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GOLD SHEET
AFC & NFC CHAMPIONSHIP ANALYSIS
SAN FRANCISCO (12-4-1) at ATLANTA (14-3)
San Francisco 33 - ATLANTA 24—We admit a slight surprise at the opening
line of 49ers -3½ in the NFL title game (although the number had dropped to a
more-solid 3 by later Sunday evening). Spread value or not, any price in range
of a field goal shouldn’t cause abandoning a recommendation for a team you
think is going to win the game.
Which for us in this case is San Francisco.
Do not count us among the pundits who wondered why 49er HC Jim
Harbaugh opted for the “nuclear” option in mid-November by switching QBs
from Alex Smith to 2nd-year Colin Kaepernick. By us, Harbaugh had the right
idea. Many sources reported that while Harbaugh has admiration for Smith, he
was also convinced that Kaepernick’s unique gifts gave San Francisco a better
chance to win the Super Bowl. Harbaugh also figured that if he were to make the
switch, he had to pull the trigger when he did in November; while Kaepernick’s
lack of game experience provided downside risk, his mobility and electric arm
always hinted at a ceiling far above that of Alex Smith.
But what even Harbaugh might not have expected was for NFL
defenses to turn into versions of those in the old WAC that Kaepernick
used to dominate when running the “Pistol” offense for HC Chris Ault at
Nevada. Indeed, Green Bay’s accomplished stop unit looked a lot like Idaho’s
or New Mexico State’s when Kaepernick gained an NFL QB playoff record 181
yards rushing (including TD runs of 20 and 56 yards) in last Saturday’s 45-31
romp. Moreover, Kaepernick displayed a steely resolve when bouncing back
from an early pick-six (courtesy Packer DB Sam Shields) to lead a 579-yard
offensive explosion. The big-play fireworks provided by Kaepernick provide a
much-different dimension to the Niners than at this time a year ago, when Smith
was stewarding a mostly low-risk offense that focused upon Frank Gore’s
running threat and field position provided by a suffocating defense. Those latter
elements remain basically unchanged this season, but Kaepernick’s presence
(and a burgeoning rapport with WR Michael Crabtree, who was a non-factor in
LY’s NFC title game vs. the Giants but caught 9 passes for 119 yards vs. Green
Bay) adds lots more octane to the strike force that also is beginning to drip Oregon
rookie lightning bolt LaMichael James a bit more into the mix in recent weeks.
Although Atlanta finally ended its recent playoff bugaboo last week vs.
Seattle to win in the postseason for the first time after three previous failures in
the HC Mike Smith/QB Matt Ryan era that began in 2008, it only did so after
blowing the entirety of a 20-point 4th-Q lead, and needed some last-second
heroics by Ryan and PK Matt Bryant to steal a 30-28 verdict. While establishing
an often-ineffective infantry when gaining 167 YR vs. the Seahawks, the
Falcons might have more problems doing the same vs. a 49er rush “D” that
allowed only 94 ypg and 3.7 ypc in the regular season. True, big Atlanta
receiving targets WRs Roddy White & Julio Jones and TE Tony Gonzalez
always do their share of business. But keep in mind that the Aldon Smith-led
49er LB crew features a complete cast of first or second-team NFL All-Pros.
And San Francisco has plenty of DBs to cover Ryan’s preferred weapons;
converting yards into points might be tougher vs. the 49ers than vs. Seattle.
In conclusion, Kaepernick, already having outscored Tom Brady (on the
road) and Aaron Rodgers in the last month, doesn’t figure to get spooked by this
assignment. Not with his established supporting cast and arguably the mostathletic
OL in the game against an Atlanta defensive front that was spotty vs.
the run all year (4.8 ypc) and generated little pass rush besides DE John
Abraham (10 sacks; only 18 for the rest of the team). With no hint of Mr. Hyde
in Kaepernick’s makeup, we expect the 49ers to outscore another highly-rated
foe and get Jim Harbaugh to the Super Bowl after last year’s near miss.
(10-ATLANTA -7 16-14...SR: San Francisco 44-30-1)
BALTIMORE (12-6) at NEW ENGLAND (13-4)
NEW ENGLAND 25 - Baltimore 23—If we knew that New England DBs
were going to defend the Ravens like the Denver Broncos did, this would be an
easy pick. Still, there appears to be plenty of evidence that Baltimore is ready
to give Tom Brady and the Patriots all they can handle. And not just because
the team is on some special quest to get emotional leader Ray Lewis to the
Super Bowl one last time.
The Ravens have certainly shaken their late-season blahs, which saw them
lose 4 of their last 5 games. And Baltimore has certainly shown that it will not
be fazed by facing a Bill Belichick team, as these two foes have played each
other 6 times in the last 6 years (two of those meetings in the playoffs). Only
once was the game not close, and that was a 33-14 Wildcard round Raven win
in Foxborough in 2009. Four games were Patriot victories, but by 3 in 2007
(N.E.’s 16-0 regular season), by 6 in the 2009 regular season, by 3 in OT in
2010, and by 3 last year in the AFC Championship Game. This year's meeting
was a 31-30 Raven win in Baltimore.
Moreover, Baltimore is now a better-balanced, more-mature team this time
around, mostly because of QB Joe Flacco’s big arm and greater knowledge how
to use it. Flacco is the only QB to ever win a playoff game in each of his first five
seasons. He is now 7-4 in the playoffs overall, including 5-4 on the road. Yes,
Brady now has more playoff wins (17) than any QB in history. But, sinace his
remarkable 9-0 playoff run and three Super bowl titles to start his career, Brady
is just 8-6 SU in the postseason. And, with star TE Rob Gronkowski out with a
re-fractured forearm and with valuable RB Danny Woodhead (thumb) also
injured last week, Brady’s quick-hitting attack is not operating on all cylinders.
Plus, let’s not forget last year’s 23-20 Pats’ title-game victory at Gillette
Stadium. It was a close shave indeed, as the Ravens’ then-PK Billy Cundiff
missed an unnecessarily hurried 32-yard chip-shot FG at the end that would
have tied the game at 23 and sent it to overtime! Baltimore out-gained Brady
& Co. 398 to 330 that day, with Tom Terrific throwing two ints. and Flacco one.
In the pits, Baltimore has “found something” with its recent OL adjustments,
as a slimmed-down and re-invigorated LT Bryant McKinnie has fought his way
back into the starting lineup, allowing the versatile Michael Oher to shift back to
his natural RT spot, bumping physical rookie prize Kelechi Osemele to G to pair
with all-pro Marshal Yanda. The Ravens’ 327 YR so far in the playoffs are no
accident, with both the RBs and Flacco helped greatly by the big uglies up front.
