10-25-08

[Mr. IWS]

DOC

4 Unit Play. #61 Take Oklahoma State Cowboys over Texas Longhorns (Saturday 3:30 pm ABC) The Horns just keeping rolling along having beaten Oklahoma and Missouri by double-digits in consecutive weeks. Both of those wins needed high emotional efforts and I wonder if they can get up yet again. Now they face a Cowboys that is loose and high flying with an explosive offense and a much improved defense. Factor all that plus revenge after losing to Texas in Stillwater last year, 38-35. OK State also beat Missouri, but that came in Columbia. Both teams have yet to lose a game against the spread, so something has to give and this writer is going with the dog, call the upset here! OK State 38, Texas 35.

[Mr. IWS]

DOC

4 Unit Play. #76 Take Pittsburgh Panthers over Rutgers Scarlet Knights (Saturday 3:30 pm ESPN 360) This is just a case of two teams going in opposite directions. True, the Knights beat Connecticut last week; however, when I looked over the stats, the offense was not that impressive. Now they face a Panther team that has the most talented since Coach Wannstedt took over. The were shocked in the opener by Bowling Green, but since then it has been a success and now return home after three road games. This is a game they must win since the schedule gets much tougher in November. The Knights have a three game winning streak over Pittsburgh, but that ends here, as Pittsburgh starts to play to their potential and have a season everyone expects them to have. Pitt rolls! Pittsburgh 27, Rutgers 14.

[Mr. IWS]

DOC
BIG 12 GAME OF YEAR

6 Unit Play. #30 Take Nebraska Cornhuskers over Baylor Bear (Saturday 12:30 pm Versus) Big XII Game of the Year. Huskers still do not have a defense to brag about they seem to be getting better each week. As for the offense, they are much improved over the Bill Callahan years with more balance. Nebraska will be able to move the ball through the air considering the Bears terrible passing defense. Every team this year has stung them good including Northwestern State and Washington State, two of the worst teams in football. The Huskers have come off of two road games and now return home since that crushing loss to Missouri, 52-17. Coach Pelini apologized to the state for that performance and that loss is still in the player’s minds and expect an all-out effort on Saturday. Nebraska has played a brutal schedule and that has prepared them well to pound Baylor, as NU comes to play. Nebraska 48, Baylor 14.

[Mr. IWS]

Tommy Rider | CFB Side
triple-dime bet157 Georgia 2.0 (-110) Bodog vs 158 LSU
Analysis:
***3 UNIT UNDERDOG GAME OF THE MONTH***




Sat, 10/25/08 - 12:00 PMTommy Rider | CFB Total
double-dime bet178 Kansas / 177 Texas Tech Over 66.0 BetUS
Analysis: **2 UNIT PLAY** Analysis to come

[Mr. IWS]

Stephen Nover | CFB Side
double-dime bet131 Mississippi -5.0 (-110) Sportsbetting.com vs 132 Arkansas
Analysis:
Mississippi -5

Analysis: Look for Mississippi to cover this number in the Houston Nutt Bowl. Nutt will have his Ole Miss team more than ready returning to Arkansas, the school that fired him last year after 10 seasons in Fayetteville.

Nutt's Rebels are the more consistent and better team. They also have the better quarterback with Jevan Snead over Casey Dick.

Arkansas has been outscored, 87-21, in its two SEC home games this season. Mississippi was impressive in road conference games versus Florida and Alabama.

Arkansas has gotten better lately thanks to the running of Michael Smith. However, Smith suffered a concussion last week.

If he plays, his workload is going to be cut back. Ole Miss has a strong run defense, yielding just 3.2 yards per rush

[Mr. IWS]

RON RAYMOND'S 5* CFB GAME OF THE YEAR!!
Pick # 1 Virginia Tech (5.5)

[Mr. IWS]

