UFC 113

[poopoo333]

http://www.bestfightodds.com/events/247.png (http://www.bestfightodds.com)


I've taken Stout for 3u already @-190.

Fights I am looking at:
Guymon vs Yoshida...I think Yoshida will submit him
Hendricks vs Grant... I think Hendricks will win, I don't think Grant can submit him
Davis vs Goulet... Davis by KO when touching gloves
Koscheck vs Daley... I don't think Koscheck is going to be dumb enough to stand up with a potential title shot on the line, that being said.. I am still skeptical
Rua vs Machida... Shogun has value @+165, I am contemplating taking him now or later, his line might get better

[Luke]

Three fighters I'm thinking of taking is:Kimbo,Belcher,Machida but havent really looked at things to in depth yet

[poopoo333]

Three fighters I'm thinking of taking is:Kimbo,Belcher,Machida but havent really looked at things to in depth yet

Belcher should win, Cote is coming off a very long layoff from a pretty serious injury (which happened twice since UFC 90).

[Mr. IWS]

Nothing really jumps out at me on this one.

[MMA_scientist]

I think Tom Lawlor has a pretty godo style matchup with Tim Creduer. Lawlor has the wrestling and jj to decide where the fight goes and stuff any sub attempts. His hands also looked massively improved against Simpson. I like Lawlor a lot here, I just hope the line is good.

I also like Koscheck and Hendricks.

[SPX]

I've already taken Daley, Stephens, Mitrione, and Belcher.

Kos has been wanting to stand lately and every fight starts on the feet. I don't expect him to come out and immediately shoot, though he might. At +260, at which I put .75u on Daley, I like his chances.

Stephens/Stout, in my mind, is pretty much a pick 'em. Stout definitely looked improved against Lauzon, but I don't believe he deserves to be such a favorite. I have 1u (I think) on Stephens at +160.

Took Mitrione for .5u @ +150 (or somewhere around there). Why? Cause he's fighting Kimbo. That's about it. Maybe he'll win, maybe not.

1u on Belcher at +120. Cote is coming off a long lay off and Belcher is more well rounded. Belcher just needs to make sure not to get into a brawl like he did with Gouveia.

Other plays I'm considering, pending further research and the line:

Salter
Yoshida
Hendricks
Davis
Lawlor

[Mr. IWS]

Im starting to consider Kos. If the winner gets a title shot, I have to believe that Kos wont fuck around in there, and just get out with a win.

[Ludo]

Yeah Belcher is a horrible first fight back for Cote. Especially with Belchers nasty kicks, if he lands a few on that knee Cote blew out at UFC90 then this one could be over pretty fast.

[poopoo333]

Watch the preview of UFC 113 on the UFC website. Koscheck says he may just go in there and stand toe to toe with Daley..he is that egotistical.


Koscheck via KO....since Rosholt didn't get the chance to submit Horn last night, Kos will knock Daley clean out in a few weeks

[zY|]

^^You's trollin

[AC88]

As of right now, I'm thinking Belcher, Shogun and Lawlor. I didn't know Lawlor was fighting on this card.... ::fingerscrossed::

[poopoo333]

As of right now, I'm thinking Belcher, Shogun and Lawlor. I didn't know Lawlor was fighting on this card.... ::fingerscrossed::

Belcher is a good bet imo. Cote is coming off 2 injuries, not just the one from the Silva fight. I am pretty sure he reinjured his ACL or whatever it was. He also hasn't fought in like 19 months by the time UFC 113 will roll around.

[Ludo]

2u to win 1.6u on Belcher
2u to win 3.2u on Shogun
1u parlay to win 3.9u on Belcher, Mitrione, and Koscheck

[poopoo333]

I currently have 3u on Koscheck and 3u on Stout.

I am waiting for Shogun's odds to get a little better to take him. I am looking at Alan Belcher/Patrick Cote at the moment. I will be on Yoshida, Lawlor, and Hendricks as well depending on the lines.

I am also going to bet 20u on Kimbo Slice.

Do any of you have any input on the Yoshida/Guymon fight?

[Ludo]

20u on Kimbo against a guy he has a huge chance to lose against?

[zY|]

20u on Kimbo against a guy he has a huge chance to lose against?

I think(hope) he's still trolling.

