Originally Posted by
dawggy
Dr. Chuck
BASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (979) Philadelphia Phillies at (980) Cleveland Indians
Date/Time: Sep 21 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 10.5 (-105)
View Analysis
Vargas v. Plesac
Indians are right at the top of the leaderboards in all metrics against LHP at home in September...and draw a walk rate equal to the K rate, which is excellent playing an NL team and having runners on base constantly. In addition the Indians need every win like blood and do not want to let any games slip to an NL team that has underachieved massively. Each team will be able to use a DH, which for the Phillies adds an extra non-pitcher bat to a total that isn't all that higher than normal...likely a Jay Bruce or similar who may be boom or bust but helps with an Over play with one swing.
Vargas coming from the left side should allow his share of runs and Zach Plesac has almost become president of my xFIP fade club plays haha. He still sports a middle-3 ERA and 5.10 xFIP, which over the last 3 starts has actually gone up toward 5.30...he walks too many batters and the Phillies should send their fair share of big lefty bats at the young kid due for a regression more than most any starter still going.
Among other factors, we shall finish with the home plate umpire being the Under fade machine. He has umpired 30 contests and only 7 of those 30 games have gone under the total. Neither of his interleague games went Under the total...and this is up from a very quick opening at 9.5.....at that 9.5 this would have been AT LEAST A 5% PLAY. So do what you will...but the double DH, the pitching matchup that is very hitter friendly and a wind that is blowing slightly out at about a 7mph clip.