Larry Ness | MLB Money Line
double-dime bet972 MIN (-140)BetUS vs 971 CWS
Analysis:
The Twins opened this three-game series with the White Sox on Tuesday 2 1/2 games behind the White Sox in the AL Central (three games in the loss column). The Twins knew that anything less than a three-game sweep would probably end their division hopes. I played Minnesota on Tuesday in its easy 9-3 win but backed off the Twins last night, as Blackburn had been quite shaky as of late and Chicago veteran Mark Buehrle owned an excellent history against the Twins. Buehrle pitched well for Chicago but so did Blackburn and the Twins used three solo HRS to get a 3-2 win. The Twins can now move into the Central Division lead with a win tonight. Gavin Floyd (16-8 3.84 ERA) gets the start for Chicago. No one could have predicted this kind of a season from him. He spent his first three seasons with the Phillies ('04-'06), going 7-5 with a 6.96 ERA in 19 starts. He joined the White Sox last year, making 16 appearances (10 starts), while going 1-5 with a 5.27 ERA (team was 3-7 in his starts). So where did this year's 16-win season come from? Floyd has been great vs the Twins this year, going 3-1 with a 1.86 ERA in four starts, holding the Twins to a .168 average. However, Floyd has not looked good in September, allowing four or more ERs in THREE of his four starts (27.2 IP / 31 hits / 16 ERs / 5.20 ERA). He's also had much more success at home in '08, than he has on the road. That's mirrors his team as a whole, as the White Sox are 51-26 at home but just 35-45 on the road. The White Sox are 13-3 in Floyd's home starts this year, where he's allowed just 81 hits in 105.2 innings with a 3.66 ERA. That compares to Chicago's 8-7 mark in his road starts, where he's allowed 93 hits in 89 innings with a 4.04 ERA. I'll also remind everyone that Minnesota hit three HRs last night and Floyd has given up a team-high 30 HRs in '08. The Twins will counter with Kevin Slowey (12-11, 3.85 ERA). Don't be fooled by that record, Slowey been an excellent pitcher for Minnesota (especially at home), since mid June. After his first start of '08, Slowey was placed on the 15-day DL with a right biceps strain and didn't make it back to the majors until May 8, when he was recalled from the minors after a brief rehab assignment. Since June 13, Slowey is 10-5 in his 18 starts, with the Twins going 12-6. He's made eight home starts during that stretch, going 7-1 with a 2.25 ERA. The Twins are, like the White Sox, 51-26 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 5.39 RPG-to-3.72. If the Twins win here, they'll be a half-game up on the White Sox and they'll finish the season with three home games against the Royals. The White Sox end the season with three games in Chicago vs the Indians (Lee is scheduled to pitch on Sunday) and if necessary, a make-up game on Monday with the Tigers. It's pretty simple. Win tonight and Minnesota is the slight favorite to take the division and most importantly, will control its own destiny. Lose and the Twins would need help (lots of it). I'm betting the Twins rise to the challenge. Las Vegas Insider on the Min Twins