Yes, New England was focused on stopping the Houston run last week. But the
Pats recorded only one sack vs. immobile Texan QB Matt Schaub.
And has anyone noticed that Raven receiver Torrey Smith has become a
big-time, big-pay target, with the honored Champ Bailey his latest victim? That
has opened things up for possession WR Anquan Boldin and TEs Dennis Pitta
& Ed Dickson for valuable ball-control receptions. On defense, when OLB
Terrell Suggs and ILB Lewis were out with their injuries, OLB Paul Kruger (9
sacks in reg. season) & ILB Dannell Ellerbe (4½) blossomed. Now, all are ready
(although Lewis & Suggs might be a bit less than 100%).
Young RB Stevan Ridley (1263 YR in regular season) and the speedy Shane
Vereen (two TDC, 1 TDR last week) have enlivened the N.E. offense. But the
Ravens have also been lifted in recent weeks, and jet-powered KR/WR Jacoby
Jones could be a problem for the Patriot STs, which struggled in coverage last
week. No surprise if this latest Baltimore-New England duel is another nailbiter.
(12-BALT. 31-N. Eng. 30...N.33-28 B.26/121 N.34/77 B.28/39/1/382 N.28/41/0/319 B.0 N.0)
(11-N. ENG. 23-Balt. 20...N.25-19 B.31/116 N.31/96 B.22/36/1/282 N.22/36/2/234 N.1 B.0)
(12-BALTIMORE -2' 31-30; 11-N. ENGLAND -7 23-20 (Playoffs)...SR: New England 7-2)
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NFLBettingPicks / Kevin
2 UNIT = San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons - 49ERS -4 (-109)
(Note: I'm risking 2.18 units to win 2.00 units)
The San Francisco 49ers took care of business at home against Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers last Saturday to improve to 12-4-1 on the season, and 7-1 at home. They were 5-3 on the road this year, and head into Atlanta to take on the NFC's #1 seed in Atlanta. The Falcons barely got by Seattle at home last week with a field goal to win by 2 points. San Francisco is a lot like Seattle in that they have a great defense and a high powered offense led by a young QB in Colin Kaepernick who can also use his legs. Kaepernick threw for 263 yards, 2 TDs with 1 INT on Saturday, and added 181 yards on the ground and 2 rushing TDs. He had a QB Rating of 98.3 this season and had 415 yards rushing with 5 TDs even though he took over the starting QB job mid way through the season. The San Francisco 49ers weren't far behind Atlanta (who were 8th in the NFL on offense) at 11th with less than 2 ppg less than the Falcons. The 49ers defense was 3rd ranked in the league allowing just 294 yards against per game and 17.1 papg. The Falcons were 24th in the league overall, although they allowed just 18.7 papg. The 49ers offense should be able to get more done on the ground this week than the Seahawks did on Sunday vs the Falcons who ranked 29th in the league in yards against per carry. Take note that the 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs a team with a winning record, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs a team with a winning home record, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games on fieldturf, and 24-11-1 ATS in their last 36 games overall. The Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 playoff games and last week Matt Ryan barely squeaked out his first career playoff victory and he was lucky to do so. This 49ers teams is a little more experienced going to the Conference Championship game last year losing to the eventual Super Bowl champions in overtime, and I think they are the better team all around. I like San Francisco to advance to the Super Bowl and cover the spread in doing so.
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PLAYBOOK MARC LAWRENCE
NFL CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES
ATLANTA over San Francisco by 3
Although many will be hard-pressed to recall the Falcons’ last (and only)
trip to the Super Bowl, the fact is Atlanta made it to the Big Game
more recently than the 49ers, clinching the 1998 NFC title whereas
San Francisco’s last Super Bowl appearance concluded the 1994 season. And
though many NFL fans are intrigued by the possibility of a Civil War style
brother-against-brother Harbaugh showdown in February for the Lombardi
Trophy, we don’t think it’s gonna happen. Sure, Atlanta tried every way possible
to lose last week’s semifi nal matchup with Seattle, blowing a 20-point 4th
quarter lead to ruin our 4★ Late Phone play on the Dirty Birds. But to their
credit, they came back and won the game with a clutch drive in the fi nal 40
seconds to set up Matt Bryant’s 49-yard game winning FG. Meanwhile, San
Francisco’s Colin Kaepernick ran for a quarterback playoff record 181 yards and
two touchdowns (also added a pair of TD’s on passes to Michael Crabtree)
as the Niners won the Battle of the Bays, conquering the Packers, 45-31.
However, with Kaepernick leaving behind the comfy confi nes of Candlestick
Park for the raucous Georgia Dome, we don’t anticipate the well-inked QB to
repeat last week’s success. Our biggest cause for concern is Frisco coach Jim
Harbaugh’s eye-popping 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS NFL career mark versus .667 or
better opposition, including 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS this year. We can counter that
success with this little gem from our PLAYBOOK.com database (also applies
to New England): teams that score 40 or more points in a playoff win are an
incredibly bad 3-20 ATS in their next playoff game! And with Atlanta taking
points today, the database informs us that all NFL home dogs have gone 20-
13 SU and 22-11 ATS in the playoffs, including 8-2 SUATS if .750 or better –
and 8-4 SU and 9-3 ATS if they own the better win percentage. Overall, home
teams in title games off back-to-back home contests are a respectable 21-8
SU and 17-12 ATS. But when the host shows up as a dog or favorite of 3 or
fewer points, those numbers sweeten to 6-1 SUATS the last seven outings.
Falcons head coach Mike Smith is a moneymaker when playing off an ATS
defeat, going 24-6 SU and 23-7 ATS, and with the playoff monkey FINALLY off
his back, we look for the momentum from last Sunday’s miracle fi nish to carry
over today. Look out, New Orleans… here come the Dirty Birds!
AFC CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES
NEW ENGLAND over Baltimore by 3
If you think the veteran Ravens – who have played nine of their last 11
playoff games on the road – will be intimidated this Sunday night in
Foxboro, think again! Forget about Billy Cundiff’s missed 32-yard FG in
last year’s AFC championship game on this fi eld that would have sent the
game to overtime. Baltimore was a Lee Evans-dropped touchdown pass
(though some still feel it was catch) from a Super Bowl XXXV rematch with
the Giants. Ironically, the Ravens defeated the Patriots 31-30 in Week Three
of this season on rookie kicker Justin Tucker’s 27-yard FG as time expired as
they tallied 503 total yards – the most allowed by New England this year.
