I still question this reliance on props.
In my opinion straight bets should still--and should probably always--be the cornerstone of any betting system.
I heart cock
Yeah they will be but these are a helpful new tool.
Not Maynard, Story, Rampage, Nelson, and Stann by sub is like -400. Thinking about adding Pac man to this if I go through with it. Stann by sub kinda worries me but I don't think Santiago will gas like Massenzio did. And I don't see Nelson subbing Mir.. I actually think that fight may go to decision
Yeah I am pretty sure they move with the line. If the favorite becomes more of a favorite, the props move too... I think it is actually fairly complicated, but to answer your question: yes, they fluctuate a lot in both directions. Sometimes a submission prop will fall like 1000 points though, from -2300 to -3500, whereas the line might have only moved 30 points. But sometimes they get better by a lot too.
2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5u
I would trade Maynard out for Edgar... that is what I had last time (Not Edgar by sub) and he scared me once with a guillotine, but the line difference is worth the risk IMO. Not Edgar by sub is -1750, not Maynard is -5400.
Also not sure not Not Ramage by sub is -2000 and Not Hammill is -6800. I guess Hammill could tap to strikes...
2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5u
You can get "not edgar/rampage/nelson/stann by sub" for -416
If you add Story in it comes down to -338
I went ahead and pulled the trigger on the edgar/rampage/nelson/stann for a couple units just in case...
2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5u
Nelson is not going to submit Mir. Mir might submit Nelson though. Edgar did scare me last time with a standing guillotine, but I think it is worth the line difference. Rampage hasn't even attempted a submission in 10 years. I don't think he could submit Hammill anyway. We've talked about Stann... but I think Stann is going to want to force a standup fight and I really don't think he can sub Santiago anyway. He only got Massenzio because Massenzio was half dead from fatigue.
2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5u
I agree.
I just don't want to get used to that shit when there's apparently only one book on earth that has the range of props to make it a viable strategy, and that one book is notoriously picky not only about who they're going to take money from but also how they're going to take it.
I heart cock
Consider yourself flamed. But seriously I guess he good guillotine him. It is funny though I was thinking about that today and I came to the conclusion that he wouldn't try a lot because that usually means giving up the takedown. The fight prob goes the diff sonot giving any tds is very crucial. Examples: kamp shields and dunha, sherk
Not Mosley by 12 rd decision/Not Maynard by sub/Not Rampage by sub/Not Nelson by sub/Not Stann by sub/Not Story by sub, 4u to win 1.1u
Alves has been subbed several times before, but he defintely looks better on the ground now. I doubt Story subs him, but I could definitely see it happening, he likes that arm triangle... if he can wear Alves out, I could see it. But seriously, it won't happen.
2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5u
I am now working with a 5u bankroll, + have .9u on stann and 3.22u on reem
Jorge Santiago is no joke, at least on paper that is. Reem? You mean Allistair over Werdum?