Greg Shaker | CFB Total
triple-dime bet116 Indiana / 115 Northwestern Over 48.0 BetUS
Analysis: NCAAF: Northwestern Wildcats at Indiana Hoosiers - Over 48 -110 | Unit Value: 3 UNIT "Total Dominator)
Game Date: 10/25/2008
Note: Let's get this one now. These teams do not put their focus on defense and their numbers prove that. That is especially true of the Hoosiers who have allowed 31 points per game and have a run D just as bad as it gets. The Wildcats come into Bloomington as beat up on D as they have been this year. They have serious problems filling the gaps Saturday and they will face a Hoosier team that have a very balanced attack of run/pass. Even if these things were not the case this Saturday consider this. The last 8 Contests between these two have produced 51 Points or more. Most MUCH MORE. Teams that cannot stop the run leave themselves open to downfield passing, as the Linebackers have to over-commit to the possibility of the running game being used. Both of the QB's in this contest have proven that they can spread the field and we should see that Saturday. We should see some easy scores Saturday because of that. I have checked the longterm weather and the Bloomington area is expected to get some rain Friday and Friday nite. There is only a small chance of that happening gameday. A wet or not so perfect field can only help our chances of this one going OVER the total. For those of you that are getting in late, this line has moved to 49.5 at most books and is still a play at that level.

[Mr. IWS]

RJ_Bell | CFB Side
triple-dime bet155 Oklahoma St. 12.5 (-110) BetUS vs 156 Texas
Analysis:
CFB UNDERDOG GAME OF YEAR:

#155 OKLAHOMA ST +12.5 over Texas.

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Bonds | CFB Side
double-dime bet149 UCLA 17.0 (-110) Bodog vs 150 California
Analysis:
There's nobody better in the country in picking UCLA CBB/CFB games and I fully anticipate a great performance by the Bruins this week.



UCLA was up against it BIG TIME last week in pulling off a last minute drive against Stanford. The Cardinal wanted this game in a "major way" and head coach Jim Harbaugh was left stunned.



California is emotionally shattered after blowing a double-digit lead in the desert and now walks into its WORST ATS SITUATION - a double-digit favorite from mid-October on.



The Bears are 0-9 ATS in this situation the last three years and are also 0-8 ATS in their last eight games following a Pac-10 loss that saw them leading at halftime.



It will be UGLY - but the Bruins stay under the number here.



Sat, 10/25/08 - 7:45 PMJeff Bonds | CFB Side
triple-dime bet145 Alabama -5.0 (-110) BetUS vs 146 Tennessee
Analysis:
Alabama head coach Nick Saban will have his troops in top form on Saturday night, as they go into Neyland Stadium and face the Tennessee Volunteers.



Tennessee has yet to show anything against an opponent that has outclassed them on the football field, as Florida absolutely demolished this team and Georgia failed to blow them out because of poor offensive execution.



That will not be the case, as Saban wants the Tide to roll into Baton Rouge in two weeks with a perfect 9-0 record and a possible #1 label on its back. Full focus will be on getting a big win here, as they face an absolute cupcake next week for Homecoming.



Tennessee's wins read like this: UAB, NIU and Mississippi State......Wow.....That's a far cry for Alabama's big neutral site and road wins against Clemson (Before their meltdown) and Georgia.



Alabama QB John Parker Wilson will have no trouble making plays against a Tennessee D that he completed 32 of 46 passes against for 363 yards and three touchdowns last year.



Lay the number and don't fall into the SEC home underdog trap - Saban's not happy about his team's last two performances and they blow out Tennessee on Saturday.

[Mr. IWS]

northcoast

big dogs-

smu,
duke,
unlv,
utah state,
kan st.


big 10-nortwestern

pac 10-oregon

big east-south florida

big 12-missouri

[Mr. IWS]

BIG AL



3* San Jose St

3* Missouri

3* Wake Forest

3* Bowling Green

3* Tennessee

1* Arizona

1* Georgia Tech

1* Louisville

[Mr. IWS]

Spylock
Northwestern.....-8
Pitt....-9
N. Illinois....-8
Penn St......-2 1/2

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Bonds | CFB Side
double-dime bet149 UCLA 17.0 (-110) Bodog vs 150 California
Analysis:
There's nobody better in the country in picking UCLA CBB/CFB games and I fully anticipate a great performance by the Bruins this week.
UCLA was up against it BIG TIME last week in pulling off a last minute drive against Stanford. The Cardinal wanted this game in a "major way" and head coach Jim Harbaugh was left stunned.

California is emotionally shattered after blowing a double-digit lead in the desert and now walks into its WORST ATS SITUATION - a double-digit favorite from mid-October on.
The Bears are 0-9 ATS in this situation the last three years and are also 0-8 ATS in their last eight games following a Pac-10 loss that saw them leading at halftime.It will be UGLY - but the Bruins stay under the number here.





