannie Mae	K Carmouche
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	9	Jayla	J Castellano
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	13	Mary Katherine	K Davis
* EXACTA: 4-15 BOX, 15-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/6/15 BOX, 5/6/15 BOX

[ConleyPicks]

Kentucky Downs Tip Sheet - September 2

Sep. 01, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 53% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $150,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 1:30 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	14	Judgement	T Gaffalione
PLACE	6-1	4	Pharoahs Wine	M Chuan
SHOW	5-1	11	Enigmatic	F Geroux
WILD CARD	7-2	8	Watchtower	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 1	9-2	2	Fun Loving	R Bejarano
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	6	Aaralyn	J Talamo
* EXACTA: 14-4 BOX, 4-11 BOX, 11-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/11/14 BOX, 4/8/11 BOX
RACE #2 $150,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:02 PM ET
BEST BET: #1 HECKLED
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	1	Heckled	F Geroux
PLACE	3-1	16	Blessing the Flag	V Cheminaud
SHOW	9-2	4	Lady Emily Kathryn	E J Zayas
WILD CARD	8-1	3	Etheric	J L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 1	7-2	2	Doral	J R Leparoux
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	6	Dream Fly	J P Spencer
* EXACTA: 1-16 BOX, 16-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/16 BOX, 3/4/16 BOX
RACE #3 $180,000 ALLOWANCE 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:34 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 ARREST ME RED
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	2	Arrest Me Red	J R Velazquez
PLACE	9-2	5	Heaven Street	T Gaffalione
SHOW	8-1	6	Bakers Bay	J Talamo
WILD CARD	7-2	7	Mischievous Rogue	L Machado
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	1	County Final	E J Zayas
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	3	Chasing Time	C A Torres
* EXACTA: 2-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/6 BOX, 5/6/7 BOX
RACE #4 $170,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:06 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	10	Accomplished Girl	E J Zayas
PLACE	3-1	13	American Starlet	J R Velazquez
SHOW	15-1	11	Madrilena	G Corrales
WILD CARD	5-2	6	Current Climate	W A Rodriguez
ALTERNATE 1	7-2	3	Free and Humble	J R Velazquez
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	4	Off Ramp	G Saez
* EXACTA: 10-13 BOX, 13-11 BOX, 11-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 10/11/13 BOX, 6/11/13 BOX
RACE #5 $150,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 7 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:41 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-1	2	Twirling Point	F Geroux
PLACE	6-1	5	Augustine Red	C J Lanerie
SHOW	10-1	4	Edgartown	T Gaffalione
WILD CARD	6-1	11	Can Group	F Arrieta
ALTERNATE 1	3-1	14	Committee of One	C A Torres
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	16	Frontline Warrior	J L Ortiz
* EXACTA: 2-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX, 4-11 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/5 BOX, 4/5/11 BOX
RACE #6 $160,000 ALLOWANCE 7 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:14 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-1	4	Just Say When	T Gaffalione
PLACE	9-2	12	Good Heart	J P Spencer
SHOW	8-1	11	Dunedin	A Beschizza
WILD CARD	7-2	2	Felix	J R Velazquez
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	7	Mr. Peeks	E J Zayas
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	13	Zartownis	C A Torres
* EXACTA: 4-12 BOX, 12-11 BOX, 11-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/11/12 BOX, 2/11/12 BOX
RACE #7 $150,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:48 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	3	Beer Run	J R Velazquez
PLACE	6-1	12	Straight and Level	J Loveberry
SHOW	5-1	1	Cigarette Boat	T Gaffalione
WILD CARD	7-2	4	Elegant Trip	M Garcia
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	10	Six Missions	R Gutierrez
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	7	Smoke Wagon	L Machado
* EXACTA: 3-12 BOX, 12-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/12 BOX, 1/4/12 BOX
RACE #8 $1,000,000 STAKES 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:21 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	15-1	3	Gaslight Dancer	G Corrales
PLACE	5-2	9	Wadsworth	F Geroux
SHOW	3-1	6	Talk of the Nation	J L Ortiz
WILD CARD	4-1	10	Major Dude	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 1	30-1	7	Communication Memo	C A Torres
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	2	Highway Robber	J P Spencer
* EXACTA: 3-9 BOX, 9-6 BOX, 6-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/6/9 BOX, 6/9/10 BOX
RACE #9 $1,000,000 STAKES 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:54 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	1	Danse Macabre	A Beschizza
PLACE	9-2	16	Playlist	J R Velazquez
SHOW	12-1	8	American Apple	G Corrales
WILD CARD	7-2	10	L Js Emma	C J Lanerie
ALTERNATE 1	30-1	14	Showgirl Lynne B	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	7	Secret Money	T Gaffalione
* EXACTA: 1-16 BOX, 16-8 BOX, 8-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/8/16 BOX, 8/10/16 BOX
RACE #10 $2,000,000 STAKES 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:28 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-5	10	Annapolis	T Gaffalione
PLACE	30-1	12	Max K. O.	J Graham
SHOW	8-1	2	Atone	J L Ortiz
WILD CARD	9-2	5	Smokin T	J R Velazquez
ALTERNATE 1	30-1	4	Hozier	A Achard
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	3	Stitched	F Geroux
* EXACTA: 10-12 BOX, 12-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/10/12 BOX, 2/5/12 BOX
RACE #11 $150,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 7:00 PM ET
BEST BET: #9 COWICHAN
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	9	Cowichan	J R Velazquez
PLACE	9-2	15	Fancy Caber Neigh	T Gaffalione
SHOW	6-1	16	Snow Princess	J R Velazquez
WILD CARD	4-1	12	Sickle Dance	A Beschizza
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	3	Candy Bar	R Gutierrez
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	7	Calm Cool	C J Lanerie
* EXACTA: 9-15 BOX, 15-16 BOX, 16-12 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 9/15/16 BOX, 12/15/16 BOX

