12-15-08

[Mr. IWS]

asa goy
7 phily under

[Mr. IWS]

Marc Lawrence's Playbook

Monday, December 15th
PHILADELPHIA over Cleveland by 10

Now that was the Eagles we’ve all grown to admire. A convincing 20-14
victory at New York against the Giants as 7-point dogs puts them back in
the playoff picture. And their 13-2 ATS mark in games after taking on the
G-Men is impressive. What we don’t like, though, is the severe role change
in this contest. That and the fact that Cleveland coach Romeo ‘Lame Duck’
Crennel is 8-0 ATS in games off a loss of 17 or more points. He’s also 3-
0-1 ATS as a dog of more than 7 points in NFC frays. With Philly off the
NYG revenge win and having season-ending division revenge games up
next with Washington and Dallas, the points become the play here tonight.
Make it a Brownie Monday.

[Mr. IWS]

Marc Lawrence's Playbook

Monday, December 15

NBA
Charlotte over ATLANTA by 7
The Bobcats are back on the road – right where we like ‘em – in a neat
revenge situation here tonight. Charlotte lost on this fl oor, 88-83, earlier
this year as 8-point dogs and they now stand 11-6 SU and 12-5 ATS all-time
against the Hawks. Catching Atlanta off a revenger here Saturday night
against Cleveland and having a revenger on deck with Boston makes this
game the perfect revenge sandwich setup. Hawks’ pitiful 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS
mark in games after the Cavaliers clinches it.

[Mr. IWS]

EXPERT: Lee Kostroski
TITLE: 10* NFL Total of the Month - 83% run!
REASON FOR PICK: PLAY ON 10* Under the total, Cleveland vs. Philadelphia, 8:30 PM EST

Cleveland’s offensive struggles are the main reason we are taking the UNDER on this game. With Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn both sidelined with injuries, the Browns will start Ken Dorsey at quarterback for the second straight week. Last week in a 9-28 loss to the Titans, Dorsey was a mere 22/43 for 150 yards and 1 interception. We don’t see his production improving this week vs. a stingy Eagles defense. Even before Dorsey was handed the starting job, the Browns were struggling to score points. They have totaled just 21 points in the past three weeks (just 7 points per game). Their total yardage numbers the last three games are 240, 192 and 178. The Cleveland offense has been horrendous and now they face off against the 4th ranked defense in the NFL. The Eagles stop unit has completely shutdown two of the best offenses in the NFL the last two weeks. They held Arizona to just 20 points and 260 total yards two weeks ago. Last Sunday they topped the Giants 20-14. New York put together only 211 yards of total offense against this red hot defense. Not only that, their 14 points were even a bit deceiving as they scored one TD on a 71-yard blocked field goal return and the other TD came with just 20 seconds remaining in the game.
Back to the Browns and their defense which has actually been playing fairly well. Before giving up 28 points last week to the Titans, the Browns held Houston to just 16 points and Indianapolis to just 10 in back to back weeks. Cleveland is actually 3rd in the entire NFL in defensive efficiency allowing just one point for every 17 yards gained by their opponent. They have allowed 17 points or less in six of their last ten games. This team is decent on defense and really bad on offense. That combination leads to low scoring games.
The Eagles were in shambles after their 29 point loss to the Ravens, but as we mentioned, they bounced back nicely with big wins against the Cardinals and the Giants the last two weeks. Philly has been riding on the back of Brian Westbrook for the last two weeks as he has totaled 240 yards rushing. Eagle coach Andy Reid has really decided to lean on the run down the stretch and that has amounted to 81 rushes in the last two games. Don’t expect him to change his philosophy which has led to two straight wins. With the Browns ability to stop the pass (Cleveland has allowed an average of 185 yards passing the past three weeks, allowing just 3 touchdowns and forcing 6 interceptions), we will get an over abundance of the Philly ground game here.
Philly doesn’t have the strongest receiving corps to begin with, and they will have to use Westbrook a lot to consistently move the ball in this game. Running the ball will speed the game up and keep the score low. Last week, the Titans ran the ball 43 times for 235 yards in their 28-9 win. Both teams are a combined 11-2 UNDER in their last 13 games in December and we see that trend continuing on Monday night. Look for Philly to grab a lead and just sit on it using their running game. Go with the UNDER.
Best of Luck, Lee.