[Ludo]

Yeah cause Mitrione totally didn't knock the shit out of two guys on that show whereas Kimbo got knocked out in under 15 seconds by Seth fuckin' Petruzelli. Not to mention Mitrione cuts to 265 whereas Kimbo walks around at 230lbs with a knee that's about to give out at any moment.

So Matt Mitrione didn't permanently damage Scott Junk's eye with punches? He didn't knock Marcus Jones out while moving backwards when they fought? Don't kid yourself. Kimbo's brawling "stand in front of you and trade bombs" style plays right into the hands of the larger and more powerful fighter. This is far from easy money on Kimbo.

[zY|]

Yeah cause Mitrione totally didn't knock the shit out of two guys on that show whereas Kimbo got knocked out in under 15 seconds by Seth fuckin' Petruzelli. Not to mention Mitrione cuts to 265 whereas Kimbo walks around at 230lbs with a knee that's about to give out at any moment.

So Matt Mitrione didn't permanently damage Scott Junk's eye with punches? He didn't knock Marcus Jones out while moving backwards when they fought? Don't kid yourself. Kimbo's brawling "stand in front of you and trade bombs" style plays right into the hands of the larger and more powerful fighter. This is far from easy money on Kimbo.

Don't forget that Meathead has a hell of a chin as well.

[poopoo333]

20u on Kimbo against a guy he has a huge chance to lose against?

I think(hope) he's still trolling.

It was a joke obviously. Just like Luke (I think it was Luke) and I stated we had a bunch of money on Tim Stout in a thread while being sarcastic. But if I WERE to actually bet on this fight, I would bet on Kimbo.

And I was not trolling when I said Rosholt would submit Horn and was not trolling when I said Koscheck will (T)KO Daley!! You should know by now weird stuff happens in MMA (Frank Mir TKOing Nog, Cain KOing Nog, Gonzaga knocking CC out with a head kick, Griffin submitting Shogun, Kimbo Slice getting a fighter's back, etc).

[SPX]

And I was not trolling when I said Rosholt would submit Horn and was not trolling when I said Koscheck will (T)KO Daley!! You should know by now weird stuff happens in MMA (Frank Mir TKOing Nog, Cain KOing Nog, Gonzaga knocking CC out with a head kick, Griffin submitting Shogun, Kimbo Slice getting a fighter's back, etc).

To say that it CAN happen and to say that it WILL happen is two very different things. If you say that either of those could--and possibly would--happen then I'm sure we'll all agree with you. But to say that they WILL happen is just foolishness.

[poopoo333]

And I was not trolling when I said Rosholt would submit Horn and was not trolling when I said Koscheck will (T)KO Daley!! You should know by now weird stuff happens in MMA (Frank Mir TKOing Nog, Cain KOing Nog, Gonzaga knocking CC out with a head kick, Griffin submitting Shogun, Kimbo Slice getting a fighter's back, etc).

To say that it CAN happen and to say that it WILL happen is two very different things. If you say that either of those could--and possibly would--happen then I'm sure we'll all agree with you. But to say that they WILL happen is just foolishness.

Ok well Koscheck is going to TKO Daley anyways.

[SPX]

Ok well Koscheck is going to TKO Daley anyways.

That's probably less likely than Rosholt submitting Horn. . .

[zY|]

^^not really. He'll take him down and brutalize him against the cage.

[poopoo333]

^^not really. He'll take him down and brutalize him against the cage.

Yeah, Kos via GNP isn't that unlikely at all. But I think Daley MAY be a little overrated as as striker. I am pretty sure Nick Thompson was outstriking Daley. Daley just seems to have really heavy hands.

[SPX]

^^not really. He'll take him down and brutalize him against the cage.

I was more thinking (T)KO initiated from a strike on the feet.

[poopoo333]

Anyways, back on topic. How do you guys see the line moving on Shogun/Machida?

[SPX]

Anyways, back on topic. How do you guys see the line moving on Shogun/Machida?

I expected money to pour in on Shogun as the soon as the line opened and thought Machida would get to about -135 or so. I was wrong. So I don't know.

[Johnny Unreliable]

Yeah I was a bit confused to see the line favoring machida after the first fight. Not sure why everyone seems to think that much has changed since that fight. Machida didn't look very good that night. If shogun can stay patient and punish the legs and body with kicks like the first fight I see him winning a decision.


Be on Shogun if the line gets a little better. If anything it should be an even line with a slight favor to Shogun.