[ConleyPicks]

Golden Gate Tip Sheet - September 2

Sep. 01, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 69% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $12,500 MAIDEN CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 4:45 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	5	Pineapple Juice	A Gomez
PLACE	8-5	4	Jaimes Commitment	F Monroy
SHOW	5-2	3	Rescue Story	I Orozco
WILD CARD	6-1	6	Bobbed N Lured	C Herrera
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	1	Maverick Rose	L M Jimenez Aburto
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	2	Lucky Diablo	M Americano
* EXACTA: 5-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/5 BOX, 3/4/6 BOX
RACE #2 $22,500 MAIDEN CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 5:15 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 BIG CATTY
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	2	Big Catty	A Gomez
PLACE	9-2	1	Cees the Image	S Rivera
SHOW	6-1	4	Victorias Charge	W Antongeorgi III
WILD CARD	7-2	6	Desert Rumble	E A Roman
ALTERNATE 1	9-5	5	Longhorn Lassie	A Chavez
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	3	No Beaches	F Duran
* EXACTA: 2-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/4 BOX, 1/4/6 BOX
RACE #3 $18,000 CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 5:45 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	6	Shes So Shiny	W Antongeorgi III
PLACE	2-1	3	Seems Logical	E A Roman
SHOW	4-1	5	Austrian Navy	L M Jimenez Aburto
WILD CARD	6-1	1	Harbors Rose	C Herrera
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	4	Westward Breeze	S Rivera
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	2	Chic Samarai	A Chavez
* EXACTA: 6-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/6 BOX, 1/3/5 BOX
RACE #4 $10,500 CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 6:15 PM ET
BEST BET: #3 ZIPPY BABY
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	3	Zippy Baby	E A Roman
PLACE	4-1	4	Stormin Galileo	I Orozco
SHOW	5-1	1	Mob Boss	W Antongeorgi III
WILD CARD	8-1	7	Harbor Sky	C Herrera
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	5	Affectionto Autism	C Martinez
* EXACTA: 3-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/4 BOX, 1/4/7 BOX
RACE #5 $18,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:49 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	1	Black Caspian	I Orozco
PLACE	4-1	5	Sea of Liberty	E A Roman
SHOW	3-1	2	Respect the Hustle	W Antongeorgi III
WILD CARD	6-1	7	Shot of a Lifetime	S Rivera
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	4	Bandera Azteca	B Pena
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	3	Lil Miracle Man	L M Jimenez Aburto
* EXACTA: 1-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX, 2-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/5 BOX, 2/5/7 BOX
RACE #6 $5,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 7:22 PM ET
BEST BET: #5 HOW ABOUT A FRESCA
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	5	How About a Fresca	B Pena
PLACE	2-1	3	ONeills Legacy	C Martinez
SHOW	5-1	7	Maycee Jo	A Chavez
WILD CARD	6-1	6	Lady in a Hurry	I Orozco
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	4	Miss Ski	C Herrera
* EXACTA: 5-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX, 7-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/7 BOX, 3/6/7 BOX
RACE #7 $35,000 CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 7:52 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-2	7	Anitanewmercedes	I Orozco
PLACE	5-2	1	Nolde	A Chavez
SHOW	3-1	6	Honos Man	W Antongeorgi III
WILD CARD	7-2	2	Kennebec	B Pena
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	3	Harmon	C Martinez
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	4	Conundrum	F T Alvarado
* EXACTA: 7-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/6/7 BOX, 1/2/6 BOX
RACE #8 $30,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 8:24 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	8	Town Performer	F Duran
PLACE	4-1	1	No Ice No Glass	A Chavez
SHOW	10-1	9	Mogollon Rim	A Gomez
WILD CARD	10-1	7	Reserve Proof	C Herrera
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	6	Curvy Curls	I Orozco
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	5	Atta Boy Lloyd	F T Alvarado
* EXACTA: 8-1 BOX, 1-9 BOX, 9-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/8/9 BOX, 1/7/9 BOX

