10-23-08

[Mr. IWS]

M@linsky

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4* Auburn +3 released wed morning

[Mr. IWS]

kelso......THE WORLD SERIES.....5 units Devilrays {J.Shields} (-150) over Phillies {B.Myers} 8:29 PM --

[Mr. IWS]

kelso
10 unit wv
5 unit new mex

[Mr. IWS]

Tommy Rider

**2 UNIT PLAY**
West Virginia -3 vs Auburn

[Mr. IWS]

King Creole

Air Force / New Mexico Over 45
1* Play on: OVER THE TOTAL

[Mr. IWS]

Greg Shaker | CFB Side
double-dime bet104 West Virginia -3.0 (-110) BetUS vs 103 Auburn
Analysis: NCAAF: Auburn Tigers at West Virginia Mountaineers - West Virginia -3 -110 | Unit Value: 2 UNIT "Beatdown"
Game Date: 10/23/2008
Note: It is quite unusual for me to play against an SEC School in a non-conference game but there are plenty of reasons to do just that tonight. The loss that Auburn suffered to LSU on 9/20 was a hard blow for this team and they have been in a tailspin ever sice. They have fired their offensive coordinator, Tuberville is already rumored to be looking for other coaching jobs. Focus has got to be a problem right now for them. They also have serious injuries on the defensive side of the field. That was very evident last game verses Arkansas, allowing the Hogs to score often back at home and ended the game with a negative 223 yard mark. This short week of preparation does not allow them to heal from the loss of personel and they will play one of the more prolific offenses in the country tonight. The Auburn problems do not end on defense. They have a limited QB that has thrown more INT's than TD's. We all know the problems the Tigers have scoring this year and playing a bunch of fired up Mountaineers tonight is not what the Doctor ordered. Consider this: Auburn has had serious turnover issues this year. The Home team is 46-2 last 48 games when they force more TO's than they have. Our team loves to play SEC Schools and they have won their last 4 times when doing so. Morgantown is going to be a loud and uncomfortable place to be tonight for Auburn so I will lay the 3 points.

[Mr. IWS]

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons | CFB Side
double-dime bet105 New Mexico 5.0 (-110) Bodog vs 106 Air Force
Analysis: NEW MEXICO ? Air Force has covered four straight in this series but New Mexico did win last season?s match-up straight-up to put an end to the Falcons three consecutive straight-up wins in this series. One of the key advantages for the Lobos in matching up with Air Force is that New Mexico head coach Rocky Long has great knowledge of the option. Even though the Falcons have managed to get the cover in recent meetings with the Lobos, New Mexico actually has done a good job against the Air Force option attack. Offensively, the Lobos certainly got to ?warm up? their attack last week as they scored 70 points in totally dominating San Diego State. While New Mexico comes in off of an easy win, the Falcons barely squeaked by UNLV last week in a one-point non-covering win. Air Force did allow over 400 yards of offense last week and the key was the success of their ground game but that same option attack will not fare as well against the Lobos defense. Also, Air Force has failed to cover 6 of the last 7 times in the week before the Army game. Even though Falcons head coach denies it, the service games do mean a lot to this academy school. Also, the Lobos were able to force a lot of fumbles against the Falcons in last season?s match-up and they will look to disrupt the Air Force offense in the same manner in this season?s match-up. Also, last season we saw dropped passes cost the Lobos a ton of yardage through the air and yet New Mexico still hung on for the win. Additionally, the Falcons first touchdown in that game (among 31 points they scored) was truly a gift after the Lobos fumbled insider their own 20 yard line. The point being that New Mexico?s defense played quite well in last season?s game and this season they have even more team speed! This has been a key to the Lobos defensive success this season and it will be a key to them once again shutting down the Falcons option attack on Thursday night. That will lead to a cover and, quite likely, an outright win for the Lobos!

[Mr. IWS]

Matty O'Shea


Triple-Dime Bet

West Virginia -3.0 vs Auburn

[Mr. IWS]

