11-25-08

Las Vegas Sport Picks

Football: (4-3 last 2 days)
2* Ball St/WMU over 53

NHL: (1-0 yesterday)
1* Predators -1.5 +180
1* Flames -1.5 +170
2* Atl/Leafs over 6 -110

Basketball: (11-4 last 2 days)
2* Lakers -13
2* OKC/Phx under 199
2* Georgia State -1
2* OKC +10.5
3* PSU -3
3* Cavs/Knicks ove 213
4* St. Louis +10.5

westcoastsportspicks

NBA Basketball
7:00:00 PM Golden State at Washington Golden State -1

8:00:00 PM Phoenix at Oklahoma City Oklahoma City +10.5


NCAA Basketball
7:00:00 PM Mississippi State at St. Bonaventure St. Bonaventure +9.5
7:30:00 PM Penn State at Pennsylvania Penn State -2
8:00:00 PM Ball State at Wisc-Milwaukee Ball State +7 .5
8:00:00 PM Saint Louis at Nebraska Saint Louis +10.5
8:05:00 PM Creighton at Arkansas-Little Rock Arkansas-Little Rock +4.5
8:30:00 PM Georgia State at Troy Georgia State -1

PickLogic’s Pick:

Game: Golden State Warriors at Washington Wizards
Sport: National Basketball Association
Date: Tuesday, November 25, 2008
Time: 4:05 PM Pacific time
Selection: OVER the "total" of 210, -110
Wager: 1 unit (Last night was a winner) so its still 1 unit

NBA
Write-up


Tuesday, November 25

Hot Teams
-- Cavaliers won nine of their last ten games.
-- Mavericks won last four games, by 10-17-10-15 points.
-- Lakers won four in row, 11 of first 12 games (4-3 as home favorite). Nets won four of their last five games.

Cold Teams
-- Warriors lost last two games, covered two of last eight. Wizards fired their coach Monday after starting the season 1-10.
-- Knicks lost three of their last four games.
-- Thunder won their last eleven games (1-6 last seven vs spread). Suns covered two of their last seven games.
-- Pacers lost four of their last five games.

Totals
-- Five of last six Warrior games went over the total; five of Wizards' last six games stayed under. .
-- Seven of last nine Cleveland games went over the total.
-- Seven of last eight Oklahoma City games went over the total; five of last six Phoenix stayed under. .
-- Last three Dallas games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last nine Laker games went over the total.

NHL
Write-up


Tuesday, November 25

Hot teams
-- Predators, Blues both won three of their last four games.
-- Flames won three of their last four home games.

Cold teams
-- Thrashers lost their last three games, scoring five goals.
-- Maple Leafs lost seven of their last nine games.
-- Kings lost three of their last four games.

Totals
-- Three of last four Nashville games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 8-2-1 in last eleven Atlanta-Toronto games.
-- Six of last nine Calgary games went over the total.

Series Records
-- Predators won five of their last six games against St Louis.
-- Leafs won three in row, eight of last twelve games against Atlanta.
-- Kings lost seven of last eight games against Calgary.

NCAAF

Tuesday, November 25

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

W MICHIGAN (9 - 2) at BALL ST (11 - 0) - 11/25/2008, 6:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALL ST is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
BALL ST is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALL ST is 1-1 against the spread versus W MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
BALL ST is 1-1 straight up against W MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NAVY (6 - 4) at N ILLINOIS (6 - 5) - 11/25/2008, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NAVY is 102-72 ATS (+22.8 Units) in all games since 1992.
NAVY is 54-23 ATS (+28.7 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1992.
NAVY is 102-72 ATS (+22.8 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NAVY is 67-42 ATS (+20.8 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NAVY is 51-22 ATS (+26.8 Units) in road games since 1992.
NAVY is 51-22 ATS (+26.8 Units) in road lined games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
N ILLINOIS is 1-0 against the spread versus NAVY over the last 3 seasons
NAVY is 1-0 straight up against N ILLINOIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Sheet
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Tuesday, November 25

6:00 PM WESTERN MICHIGAN vs. BALL STATE
Western Michigan is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Ball State
Western Michigan is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Ball State
Ball State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Ball State is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games