However, with home teams 21-8 SU in title tilts off back-to-back homers and
the Pats 4-0 SU in Foxboro in championship games, we’re hesitant to call for
the outright upset. However, we’re not worried about taking off the hoodie
in the cold weather as far as the ATS number is concerned. For starters, the
Ravens are 7-1 ATS on the postseason road versus non-division opposition
since 2000 and 10-4-1 ATS against fellow playoff teams the last two seasons
Baltimore QB Joe Flacco is also 7-2 ATS in the postseason versus teams that
reside outside of the AFC North while John Harbaugh, the Birds’ head coach,
has suffered only nine losses by double-digit margins in 92 total games! The
clincher, though, may come in the form of a Ravens’ 20-3 SU and 17-8 ATS
mark after allowing 24 or more points under Harbaugh. Or perhaps it’s the
fact the database reminds us that teams who score 40 or more points in
a postseason contest are a paltry 3-20 ATS in their next playoff affair since
1996. Of course, Baltimore’s unsteady defense (owned over 100 yards the
better stop-unit in this matchup last year, but holds just a slight edge this
season) is a concern. However, New England’s recent mark as playoff chalk
(2-7 ATS last nine) and Tom Brady’s wobbly 4-8 ATS log as a playoff favorite
of 3 or more points – along with the loss of Pro Bowl TE Rob Gronkowski –
has us singing with the Black Crows like we did in this spot last season. Once
again, it’s the Pats by the skin of Brady’s teeth… unless, of course, Ray Lewis
gets to them first! A must take.
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STATFOX
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
KEY Betting Trend:
Road teams where total is between 42.5 and 49 points, outgaining opponents by 1.25 or more yards/play, after gaining 400+ total yards in prior game. (31-9 Over)
Play = Over total
Series History – Last 5 seasons:
ATLANTA is 2-1 ATS, 3-0 SU overall vs. SAN FRANCISCO
ATLANTA is 1-1 ATS, 2-0 SU at home vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Statfox Power Trends:
ATLANTA is 3-19 ATS at home off a home win since 1992.
ATLANTA is 17-6 UNDER after a win over the L2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 9-2 UNDER when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
SAN FRAN is 22-12 ATS in all lined games over the L2 seasons.
SAN FRAN is 7-0 ATS when playing top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) over L2 seasons.
SAN FRAN is 10-1 ATS vs. defenses allowing 7+ pass yards/att. over the L3 seasons.
SAN FRAN is 15-4 ATS vs. defenses allowing >=5.65 yards/play over the L3 seasons.
The Falcons made another narrow escape at home last week. They’re 8-1 SU but 4-5 ATS at home, and they haven’t been a home underdog since October 2011. QB Matt Ryan is 34-6 SU career at the Georgia Dome, and the Falcons have won 12 of 13 SU at home, the lone loss in a meaningless Week 17 game. In two years under Jim Harbaugh, San Fran is 6-1 SU and ATS in the Eastern time zone. QB Colin Kaepernick went just 2-2 SU on the road as a starter during the 2012 regular season.
• Play Against – Road teams (ATLANTA) - after a win by 10 or more points against opponent coming off a game where 50 total points or more were scored.
(118-77 over the last 10 seasons, 60.5%, +33.3 units)
Rating = 1
• ATLANTA is 22-8 ATS under head coach Mike Smith when coming off a loss against the spread.
RATING = 2
STATFOX FORECASTER
San Francisco 49ers 23
Atlanta Falcons 21
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Betting System:
Road teams - in conference games, after a road game
where both teams scored 24 or more points. (35-10 ATS)
Play = BALTIMORE against the spread
Series History – Last 5 Seasons:
NEW ENGLAND is 2-3-1 ATS, 4-2 SU overall vs. BALTIMORE
NEW ENGLAND is 1-2-1 ATS, 3-1 SU at home vs. BALTIMORE
Statfox Power Trends:
NEW ENG. is 18-4 OVER at home against conference opponents over the L3 seasons.
NEW ENG. is 12-1 OVER at home after 3 or more consecutive wins over L2 seasons.
NEW ENG. is 25-7 OVER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the L3 seasons.
NEW ENG. is 15-1 OVER after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin
of +1 or better over the L2 seasons.
BALT. is 8-0 OVER vs. teams allowing <= 7.5 yards per return over the L2 seasons.
BALT. is 40-23 ATS after a game where 50+ total pointscwere scored since 1992.
In last year’s title game, Baltimore came within a dropped
TD of a victory and a missed short FG of forcing OT at New
England. The Ravens haven’t been as good defensively this
year, allowing 400-plus yards six times this season. New
England hung 41 points and 457 yards on Houston last week,
but will continue to be without TE Rob Gronkowski (arm).
Even with last week’s big win, the Patriots are only 2-5 ATS
in their last seven home playoff games, and they lost SU to
Baltimore in the Divisional round three years ago.
• Play Against – Home favorites
(NEW ENGLAND) - revenging a loss against an opponent when coming off two consecutive covers as a favorite.
(24-5 over the last 10 seasons, 82.8%, +18.5 units)
Rating = 3
• Play Over – Home teams (NEW ENGLAND) - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after scoring 35 points or more in their previous game.
(44-19 over the last 10 seasons, 69.8%, +23.1 units)
Rating = 2
STATFOX FORECASTER
Baltimore Ravens 23
New England Patriots 31
The NFL’s Final Four Recent history suggests we could see a lot of scoring this Sunday
The Conference Championship games have taken on a different feel
lately than most football fans had become accustomed. For one,
no longer is the No. 1 seed a lock to be hosting the game: Prior to
2006, top seeds had hosted 21 of the 26 games since ’93—they will
have hosted only seven of the last 16 once this Sunday’s games are
played in Atlanta and New England.
With upsets becoming more frequent in the earlier rounds, the
typical methods for handicapping the Conference Championships
has changed. We’ll dive deeper into that as we move along, but
we’ll start with the fact that home teams are just 24-16 SU & 18-21-1
ATS in the last 40. One thing that has stayed consistent, however,
is the fact that the games in this round have been reliably high
scoring. In terms of the total, OVER has been the result in 24 of
40 games since ’93, and only three times in that period was the
UNDER the result in both games in a single year.
