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Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 5/19/24
May 19, 2024
Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita “What You Need to Know
Sunday, May 19, 2024
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
View Jeff Siegel’s Prime Plays Video
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 7-Amner Hall; 1-Neon Lights (Ire); 5-Kid Azteca.
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Anmer Hall is back sprinting where he’s most comfortable and appears well-spotted to regain his winning form in this starter allowance extended turf sprint. The Palace Malice gelding scored nicely over this course and distance three runs back and has never been worse than second in three outings since being claimed by S. Knapp and protected in non-claimers ever since. Neon Lights (Ire) draws the rail, adds blinkers, and seems certain to have a strong pace presence after failing to get the best of runs when a close third as the favorite in a similar affair last month. If he can shake loose early, he may never look back. Kid Azteca is the most dangerous of the closers, and over a course that has been kind to the late runners in sprints the P. Miller-trained gelding should be heard from close home.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:32 PT Grade: A-
Main Ticket: 5-Lyell’s Song
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Lyell’s Song has done some very good work in the morning for trainer Mark Glatt, who excels with the first-time starter angle, and this son of Cairo Prince looks fit and ready for a major effort first crack out of the box. Drawn comfortably outside in a below par race for the level, this promising sophomore colt should have enough early speed to be or near the lead throughout and then go on from there. Listed at 5/2 on the morning line, he’s a win play and rolling exotic single at or near that price.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:03 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 1-Dont Fight the Fed
Backups/savers: 3-Red Cross Knight; 2-McGregor Lake
Forecast: Don’t Fight the Fed was a mile the best when dismantling a first level allowance state bred field on dirt last month and in his first try on grass the son of Nyquist should come right back and score again, assuming he transfers his main track form to the sod. In his last race – career top effort - the A. Garcia-trained colt was bottled up in traffic for most of the way but once clear entering the stretch he accelerated with purpose to win without being asked for best and with a ton left in the tank. He’s out of a Scat Daddy mare, so we’ll proceed with the conviction that the switch in surface won’t bother in in the least, so at 3-1 on the morning line, he’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:35 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 2-Bright Leaf; 5-Departure
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Bright Leaf rates top billing in this modest $25,000 claimer over a mile on dirt in his first start since January. The J. Sadler-trained horse is back in selling company after a pair of tries facing optional claiming foes, and the last time he ran for a tag (last October) the son of Dialed In won for fun over this track and distance. He’s been sparingly raced the past couple of years and may have some issues, but the recent work tab is healthy and steady, so we’ll assume he’s ready for a top effort. Departure was a voided claim for this price when winning in clever fashion in mid-March, so there is a bit of a condition question surrounding the S. Knapp-trained gelding. He’s most effective on the lead, so if he can make the running without pressure he’ll be capable of taking this field a long way.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:07 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 2-King of Gosford (GB)
Backups/savers: 3-Sorrento Sky (Ire).
Forecast: King of Gosford (GB) is perfect in two grass sprints since arriving from Ireland, an allowance win over the flat track and then a sharp victory in the John Shear Memorial S. down this tricky downhill hillside course last month. The P. D’Amato-trained sophomore has maintained his edge in the interim with a series of strong drills, so there should be no reason he can’t extend his streak to three. At 9/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower, the English-bred colt is a logical win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:39 PT Grade: C
Main Ticket: 6-Bella Renella; 4-Awesome Taylor.
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: This is a treacherous $16,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares with nothing to trust. Bella Renella has been away for almost three months and according to her workout pattern has missed quite a bit of time, but she’s a five time winner over the Santa Anita main track and has several speed figures in her chart that are better than par for the level, so if she healthy she can win. However, her low profile connections don’t inspire confidence and at 2-1 she won’t be offering much value. Awesome Taylor, herself absent for two months, looks on paper to be the one to fear most. She has some back form that makes her a threat but she’s winless in six starts over this dirt track and the barn has only won one race this year. Maybe the best advice is to tread lightly or pass the raced altogether.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:11 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 5-Big Hat Willie; 2-Moody Jim (Ire).
Backups/savers: 1-Calm Seas.