7:00 PM NAVY vs. NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Navy is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Navy is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games on the road
Northern Illinois is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Northern Illinois is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games

Maddux - Comp

CFB - W. Mich / Ball St. OV 53

Vegas Hotsheet

CFB - Navy +3

Cappersaccess

Ball St.
Navy

November 25 2008
Frank Patron 10000 Unit College Football Lock

Frank Patron

10000 Unit College Football Lock

Navy Midshipmen +3

Cajun-Sports CFB Executive- Tuesday


TUESDAY 11/25/2008

7:00 PM EST - ESPN2

4 STAR SELECTION

BALL STATE -10½ over Western Michigan

Two Mid-American Conference quarterbacks and their teams square off Tuesday night when the Broncos visit the Cardinals. Western Michigan’s Tim Hiller and Ball State's Nate Davis will try to lead their teams to unfamiliar territory — the MAC title game in the West Division showdown.

Hiller has rebounded from a so-so sophomore season to produce 309 yards a game passing with 33 touchdowns while ranking second in the league in passing efficiency. The only man ahead of him is Davis, who averages 273 passing yards with 24 TDs.

The Cardinals have never reached the championship but this has been their dream season, with an unprecedented 11-0 record and the highest national ranking in school history — 15th in the Bowl Championship Series standings.

Nate Davis is a junior, but with the help of running back MiQuale Lewis who has nearly 1500 yards, has made Ball State the MAC's leader in total offense and scoring.

Last week, the Cardinals got over the hump and did something the Broncos could not do earlier this season – win at Central Michigan. In fact, Western Michigan has never won THIS game, the one where there's so much at stake in the MAC standings, during coach Bill Cubit's tenure. It lost 42-7 at Northern Illinois in 2005 with a bowl bid on the line, 31-7 in 2006 at Central Michigan with the league title probably at stake and again to the Chippewas this season, 38-28, in a game that'll likely keep the Broncos from the MAC championship game.

The 2 big differences between these teams should become obvious Tuesday night. First, Ball State has a very balanced attack, which will be needed in what could be a cold, windy, and snowy night, while Western Michigan has relied much more on QB Hiller than its running game. Secondly, the Cardinals defense has been stronger than the Broncos this season.

Western Michigan is simply in over its head here, as they are 0-9 ATS (-8.1 ppg) when not an underdog of 28+ points vs. undefeated teams not off a conference road ATS loss of 5+ points. Only twice have they been a non-Saturday dog of more than 3 points since 2005 and have been demolished in those 2 contests, losing by 30 points on average, while failing to cover the spread by 3 TDs!

Ball State has proven time and again this season that they are up to the task and they are not about to fade here. We will certainly get their best effort and focus here, as we look to play ON a power team in a “must-win” situation to qualify for a conference championship or bowl game under the right conditions.

Ultimately, the most important factor is whether the team sincerely believes they belong in the postseason. Even those teams not usually in the playoffs can be favorably affected by the specter of elimination so long as they truly believe they belong in the playoffs. The Cardinals certainly believe they belong, especially after disposing of the Chippewas last week.

Ball State is now 10-0 SU (+23.1 ppg) & 10-0 ATS (+15.2 ppg) when not favored by 25+ points vs. teams seeking revenge for a SU loss of 4+ points, and 7-0 SU (+19.6 ppg) & 7-0 ATS (+12.4 ppg) this season when not favored by 17+ points.

We also note that undefeated home teams from Game 8 on with less than 6 days rest and not favored by 24+ points are 4-0 SU (+31 ppg) & 4-0 ATS (+19 ppg) since at least 1980, and teams have finished strong at home in highlighted, non-Saturday games when facing a foe on a winning streak. This is confirmed by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM which states:

In its Last Home Game, play ON a non-Saturday favorite of 1½-15½ points with less than 12 days rest vs. an opponent off 2 SU wins (not both non-Saturday).

Since 1985, these teams are 15-0 SU (+17.9 ppg) & 14-0-1 ATS (+11.4 ppg). Last week’s thumping of Miami, FL by Georgia Tech was the most recent example, and now Ball State qualifies as the next “PLAY ON” team.

