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Saturday NCAAF Betting Info
In SEC games, home team vs. top 10 opponent ... 55.2% ATS
Vols +7.5 vs. #7 UGA
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Top 10 team at home after failing to cover previous week ... 44.6% ATS
Hoosiers +18.5 at Penn State
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Last 5 years, team getting +50% of bets in matchup of top 25 conference teams ... 40.3% ATS
+50% of bets on Clemson
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Ole Miss +28 at Bama
SEC teams on the road as dogs of 14 or more points vs. Tide ... 0-23 SU / 9-14 ATS
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Ranked Teams are Good Bets after a Bye Week
For starters, teams off a bye have gone 834-802 (51%) ATS since 2005. Don’t rush out to bet every team with extra days between games. However, if we focus on just ranked teams after a bye we see a significant improvement.
Ranked teams after a bye have covered the spread 54.2% of the time since 2005. Top 25 teams are the best programs in the country with superior athletes, facilities and coaching staffs. These are teams capable of putting the extra time to recover and game plan to good use.
Bettors can further capitalize on ranked teams after a bye if their next game is at home.
Ranked teams at home following a bye have cover the spread 59.7% of the time.
This is a simple system with a decent sample size and consistent winning results. On Saturday, No. 10 Wisconsin hosts Northwestern at Camp Randall Stadium. The Badgers are 14.5-point favorites over the West Division foe Wildcats. Bets are evenly split but smart money should back the home favorite.
If you are hesitant about placing this bet because Northwestern is also off a bye, ranked home teams off a bye facing an opponent off a bye: 19-11 (63.3%) ATS, +6.92 units since 2005.
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Lines Moving Against Each 4-0 ATS Team
As we approach Week 5 of the 2017 College Football season, just four teams are a perfect 4-0 ATS: Duke, New Mexico State, SMU, and Utah. The Utes are off this weekend so we’ll focus on the other three teams who have covered each of their four games this year, and we’ve actually seen line movement against all of them. Teams that start 4-0 ATS on the season have gone just 29-33 ATS in their 5th game (dating back to 2005), so these teams could be decent fade material. We know that there are other teams who are 3-0 ATS this season and you can check out all the latest betting on those games at our Free Live Odds page.
Miami-FL at Duke: Despite starting 4-0 ATS and getting nearly 60% of spread bets, line movement has been against Duke, opening +4.5 at CRIS and moving to +6.5. The line has even moved to +7 during the week, which could partly be due to the availability of key players for the Hurricanes.
Public bettors have been confident in betting Duke, but sharper bettors appear to be on Miami-FL to cover on Friday night.
UConn at SMU: This line opened all over the place: 5dimes listed SMU -21.5, Pinnacle had SMU -18.5, and CRIS started with SMU -17.5. After early line movement on SMU at all three books, they’re now down to -17 at CRIS and -17.5 around the rest of the market. SMU is getting 76% of tickets but just 60% of the money, so clearly some sharp buyback on UConn. The Huskies are on their own ATS streak, failing to cover in three straight, a spot that dogs cover in more than 60% of the time.
New Mexico State at Arkansas: New Mexico State is the only perfect ATS team to be getting <50% of bets this week, currently at 47% at the time of publication. The Aggies opened +15 at Pinnacle and have moved to +17, but betting at CRIS has been a little different– they opened +18.5 there and were bet down to +15 before moving back up to +17. Remember, sharp bettors are keen on the value of numbers, so smart money can be on both sides of a game. The market appears to be at a number they’re comfortable at now, settling at +17 for the last 24+ hours.
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CHARLOTTE (0-4) at FLA INTERNATIONAL (2-1) - 7:00 PM
CHARLOTTE is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 2-14 ATS (-13.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
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RICE (1-3) at PITTSBURGH (1-3) - 12:00 PM
PITTSBURGH is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
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S FLORIDA (4-0) at E CAROLINA (0-3) - 12:00 PM
S FLORIDA is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
E CAROLINA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
E CAROLINA is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
E CAROLINA is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
E CAROLINA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
E CAROLINA is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
S FLORIDA is 2-0 against the spread versus E CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
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E MICHIGAN (2-1) at KENTUCKY (3-1) - 4:00 PM
E MICHIGAN is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
E MICHIGAN is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
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HOUSTON (2-1) at TEMPLE (2-2) - 12:00 PM
TEMPLE is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TEMPLE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
TEMPLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
TEMPLE is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.
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BAYLOR (0-4) at KANSAS ST (2-1) - 3:30 PM
BAYLOR is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS ST is 2-0 against the spread versus BAYLOR over the last 3 seasons
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INDIANA (2-1) at PENN ST (4-0) - 3:30 PM
PENN ST is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
PENN ST is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
PENN ST is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons.
PENN ST is 2-0 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
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CONNECTICUT (1-1) at SMU (3-1) - 4:00 PM
CONNECTICUT is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in September games over the last 2 seasons.
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CALIFORNIA (3-1) at OREGON (3-1) - 10:30 PM
OREGON is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
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COASTAL CAROLINA (1-2) at LA MONROE (1-2) - 7:00 PM
LA MONROE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.
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S CAROLINA (3-1) at TEXAS A&M (3-1) - 7:30 PM
TEXAS A&M is 2-14 ATS (-13.4 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
TEXAS A&M is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
S CAROLINA is 2-0 against the spread versus TEXAS A&M over the last 3 seasons
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UTEP (0-4) at ARMY (2-2) - 3:30 PM
UTEP is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.
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MIAMI OHIO (2-2) at NOTRE DAME (3-1) - 5:00 PM
MIAMI OHIO is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
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MIDDLE TENN ST (2-2) at FLA ATLANTIC (1-3) - 7:00 PM
FLA ATLANTIC is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
FLA ATLANTIC is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
FLA ATLANTIC is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
FLA ATLANTIC is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
MIDDLE TENN ST is 2-0 against the spread versus FLA ATLANTIC over the last 3 seasons
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