Recent Trends
We’ve already established the fact that most recent Conference
Championship games have gone OVER the total. If you look back at
just the games since ’05, 12 of the 16 games have seen the total go
that way. Home-field advantage has been restored somewhat as well
of late, with hosts on a run of 10-3 SU & 7-6 ATS dating back to the
late game of January 22nd of 2006. Here are some other general
handicapping tidbits you might be able to utilize this Sunday:
• AFC and NFC Conference Championship games have shown varying results.
In the AFC, road teams are on a run of 5-8 SU & 7-6 ATS
in the last 13 years. In the NFC, home field has been more advantageous, with hosts boasting a record of 5-3 SU & 4-4 ATS in the last eight games.
• Overall, favorites own a slight 11-9 ATS edge in the last 10 years on
Conference Championship Sunday. AFC favorites have carried that
edge, going 7-3 ATS.
• Four of the last six NFC Championship games have gone OVER
the total. The home team has averaged more than 25 points per
game during that span.
Trends by Seed Number
Here’s a breakdown of trends specific to the seed number of the playoff
teams involved in the Conference Championship games:
• Six of the last eight times that a Conference Championship game
was hosted by a non-No. 1 seed, the game went OVER the total,
producing 46.9 PPG. Four of the last six non-No. 1 seeded hosts won
their games, both SU & ATS.
• There have been 14 instances since ’93 in which a seed No. 4 or
lower reached the Conference Championship Round and took on a
No. 1 or No. 2. Those lesser seeds boast a 8-6 SU & 8-5-1 ATS record
in those games.
Trends by Line Range
Lines in the conference title games have been a bit tighter than those
in the previous round, with the average favorite laying less than 5.5
points since ’93. There have been seven home underdogs in that span.
Take a look at these other line specific trends:
• Hosts have been most reliable when playing as favorites in the
-3 to -9.5 line range in Conference Championship Games, going 17-8
SU & 15-10 ATS since ’93. Interestingly, the straight-up winner had
been 22-0 ATS in such games before the streak ended in the January 2010 NFC title game: New Orleans won but failed to cover the
4-point spread in its 31-28 win over Minnesota. Order was restored
in 2011 when the Steelers won and covered at home against the Jets
as a 4-point favorite, but the Patriots last year failed to cover in their
23-20 win as a 7-point favorite over the Ravens. Eight straight contests of this type had gone OVER the total prior to last year’s AFC
title game, which had a line of 49.
• Going back to ’93, 10 Conference Championship games have
seen a line move 1.5 points or more throughout the week. Bettors
are 4-5-1 ATS in those games following the money, but when the
line has moved three points or more, bettors are just 0-3-1 ATS.
In other words, you’d have been much better off fading the line
move in such cases.
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NELLY'S GREEN SHEET
RATING 2: San Francisco
RATING 1: UNDER SF/ATL
RATING 2: New England
RATING 1: OVER BAL/NE
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Jimmy Boyd
3* (NFL) Atlanta Falcons +5
3* (NFL) New England Pats -8.5
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POWERSWEEP
Conference Finals
SAN FRAN-3/47' (12-4-1)
ATLANTA+3/47' (14-3)
This is the 1st meeting between these staffs w/the last matchup in 2010 which ATL won 16-14 as a 7 pt HF. SF is 6-1 ATS in EST games under Harbaugh w/the only loss being at BAL on Thanksgiving which had the NFL change its sked policy prior to 2012. SF owns a 5-3 SU/ATS record on the road TY with +30 ypg (+5 TO's). ATL is now 8-1 SU/4-5 ATS at home for -17 ypg (+7 TO's). ATL is 5-1 SU/3-3 ATS vs the common foes of NO/ARZ/NYG/DET/SEA for -13 ypg (+5 TO's) and a 28-18 avg score. SF earned a 5-2 SU/3-3-1 ATS mark against the same foes (+48 ypg, -1 TO's) with a 20-19 avg
score.
In Kaepernick's 4 road starts (2-2 SU/ATS) he's avg'd 226 ypg (59%) w/a 6-3 ratio. Matt Ryan at home TY has avg'd 267 ypg (65%) w/a 14-11 ratio. In NFL playoffs history, teams trailing by 20 or more points after 3Q's are 0-84.
Prior to Kaepernick, SF avg'd 366 ypg, 215 ypg pass and 23.7 ppg. Since he took over it's 356 ypg, 230 ypg pass and 26.3 ppg but he is much more aggressive with the ball as SF uses more of the Pistol off. Gore quietly logged his 2nd str year of 1,200 yds rush thanks to the best OL in the NFL TY that gave up 1 sk every 16 pass att's w/Kaepernick
vs 1 every 8.4 w/Smith. Crabtree has finally taken to being a #1 WR here and became the 1st WR w/1,000 yds recs/'03 while Davis has admitted he's not as comfortable w/a new QB at the helm. Losing Manningham (knee) created an unknown as it was a ? as to how much gas Moss has left. SF's OL was one of 3 to start every game together TY
(MIN/NYJ). SF's D ret'd all 11 st'rs from LY's #4 unit and they didn't miss a start until Justin Smith tore a tricep. He is the key cog in the system setting up the majority of Aldon Smith's 19.5 regular ssn sks to a stop unit that all'd 91 ypg (3.6) rush w/him in the lineup. The 49ers also have the best LB unit in the NFL w/Aldon, Willis and Bowman locked up longterm. They own the #5 pass D and their 6.1 ypa is 2nd best. SF has our #10 ST's TY despite Akers struggles.
ATL took a big risk replacing its OC/DC prior to the year but it has paid off very well. The offense now goes through Ryan instead of supporting him. Ryan put up career numbers across the board but faced just 3 teams that
finished w/a top 10 def avg 301 ypg (68%) w/a 10-3 ratio (3-1 SU/2-2 ATS). Ryan has helped White and Jones become ATL's 1st 1,100 yd rec tandem since 1998 with Gonzalez finishing 70 yds short of ATL's 1st 1,000 yd trio since 1995. ATL's run game hasn't had much if any impact TY as RB Turner has slowed down (3.6). ATL's OL has
been ultra-reliable w/4 of 5 OL playing 98.7% of the snaps TY as they had their 5th year of under 30 sks allowed.
