How crazy is the current hot streak for favorites in the UFC?

[SPX]

I for damn sure don't.

[Svino]

I'm going to assume I'm not alone when I say that I have no fucking idea what that graph is trying to tell Me.

Sorry. For example, the height of the line at (say) 80, would give you an estimate of expected return for bets on fighters around -400 (since that corresponds to implied odds of 80%). Places where the line is above zero indicate lines or line ranges where blind-betting on all fighters in that range from 2009 to the present would have been profitable.

[Ludo]

Sorry. For example, the height of the line at (say) 80, would give you an estimate of expected return for bets on fighters around -400 (since that corresponds to implied odds of 80%). Places where the line is above zero indicate lines or line ranges where blind-betting on all fighters in that range from 2009 to the present would have been profitable.

Thanks, I think I have it now.

[SPX]

My theory is that Minowa is the worst fighter in the world, and that all of his wins are works. All evidence points to the super hulk tournament being totally fixed.

What evidence exactly are you referring to? The evidence of Minowa winning?

[Ludo]

What evidence exactly are you referring to? The evidence of Minowa winning?

Plenty of fighters have come out and said they were offered money to take dives against Minowa in the past. He's like the Goldberg of Japan.

[SPX]

Plenty of fighters have come out and said they were offered money to take dives against Minowa in the past. He's like the Goldberg of Japan.

I don't really follow his career so I haven't heard that. But it's interesting.

[Mr. IWS]

So much butthurt..............

Bulz

[Mr. IWS]

BJ Penn (-1100) vs. Frankie Edgar
Here, the fact that Edgar's "hummingbird style" was perfect for the type of outside striking match this fight was likely to be should have kept people away. Even so, it took a bad decision.

Rolles Gracie (-1010) vs. Joey Beltran
UFC newcomers = too much uncertainty.

Melvin Guillard (-615) vs. Joe Lauzon
Guillard rightly deserved to be a big favorite, but I guess if a fighter is undisciplined, there's a limit to how steep you should bet.

Srs nigga, you cut me deep with this shit.

We are not friends anymore.

[Svino]

2012 so far
All favorites: +0.140
All dogs: -0.199

... that was two events ago. And after two events in which 15 of 23 underdogs hit, we have the much more reasonable-looking:

2012 so far
All favorites: +0.004
All dogs: -0.053

So I guess things sorted themselves out pretty quick after all that.

[MMA_scientist]

Yeah, I had a feeling this was going to balance out eventually. It is pretty crazy how it works out almost perfectly though.