Also I'm all over belcher. He's a much better fighter than Cote whose really only shown he has heavy hands.

[Ludo]

I wouldn't call Belcher a better fighter than Patrick Cote... If it weren't for a huge layoff and the recurring ACL injury I wouldn't be putting money on Belcher. If this were pre UFC90, I'd be betting Cote to murder Belcher.

[Luke]

^^^ what he said expect for the part about Cote murdering Belcher .I think it would have been a good fight even then.I'm still on the fence on this one ,still leaning Belcher though

[Ipickdeeznuts2win]

Finally able to talk about betting again haha. It has taken awhile to recover from pretty massive loss I had with Penn. I lost all my winnings from the last 6 months which definitely sucks ass. But I will use it as a hard lesson learned. I said I wouldn't put all my eggs in one basket after the GSP/Hardy fight, but I did, and I lost so shame on me.

With that behind me.....

I thinking:

Hendricks - 5U - I really like strong wrestlers because if something isn't going their way (King Mo gassing in the first) they can always go to their bread and butter. Hendricks by TKO

Davis - 5U - I have no idea why Goulet is still in the UFC but Poopoo had it on the money with the KO by touching glove...although he could be full of shit..ba dum dum..Davis by KO/TKO

Lawlor - 5U - Put a clinic on A-train (again a wrestler reverting to bread and butter when not going his way) and Tim is no wrestler to go to TD's when Lawlor starts pounding. Not to mention Tim lost his last fight to Nate and you see how bad Nate was against Jorge. Lawlor by TKO

and possibly Kos - 2U - This is a tough one because who knows if Kos will use his wrestling or not. He stood for a bit with AJ and that was scary, but used his wrestling / sub to win that fight. Daley has known for a while now that his glaring weakness has been TD defense and his ground game, but from what I understand he has worked extremely hard in the TD defense area. I still believe Kos could take him down, but Kos's cocky "I'm not scared to stand with you" mixed with his suspect chin and Daley's improved TD defense I will probably stay away.

[poopoo333]

Solid picks nuts. I was serious about the Goulet/Davis fight by the way ::cool:: , but I will probably not bet on it. I bet Davis is going to be a very steep favorite to be honest so I may stay away.

[poopoo333]

Ok I have been looking at Cote/Belcher. Cote's resume isn't too impressive leading up to the Silva fight. He beat Scott Smith (UFC reject), Jason Day (UFC reject), Kendall Grove (Has been close to being a UFC reject and he was hit flush with a very powerful right hand), Mcfedries (lost 5 of his last 8, and I think a UFC reject), and a very close split decision over Almeida in a pretty lackluster fight. He is coming off a very long layoff. He has had pretty severe injuries.

Belcher looks good on the feet but he gets stupid sometimes and ends up on his back (I don't think this will be a factor in the upcoming fight though) and gets into reckless brawls. His defense on the feet is kind of meh... He was tagged A LOT by Gouviea in the exchanges, and Kang was hitting him pretty well too on the feet. It showed his good chin, but I am pretty sure Cote has more power then Gouviea and Kang. But, I think Belcher should win this, especially given the circumstances of Cote's layoff.

Before I place my bet...do you guys think that Cote fighting in his hometown matters at all?

[SPX]

Before I place my bet...do you guys think that Cote fighting in his hometown matters at all?

Seems to me that hometown fighting can go either way. It can give a fighter mental strength, but it can also add a lot of pressure.

[Ludo]

Ok I have been looking at Cote/Belcher. Cote's resume isn't too impressive leading up to the Silva fight. He beat Scott Smith (UFC reject), Jason Day (UFC reject), Kendall Grove (Has been close to being a UFC reject and he was hit flush with a very powerful right hand), Mcfedries (lost 5 of his last 8, and I think a UFC reject), and a very close split decision over Almeida in a pretty lackluster fight. He is coming off a very long layoff. He has had pretty severe injuries.

Belcher looks good on the feet but he gets stupid sometimes and ends up on his back (I don't think this will be a factor in the upcoming fight though) and gets into reckless brawls. His defense on the feet is kind of meh... He was tagged A LOT by Gouviea in the exchanges, and Kang was hitting him pretty well too on the feet. It showed his good chin, but I am pretty sure Cote has more power then Gouviea and Kang. But, I think Belcher should win this, especially given the circumstances of Cote's layoff.