[Mr. IWS]

RON RAYMOND’S BROWNS VS. EAGLES WINNER!
Pick # 1 Cleveland Browns (15.5)

[Mr. IWS]

Tom Stryker

32-9 ATS System Play

Philadelphia

[Mr. IWS]

Ron Raymond

Browns vs Eagles Winner!
Cleveland Browns (15.5)

[Mr. IWS]

Computer Crushers

7000* College Hoops Crusher Mega Winner
520 Syracuse-13 7:00 EST

9000* NFL Computer Crusher Totals Play of the Year
Under 40 Cleveland + Philadelphia 8:35 EST

[Mr. IWS]

RAS

UC Davis -1

[Mr. IWS]

Kelso

25 Units
Eagles (-16) over Browns
8:30 PM -- Lincoln Financial Field
Philadelphia by 27-28
TV: ESPN Comments: The three major factors to consider when handicapping this game are (1) the fact Philadelphia needs to keep winning to keep its playoff hopes alive, (2) the number of injuries Cleveland has and (3) the weather. The Eagles (7-5-1) are chasing the New York Giants and the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC East for a playoff spot and simply cannot afford to lose. The incentive could not be stronger and the Eagles are playing as if they want it. Now, for those Cleveland injuries. Because of injuries the Browns (4-9) are down to third-string quarterback Ken Dorsey and will also be without running back Jerome Harrison. That does not bode well for a Cleveland team that has not scored a single touchdown in their last three games and scored a total of only 21 points on nine field goals in those games. The weather is supposed to be dreadful, with a 70% chance of rain, and that should hold the score down considerably, I look for the Eagles to open up a comfortable lead and then just coast home, knowing next week they have a showdown game at Washington.
Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from the South at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 50.

25 Units
Browns/Eagles UNDER 40 Points
8:30 PM -- Lincoln Financial Field
37 or less points to be scored

Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from the South at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 50.

25
75-Unit Side And Total Parlay

Eagles (-16) over Browns
Browns/Eagles UNDER 40 Points

[Mr. IWS]

ATS lock club has 4unit under 40clev/philli

[Mr. IWS]

Ted Sevransky

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Sacramento Kings
PICK: Over

Both the T-wolves and the Kings have been bogged down offensively in recent ballgames, facing some of the toughest defensive teams in the NBA. Minnesota failed to get out of the 80’s against the Lakers and Spurs in their last two games. Sacramento hoisted a whopping 98 shots against the Knicks on Saturday, but connected on only 36% of those attempts, including an awful 3-23 from three point land, managing only 90 in an ugly home loss to the Knicks.

Both Minnesota and Sacramento are looking to push the pace against opposing teams that are willing to run with them. New T-wolves head coach Kevin McHale: “We’ve got to get some pace in the game offensively. It’s an offense that should flow, and you shouldn’t have to look over at the coach very much. You should be up and down the floor….I like the versatility of the team. You know, Mike Miller can bring it down the floor. Rashad McCants can bring it down the floor. (Randy) Foye can bring it down the floor. (Ryan) Gomes can bring it down and get into operating spots. That's the vision when we talked about the team and the players, and that's how we're going to play.”

After getting booed out of the gym in their 24 point home loss to the Knicks on Saturday, I expect a far more focused performance from the Kings tonight. We saw this team beat the Lakers outright as double digit home underdogs, then hang tough with LA in the revenge rematch at the Staples Center last week, scoring 103 and 113 in those two ballgames. Expect a similar pace tonight between these two struggling teams, in a contest that we can expect to go up and Over the total. Take the Over

[Mr. IWS]

akmens

cbb

10* cal-riverside -3

nba

10* bucks +5

nhl

10* san jose -180

nfl

10* eagles under 40

[Mr. IWS]

RON RAYMOND’S 5* NBA BEST BET WINNER
Pick # 1 New Jersey Nets (4.5)


RON RAYMOND'S 5* NHL UNDERDOG PICK OF THE NIGHT
Pick # 1 Los Angeles Kings (170)




RON RAYMOND’S 5* CBB BEST BET WINNER
Pick # 1 Youngstown State / Kent State Under 138.5 -110

[Mr. IWS]

Patron

10000 on philly eagles in the first half -9.5

[Mr. IWS]

Matt Far go

Game: Cleveland State at Syracuse Dec 15 2008 7:00PM
Prediction: Cleveland State

Reason: Syracuse enters this game off a big win against Long Beach St. on Saturday and now turns right around to play a much better opponent and one that matches up very well. Syracuse looks to go 10-0 for the first time in nine years and it is being asked to lay a very sizable number again. The Orange covered that game against the 49ers but they are just 1-3 ATS on the season when laying double-digits as the first three games resulted in victories but only by an average of just six ppg.