Jeff Bonds | CFB Side
triple-dime bet145 Alabama -5.0 (-110) BetUS vs 146 Tennessee
Analysis:
Alabama head coach Nick Saban will have his troops in top form on Saturday night, as they go into Neyland Stadium and face the Tennessee Volunteers.
Tennessee has yet to show anything against an opponent that has outclassed them on the football field, as Florida absolutely demolished this team and Georgia failed to blow them out because of poor offensive execution. That will not be the case, as Saban wants the Tide to roll into Baton Rouge in two weeks with a perfect 9-0 record and a possible #1 label on its back. Full focus will be on getting a big win here, as they face an absolute cupcake next week for Homecoming.
Tennessee's wins read like this: UAB, NIU and Mississippi State......Wow.....That's a far cry for Alabama's big neutral site and road wins against Clemson (Before their meltdown) and Georgia. Alabama QB John Parker Wilson will have no trouble making plays against a Tennessee D that he completed 32 of 46 passes against for 363 yards and three touchdowns last year.

Lay the number and don't fall into the SEC home underdog trap - Saban's not happy about his team's last two performances and they blow out Tennessee on Saturday

[Mr. IWS]

Dave M@linsky Saturday

4* Illinois -2.5 released tuesday
5* UNLV +23 released tuesday
4* Fresno St -14.5 released thursday
4* Alabama -5 released thursday
4* Ohio State +2.5 released tuesday
6* Colorado St -7.5 released tuesday
5* USC -15 released tuesday

more as they become available

4* Auburn +3 released Wed ( L )

[Mr. IWS]

Fairway Jay

20* GOY

Nevada

[Mr. IWS]

Colin Cowherd
He has:

Kentucky, Alabama, Okla St, Arizona, Penn State

[Mr. IWS]

ASA

College Football Picks
10/25/2008
11:30:00 AM Oklahoma Sooners (-18)
over KANSAS STATE WILDCATS
ASA 3-Star #159 Oklahoma (-18) over @ Kansas State - Saturday, Oct 25th 11:30 am CST

The Sooner offense has to be licking their chops when it comes to facing this porous KSU defense. The Cats stop unit has been terrible this year allowing nearly 200 YPG rushing and 240 yards passing. Those numbers rank them 106th in the nation in total defense and those were against mainly suspect offenses. KSU’s schedule has been very light with the exception of games @ Louisville and home vs. Texas Tech. Their 38-29 loss @ Louisville was dominated by the Cards outgaining the Wildcats by 234 yards. KSU’s home game vs. Texas Tech was a 58-28 loss and they allowed the Red Raiders 626 total yards! Other than that, the offenses they have faced have been average to below. Now they attempt to slow down an Oklahoma offense that averages nearly 50 PPG and ranks 4th nationally in yardage per game. Good luck with that. Last week the Sooners faced a pretty good Kansas defense and rolled up 674 yards. They were a bit flat coming off their showdown (and a loss) vs. Texas and still put up 45 points. Their defense was also flat and uncharacteristically allowed 35 points to a very good Kansas offense. That won’t happen this week vs. a KSU team that is one-dimensional on offense. The Cats can’t run the ball being out gained on the ground in 4 of their last 5 games. While KSU QB Josh Freeman is good, he won’t be able to do it all here vs. an angry OU defense that will want to make amends for last Saturday’s underachieving performance. The Sooners don’t mind the road at all where they are 23-6 SU their last 29. They are so good on offense and KSU is so bad on defense, we wouldn’t be surprised at all if OU doesn’t have to punt once in this game. The Sooners can score whatever they would like here and we look for them to get into the 50’s as they usually do. Kansas State won’t be able to keep up and Freeman will be forced into making tough throws to try and bring his team back resulting in turnovers. OU pulls away big time in the second half and wins easily getting the cover.


10/25/2008
12:00:00 PM ARMY BLACK KNIGHTS (-2)
over Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
ASA 4-Star #110 Army (-2) over Louisiana Tech, Saturday 12:00 pm CST, October 25th