Before I place my bet...do you guys think that Cote fighting in his hometown matters at all?



Hometown COULD play a factor here. But I think Belchers wicked kicks are going to play a much bigger part. If I'm a kickboxer as proficient as Belcher I'm targeting that leg all night.

[poopoo333]

Before I place my bet...do you guys think that Cote fighting in his hometown matters at all?

Seems to me that hometown fighting can go either way. It can give a fighter mental strength, but it can also add a lot of pressure.

I am having a brain fart right now trying to think of fighters who fought in their hometown. I can only think back to UFC 102 right now... Couture/Leben both lost in Oregon. Franklin lost to Silva in his hometown (but that is Silva). That is all I can think of


Ludo:
"But I think Belchers wicked kicks are going to play a much bigger part. If I'm a kickboxer as proficient as Belcher I'm targeting that leg all night."

Very good point. I can't believe I didn't think of that.

[Ipickdeeznuts2win]

Ok I have been looking at Cote/Belcher. Cote's resume isn't too impressive leading up to the Silva fight. He beat Scott Smith (UFC reject), Jason Day (UFC reject), Kendall Grove (Has been close to being a UFC reject and he was hit flush with a very powerful right hand), Mcfedries (lost 5 of his last 8, and I think a UFC reject), and a very close split decision over Almeida in a pretty lackluster fight. He is coming off a very long layoff. He has had pretty severe injuries.

Belcher looks good on the feet but he gets stupid sometimes and ends up on his back (I don't think this will be a factor in the upcoming fight though) and gets into reckless brawls. His defense on the feet is kind of meh... He was tagged A LOT by Gouviea in the exchanges, and Kang was hitting him pretty well too on the feet. It showed his good chin, but I am pretty sure Cote has more power then Gouviea and Kang. But, I think Belcher should win this, especially given the circumstances of Cote's layoff.

Before I place my bet...do you guys think that Cote fighting in his hometown matters at all?


I have seen alot of Cote lately in the hype vids training and sparring with GSP if that makes any difference. His losses are mostly subs and wins by TKO/KO. Should be a close fight but I would def lean towards Belcher in this due to activity and opponents, but I wouldn't put any $$ on it

[poopoo333]

2u on Belcher @-120.

[SPX]

2u on Belcher @-120.

Belcher for the fucking win!

[Ludo]

Added a .6u to win 1u on Jeremy Stephens

[Mr. IWS]

I am having a brain fart right now trying to think of fighters who fought in their hometown.

I remember dropping 2 units on betting against George Sotroropoulous a few events back. He was in his home country, if that counts.

[MMA_scientist]

Jay, I like it all.

I am going Lawlor up to -350 for 5 or 6. Hendricks probably smaller like 3-4 up to -300. And I am still thinking about Koscheck, who I think wins 9/10 if he uses his wrestling. But I do think Kos can stand for a little while with Daley, so I will probably do it.

I do not have any confidence in Davis. Goulet is terrible, but every once and while, he all of the sudden looks like he can fight. Davis will probably KO him, but I am not betting it.

[Mr. IWS]

I think as of now, I will just be on Kos.

[poopoo333]

Jay, I like it all.

I am going Lawlor up to -350 for 5 or 6. Hendricks probably smaller like 3-4 up to -300. And I am still thinking about Koscheck, who I think wins 9/10 if he uses his wrestling. But I do think Kos can stand for a little while with Daley, so I will probably do it.

I do not have any confidence in Davis. Goulet is terrible, but every once and while, he all of the sudden looks like he can fight. Davis will probably KO him, but I am not betting it.

I don't think Hendricks will be -300. He will most likely be higher. A lot of people think he is going to win.

[MMA_scientist]

Jay, I like it all.

I am going Lawlor up to -350 for 5 or 6. Hendricks probably smaller like 3-4 up to -300. And I am still thinking about Koscheck, who I think wins 9/10 if he uses his wrestling. But I do think Kos can stand for a little while with Daley, so I will probably do it.

I do not have any confidence in Davis. Goulet is terrible, but every once and while, he all of the sudden looks like he can fight. Davis will probably KO him, but I am not betting it.

I don't think Hendricks will be -300. He will most likely be higher. A lot of people think he is going to win.

yeah it is probably wishful thinking. The cat is out of the bag on Hendricks. After this fight, he should get a step up in competition. I would love to see him fight Hardy or Daley coming off of their losses, he would beat either and would really help his hype train.