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons | NHL Money Line
double-dime bet12 COL (-143)BetUS vs 11 EDM
Analysis:
AVALANCHE ? The Avalanche lost their home opener to the Bruins on a late goal. Since that early loss they have won three of their last five even though four of those five games were on the road. Now the Avs get a chance to avenge one of those road losses as they host the Oilers. The Avalanche lost at Edmonton 3-2 on Sunday October 12th. That?s the only time this season that the potent Colorado offensive attack has been held under four goals and tonight, at home, the Avalanche will do something about it! The Avs will take advantage of an Oilers club that is playing the second night of a back to back situation and that could already be looking ahead to a big battle at Vancouver on Saturday. Yes, this is also a division rival tonight but the Oilers are especially mindful of their rivals up in Western Canada ? the Canucks and the Flames. The problem for the Oilers is they?ve come out as the flatter team in recent games and have had to overcome that. In their game last night they couldn?t do that against Chicago. Even if the Oilers regroup and hit the ice with a lot of emotion tonight, it?s going to be hard for them to overcome the energy that the ?amped-up? Avs will bring to the ice tonight. Colorado is seeking revenge and they are a very tough team to beat at The Pepsi Center. Also, unlike the Oilers, Colorado is rested here as they have been off since Monday. The Oil won just 18 road games last season and the Avs won 27 games at home. Factoring that in along with the situational edges that favor Colorado here and the Avalanche are worth laying the price in this spot. Their money line is quite fair considering the situation. The Oilers special teams units have struggled in recent games, after a strong start to the season, and look for the Avalanche to take advantage of that tonight. Lay the price with Colorado!

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Bonds | CFB Side
double-dime bet104 West Virginia -2.5 (-110) BetUS vs 103 Auburn
Analysis:
Not willing to fall into the trap of playing the SEC against other conferences in this particular spot. Auburn doesn't normally travel in non-conference games and they walk into a tough place to play on Thursday night.



West Virginia has won four straight over the SEC and Auburn's Tommy Tuberville is 1-2 versus the Big East in his career.



Have to love that West Virginia is 111-25-4 all-time in October home games and 46-2 since 2002 when winning the turnover battle. With the Tigers undergoing a change in offensive identity - it leaves it wide open for a few turnovers to be created.



This isn't the Auburn and West Virginia teams that the public has been use to seeing over the past few years, but have to like one of the better home teams in America in this spot, as Auburn will wonder why its in West Virginia on Thursday night.

[Mr. IWS]

Bob Majors | CFB Side
double-dime bet103 Auburn -3.0 (-115) BetUS vs 104 West Virginia
Analysis:
West Virgina Mountaineers host the Auburn Tiger in a Thursday evening matchup.

The Tigers have a solid defense and no offense and the Mountaineers have a good offense and no defense.

The Tigers are 9th in the country in scoring defense allowing 13.1 ppg.

Auburn is 6-1 in Thursday night games and are on a 3 game winning streak; 18-7 ATS in their las 25 games in October; and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall.

The Mountaineers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games; 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games on turf; and 1-4 ATS in the last five games overall. They are also 0-4 ATS in the last 4four games following a bye week.

I feel the defense will prevail and Auburn will keep it close. Take the generous points and run to the bank.

[Mr. IWS]

Vegas Sports Experts

The VSE Thursday MLB Power Play is:

10* Take Tampa Bay (-145) over Philadelphia (Power Play)
8:20 PM EST

Philadelphia
• 4-12 in road games when the total is between 8 and 8.5 runs
• Brett Myers is 3-8 in road games with an ERA of 6.21

[Mr. IWS]

Vegas Sports Experts

The VSE NCAA Football Power Play for Thursday is:

10* Take West Virginia (-3) over Auburn (NCAA Power Play)
7:45 PM EST

West Virginia
• 14-1 SU coming off a loss against the spread
• 15-2 SU in home games the last 3 seasons
• 8-0 SU when playing in the month of October
• 17-2 SU after allowing 6 points or less in the last game

[Mr. IWS]

Pro Sports Plays

Thursday NCAA Football

Take West Virginia (-3) over Auburn
(10* Top NCAA Play)
7:45 PM EST

Auburn has lost 6 consecutive games against the spread and they have also lost 10 of the last 15 games against the spread when the total posted is 42 points or less.

[Mr. IWS]

Winning Angle Sports

Your Thursday Night NCAA Selections is:

Play on West Virginia (-3) over Auburn*
7:45 P.M. EST Kick-Off

West Virginia has won 8 consecutive games when playing in the month of October and they have also won 14 of the last 16 non-conference games. West Virginia has won 15 of the last 17 home games and they are only allowing 11 points a game on defense at home this season. Meanwhile, Auburn has lost 6 consecutive games against the spread.

Play on West Virginia minus the points on Thursday

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Play on Air Force (-5) over New Mexico*
8:00 P.M. EST Kick-Off

Air Force has won 5 consecutive home games when the total posted is between 42.5 and 49 points and they have also won 5 of the last 6 games coming off a conference road win. Air Force has won 11 of the last 15 games as a favorite and they have also won 5 oft the last 6 games vs. New Mexico at home.

Play on Air Force minus the points on Thursday

[Mr. IWS]

Mike Lineback

Auburn / W. Virginia Under

[Mr. IWS]

Marc Lawrence

Never Lost College Football Super Pick Super Play!