Cleveland St. is also coming off a win on Saturday at Marist and it wasn't even close as the Vikings rolled to a 19-point victory. Cleveland St. was voted as the preseason pick to win the Horizon League and it has gotten off to a solid 6-4 start by playing a schedule ranked 65th in the nation. The Vikings feature two of the best players in the conference in forward J'Nathan Bullock, the Horizon Preseason Player of the Year and guard Cedric Jackson, who was voted on the All-Horizon First Team.

The Vikings rely on a strong defense and that has been the case all year as they are allowing 56.4 ppg on 37.1 percent shooting. They have an 84.4 percent defensive efficiency rating which is easily best in their conference and 20th in the nation. Syracuse is right there as well with an 87.5 rating but that has come against a schedule that is ranked 225th so the numbers are no doubt skewed. Cleveland St. forces turnovers on 27.8 percent of possessions which is 9th in the country.

For playing such a soft schedule, Syracuse turns the ball over way too much and it is giving it up on 20.7 percent of its possessions. The assist/turnover ratio is at 1.33 which is good but the defense allows a ratio of 1.27 which is horrible. The Orange are forcing just 12.5 turnovers per game and they are forcing turnovers only 18.7 percent of the time. Those percentages are not going to get it done in the Big East and they aren?t going to aide in trying to cover this huge number. 5* Cleveland St. Vikings

[Mr. IWS]

John Ryan

Game: Colorado Avalanche at Detroit Red Wings Dec 15 2008 7:05PM
Prediction: Colorado Avalanche

Reason: Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Colorado in the NHL ? Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 58-62 making 37.8 units since 2002. Play against home teams against the money line off a road win by 1 goal and with a winning record on the season playing a losing team. Here is a second system that has gone 211-215 making 75.1 units since 2002. Play on road teams against the money line well rested team playing only their 2nd game in 5 days, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season. Here is a third system that has gone 21-17 making 12.5 units since 2002. Play against home teams against the money line with a poor starting goalie sporting a save percentage of <= 89.5% of shots against him and a hot offensive team with 5 straight games with 30 or more shots on goal. Colorado is also in a strong role for this game noting that they are 23-12 against the money line (+14.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Colorado is also a strong 49-27 against the money line (+20.9 Units) in road games after a close loss by 1 goal in their previous game since 1996. Take Colorado.

[Mr. IWS]

Lenny Del Genio | NBA Sides
double-dime bet516 SAC -4.0 (-110) BetUS vs 515 MIN
Analysis:
Play on Sacramento at 10:35 ET.



Lenny Del Genio's 15* Western Conf Game of the Week --

Lenny Del Genio | NBA Sides
double-dime bet512 DAL -2.0 (-110) BetUS vs 511 DEN
Analysis:
Play on Dallas at 8:35 ET

[Mr. IWS]

Ted Sevransky

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Sacramento Kings
PICK: Over

Both the T-wolves and the Kings have been bogged down offensively in recent ballgames, facing some of the toughest defensive teams in the NBA. Minnesota failed to get out of the 80’s against the Lakers and Spurs in their last two games. Sacramento hoisted a whopping 98 shots against the Knicks on Saturday, but connected on only 36% of those attempts, including an awful 3-23 from three point land, managing only 90 in an ugly home loss to the Knicks.

Both Minnesota and Sacramento are looking to push the pace against opposing teams that are willing to run with them. New T-wolves head coach Kevin McHale: “We’ve got to get some pace in the game offensively. It’s an offense that should flow, and you shouldn’t have to look over at the coach very much. You should be up and down the floor….I like the versatility of the team. You know, Mike Miller can bring it down the floor. Rashad McCants can bring it down the floor. (Randy) Foye can bring it down the floor. (Ryan) Gomes can bring it down and get into operating spots. That's the vision when we talked about the team and the players, and that's how we're going to play.”

After getting booed out of the gym in their 24 point home loss to the Knicks on Saturday, I expect a far more focused performance from the Kings tonight. We saw this team beat the Lakers outright as double digit home underdogs, then hang tough with LA in the revenge rematch at the Staples Center last week, scoring 103 and 113 in those two ballgames. Expect a similar pace tonight between these two struggling teams, in a contest that we can expect to go up and Over the total. Take the Over

[Mr. IWS]

Kelso BB 12/15
5 units Cal Riverside -3
5 units Raptors -4