[MMA_scientist]

Creduer out of 113, replaced by Joe Doerkson. Sucks, I was going to go heavy on Lawlor against Credeur because I thought the odds would be decent and the matchup was great for Lawlor. Now the odds are going to be ridiculous and unbettable. I will take the filthy one up to my -400 cap though.

[Thewiseman]

Took two props that i feel hold value.
Belcher by decision .19u to win 1u
Rua by decision .16u to win 1u

Also took Koscheck 5u to win 2u

[Thewiseman]

I think even if Koscheck is an idiot and stands with Daley the whole fight, it could go either way. And I doubt he will do do that, so I give Kos a big edge in this fight.

[Thewiseman]

Fights im looking at when the odds come out are Yoshida, Hendricks, Lawlor, and possibly a big play on Marcus Davis.

[poopoo333]

Those are good prop bets wiseman. I hope Yoshida is undervalued because of his fights with Kos and AJ. He should submit Guymon. Guymon is also 35, and has a f*cked up personal life which probably plays a factor. Yoshida needs to cut to LW after this though.

[AC88]

Hendricks all the way. TJ has a bad time with better wrestlers i.e. his last loss. I'm also considering Mitrione over Kimbo too.

[poopoo333]

Plays so far:
1u on Shogun @+160
3u on Stout @-190
3u on Koscheck @-250
2u on Belcher @-120

I also know who I am going to bet on the undercard, but I have to wait for the lines.

[Thewiseman]

Plays so far:
1u on Shogun @+160
3u on Stout @-190
3u on Koscheck @-250
2u on Belcher @-120

I also know who I am going to bet on the undercard, but I have to wait for the lines.
Why so confident in Stout?

[poopoo333]

I think Stout will be able to out work Stephens on the feet, and avoid Stephens' only way of winning: a big punch. Stout showed improved TDD in the Lauzon fight as well.

[SPX]

I think Stout will be able to out work Stephens on the feet, and avoid Stephens' only way of winning: a big punch. Stout showed improved TDD in the Lauzon fight as well.

Stephens is no joke. Stout looked good against Lauzon, but he has overall been relatively average. In an even money fight, probably Stout, but I wouldn't take him at -190. In fact, I put 1u on Stephens at +167.

[Thewiseman]

I agree, even money I would take Stout, I think he is a little better technique wise, but Stephens has the power edge. No way I would bet Stout -190. Im not touching this fight unless Stephens hits at least +180

[Luke]

David Loiseau who replaced Nick Catone against John Salter is now out of UFC 113

[SPX]

David Loiseau who replaced Nick Catone against John Salter is now out of UFC 113

David Loiseau was supposed to replace Nick Catone?

[Luke]

David Loiseau who replaced Nick Catone against John Salter is now out of UFC 113

David Loiseau was supposed to replace Nick Catone?


Yeah but not anymore .The replacement needs replaced now lol

[SPX]

Yeah but not anymore .The replacement needs replaced now lol

What the fuck happened to Catone?

[Luke]

Yeah but not anymore .The replacement needs replaced now lol

What the fuck happened to Catone?


back injury

[zY|]

"If you look at the evolution of Josh Koscheck, I’ve changed and I’m excited about the transition I made and the sacrifices I made to get here. I can submit guys, I can knock guys out, I can head kick guys, and I’m not gonna have a problem standing toe-to-toe with Paul Daley. He’s not gonna hit me with anything I haven’t been hit with"

http://www.ufc.com/index.cfm?fa=news.detail&gid=80984

Yep, it's official. Koscheck is getting knocked out.

[Mr. IWS]

I really hope this idiot is just playing games.

[poopoo333]

Kos will win on the feet anyways, or at least hold his own at the very least. Kos will win this. I am a Daley fan, and not really a Kos fan just for the record. I am considering adding 2 more units on Kos to make it a 5u bet

[MMA_scientist]

I saw this before I made a 3u bet on Kos @ -271.

I think Koscheck is just talking. You don't become a great fighter by fighting to your opponent's strengths... which may explain why Koscheck has never had a title shot despite being near the top for several years.

I am going to be pissed if Koscheck stands with Daley... because I do think he can stand for a while, and has a chance of landing a KO blow himself, the odds are definately in Daley's favor in a striking match.

He has to know he is one win away from a title shot. I would think he would not roll the dice and have to start over again. Of course, he is obviously delusional.