Forecast: Big Hat Willie didn’t have much luck in a pair of dirt track outings at Oaklawn Park but once back home the son of First Samurai quickly regained his winning form with a sharp pace-pressing win in a starter allowance $50,000 affair over a mile on grass last month. In fact, all three of his turf starts have been outstanding and with a nice half mile breeze at San Luis Rey Downs last week to tick him over the P. Miller-trained gelding should be primed for another major effort. He’s never been 10 furlongs, but today’s distance isn’t likely to be a problem for him. Moody Jim (Ire) is a three time winner over the Arcadia sod and though up in class today the Irish-bred gelding is in prime form and is another who should have no difficulty with this mile and one-quarter journey. Look for him to be doing his best work from the quarter pole home.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:43 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: 6-Clooney
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: When last seen last summer at Del Mar, Clooney was winning a $16,000 middle distance main track claimer with authority and was promptly claimed by trainer S. Knapp. However, he came out of the race worse for wear and had to be turned out, but he returns today in this $20,000 main track miler for a barn with solid layoff stats while being waiver protected in a sign of confidence. Never off the board in three outings at Santa Anita and with a series of sharp, breezing drills to have him fit and ready, the son of City of Light retains “win rider” T. Pereira and may be capable of picking up where he left off. Let’s take the bait and use him in the win pool and as a rolling exotic single and hope to get close to his morning line of 7/2.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:15 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: 5-Dealers Special
Backups/savers: 2-Legitimate Target (GB); 4-Baldoro.
Forecast: Dealers Special, off the track since last October and making a positive trainer switch to R. Baltas, is a first time Lasix user for a barn that boasts superior stats with layoff runners and also makes the always dangerous maiden to maiden claiming class drop. The stable’s “go-to” rider U. Rispoli takes the call and we’re expecting this son of Upstart to be rolling from the quarter pole home. In a moderate field for the level and at an enticing 5-1 on the morning line, he’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis
May 19, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia
Northfield Park begins the week with a 15-race card. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a low 14% takeout, and it will be my focus.
Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 11 (9:40 PM EST)
1-Grantmeawish (7/2)-Landing on the rail could very well make a winning difference in the 2nd start since shipping in from MVR. Aaron Merriman has the gate speed to use to protect his post and should be a main player.
4-Mull Of Kintyre (5/2)-Was used hard into a 26.2 opening quarter to land on the point, and the trip took its toll in last. Justin Irvine may be content working a pocket ride behind #1 and take his chances down the lane.
Race 12 (10:02 PM EST)
5-Southwind Amazon (7/2)-Got on the point last week against better but didn't hold on down the lane. Drops down 2 levels to face the same kind as its last win on 4-23. Irvine could get the top and not look back to post its 3rd win in 10 starts this year for the 14-year-old.
Race 13 (10:24 PM EST)
5-Elver Hanover (5/2)-The Burke trainee gets some needed class relief and should be a player if Ronnie Wrenn works a smooth trip. This veteran knows how to burn money but may have met a beatable field if ready for a top try.
7-American Fling (4-1)-This Meadows shipper lost as an odds-on choice in its last race on 5-4. The beaten 3/2 chalk was Merriman's choice and a couple of weeks off may help the cause. Could take a picture in its return to Nfld. Has the gate speed to land on the point and could be tough to tackle.
Race 14 (10:46 PM EST)
4-Club Scene (5/2)-Faces better but should be able to dance with this kind. Drew off by over 10 lengths on 5-14 and comes right back. Gets a positive driver change with Wrenn taking the lines and draws well. The Schillaci entry is in a spot to double up and with a smooth steer that looks like a strong possibility.
$4.00 Late Pick 4
1,4/5/5,7/4
Total Bet=$16
Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Hawthorne - Race #5
Hawthorne - Race #6
Picks Notes #4 Ha Ha Gloria Don’t think she’s going to be any kind of number in here, but she’s probably supposed to handle this group if she’s able to bring something similar to the $50,000 Santa Anita try last fall. #10 Suprise Me Again She has a little appeal on paper at this sprint trip at first asking, as I’m not sure she’s meeting a whole lot outside of the top choice. Take a look at her on the track. #7 Di’s Surprise She gave way after showing pace in the debut here on the main in March, but the barn is always dangerous with turf sprinters and might have this one ready for better. Race Summary Ha Ha Gloria has the pace to mix things up early, and she’s bringing a solid running line to this local debut off the bench.
