Home-Field Advantage Is Overvalued


Playing at home provides obvious advantages. Home teams don’t have to worry about traveling and playing in hostile environments. They enjoy the comforts of a familiar stadium with the crowd cheering them on.

Home-field advantage is real, and oddsmakers typically award three points on average to home teams. However, this doesn’t change the fact that home-field advantage is overvalued.

Because recreational bettors love betting home teams, oddsmakers will shade lines toward them, causing public home bettors to take overpriced, bad numbers.

Data Proves Bettors Overvalue Home-Field Advantage in College Football
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Since 2005, home teams have won 58.9% of their games. However, covering the spread is a different story.

Using Bet Labs software, we found that home teams have gone 4630-4865 (48.8%) against the spread (ATS) since 2005, losing -482.26 units with a -5% return on investment (ROI).

The combination of a losing record and paying the juice means a $100 bettor taking every home team would be down $48,226.