Finally, our SportsDataBase research has revealed that late in the season, unbeaten teams have enjoyed the bright lights of non-Saturday games and not overlooked opponents in these highlighted games. This is confirmed by another POWER SYSTEM which states:

From Game 8 on, play ON a non-Saturday undefeated home team (not a favorite of 24+ points) vs. an opponent off a SU win (not an ATS loss of 9+ points).

These perfect teams have remained perfect and covered the spread in every opportunity since at least 1980, going 11-0 SU (+19.7 ppg) & 11-0 ATS (+12.5 ppg).

Last week, Ball State struggled for 3 quarters before coming on strong in the 4th quarter to win at Central Michigan. With a home crowd in a frenzy here, we look for the Cardinals to jump on the Broncos early and demoralize a team that knows its going bowling even with a loss.

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: BALL STATE 34 WESTERN MICHIGAN 17



7:00 PM EST - ESPN CLASSIC

3 STAR SELECTION

NORTHERN ILLINOIS -3 over Navy

Tuesday night the 6-4 Midshipman travel to take on the 6-5 Huskies of the Mid-American Conference. Navy is coming off a 27-21 loss to Notre Dame back on November 15 while Northern Illinois beat up on Kent State, 42-14, in the snow last Tuesday.

Midshipmen sophomore Ricky Dobbs gets his first start as a college quarterback in this game. Dobbs has come off the bench in each of the last three games and rallied the Midshipmen. His entrance didn't produce immediate results last week, and it took a silly Temple fumble to get it done the week before. Navy coach Ken Niumatalolo knows Dobbs still has a lot of work to do to become a better player. He also knows Jarod Bryant wasn't at fault for the problems that led to Dobbs coming in again in the loss to Notre Dame a couple of Saturdays ago.

All that said, the first-year head coach has decided to go with the sophomore Dobbs over the senior Bryant when the Midshipmen visit Northern Illinois.

"There's area where (Dobbs) definitely needs to get better," Niumatalolo says. "But I've told him, I've told Jarod, the bottom line is he's moving the team."

The Mids are already set to play in the December 20th EagleBank Bowl at RFK Stadium in Washington. So, while wins are nice, there's no reason for Navy not to look toward the future. Dobbs is a sophomore, while both the injured Kaheaku-Enhada and Bryant, the slotback who has filled in behind center, are seniors and set to move on.


This upcoming game also precedes the December 6th game with Army that ends the regular season, so no doubt Navy is trying to get their young QB more game experience before that annual epic meeting.

On the other side of the field, the Huskies counter with an offense that matches Navy's average of 28 points a game. They split their yardage almost equally between the air and ground, and average 342 yards per contest. Freshman QB Chandler Harnish has done a nice job running the offense and really picked up his game last week.

This will be the third of four games that the Huskies play on a Tuesday or Wednesday night this month, two of the least common football days of the week. It's part of an ongoing effort of the MAC to garner national attention. With a 10-0 Ball State team as the conference's centerpiece, the MAC has received a disproportionate number of nationally televised games due to the open slot in TV programming for football on those nights. Ultimately the Tuesday game means for Navy a few extra days of rest, but with the Huskies practice schedule now set up squarely around mid-week contests, it should provide the Huskies with an additional edge here.

While Navy is looking to the future a bit, it is all about NOW for Northern Illinois. Armed with a slogan of "Battle for a Bowl", motivation shouldn't be an issue for the Huskies in this final regular season contest. A victory gives the Huskies a 7-5 record, greatly enhancing their chances for a third bowl bid in the last five years.

First-year coach Jerry Kill acknowledged the importance of beating Navy.

"In a lot of ways, this is a bowl game," Kill said. "When you have a chance to play a team the caliber of the U.S. Naval Academy in your own stadium, it's a tremendous opportunity. I have such respect for the young men in that program, and I just hope we have a great crowd to come out to honor their team, cheer on the Huskies, and celebrate our seniors."

Here, we are going to play ON a "bubble team" vs. an opponent in or likely to be in a bowl game or a foe that doesn't have a chance of a bowl game in a non-rivalry game. Teams fighting for bowl eligibility should be much more motivated than those teams already in and just trying to stay healthy, and against opponents that are already thinking about next year.