While ATL's #24 def is a bit misleading (#5 def pts, #2 def ypp) they struggled for sacks (#27) and were mauled vs the run (4.8 ypc 29th). On the flip side, ATL's 14-20 ratio was the best in the NFL TY w/a very formidable secondary when healthy. Overall, DC Nolan has this def playing better than the sum of its parts on all levels. Despite a strong
year by Bosher (40.7 net, 37% punts inside 20), ATL has our #16 spec tms unit due to avg return units.
ATL faced a mobile QB twice a year in Newton but they still allowed 28 and 30 pts to CAR TY. Kaepernick has a better OL than CAR w/a faster burst and gets to play on turf here. SF has gone Over in 5 straight and ATL's D isn't that stout due to a soft sked. ATL also has big play weapons in the passing game w/the confidence for a shootout here.
FORECAST: OVER 49ERS/FALCONS RATING: 3*
BALTIMORE+9/51 (12-6)
NEW ENGLAND-9/51 (13-4)
This is the 6th meeting in 4 years and 3rd playoff matchup in that time with the L/3 games being decided by 3 or less. BAL was a dropped ball in the EZ/missed FG away from making the SB in LY's AFC Championship w/a 398-330 yd edge losing 23-20 as a 7 pt AD. BAL squeaked out a 31-30 win as a 2 pt HF in a very emotional game for them. They had a 503-396 yd edge hitting the game winning FG as time expired as NE blew a 13-0 lead. BAL pulled in a 2-2 SU/ATS record vs the common foes of HOU/DEN/IND for a -53 mark (-2 TO's) and a 30-23 avg deficit. NE tallied a 4-0 SU/ATS record over 435 yds/30 pts in 3 of 4 matchups. BAL is 5-4 SU/4-5 ATS on the road for 2012 w/a -24 ypg (+7 TO's) margin. NE is now 7-2 SU/5-4 ATS at home for 2012 avg over 420 ypg/35 ppg.
2012 was supposed to be the yr that Flacco, in a contract yr, broke out but the off had become quite predictable and Rice wasn't being utilized to his fullest (2 100 yd gms vs 6 LY). Flacco had a solid 15-5 ratio (8.3 ypa) at home but just 7-5 ratio (5.9 ypa) on the road. Rice does have a solid amount of rec's but that's coming off checkdowns. Boldin remains a solid #2 type w/Smith being a dangerous deep threat. BAL likes to use the 2 TE sets but they are much more conservative than NE in scheme. The OL is above avg (#20 sks, 4.7 ypc) which is a disappointment w/the talent.
2002 was the last time BAL wasn't in the top 10 for D for ydg but they remain top 10 in ypp. Inj's have hit every level here but they should have 9 of 11 opening day st'rs (CB Webb/LB McClain) here. The fact they had only given up a 14-13 ratio shows their uality of depth. BAL has our #1 ST's unit thanks to Jones work comb w/a great yr by Koch.
For the 4th time in his L5Y of full starts, Brady has finished with 24 more td's than int. NE's ability to effortlessly shift from the spread to 2 TE to a power running game (3 out of 4Y w/top 12 rush offense) sets them apart from other offenses. Ridley became the 1st 1,200 yd rusher for NE since Corey Dillon in 2004 and he hasn't fully grown into the
system yet. NE has the best 2 TE set in the NFL w/Gronkowski being a stronger receiving TE and Hernandez being more well rounded. Welker was the 1st player in NFL history w/5 100 rec seasons and Lloyd has been a strong, but not dominant, addition. The OL has been dinged a bit due to injuries to Mankins/Vollmer but it's still a physical
system oriented unit. NE's #25 def ranking is wildly misleading as they were 4th in yds per pt and tied Belichick's record w/41 takeaways. Wilfork continues to be the fulcrum of the DL with rookie Chandler Jones making a strong impression. The strength of the defense is versatility with Mayo being a rare 3 Dn LB. NE's secondary is a concern
but picking up Talib was a great move and McCourty has been stellar moving around. NE's #17 spec teams is due to a mediocre net avg by Mesko who doesn't get to boom it like other P's but NE has excellent coverage/return units.
This is the 1st conference finals rematch s/'92-'93 when DAL beat SF in back-to-back seasons. BAL is now looking for playoff revenge after TY's loss in wk 3. The public has jumped on the Ray Lewis bandwagon but that type of emotion is tough to carry into a 3rd straight week and 2nd straight road game. Much prefer to back a Belichick coached squad with Brady at the helm with a foe that he's seeing for the 3rd time in 12 months.
FORECAST: PATRIOTS by 16 RATING: 2*
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Johnny Harrison / Vegas Killers
NFL CHAMPIONSHIP
Atlanta Falcons +5
Atlanta Falcons ML +175
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SCOTT SPREITZER'S
CONF CHAMPIONSHIP G.O.Y!
New England Patriots
I'm laying the points with New England in Sunday's AFC Championship. The Baltimore Ravens have made it to the conference title game, but they haven't been getting it done on the defensive side in the postseason, or for most of the regular season either. The Ravens' defense gave up 35 points, 30 first downs, and was on the field for 84 plays in last week's double-OT win over Denver. They allowed 25 first downs and 419 yards to Indianapolis, on a whopping 84 plays in the wildcard round. That's 168 offensive plays the Raven defense has faced the the last two weekends. And let's not forget they allowed 23, 34, and 31 points in three of their final four regular season contests. Even without Ron Gronkowski, the Patriots should have little trouble moving the football and scoring points. After all, the Pats went 4-1 in the five games Gronkowski missed during the season. The Pats average a league-best 427.9 total yards per game. They own the league's 4th best passing offense and they're an under-hyped 7th on the ground. New England has averaged 38.1 ppg in their last 10 games, including last weekend's 41-28 win over Houston. Bill Belichick's troops are 8-2 ATS this season as a favorite of 3 1/2 to 9 1/2 points this season and they're 13-4 ATS in revenge of a same season loss under Belichick (lost 31-30 in Sept). Finally, NFL home favorites of 3 1/2 to 10 points are on a 33-12 ATS run if they outgain their opponents by an average of 40 to 100 yards, provided their current opponent owns a +40/-40 average margin per game, as long as they gained at least 400 yards in their previous outing. Look for New England to put Baltimore's season and Ray Lewis' playing career to bed with a big win and cover on Sunday. I'm laying the points with the Patriots. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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POINTWISE PHONES:
3 Stars: San Francisco, Over in SanFrancisco/Atlanta Game
2 Stars: New England, Over in Baltimore/NewEngland Game
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Sean Pendergast
49ers -4 over FALCONS
Every gambling metric in this game screams "TAKE THE FALCONS!!" The Falcons are the biggest home underdog in the history of the conference championship round and in the history of number one overall seeds. Last week, Seattle (a team that smoked these same 49ers in Week 16 of the NFL regular season 42-13) was a three point underdog to the Falcons in Atlanta. Now, I'm guessing based largely on the images of Colin Kaepernick running shredding the Packers defense like they were a high school team last week, the Niners are four point favorites. A seven point swing!? Wow.