Don’t look now but they always hard trying Cadets of Army are playing really solid football. After looking like a deer in headlights at the beginning of the season trying to run their new option offense, they now have it nearly perfected and it has showed on the field. It really started to click for this team during their trip to Texas A&M back on September 27th. They lost that game 21-17 but out gained the Aggies on their own turf racking up 280 yards rushing. Including that loss, Army is now 2-2 with their losses coming at A&M and at Buffalo in overtime. During that four game stretch where their option attack has really taken off, they rolled up 1,232 yards on 5.5 yards per carry. Army out rushed those four opponents by a combined 789 yards! This will be a tough trip for La. Tech. They are in the middle of their WAC schedule and getting up for a trip to play Army won’t be easy. Not only that, they are facing an offense that they NEVER see in the WAC. The high flying arial attacks in that conference are obviously nothing like the option attack they will face on Saturday. They have just one week to get ready for that offense which makes it tough, especially being a somewhat meaningless non-conference road game. The overall numbers say that Louisiana Tech has a solid run defense but we say otherwise. First of all, they haven’t played a really good running offense all season long. As we stated, the WAC is a pass happy league which often will make the defensive rush numbers look much better than they are. Army currently ranks 8th nationally in rushing at 253 YPG but as you saw earlier in our analysis, a majority of those numbers have come in the last four games so we actually have them higher than that right now. The best running offense that La. Tech has seen so far this year is Boise State and they average 142 YPG. The Bulldogs have thrown up a zippo on the road this year (0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS) getting beat by an average score of 30-6. They have Fresno State on deck which is a very important conference game. We simply don’t see them making this trip and being all that interested in this game. Army always gives 100% effort and they are playing much very well as of late. This all adds up to an Army win at home.


10/25/2008
2:30:00 PM GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS (-14)
over Virginia Cavaliers
ASA 5-Star #154 @Georgia Tech (-14) vs. Virginia Saturday, Oct 25 2:30 pm CST

We were on Virginia as a big play at home last weekend, however we’re going to do a 180 and play against them on Saturday. The Cavs have been on a nice roll winning three straight games after a rough start, however all of those games have been in the friendly confines of their home stadium. Now they must venture out on the road for the first time since September 27th! Not only that, they are coming off an overtime win vs. big time rival North Carolina. This week will be tough for UVA. The Cavaliers two road games this year were both blowout losses. They were destroyed at UConn 45-10 and were whipped at down trodden Duke 31-3. Inexperienced starting QB Marc Verica will be making just the third road start of his career. He has thrown 5 interceptions in his first two starts away from home. While he has started to come around and play well at home, we expect a struggle on Saturday. The Cavs have been out gained in their two road games by 810 to 477 total yards. Last week in their win over UNC, the Virginia threw up a red flag so to speak for this week’s contest against the Yellow Jackets. That’s because the Heels, who have an average running game, exploited the UVA defense for 166 yards on the ground. They now allow nearly 150 YPG on the ground and 4 YPC. That’s NOT where you want to struggle on defense when playing Georgia Tech. The Jackets have the 9th best rushing attack in the nation rolling up 248 YPG on the ground. Not only that, they have one of the best defenses in the country allowing their opponents only 254 total yards per game (5th in the nation). Despite being 6-1 on the season, this Tech team is REALLY flying under the radar. Their only loss was @ Virginia Tech where they were tripped up 20-17. In that game, however, the Jackets actually dominated out gained the Hokies by 140 yards. They had 278 yards rushing in that game against one of the better stop units in the country. The bumble bees should have a field day against UVA this weekend. This ACC battle has definitely gone the way of the home team. The host has now covered 11 of the last 13 in this series. We really like the “play against” situation with Virginia especially vs. the under rated Georgia Tech team. Lay the points.


10/25/2008
6:00:00 PM Mississippi Rebels (-6.5)
over ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS
ASA 3-Star #131 Mississippi (-6.5) @ Arkansas Saturday, October 25 – 6:00 PM CST

The last few years, Ole Miss was an afterthought opponent for the top SEC talent; however, Houston Nutt has transformed the Rebels into a legitimate opponent to any SEC team, and is proving that they shouldn’t be overlooked. Earlier this season, Ole Miss marched into the unfriendly confines of Florida and beat the Gators 31-30. Since then, they have played two tough games against South Carolina and Alabama, and have come up short twice. I can’t overstate the fact that Nutt has his players motivated and playing hard every week, and this week will be more important than ever, as Nutt will be facing his former team and Alma-Mater, Arkansas. Expect Ole Miss to get the win on the road here against the Razorbacks. Arkansas is really hurting from the loss of last years playmakers on offense (McFadden, Jones, Monk), and while RB Michael Smith is having a solid season, there is little talent around him. The Razorbacks rank 100th in the NCAA in points scored this season, averaging just 19 points per game. Their defense has been just as bad, ranking 109th, giving up 33 points per game. The Rebels also have a big advantage at quarterback, where Jevan Snead is having a breakout year for Ole Miss, and Razorback QB Casey Dick continues to struggle. The Rebels are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings vs. Arkansas; however, those 4 Razorback wins were under coach Houston Nutt. Now, it’s Ole Miss who has the upper-hand, they are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games, and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 overall; while Arkansas is headed the opposite direction, going just 2-5 ATS in their last 7. Arkansas will see how the Rebels players respond the Nutt’s coaching and wish they never would’ve let their old coach go. Go with the Rebels with the points.