Play On: New Mexico

When the Lobos take on the Falcons at the Air Force Academy Thursday night they will do so knowing New Mexico is 12-1 ATS on the road off back-to-back ATS wins under head coach Rocky Long, including 11-0 when off a conference game. With Air Force just 1-3 ATS as a favorite this season and the Lobos riding a 4-game ATS win streak, look for New Mexico to keep Long's streak in tact tonight.

[Mr. IWS]

MATT RIVERS:



100,000? West Virginia

2. 50,000? Phillies

1. Both Auburn and West Virginia have been overly disappointing this season but both also have an upside as good as most other teams in the nation on one side of the ball. Tommy Tuberville's gang has been very very offensively challenged but boast a defense that may be second to none. Meanwhile Pat White and the extremely athletic and fast Mountaineer offense has not been as dominant as most thought they would be thanks to injuries and just flat out underachieving.

Morgantown is one of the tougher places to play in the country. Routinely teams come in there and leave limping after getting trounced. I'm not sure if Auburn's defense will get trounced as they are awesome but it is not easy at all to try and play for 60 minutes against White, Noel Devine and the ultra tricky WV offense. No doubt Bill Stewart is not a great coach and the Mounties are somewhat vulnerable overall, compared to the past few seasons with Rich Rodriguez running the show, but in college football the home field is as important as in any sport and on the road I do not see the Tigers being able to muster enough offense.

No matter how good of a defense a team has one has to still expect White and the home boys to be able to move the ball a bit and score their 20 or so points. To fully keep them down is pretty much impossible and on the other extreme I do not see Auburn being able to do that much against what is a decent enough Mountaineer defense.

Auburn just failed to score in the final three quarters in that loss at Vanderbilt and in that last game blew a big lead at home in a game they were thoroughly dominated in against what is a pretty dreadful Arkansas squad.

West Virginia has at least won three in a row, are at home where they are still perfect and are just too talented offensively to not be able to score more points than an opponent that is just brutal offensively.

2. James Shields has been great at home and the Rays are definitely no joke which they have proven all season long but a little plus money here on the Fightin' Phils is enough for me.

Longoria, Crawford, Pena and the Rays on their home fast track have been as good as any team in the game. But Charlie Manual's squad has been the best team around on the road and are not exactly going to be intimidated by a few cowbells and fake fans down at the Trop. Rollins, Utley and Howard are stars, if not full fledged superstars and Brett Myers has been great since the stint in the Minors. I'm not at all calling this a lock of my life but plus money with all of the positive factors going the way of the Phils is enough for me.

[Mr. IWS]

John Ryan

Philadelphia Phillies at Tampa Bay Rays
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Philadelphia - This is a simple way to look at this game. one team has won 3 of their last 4 and the other has lost 3 of four. Despite being 0-13 with RISP, the Phillies took game 1. What I was most impressed with was that they had the lead off batter on base in the first 5 innings. This Phillie team is mentally tough and it is for that reason they will win the series. The Philly bullpen is literally lights out with Madson and Lidge. Madson has undergone a weight and stretching program this season and it has paid off big time. He was once a 90MPH max pitcher and last night you saw him consistently at 96 MPH and topped off at 98 MPH. The combination of Madson's power and then Lidge is going to be too much for TB to overcome. AiS shows an 85% probability that Myers will complete 6 innings or more and should this happen the Phillies have a 90% probability of winning the game. The pressure is big time on TB and they are wearing the role of favorite - something new for them and something they are not comfortable with at all. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has produced a record of 38-17 making 26.8 units since 2002. Play against home teams with a money line of -100 to -150 after 2 straight games where they stranded 5 or less runners on base and with the game being played on Thursday. Myers is an impressive 12-2 (+13.3 Units) against the money line in road games versus teams outscoring opposition by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season since 1997; 15-5 (+9.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team sporting a win percentage of 54% to 62% in the second half of the season this season. Manuel is a strong 43-21 making 24.2 units this season and 63-30 making 36.2 units over the past 3 seasons. Take the Phils to go up 2-0.

[Mr. IWS]

Johnny Guild

Auburn Tigers at West Virginia Mountaineers

The Mountaineers have won their last three games and are 4-0 at home. Expect a close game in Morgantown. Auburn’s powerful defense is 9th in the country in scoring defense allowing just 13.1 points per game, but will be confronting West Virginia high power offense that is 14th in the nation in rushing at 224.8 yards per game, besides having a solid defense. The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games, while the Mountaineers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 overall. Take the home team!

Play:West Virginia -3