Quote Originally Posted by SPX View Post
That is, make sure the line is justified and is not based on hype or that some legitimate way to win on the underdog's part is not being overlooked. So basically, does the fave really, truly have almost no way to win the fight?
One rule I try to follow is to imagine that the favorite is just a little worse in all areas than you think he is, and the underdog is just a little better. If that would give the underdog a decent chance, stay away from steep lines.

For fun: here are all the -500 or steeper losers from 2009 to present:

BJ Penn (-1100) vs. Frankie Edgar
Here, the fact that Edgar's "hummingbird style" was perfect for the type of outside striking match this fight was likely to be should have kept people away. Even so, it took a bad decision.

Rolles Gracie (-1010) vs. Joey Beltran
UFC newcomers = too much uncertainty.

Ryan Bader (-625) vs. Tito Ortiz
I'm not 100% convinced this line was bad. Maybe Bader just got caught?

Tom Lawlor (-620) vs. Joe Doerksen
The definition of a "grappler's chance".

Melvin Guillard (-615) vs. Joe Lauzon
Guillard rightly deserved to be a big favorite, but I guess if a fighter is undisciplined, there's a limit to how steep you should bet.

Erick Silva (-600) vs. Carlo Prater
Freak DQ, probably a good line, given the beating Silva put on him.

Josh Koscheck (-575) vs. Paulo Thiago
Good old K1 Kos. Wrestler who is too willing to stand vs. a guy with good power. Didn't scare me away from taking Kos at pretty heavy odds against Daley, though.

John Hathaway (-525) vs. Mike Pyle
This is the only one I actually bet (on Pyle).

Rick Story (-525) vs. Charlie Brenneman
This is a case where the rule I stated above would apply. People assumed Story would either outwrestle Brenneman, or their wrestling would cancel.

Brock Larson (-500) vs. Brian Foster
Brock Larson (-500) vs. Mike Pierce
Larson was -500 for three fights in 2009 and he had the good fortune to win one of them. But he didn't just lose both of these fights, he got dominated. LOL Larson.