[ConleyPicks]

Del Mar Tip Sheet - September 2

Sep. 01, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 65% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $82,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:30 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	2	Bolts Broad	F Prat
PLACE	5-1	6	Irish Rose	H I Berrios
SHOW	5-2	5	North East Star	U Rispoli
WILD CARD	6-1	3	Thirty Carats	R A Vazquez
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	8	Lunar Impact	A Fresu
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	9	Star of The Night	J J Hernandez
* EXACTA: 2-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/6 BOX, 3/5/6 BOX
RACE #2 $14,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:00 PM ET
BEST BET: #1 GROUP HUG
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	1	Group Hug	U Rispoli
PLACE	5-2	10	Clooney	T J Pereira
SHOW	12-1	8	All the Kings Men	J Bravo
WILD CARD	4-1	6	Frost Alert	A Fresu
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	5	Smiling At Val	E A Maldonado
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	2	Sippin N Kissin	R A Vazquez
* EXACTA: 1-10 BOX, 10-8 BOX, 8-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/8/10 BOX, 6/8/10 BOX
RACE #3 $82,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:30 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-1	9	Stay Hot	A Fresu
PLACE	5-2	8	Beneficial	F Prat
SHOW	4-1	4	Wine Me Up	J J Hernandez
WILD CARD	5-1	10	Final Boss	U Rispoli
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	2	Mr Fabricator	T J Pereira
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	6	D Oro Dash	E A Maldonado
* EXACTA: 9-8 BOX, 8-4 BOX, 4-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/8/9 BOX, 4/8/10 BOX
RACE #4 $82,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:00 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	8	Petesoldfashioned	E A Maldonado
PLACE	6-1	14	Mr. Chivas	T J Pereira
SHOW	12-1	1	Capo Luigi	H I Berrios
WILD CARD	4-1	9	Red On Sunday	F Prat
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	6	Mischiefs Causeway	A Fresu
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	5	Freight Train Baby	K J Desormeaux
* EXACTA: 8-14 BOX, 14-1 BOX, 1-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/8/14 BOX, 1/9/14 BOX
RACE #5 $83,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:34 PM ET
BEST BET: #11 TALKLESSWORKMORE
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	11	Talklessworkmore	R Gonzalez
PLACE	7-2	3	Donner Lake	F Prat
SHOW	8-1	8	Fore Flag	U Rispoli
WILD CARD	8-1	9	Developing the Way	A Fresu
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	2	California Bay	T J Pereira
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	5	Worse Read Sanchez	M Gutierrez
* EXACTA: 11-3 BOX, 3-8 BOX, 8-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/8/11 BOX, 3/8/9 BOX
RACE #6 $83,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:05 PM ET
BEST BET: #7 DR. VENKMAN
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	7	Dr. Venkman	J J Hernandez
PLACE	6-1	8	Giver Not a Taker	A Fresu
SHOW	3-1	2	Navy Man	F Prat
WILD CARD	12-1	4	CMon Man	K J Desormeaux
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	1	Divine Armor	U Rispoli
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	10	The Key Is Unity	H I Berrios
* EXACTA: 7-8 BOX, 8-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/7/8 BOX, 2/4/8 BOX
RACE #7 $300,000 STAKES 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 7:37 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	3	Count Again	U Rispoli
PLACE	4-1	1	Du Jour	F Prat
SHOW	12-1	9	Twist	K J Desormeaux
WILD CARD	6-1	5	Balnikhov	H I Berrios
ALTERNATE 1	3-1	4	Exaulted	J J Hernandez
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	8	War At Sea	V Espinoza