Picks Notes #2 Purr Sea The chalk is supposed to be tough in here, but I wonder if this one has a chance to maybe sneak away a little bit in a race without a ton of serious sprint pace. #5 Oeuvre She has historically been very tough with the locals and has some obvious room to bounce back off the flat run with Grade III company last out. She’s quick enough to press the top choice anyway, but I’ll take a shot against. #7 White Lies She has some room to come forward off the modest comeback run, and she landed third in this race last year in a similar second-back situation last season. Race Summary Purr Sea and Oeuvre look like the right two, but I think Purr Sea might have a chance to get away with this one with an aggressive ride.
Frank Carulli's Daily Picks
Hawthorne - Race #7
Picks Notes #2 Protonic Power He has been in a few decent spots over the last year, and he was only beaten a couple lengths by the late Grade I-winner Two Emmys in December – anything like that would do the trick here. #7 Another Mystery He’s got the huge class edge off the bench after the form went sour last year in a string of graded stakes tries, but he can be competitive with this group even at a trip shorter than his very best. #1 Readthecliffnotes He has some honest form and was just second-best last out, but I have mild worry around the fact that turf has never been his best game. Worth another look on the footing at this point in his career? Race Summary RProtonic Power and Another Mystery are the recent class in here, but the former might get the jump at a slightly better price? Interested to see how the betting plays out between the two of them.
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Prairie Meadows
PURCHASE
Prairie Meadows - Race 3 Claiming $5,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 68 • Purse: $12,500 • Post: 4:54P FOR THREE YEAR OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY). IOWA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Lone Trailer. SINGING GROOM is the Lone Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * LIBERTY'S HAULER: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start af ter a layoff. BORDINOS: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. SINGING GROOM: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Po wer Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. WICKED PRINCE: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Clas s Rating at the distance/surface. LIBERTY'S HAULER BORDINOS SINGING GROOM WICKED PRINCE
Line
Class
Speed
FigureWICKED PRINCE Front-runner BORDINOS Alternator/Front-runner KINFOLK Alternator/Stalker LIBERTY'S HAULER Alternator/Stalker SINGING GROOM Trailer CONSTITUTION DAY Alternator/Non-contender
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for LethbridgePURCHASE
Lethbridge - Race 6 Allowance • 3 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 73 • Purse: $7,500 • Post: 3:20P QUARTER HORSE 3F, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.
Horse
Line
Odds
Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. CONTRABAND (T) is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * CONTRABAND (T): Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and trainer's win percentage with horses coming off a layoff is at least 25. Horse's w in percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. MINDSHARE (T): Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points low er than the Class Rating of its last race. Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. CONTRABAND (T) MINDSHARE (T)
Line
Class
Speed
FigureCONTRABAND (T) Front-runner SHES JUST RIPPIN Front-runner LINCHPIN STORM (T) Alternator/Front-runner BANDSLAMMER (T) Alternator/Front-runner MINDSHARE (T) Alternator/Front-runner TRUST ELLA Alternator/Stalker STALWART BOY (T) Alternator/Non-contender
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 8 - Claiming - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $6500 Class Rating: 72
FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 121 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 30 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE JULY 15 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE JUNE 15 ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES 
# 3 PRESSLY'S HOPE 7/2
# 2 GIANNA'S GIFT 3/1
# 6 SPICE KINGDOM 2/1
I think PRESSLY'S HOPE is a solid choice. Could provide positive returns based on strong recent Equibase Speed Figures with an average of 71. Had one of the most favorable Equibase Speed Figures of this group in her last competition. Has been running in the most competitive company of the group recently. GIANNA'S GIFT - Lately Diaz has been on fire which may give the edge to this mare. Must be given a shot given the class of races run recently. SPICE KINGDOM - Ought to go to the lead and could never look back. With a very good 54 Equibase Speed Figure last time out, will definitely be a factor in this contest.