[Luke]

Jason MacDonald will now fight John Salter replacing David Loiseau who replaced Nick Catone

[Mr. IWS]

David Loiseau who replaced Nick Catone against John Salter is now out of UFC 113


Jason MacDonald will now fight John Salter replacing David Loiseau who replaced Nick Catone


Pretty soon, Seth Petruzelli will get the call.

[SPX]

Jason MacDonald will now fight John Salter replacing David Loiseau who replaced Nick Catone

Damn, J-Mac getting the call back into the UFC. I wonder if this is just supposed to be a one-time thing.

[Luke]

Jason MacDonald will now fight John Salter replacing David Loiseau who replaced Nick Catone

Damn, J-Mac getting the call back into the UFC. I wonder if this is just supposed to be a one-time thing.


Probably has alot to due with whether he wins or not

[Luke]

David Loiseau who replaced Nick Catone against John Salter is now out of UFC 113


Jason MacDonald will now fight John Salter replacing David Loiseau who replaced Nick Catone


Pretty soon, Seth Petruzelli will get the call.


Probably there running out of people .I have a feeling Salter is behind this

[MMA_scientist]

My breakdown:

Short version:

3U on Koscheck @ -271
Possible bets: Salter at close to even, Hendricks under -300, Lawlor up to -350, Hague to -225. I might change my opinion on any of these, and I won't bet all of them.


Long version:


Matchups:
UFC Light Heavyweight Championship
Lyoto Machida (No. 1 LHW, No. 4 PFP) vs. Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (No. 2 LHW)

Everyone assumes that this fight will be close again. I am not so sure. If Bendo/Cerrone taught us anything, it is that rematches don't always even resemble the first fight. Machida is not error prone though, so I doubt he will be getting finished quickly. Shogun also is very tough to hurt. I am not betting the fight, I do think Machida can win by using his grappling more though. He has very good top control... I think he will use the same tactic though. No bet.


Josh Koscheck (No. 5 WW) vs. Paul Daley (No. 7 WW)

The onoy question about this fight is whether Koscheck is going to willingly stand with Daley. He does have the annoying habit of fighting to his opponent's strengths. But every time he has faced a dangerous striker, he has went to his bread and butter. He did stand with AJ for longer than I would have liked. Even though he was winning the striking exchanges, I don't like guys who stand and trade. One punch is all it takes. There is no risk at all on the ground. I feel Koscheck has the tools to win this 9/10 times. My only hesitation is that he stoof with Johnson for a couple of minutes, as if to prove a point. Guy, Paulo Thiago KO'd you... just take it down. 3u on Kos @ -271


Sam Stout vs. Jeremy Stephens

Power vs. technique. A lot of you guys are going with Stout here, and I think he will win. But I just hate fights where there is a very high probability of a KO. Stout has the footwork and jab to keep Stephens at bay, but 15 minutes is a long time to avoid getting hit. Stephens has big power. I can't recall anyone successfully standing with Stephens. The fight I can't seem to recall is the Spencer Fisher fight. All of Stephens losses have come against grapplers, except Fisher. If Fisher outboxed him, then I think Stout can do the same. Still no bet.


Kevin “Kimbo Slice” Ferguson vs. Matt Mitrione

Mitrione should win this if they stand and trade. Don't be shocked if Kimbo tries to take him down though. Mitrione is a lot bigger and from all appearances, he hits pretty hard. I can't believe I am saying this, but @ -115, I might bet on this fight. It goes against everything I believe, there is no way to know what will happen, but I think Mitrione should be a favorite here. Kimbo is only like 220. Mitrione is big and tall and has power. Somebody talk me out of this please, because I am seriously considering it- but I know it is dumb.

Patrick Cote vs. Alan Belcher

I can't call this one. A lot of guys are picking Belcher, mainly because Cote has been out. I think Cote's striking might be a little underrated. You can beat Cote by taking him down. Belcher has a varied attack and has length, but Cote has big power and rock chin. Has anyone ever hurt Cote standing? Anderson didn't. But Belcher has looked good in his last few outings. I am not sue here, I think this is very hard fight to predict. I think if I had to predict, I would take Cote.