* EXACTA: 3-1 BOX, 1-9 BOX, 9-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/9 BOX, 1/5/9 BOX
RACE #8 $150,000 STAKES 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 8:07 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-5	9	Faiza	F Prat
PLACE	3-1	10	Ceiling Crusher	E A Maldonado
SHOW	12-1	4	Coffee in Bed	J J Hernandez
WILD CARD	20-1	8	Pink Ace	R A Vazquez
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	6	Anywho	H I Berrios
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	1	Justique	M E Smith
* EXACTA: 9-10 BOX, 10-4 BOX, 4-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/9/10 BOX, 4/8/10 BOX
RACE #9 $150,000 STAKES 5 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 8:39 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-1	10	Bran	J J Hernandez
PLACE	6-1	5	Beer Can Man	R A Vazquez
SHOW	5-1	6	Lane Way	M E Smith
WILD CARD	6-1	1	Fast Buck	D A Herrera
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	9	Cherubic Factor	A Fresu
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	12	Packs a Wahlop	F Prat
* EXACTA: 10-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/6/10 BOX, 1/5/6 BOX
RACE #10 $1,000,000 STAKES 1 1/4 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 9:13 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	5	Defunded	J J Hernandez
PLACE	10-1	8	Senor Buscador	G Franco
SHOW	3-1	9	Arabian Knight	F Prat
WILD CARD	5-2	1	Geaux Rocket Ride	M E Smith
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	7	Slow Down Andy	M Gutierrez
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	3	Stilleto Boy	K J Desormeaux
* EXACTA: 5-8 BOX, 8-9 BOX, 9-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/8/9 BOX, 1/8/9 BOX
RACE #11 $300,000 STAKES 1 3/8 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 9:45 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	10	Gold Phoenix	J J Hernandez
PLACE	10-1	7	Nineeleventurbo	R A Vazquez
SHOW	5-1	6	Offlee Naughty	U Rispoli
WILD CARD	6-1	5	Cathkin Peak	A Fresu
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	8	Azul Coast	F Prat
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	3	None Above the Law	J Bravo
* EXACTA: 10-7 BOX, 7-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 6/7/10 BOX, 5/6/7 BOX

[ConleyPicks]

XPRESSBET DAILY PICKS FOR SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 2ND, 2023

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Xpressbet's free Daily Picks are produced by expert handicappers, selecting the best bets of the day on the hottest tracks.
Print today's Daily Picks
BRIAN W. SPENCER'S DAILY PICKS

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Del Mar - Race #9

#12 Packs a Whallop	He wasn't badly beaten in Grade I company at the Breeders' Cup last season, and he kicked off that successful turf campaign going short here. He's quick enough to spy the speed early on and might be a decent price.
#5 Beer Can Man	Reliable runner is one of many in here with a claim on the top spot, so a decent bit of this for me will rely on watching the tote to see how this handful of capable horses gets sorted out somewhere between 7/2 and maybe 7/1.
#4 Silent Poet	I've honestly never been a huge fan despite him being a serious horse an earner of nearly a million bucks, but I think he has a sneaky chance to land a piece of this while just chasing throughout. He hasn't been on the best end of the trips in recent races.
Race Summary	Packs a Whallop catches a bunch of good horses while returning from a dull try in the Grade III Sham early this year before going to the sidelines, and with that dirt experiment early on the Derby Trail out of the way, he's probably getting back to his best game with some purpose here. #8 Motorious another with a big chance on current form.