Churchill Downs - Race #7 - Post: 3:50pm - Maiden Special - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $120,000 Class Rating: 89
Rating:
#8 ASK ARTHUR (ML=12/1)
#4 REYNOLDS CHANNEL (ML=6/5)
#10 YELL COUNTY (ML=4/1)
#5 GLENBROOK GERRY (ML=12/1)
ASK ARTHUR - Cedillo and Wismer partnered together are a horse gambler's friend. Entered last at Keeneland in a race with a class rating of 95. Dropping a significant amount in class figure in today's event puts him in a solid position today. REYNOLDS CHANNEL - This colt finished well ahead of the third horse on Apr 18th. Those horses tend to run well next time out. You have to really like that most recent race figure, 92, which is the highest last race speed figure of this field. Have to make this colt a win candidate; he comes off a solid race on April 18th. This colt was sharp enough to post a 'top two' workout recently. I think he's ready for today's event. This colt is clearly on the improve with speed ratings of 67, 81, 92 last three out. Colt will add blinkers to the equipment package today. That often leads to an improved performance. Earnings per race is something that I believe can be a most important handicapping factor. This mount is ranked number one in this group. YELL COUNTY - Last ran at Oaklawn Park and finished fourth. Reviewing his PP lines, I see he was close at the finish line, within 5 of the winner. GLENBROOK GERRY - A thoroughbred coming back this rapidly after a strong contest is a good sign. The improved speed ratings over the last 3 races is strong. Danner drops him in this event in shape and ready to win.
Vulnerable Contenders: #7 HOUSE UNITED (ML=5/1), #3 CARNITINE (ML=5/1),
HOUSE UNITED - 5/1 is too short of a value to take on most any horse that has run poorly in back to back efforts. When scrutinizing today's class figure, he will have to register a better rating than last time around the track to vie in this dirt route. CARNITINE - If this contest shapes up right, all the speedballs will force a ferocious pace duel early. Too bad this horse is one of those front runners. Will not be easy for this animal to beat this group off of that last fig. Doubtful to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's Equibase class figure, so put him on the likely underpriced equines list.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Put your money on #8 ASK ARTHUR on the nose if you can get odds of 9/2 or more EXACTA WAGERS: Box [8,10] Box [5,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:Pass SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Pass
SUPER HI-5 WAGERS:[4,8] with [4,5,8,10] with [4,5,8,10] with [4,5,6,8,9,10] with [4,5,6,8,9,10] Total Cost: $72
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Belmont at the Big A
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 5 - Maiden Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $45000 Class Rating: 61
OUTER TURF FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $40,000
RECOMMENDED CHOICES # 1 LEARNING TO FLY 6/1
# 15 FIT AS A FIDDLE 8/1
# 5 MY CARA MIA MINE 8/1
LEARNING TO FLY has a competitive shot to take this race. She should have a strong performance versus this easier bunch. Reliable average Equibase Speed Figures in dirt sprint races make this equine a solid choice. This filly with Castellano in the saddle makes her a definite contender. FIT AS A FIDDLE - With one of the top jockeys in terms of profits at the window, don't count this filly out. This animal has some longshot angles going for her. MY CARA MIA MINE - Recorded a strong Equibase Speed Fig in the latest race. Can run another good one in this race. Her chances to prove victorious are much better today facing this easier field of horses.
Century Mile - Race #3 - Post: 4:45pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,500 Class Rating: 79
Rating:
#5 FROSTEDBIRD (ML=5/1)
#3 MACHINE (ML=2/1)
#6 ABOVE AND BEYOND (ML=7/2)
FROSTEDBIRD - If this gelding gets out of the gate cleanly, he'll be tough to catch. I think that this contest's shorter distance should help this gelding. MACHINE - Gourdeau drops him down to this level. You don't need too much more handicapping knowledge to think this horse has a darn good chance at this level. ABOVE AND BEYOND - This jockey/conditioner duo has been producing a high winning pct, right around 34. This gelding's last speed fig registered on Sep 1st is tops in last race speed ratings.
Vulnerable Contenders: #2 WRONG SPOT (ML=5/2), #1 MUSTAFA (ML=8/1),
WRONG SPOT - Where is the speed? None to be found in here to set things up for this thoroughbred. Quite unimpressive rating in the last race at Century Mile at 5 furlongs. Don't believe this horse will improve too much in today's event. MUSTAFA - Tough to bet on any horse in a sprint event if he hasn't finished in the money in a sprint in the last couple months.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: Bet on #5 FROSTEDBIRD to win if we can get at least 7/2 odds EXACTA WAGERS: None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:Box [3,5,6] Total Cost: $6 SUPERFECTA WAGERS: None
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