On the other hand, if you're even thinking about pushing "SEND" on an Atlanta wager, don't those images horrify you? Aren't you going to feel stupid when Kaepernick is in his fourth or fifth dead sprint for another explosive gain by the third quarter? When Frank Gore is pounding an Atlanta defense that gives up 4.7 yards per carry, won't you feel like a dope? You will.
Yes, Matt Ryan has won 85 percent of his home games since coming into the league in 2008, but I have a little theory that before I decide on whom to bet, I take one last look at a Google image of their head coach. If there are enough pictures of them to remind me of how beleaguered they are in big game situations, it's oppo time, kids!
I'll take Harbaugh over Smith, all day long.
Prediction: 49ers 27, Falcons 19
Ravens +8 1/2 over PATRIOTS
If you recall last week, the story about the spread on the Texans-Patriots game went like this:
"The Texans were only a three point road dog in December against the Patriots, and on the strength of a 42-14 Pats win, the line moved all the way to 9 points at kickoff. Wow, six points is a huge move based on one bad night for the Texans. That doesn't seem right!"
Well, it turns out it was spot on, to the point where a late field goal wound up blowing the cover for many Texans bettors who bought the spread up to 10 points (looks in mirror).
So now here come the Ravens, who were 3-point favorites in Baltimore during the regular season, and beat the Patriots on a last-second replacement referee aided field goal. So if you swing the home field around for this game by six points, and consider the two teams played virtually even during the regular season, then we would expect a 3 or maybe 3 1/2-point spread, right? Especially considering the Ravens have proven time and again to be, at worst, a formidable, crazy tough out for New England, no?
Well, the Ravens are an 8 1/2 point underdog, a 5 1/2 point swing from where the line "should" be. So we are right back to where we were with the Texans last weekend, with an underdog who has perceived value. Now, before you get scared away by the egg the Texans laid last weekend, understand this -- unlike the Texans, the Ravens don't fear the Patriots. The Ravens have balls.
In their last six match-ups, each team is 3-3 against the spread, with the Patriots covering by a total of five points and the Ravens covering by a total of 44 points. Tom Brady's quarterback rating is 14 points lower against the Ravens than it is versus the rest of the league. The Patriots have won 14 of 16 playoff games, but covered only 2 of their 10.
On top of that, this Ray Lewis retirement festival is starting to take on that "team of destiny" feel, and Joe Flacco's long-term contract is beginning to feel like a reality. I can't believe I'm doing this....
Prediction: Ravens 34, Patriots 31
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Preferred Picks
5* Baltimore
3* Atlanta
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Jimmy Boyd
3* Atlanta Falcons +5
3* New England Pats -8.5
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NFL
Conference Title Games
Last six times #1 seed played #2 seed in NFC title game, #1 seed won, but dogs covered four of last five NFC title games overall. Over last five years, underdogs are 6-4 vs spread in this round. Atlanta is underdog at home despite 8-1 mark in Georgia Dome, with only loss in meaningless Week 17 game. Smith/Ryan combo got monkey off back with first playoff win last week; they have Falcons here for first time since 27-10 loss at Philly eight years ago. 49ers lost this game at home LY, but now have more mobile Kaepernick at QB-- he dominated game against Green Bay last week, running ball for 181 yards, passing for 263 after throwing an early pik-6. SF is 2-2 in domes this year, losing at Rams/Vikings, winning at Cardinals/Saints. Eight of last nine Niner games went over total, including last five in row; six of last eight Atlanta games stayed under.
Since 1990, #4 seeds are 6-1 in conference title games, with '08 Cardinals only team that was at home; #4 seeds are 4-0 SU at #2 seeds in this round. Patriots (+3) led 13-0 after first quarter, lost 31-30 to Ravens in Baltimore back in Week 3, in flagfest (24 accepted penalties/218 yards) where Baltimore gained total of 503 yards, with Flacco averaging 9.8 ypa less than 24 hours after WR Smith (6 catches, 127 yards) lost his brother in motorcycle accident. Game ended on FG by rookie PK Tucker, who replaced Cundiff after he missed tying FG at end of LY's AFC title game, won 23-20 by Patriots (-7). Ravens playing with emotion trying to get leader Lewis into Super Bowl in his last year playing. Last time same two teams played in same stadium in consecutive conference title games was in '78-'79, when Oilers lost twice in Pittsburgh. 12 of last 15 Patriot games went over.
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NFL conference championship betting trends January 18, 2013 9:57 PM by Bob Christ
Special To GamingToday
For the 17th time since the merger, a home team in the conference title round has been installed as an underdog. This time it’s the top-seeded Falcons against the long-distance-traveling 49ers.
Perhaps strangely, these underdogs are only 8-8 ATS, but have paid off nicely for money-line bettors along the way by going 8-8 SU. That could be a wise option here.
This is also only the third time since the current seeding system was instituted in 1990 that a No. 1 seed was in this underdog spot: The host New York Giants routed the second-seeded Minnesota Vikings 41-0 in 2000 and in 1997 San Francisco was a 23-10 loser at home to defending champ Green Bay, which was a 2½-point choice.
Also, in a trend mentioned last week, since 2007 teams are now 10-2 ATS as a playoff underdog of 8-plus points and 8-4 straight up. Included was Baltimore’s stunner in Denver last week, 38-35 in OT, as a 9-point ’dog.
Can the Ravens do it again this week at New England?
The Patriots of all teams should know. In their first Super season, in 2001, they beat Pittsburgh in the AFC title game as a 10-point underdog and then downed the 14-point-favorite Rams in the Super Bowl.
And, good luck figuring out the OVER/UNDERS this week. In the wild-card round, each of the four UNDERS were winners by at least 8 points. In the divisional round, all four OVERS were good by at least 10. In fact, if you played OVER for the Grand Salami (185 points), you had the victory clinched well before Sunday’s late game.
Maybe this will help: OVERS are 15-7 in this round since 2001.
