Sunday 3/16/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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[ConleyPicks]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Fair Grounds - Race #4

#2 Avery's Gem	Dropper isn't in great form right now, but he's not too far removed from some races that would make short work of this group, so I'm hoping maybe he turns in something in between those types of efforts to land it.
#1 Patek	He might take a little bit of heat from the fence, but I think his Delta form might transfer over here OK if he can catch a flyer early and try to command this one into the turn.
#5 Ocean Jackpot	He steps up into a logical spot after the easy graduation run last out, and I like that he took that step forward when making his first local start -- something the Delta invaders don't always do.
Race Summary	Avery's Gem is probably a good fit with these right now, and the drop from allowance company doesn't worry me that much even with the flat last two lines -- he was a $5,000 claimer five months ago anyway.

Fair Grounds - Race #6

#3 Pondering	Nothing but flat form from her since the Ellis graduation run last summer, but she's got a ton of excuses along the way on class and dumping her rider. Not sure we still have a real clue what she's made of, but I bet she'll turn in something good here with just the tiniest bit of good luck.
#4 Modo	She has enough pace to force the issue early here after scoring in that stakes spot last time out, and I like that she has already carried her track with her multiple times.
#6 Stable Currency	She just won at this level and comes right back with a chance to spy her way to another win. Not sure I'm too thrilled about taking her at a much shorter number against a deeper group this time around, though.
Race Summary	Pondering has a pretty unique set of running lines since she stepped up to face winners, and maybe with a clean run of things today she can finally get back to her true talent -- whatever that is.

Fair Grounds - Race #8

#12 Flower Cat	No strong feelings about the more logical players, and I wonder if this one can flash some prompting pace in a race without a ton of early inside speed. Price chance.
#9 Izzy's Baby Boy	He has some decent sprint tries on his page and can bounce back today after the fading run with better. Should be up close throughout.
#5 Bouldering	There's a little bit of honest finishing form on his page, and something just a touch better than that last one might be enough to keep him in the frame at a decent price.
Race Summary	Flower Cat has a couple interesting races on his page, and I wonder if he can find a decent pressing spot to attack from the start here.

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Aqueduct

Aqueduct - Race 6	Exacta ($1), Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double ($1) 6 &7, Pick 3 ($1) (6-8) Pick 4 (.50) (6-9)
Maiden Optional Claiming $40,0 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 83 • Purse: $74,000 • Post: 3:36P
FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK BRED STATE REGISTRY OR MAIDEN CLAIMING $40,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $40,000 (1.5% AFTERCARE ASSESSMENT DUE AT TIME OF CLAIM OTHERWISE CLAIM WILL BE VOID).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Stalker. SCHLOMO is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SCHLOMO: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SOUNDS LIKE FUN: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. PALACE BOSS: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. ROOFER: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff.
4	SCHLOMO	5/2	3/1
2	SOUNDS LIKE FUN	8/1	6/1
5	PALACE BOSS	3/1	9/1
8	ROOFER	5/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
8	ROOFER	8	5/1	Front-runner	81	71	76.8	71.6	67.6
6	READY SET TWIRL	6	15/1	Front-runner	0	0	74.0	31.2	16.7
4	SCHLOMO	4	5/2	Stalker	83	76	85.9	75.3	72.3
5	PALACE BOSS	5	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	78	81	78.9	59.1	52.1
2	SOUNDS LIKE FUN	2	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	82	73	59.6	69.6	63.6
7	INONIT	7	8/1	Trailer	76	75	23.7	69.2	57.2
1	TWOHONESTMISCHIEF	1	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	70	61	53.1	51.3	41.3
9	FLY'N FRISBEE	9	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: ARK ROYAL (8/1) [Jockey: Maragh Romero Ramsay - Trainer: Hennig Mark A].