Del Mar - Race #10

#11 Skinner	Not sure he has ever run something good enough to win this, but there might still be just a tiny bit of upside for this guy who could appreciate the 10-furlong trip. In the mix.
#1 Geaux Rocket Ride	He and #9 Arabian Knight -- who I won't highlight specifically in Top 3 but is obviously a big player here second off the break -- both exit the Haskell, but this guy got the better that day and could be in line for a dreamy run of things from the rail draw while some quicker pace types cross over early.
#8 Senor Buscador	Finisher got a good setup last time out and made the most of it, but he an almost clockwork on-again/off-again type horse, and that would leave him sitting on a step back today for maybe a bit piece. All that said, I think the race flow flatters him again.
Race Summary	Lots of capable players here with high ceiling potential on their best day in another good graded race on this card, and I think you can make a fairly fun risk vs. reward case for almost any horse in here based on their likely prices. Skinner tracks, but I'm probably going to need something very close to that 10/1 ML price to stick around.

Del Mar - Race #11

#7 Nineeleventurbo	Riser earned the hike with a sensational campaign so far this year, rattling off four wins in a row and handling a hike into conditioned allowance company last time out. Waters get deeper again, but he's the kind of now horse I like.
#10 Gold Phoenix	I've never been very good at getting on the same page as this guy, but I really liked his Eddie Read win here in late July, and he obviously classes up well with some of the better turf types around. A main character again if he's not sitting on a step back.
#6 Offlee Naughty	Just like in the Green Flash, there are a lot of horses with pretty reliable form and a ceiling high enough to win this, so a lot depends on how the prices look, but this guy is honest and one of the more obvious players.
Race Summary	Nineeleventurbo almost has to offer a playable enough price in here simply on class alone, as he's facing legit Grade II-type field in here and has to prove he belongs. He hasn't been really hard pressed in those recent scores, and I will give him the chance to make his name known today.

[ConleyPicks]

FRANK CARULLI'S DAILY PICKS

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Gulfstream Park - Race #2

#2 TAPINTOYOURBEER (4-1)	Chased winner, held second off 3-month layoff, gets blinks for new barn.
#7 NATURAL VIBES (9-5)	Rallied for second behind repeat winner, but vet voided claim on him.
#6 SUPER SPREADER (3-1)	Earned top speed figure on stretch-out in six-horse field, gets class relief.
Race Summary	TAPINTOYOURBEER lugged in and drifted out in the stretch but still held off the odds-on favorite to finish second. He chased solid fractions set by the winner on the sloppy track, now adds blinkers off the claim. Bet to win and place.

Gulfstream Park - Race #3

#6 FOR THE CHIEF (7-2)	Good value play with expected move forward off comeback try as a gelding.
#5 GUSTAV (8-1)	On the improve, exits MSW company, worked 5F bullet last Friday.
#7 ONE FAST DREAM (8-5)	Led at 1/8th pole before longshot winner fought back.
Race Summary	FOR THE CHIEF was urged along while 3-wide for the stretch run, but settled for third behind the two favorites. He breezed 5F in 1:01-3/5 for his second start as a gelding and second after a three-month absence. Play a 6-ALL exacta.

Gulfstream Park - Race #4

#3 THE GREAT CESAR (7-2)	Strong maiden run at this distance, needs alert start, wears hood.
#7 GOTTA LIKE HIM (7-5)	Chased fleet-footed winner, finished second in same spot at 5F.
#4 MIDNIGHT GETAWAY (4-1)	Late-running 3-year-old sheds 10 pounds, gets an extra half-furlong.
Race Summary	THE GREAT CESAR broke his maiden after the winner was disqualified for a positive test. But he ran a winning race, nonetheless, ranging up boldly behind the leaders on the turn, awaiting room until it was too late and galloping out in front. Take him to repeat with a win and place bet.