Now for a closer look at this week’s conference clashes:
PRO FOOTBALL NFC CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS – SUNDAY, JAN. 20
49ers (12-4-1) at Falcons (14-3)
Time: Noon PST
Line: 49ers -3½ (49)
Weather: Indoors
Facts: Colin Kaepernick’s 181 rushing yards last week for SF were more than Peyton Manning has had the past decade.
• Atlanta averages 3.7 yards a run and yields 4.8. That differential of minus 1.1 yards is the third worst for a Final Four team in the Super Bowl era. In 1960, however, the Eagles were champs despite a negative 1.7 margin (3.2/4.9).
• The host Falcons squandered a 20-point lead to Seattle last week, but won 30-28 on a late FG. Had Atlanta lost, it would have matched the biggest collapse by a home playoff team. In the 1957 game to decide the Western Conference title, SF blew a 27-7 lead in a 31-27 loss to Detroit.
• The 49ers, who lost in this round last year, are trying to become the 10th team since the merger to lose in a conference final one year and win the crown the next, but only the second to do so on the road (Rams 1979).
Analysis: The 49ers mauled Green Bay 45-31 last week with four TD drives of 80-plus yards, including back-to-back 93-yard marches late, gaining 323 rushing along the way. It was the weekend’s most dominating performance.
They should be fueled this week going 6-0 SU/ATS the past two seasons playing in the Eastern time zone (the other three West Coast teams in that span are a cumulative 8-16 SU and 9-14-1 ATS).
Atlanta, meanwhile, had no answer for stopping rookie QB Russell Wilson last week when he led the Seahawks’ charge. But what might work in the Falcons’ favor is that they finally broke through for their first playoff victory in Mike Smith-Matt Ryan regime. And since they also enter here as an underdog, perhaps some of the pressure will be lifted. Thus…
Forecast: Falcons 28, 49ers 24
PRO FOOTBALL AFC CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS
Ravens (12-6) at Patriots (13-4)
Time: 3:30 p.m. PST
Line: Patriots -8 (51)
Weather: Low 30s; wind 15-17 mph
Facts: In the five-season John Harbaugh-Joe Flacco era, this marks their ninth road playoff adventure (4-4 SU/5-3 ATS) with the Ravens. Conversely, this is the 14th postseason home outing for the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady bunch, where they are 11-2 SU, 6-6-1 ATS).
• Baltimore beat Denver last week despite yielding a kickoff and punt return score. The last team to survive two such TDs and win was Baltimore in 2011, when defeating the Jets 34-17.
• Enemy QBs have fumbled a league-high 19 times vs. New England this season, losing 10. Baltimore’s numbers are at 12/6, including two fumbles last week by Peyton Manning (losing one), matching his total for the season.
• Baltimore’s offense was ranked 16th and its defense 17th this season. The last Super team to be out of the top 15 in both categories was NE in 2001 (19/24).
• The Ravens’ defense has been on the field 87 plays in each of the past two weeks. That 174 total is the most over a two-week span for anyone the past five seasons.
Analysis: The Ravens’ 31-30 victory over the Patriots in Week 3, the only time the past 27 games NE wasn’t a favorite (+2½), wasn’t a fluke. Baltimore had four TD drives of 80-plus yards, including two of 92, which tied for the league high this season.
On the other hand, one of the Patriots’ scores was a 6-yard drive, the only time this season NE’s offense was set up inside the 10. Plus, the Patriots will be without one of Brady’s favorite targets, TE Rob Gronkowski – Or “Gonk,” as Boston’s mayor says. He is out with a broken arm. That’s a big deal.
The Ravens seem to have a bottomless pit of adrenaline to be capable of pulling another upset. At least enough to beat the line, anyway.
Forecast: Patriots 31, Ravens 30
Last week: 1-3 ATS; 3-1 SU
Season ATS: 129-124-6 (.510).
Season SU: 154-109-1 (.586)
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Richard Saber @ Gaming Today
SUNDAY
NFC championship
San Francisco 49ers -3½ at Atlanta Falcons (48½): This game opened at -3 and I agree with the move. Atlanta has been lucky all season long, winning ugly with the exception of blowing out the Giants on Dec. 16. These two teams did not play in the regular season. If the time out was not called the 49ers would be meeting the Seahawks for the third time. If the 49ers could travel to New England and get the win as they did back in October they will win this one with their ice water running QB. 49ERS.
AFC championship
Baltimore Ravens +9½ at New England Patriots (51): How the Ravens beat the Broncos is still a mystery to me, but they did. The Pats beat them last year in this same spot 23-20. The Ravens did beat the Pats in Baltimore this year 31-30. No matter what, we must take the points in a high scoring game with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. RAVENS/OVER.
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Mark Mayer @ Gaming Today
Last week: 0-3-1.
NFC
49ers -3½ at Falcons: Atlanta is the top seed, at home and a sizable underdog. General thought is if Robert Wilson gave the Atlanta defense so much trouble, imagine what Colin Kaepernick would do. OK, but this is the Georgia Dome and Matt Ryan has a great record there. ATLANTA.
AFC
Ravens +9½ at Patriots: An even more curious number than the NFC title game. I would think this line will come down a bit during the week. At 9½ and judging upon recent history, including the one point Ravens win at Baltimore, it just seems like too many points. Buy now if you like the dog. BALTIMORE.
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Andy Iskoe
49ers -3½ at Falcons (48.5): San Francisco was, in many respects, more impressive in its win than were the Falcons. The 49ers did have to come from behind in its win over Green Bay, falling behind 7-0 and 14-7 before taking a 24-21 halftime lead. After the Packers tied the game in the middle of the third quarter at 24, the Niners then scored 21 straight points in what turned out to be a 45-31 win.
The Falcons had a dominant first half in their win over Seattle, building a 20-0 lead at the half which was then 27-7 into the fourth quarter. But then Seattle did what it had been doing all season and they rallied to take a 28-27 lead with a half minute remaining. Atlanta then dramatically moved downfield and got the game winning FG in a 30-28 win.
The win ended all that talk about how these Falcons could not win a playoff game, and, as it turned out, it did not come easy. As such the Falcons are rare home underdogs in a Conference Championship game. Since 1990 this will be just the eighth time that a team has been a home underdog in the game that decides who will go to the Super Bowl. The line is similar to the previous seven games that saw the home team close from 2.5 to 3.5 point underdogs.
Atlanta has won the last four meetings against the 49ers dating back to 2004. The last two wins have come with Smith as coach and Matt Ryan at QB but both were before Jim Harbaugh took over as San Francisco coach in 2011 Atlanta has the better offensive stats but the edges are very slim.