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Gulfstream Park - Race #4 - Post: 2:27pm - Optional Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $54,000 Class Rating: 93

Rating:

#1 FULANITO (ML=4/1)
#2 MY VOODOO DOLL (ML=5/2)


FULANITO - Has found a soft spot this time around. MY VOODOO DOLL - This animal is in the top spot in earnings per race. He looks solid in today's event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 HEALS THE SOUL (ML=3/1), #7 ROCK N ROLL BOLT (ML=7/2), #3 ADIOS NOW (ML=8/1),

HEALS THE SOUL - Likely won't make much of an impact in today's event. ROCK N ROLL BOLT - I cannot play this habitual non-winner. Gets the job executed from time to time. Could be tough for this racer to beat this bunch off of that last speed rating. Not probable to improve enough to run a figure close to today's class figure, so put him on the likely underpriced equines list. ADIOS NOW - Difficult to take this questionable contender at the odds after the finish position (seventh) in the last event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#1 FULANITO is going to be the play if we are getting 2/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Sandy Ridge At The Red Mile

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 8 - Maiden - 220y on the Dirt. Purse: $24000 Class Rating: 76

QUARTER HORSE 220Y, FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 126 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 PYC PAINT YOUR GUNS 20/1
# 9 DARK LONELY KNIGHT 8/1
# 7 DYNA BEA 8/1

PYC PAINT YOUR GUNS seems to be the bet in here and is a competitive value bet given the line at 20/1. With Castaneda getting the mount, watch out for this racer. Posted a solid speed figure in the last race. Can run another good one in this race. DYNA BEA - This animal has to be in condition coming back to race so quickly. If you look closely, this horse has some longshot potential.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 5 - Maiden Claiming - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $6800 Class Rating: 19

FOR NATIVE MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 116 LBS.; OLDER, 120 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE ALLOWED 1 LBS. 2# A INFERIORES Y DEBTS ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 JOSIADOR 9/2
# 6 ENCANTO DE A. J. 15/1
# 1 ACECHADOR 7/2

JOSIADOR is tough to overlook as the bet in here.

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Remington Park

Remington Park - Race 8	WPS / Exacta / Trifecta (.50 Cent Minimum) / Superfecta (.10 Cent Minimum) Pick 3 (Races 8-9-10) (.50 Cent Minimum)
Maiden • 250 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 68 • Purse: $20,000 • Post: 7:09P
QUARTER HORSE 250Y, FOR ACCREDITED OKLAHOMA-BREDS MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * DR WHIZKEY ON ICE: A first time starter with a trainer that has a return on investment with first time starters of at least +50 (minimum 10 starts). Jockey/Trainer combination return on i nvestment is at least +20. LADY CARTEL 123: Horse is a first time starter and its sire's win percentage with first timers is at least 18 (minimum of 50 starts). Jockey/Trainer combination win percentage is at least 30. CLA RED EARTH: Jockey/Traine r combination return on investment is at least +20. BP RICH MAN: Horse is a first time starter and its sire's win percentage with first timers is at least 18 (minimum of 50 starts).
1	DR WHIZKEY ON ICE	12/1	6/1
3	LADY CARTEL 123	4/1	7/1
4	BP RICH MAN	5/1	8/1
2	CLA RED EARTH	15/1	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure

Unknown Running Style: DR WHIZKEY ON ICE (12/1) [Jockey: Calderon Francisco - Trainer: Vane Jed H], CLA RED EARTH (15/1) [Jockey: Maldonado Luis Angel - Trainer: Wright Albert], LADY CARTEL 123 (4/1) [Jockey: Escobedo Edwin G - Trainer:

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts


Aqueduct - Race #5 - Post: 3:04pm - Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $40,000 Class Rating: 91

Rating:

#6 THE JUDGE AND JURY (ML=8/1)
#1 CHARGING AERO (ML=5/2)
#3 JAKE ROCKS (ML=3/1)


THE JUDGE AND JURY - This gelding is rounding his way back into shape. Should compete well today. This mount wins a lot of cash per race around the track. I believe he can increase the lifetime earnings in this event. CHARGING AERO - This gelding is in good physical condition. Finished second on February 14th. Gelding took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape. This rider and handler have a favorable return on investment when they unite. JAKE ROCKS - Strong return on investment for this rider and conditioner duet. This gelding garnered a strong figure of 87 in his last race. That speed figure should be high enough to win this time.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 UNCLE GEORGE (ML=4/1), #8 MAJESTIC FRONTIER (ML=6/1), #5 THANK YOU JON (ML=8/1),