[Mr. IWS]

Indian Cowboy

Kentucky Wildcats +25.5 (Play of the Day)

Utah State Aggies +16.5

SMU Mustangs +12

Kent State Golden Flashes +5

Washington Huskies +10.5

[Mr. IWS]

vegas-runner | CFB Side Triple-Dime Bet
151 Kent St. 7.0 (-110) Bodog vs 152 Miami (Ohio)
Analysis:

*** NCAAFB 3* BEST BET ***



*** Guys, I am aware of the line-move on Thursday that made this now +5.5 at most shops...as I advised in today's thread...for those who didn't have access to getting down Wed Morning when I uploaded the play, or even last night when it was still 6.5 and better...I suggest you hold off until game-day because as explained in the thread...the threat of a "buy back" is definately there, and the public money on game-day should also drive this number back up at least to 6...barring any injury, suspension, or weather reasoning behind the "steam"...I will make sure to continue tracking the number and gathering what info I can, and also make sure that I pass along my suggestions...both here and in the forums...VR ***



This is also going to be my Pod-Cast Play for the Week...and I wanted to make sure that I first Upload it for my Subscribers, so that you are able to go out and get the best number possible, because I have been informed that this will most likely receive another "Buy Order" from the outfits, which may even force the books to take it down to 6.5...even though they definately expect the betting public to come in one-sided on Miami O on Saturday...

I went ahead and made this a 3* Best Bet because it definately warrents it, and since we are getting what should be the best number (barring any late developments due to injury), and can always come back and lay 1* the other way and possibly nail ourselves a middle...VR

[Mr. IWS]

King Creole | CFB Side
triple-dime bet115 Northwestern -7.5 (-110) Bodog vs 116 Indiana
Analysis: 12:00pm ET / #115 / Northwestern Wildcats @ Indiana Hoosiers
3*** BEST BET on: NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS

Looks like SU and ATS loss #6 in a row will be the outcome for the home Hoosiers after Saturday's game. Indiana comes in with a 0-5 SU and ATS record in their last 5 games. And their weakness (pass defense) plays right into the hands of Northwestern's strength (pass offense / 308 yards last week vs Purdue). Not only is Indiana losing a ton of games and allowing a lot of points, but their ATS margins are plain disgusting. Last two losses have been by ATS margins of -26 points and -30 points. Meanwhile, the Wildcats did a great job last week after they lost their first game of the year to Michigan State the week before. They rebounded off that tough loss with their best conference win of the year... beating Purdue by a score of 48-26 as favs of only -3.5 points.

Both teams qualify in fantastic Systems based on their last few games. For Northwestern it's a System which has gone an amazing 29-1 ATS.

During their current losing streak, the average score in Hoosier games is 40-15. No reason to think any different on Saturday at high noon. Particularly when we have such great ATS 'ammo' on our side.
35-11 ATS in the last 5 years for ALL College Football road favorites of -12 < points when playing off a SU conference home favorite win of 21 or more points. These teams have gone 12-2 ATS in the last 12 months. And if these road favorites are playing "INTO" Revenge (like Northwestern is), the results are an amazing 29-1-1 ATS in that same 5-year time span.

You do NOT want to playing on conference teams that are struggling big time. We can go back to the start of this season, or we can go back 5 years. Either way, it's 'Play AGAINST' time.
1-7 ATS so far THIS season: ALL conference home dogs who are of 3 straight SU and ATS losses in a row (Play against INDIANA, WISCONSIN, SAN DIEGO STATE, and MICHIGAN).

11-22 ATS in the last 4 years: Conference home dogs of < 10 points off BBB SU and ATS losses. Bring in a pitiful team that's actually off 4 or more SU and ATS losses in a row (like the Hoosiers and the Badgers), and the results are a PERFECT 0-6 ATS in the last 5 years.