San Francisco has a huge edge in total defense (No. 3 versus 24) point the game is considerably narrower when looking at points allowed (No. 1 versus No. 5 and an edge for the Niners of just 1.6 points per game). The Falcons fared much better in their revenge matchup, shutting out the Giants 34-0 in a late season game that had more practical implications and a sense of urgency for the then 8-5 Giants than for the 11-2 Falcons who were all but certain to lock up the No. 1 NFC seed at the time.
The Falcons won and covered both games in which they were underdogs this season, at San Diego in week three and at Philadelphia in midseason. They are 8-1 SU at home with the lone loss coming in a meaningless game in Week 17. Expect a much more focused effort this week if Atlanta gets out in front. An upset is clearly possible but getting at least a FG is attractive. FALCONS.
Ravens +9½ at Patriots (51): This should be yet another physical contest between teams that know each other very well. The Pats will be without star TE Rob Gronkowski as he reinjured his forearm and is out for the balance of the Playoffs. This will be Baltimore’s twelfth playoff game since 2008. The Ravens are 7-4 both SU and ATS in the prior 11, including 5-4 on the road. The Pats have played just six Playoff games in the same stretch, going 3-3 SU but 2-4 ATS in those games.
New England has won 4 of the last five meetings with the Ravens, including the win in last season’s Conference Championship game. The four wins, all since 2007, have been by three, six, three and three points. The lone loss came at home in the 2010 playoffs when Baltimore won handily 33-14, and, as noted earlier, ended a streak of 11 straight home Playoff wins by New England that dated back to 1996, the last 8 of which were in the Belichick/Brady era that dates back to 2001.
New England has the better offense, ranking first in the NFL in both yards per game and points scored. Baltimore was just average in total offense (16) but did rank tenth in points scored. New England ranked number 25 in total defense but 9 in points allowed. The Ravens were 17 in total defense but improved to 12 in points allowed.
Both offenses excel at protecting the football. Each lost just 16 turnovers during the regular season. While Baltimore’s defense forced 25 turnovers the Pats were even better, creating 41 takeaways, an average of one per game more than the usually aggressive Ravens. After announcing his retirement at the conclusion of their season, the Ravens future Hall of Fame linebacker Ray Lewis has helped his team win twice in these playoffs, including the huge upset in Denver.
Recent history of these teams against each other, and the overall playoffs experience of the underdog Ravens, suggest that this will be another competitive game. RAVENS.
Record
Last Week
1-2-1
NFL
121-116-2
playoffs
1-2-1
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Larry Ness
10* Las Vegas Insider "Total GOY"
Game: San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons
Prediction: OVER
Reason: Form held in the divisional round of the NFC, as the top-seeded Falcons and 2nd-seeded 49ers advanced to the championship game. However, the teams took totally different paths. The Falcons dominated the first half (led 20-0) and took a 27-7 lead into the fourth quarter vs the Seahawks, before ‘coughing up’ the lead in the final 30 seconds. Amazingly, ”Matty Ice” was just that, completing back-to-back passes of 22 and 19 yards to set up Matt Bryant’s game-winning 49-yard FG. As for the 49ers, they broke open a close game (tied 24-all in the early third quarter) in the second half, as Colin Kaepernick rushed for a quarterback-record 181 yards (regular or postseason) while adding two rushing TDs plus overcame an early interception returned for a TD by throwing for 263 more yards with two TD strikes. Kaepernick had a 98.7 QB rating while going 6-2 as a starter since taking over for Alex Smith but the jury was still out. That is until last weekend, as his overall performance in San Fran’s 45-31 divisional round victory over Green Bay seemingly makes San Francisco a more dangerous opponent than it was a year ago. The Falcons finally won that first p[alyoff game of the Smith/Ryan era and one can’t ignore that Atlanta has now earned the NFC’s top seed in TWO of the last three seasons. "Our goal is not to win one playoff game," said Matt Ryan, who was 24 of 35 for 250 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions against the Seahawks. "Our goals are still in front of us. We still have two more games to go. That's the mindset I have. That's the mindset this team has." Atlanta’s D is much better than Green Bay’s but mobile, athletic and versatile QBs have given the Falcons trouble this season. Carolina's Cam Newton threw for 502 yards with four TDs and no picks while rushing for 202 and two scores in two games against them in 2012. Then, in last Sunday's 30-28 win over Seattle, Seahawks rookie Russell Wilson passed for 385 yards with two TDs and an INT while running for 60 yards and a score on just seven carries. "These young guys, they are athletic and they can run," DC Mike Nolan said. "That creates a whole new set of problems." Atlanta surrendered 5.90 yards per play this season (29th in the league) and allowed the Seahawks to average a whopping 7.44 in the divisional round. As for San Francisco’s defense, it ranked 4th in total yards (308.2 YPG) last season and 1st in points allowed (14.3 per). This year’s team finished 3rd in yards allowed (294.4 per) and about a FG higher in points allowed at 17.1 PPG. That said, one can’t ignore that the 49ers allowed 34 points at New England in Week 15, 42 points up in Seattle in Week 16 and 31 points last Saturday to the 49ers in that 14-point win. Matt Ryan was far from perfect last weekend but after going 0-3 in his previous postseason games (194.7 YPG with three TDs, four INTs, 10 sacks and a 71.2 QB rating), his performance last Sunday seemed almost Montana-like in comparison. Ryan has arguably the NFL’s best three-man receiving corps in WRs White (100 / 13.0 YPC / 8 TDs) and Jones (54 / 17.8 YPC / 8 TDs) plus future Hall of fame TE Gonzalez (80 / 10.9 YPC / 7 TDs). Ryan’s faced the 49ers twice before, completing 64.0 percent of his passes for 602 yards with three TDs and three INTs while going 2-0 against them (note: both meetings were before Jim Harbaugh took over as San Francisco coach in 2011). Meanwhile, the 49ers showcased an offense last weekend which gained 29 FDs and 579 total yards. The 49ers ran for 323 yards on 7.5 YPC (Gore had a ‘quiet’ 119 yards on 23 yards in support of Kaepernick) plus added 256 yards passing. In the perfect conditions of the Georgia Dome, this game has all the makings of a shoot-out and that’s EXACTLY what I expect. Go over!
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Rickjs Handicapping Picks Sunday College Hoops
1 Unit Play
815 Clemson +10
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