UNCLE GEORGE - I find it hard to wager on this mount in today's event. Make him show you something in a short distance race before you wager on him in a race of 7 furlongs. MAJESTIC FRONTIER - Not likely that this steed can nab this sprint after showing no zip in that last route race. Tough to play any entrant in a sprint event at 6/1 when he hasn't shown any successful endeavors in sprints in the last sixty days. Registered a mediocre speed figure last time out in a $15,000 Claiming race on March 2nd. Improbable to see an improved performance off of that number. THANK YOU JON - He had to show me more against that weaker field in the last race on Feb 9th to get my support today. Not probable that the speed rating he recorded on Feb 9th will hold up in this affair.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #6 THE JUDGE AND JURY to win if you can get at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	6 with [1,3]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,3,6] Total Cost: $6

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Flamboro Downs

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 10
4	4	SOMEWHERENTUSCANY	2/1	Fillion, Samuel - 15	488.81
1	1	P H JIM	3/1	Harris, J Bradley - 11	443.85
5	5	GATOR HANOVER	4/1	Sorrie, Austin - 19	442.78
3	3	BEACH CRUISER	6/1	Mackenzie, Paul G - 8	423.59
2	2	RAISING SAND	9/2	Thiessen, Daryl - 12	410.54
6	6	PHONE NINE ONE ONE	7/2	Cullen, Travis A - 27	396.07
7	7	OPULENT DRAGON	8/1	Ryan, Jason D - 13	366.09

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Saratoga Harness

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 9 - Post: 2:40 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 80 - Purse:$9000 - $12,500 CLAIMING ALLOWANCE SARATOGA

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 7 SWISS COTTON 7/5
# 4 ADDISON HANOVER 8/1
# 1 PORTERS MAN 9/5

Feel pretty confident putting mucho dinero down on SWISS COTTON. Going to post soundly, recorded a very promising TrackMaster Speed Rating in his most recent race (83). In recent times Beckwith has been blazing hot, which may give the edge to this gelding here. When Beckwith drives this entrant you can bet they'll be in the top 3, numbers show them there 100 percent of the time. ADDISON HANOVER - He has good class numbers, averaging 84. Worth considering for a bet in this event. The group always likes a proven player. This horse's high winning clip is confirmation of that. PORTERS MAN - Have to make Devaux the bet here if only for the last thirty days win statistic. Big chance for the score. Been racing with some tougher customers of late, has a distinct class edge. (Average Rating 80).

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Northfield Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Post: 7:50 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 87 - Purse:$13500 - NON WINNERS $8000 IN LAST 4 STARTS. AE: N/W $1750 PER START IN 2025. AE: CLAIMING $30,000

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 1 BEACHCHIP HANOVER 7/2
# 4 NATIVE'S FILOU 3/1
# 2 INTREPID IVY 2/1

BEACHCHIP HANOVER looks very nice to best this group of animals. This interesting entrant has shown us some ability in the past, just look at the 87 average class rating. Should play well in this contest. Always tremendous driver-trainer match. 19 percent winners when they team up to do work. With a 95pct ROI, this driver-trainer has produced great returns recently for players. NATIVE'S FILOU - Could definitely take this group of animals given the 85 speed rating earned in his most recent outing. Can't gloss over the connections here, a 30 winning percent, one of the most favorable at getting into the winners circle. INTREPID IVY - Might be there at a fair price tag. More than likely one to keep in your exotics. He's performing in fine form, recording huge TrackMaster Speed Ratings. An excellent pick.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Miami Valley

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 12
5	5	NASHING HILL	5/2	Miller, Brett - 13	606.78
4	4	LOTSA KNOCK US	4/1	Smith, Tyler - 9	538.32
8	8	LATER DUDES	8/1	Page, Chris - 16	526.22
1	1	LUNAR	15/1	Smith, Trevor - 9	512.35
6	6	MUSTANG BEACH	20/1	Tetrick, Trace - 12	505.86
2	2	ALWAYS AMAZING	6/1	Ward, David - 24	503.45
3	3	GANDALF THE BAY	3/1	Noble, Dan - 18	494.52
7	7	TRUTHBTOLDBLUECHIP	20/1	Smith, Jeremy - 20	491.03

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Mike Wynn

Free Pick: Minnesota -13.5 over Utah

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Free play from Totals4U


Sunday's Free Selection: Atlanta Hawks/Brooklyn Nets under 229

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Free play from #1 Sports


Sunday's Free Play: Brooklyn Nets + 6