In looking at some technical information, we show Navy at 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings with MAC teams, 0-5 SU (-11.2 ppg) & 0-5 ATS (-7.8) vs. non-Armed Forces teams playing with revenge since 2001, and 0-3 ATS this season with more than 6 days rest.

Meanwhile, Northern Illinois is 3-0 ATS in their final home game the last 3 years, 5-0 ATS in their final home game with less than 7 SU wins and less than 13 days rest, 7-0 ATS (+9.6 ppg) in their final game and not favored by 25+ points or off 6 SU wins, and 5-0 ATS (+13.2 ppg) with revenge vs. opponents with the same or fewer SU wins on the season.

The Huskies also are active for NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM showing that after a road favorite win to get to 6 wins on the season, hosts in their final home game have played very strongly looking to solidify their bowl possibilities. This POWER SYSTEM states:

From Game 11 on, play ON a team in its Last Home Game (not a favorite of 9+ points or underdog of more than 8 points) with 6 season SU wins off a road favorite/pick ‘em SU win.

Since 1989, these teams are a fabulous 16-0 ATS, while crushing the spread by 2 TDs per game on average.

With the additional motivation and more experienced QB on their side, we look for a very determined Northern Illinois team to get that coveted 7th win of the season, while they cover this small number.


PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: NORTHERN ILLINOIS 31 NAVY 24

[Mr. IWS]

Lenny Del Genio's 20* NBA Non-Conf Game of the Month **8-2 L2 Days**


Pacers

[Mr. IWS]

John Ryan

Game: Golden State Warriors at Washington Wizards
Prediction: Golden State Warriors

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Golden State Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 31-8 for 80% ATS since 2002. Play on favorites that are terrible defensive teams allowing 103+ points/game on the season and after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half. AiS also projects an 85% probability that Washington will not hit better than 30% of their 3 point attempts and they are just 4-14 ATS when that occurs in a game over the past 3 seasons. Here is a second system that has gone 24-5 ATS for 83% since 2002. Play on road teams that are explosive offensive teams scoring 103+ points/game on the season and after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half.

[Mr. IWS]

Vegas Sports Experts

10* Take Northern Illinois (-3) over Navy (NCAA Power Play)
7:00 PM EST

Navy
• 0-2 SU & ATS when the line is between +3 and -3
• 1-5 ATS vs. MAC Conference Opponents the last 3 seasons
• 1-4 ATS coming off a game with one or less turnovers
• Allowing an average of 29 ppg on defense in road games this season



Bonus Play

5* Take Ball State (-10.5) over Western Michigan

[Mr. IWS]

Marc Lawrence | CFB Side
dime bet301 W. Michigan 10.5 (-110) Sportsbetting.com vs 302 Ball St.


Analysis: Play On: Western Michigan

[Mr. IWS]

Dave Cokin

(519) SAINT LOUIS
(520) NEBRASKA
Take "(519) SAINT LOUIS"
It's Year Two as head man at Saint Louis for coaching wiz Rick Majerus. Looks to me like the Billikens are going to a pain in the neck on a regular basis, even though they aren't real talented. They will frustrate opponents with their methodical pace and undisciplined adversaries will pay the price. I think this team is a bit undervalued right now, so I'll opt for Saint Louis plus the generous spot tonight as they take on Nebraska.

[Mr. IWS]

PickLogic’s Pick:

Game: Golden State Warriors at Washington Wizards
Sport: National Basketball Association
Date: Tuesday, November 25, 2008
Time: 4:05 PM Pacific time
Selection: OVER the "total" of 210, -110
Wager: 1 unit (Last night was a winner) so its still 1 unit

[Mr. IWS]

Jr. Sports

NCAA HOOPS

25 units - Penn State

[Mr. IWS]

ATS Lock Club
4 Ball ST. -10.5
4 Notre Dame +3
3 Syracuse +4

ATS Financial Package
3 N.Illinois -3
3 Cavaliers -8
3 Troy +1

[Mr. IWS]

Kelso College FB 11/25
3 units W Mich +10.5
3 units Navy +3