Tom Lawlor vs. Joe Doerksen

Lawlor looked great in his loss to Aaron Simpson, and I was excited to put a lot on him against Creduer. Doerkson is a veteran who will put up a fight anywhere the fight goes. I don't know what the line will be, but I expect Lawlor to be heavily favored. Doerkson is not a pushover though. I want to bet on Lawlor, but it will depend on the line. 3-5u on Lawlor @ -350 or better

Marcus Davis vs. Jonathan Goulet

I just don't trust Davis. For whatever reason, I have never been sold on him. Goulet is probably the easiest man alive to knock out. He has literally the worst chin in the world. I expect the line to reflect the obvious, Davis by KO. That said, Goulet has shown some flashes... I think Davis will probably win easy, but unless he magically comes in under -200, I am not betting it.

Yoshiyuki Yoshida vs. Michael Guymon

This is a grappler/grappler matchup. Yoshida is best known for his spectacular KO losses to Koscheck and AJ. Guymon was on a 5 fight win streak before losing to Rory McDonald a few months ago. Yoshida should be the favorite here, but I think it is competitive. Guymon has some personal problems, but he has beaten some very tough guys. Either guys could have value as a dog. My head says Yoshida, but my gut says Guymon.

Joey Beltran vs. Tim Hague

I think Hague will take this by size and technical superiority. Beltran ruined my month by "beating" Rolles Gracie (I don't know that Beltran beat Gracie as much as Gracie quit). I still maintain my assessment of Beltran, and I would still bet on Rolles to beat him in a rematch. I see him as a sloppy brawler. Rolles was actually getting the better of the striking against him until he spontaneously collapsed. The only hesitation is that sloppy brawling might work against Hague. He was KO'd in 7 seconds by a wild haymaker (from roid monster Todd Duffee who I rolled with a few years back and he was about my size 200# max, fyi. Did not even resemble the WWE look alike you see today). Brawling kind of works for heavyweights. So there is some risk there. This on is line dependent. I will take Hague -225 or better.

Johny Hendricks vs. T.J. Grant

TJ Grant is a submission machine. If you look at his record, all he does is sub everyone he fights. He is a bjj borwn belt and a Provincial champion wrestler in Canada. His standup is decent. He is a good fighter, all around. Taking down Hendricks is going to be difficult. Hendricks is the new Dan Henderson, with submissions. This is a very very tough fight for Hendricks.

Originally, I was all over Hendricks in this one, but after watch Grant fight, it is closer than you might think. I think Hendricks will be the better wrestler, but Grant has a dangerous guard. I think Hendricks will have the better striking, but he has been suceptible to knees, and Grant has a pretty stong MT plumb. He has finished at least one fight from knees.

I am still probably going to be on Hendricks, but not up to -400. Probably to -300.


Jason McDonald vs. John Salter

This should be a good fight, both very solid grapplers, but Salter has the wrestling background to go along with his jiu jitsu, being an NAIA champion. I think he will win a top control decision. Salter has better pure grappling credentials, but Jmac has made it work in MMA. JMac impressed me by surviving with Maia on teh ground for like 6 minutes. I might take Salter based on the favorable matchup if the line is close, which I think it will be.

[Mr. IWS]

Good shit scientist. Im with you on Kos.

[zY|]

Good reading on the shitter. Thanks Scientist.

[Svino]

At the time, I thought the odds for Shogun and Machida's first fight were just about right. I thought:

1) Shogun wouldn't be able to take Machida down.
2) Shogun wouldn't be able to finish Machida standing up.
3) Shogun had weak cardio. (combining with #1 and #2 to give him very little chance)
4) Shogun was the type of aggressive fighter who might fall into Machida's counter-trap and get picked apart.

I might have been right about 1 and 2, but Shogun gave us a great demonstration of a dedicated athlete's ability to fix their cardio, and most importantly showed that he could follow a patient gameplan that kept him exactly away from Machida's strengths while picking at his weaknesses. Like many observers, I thought he won that first fight 3 rounds to 2.


Listening to people's thoughts about the rematch, there seem to be two major schools of thought:

1) Shogun did well in the first fight by coming out with a strategy Machida didn't expect, but he's lost his chance. Machida is an elite striker, and now that he has had time to develop a counter to the leg-kick plan, Shogun's only little window to victory will be closed.

2) There's no real reason to expect the next fight to be anything other than a replay of the first fight, with Shogun being a slight favorite to win it, as he did before. The fact is, Machida only does one thing. He may do it very very well, but it has a weakness, and Shogun found it and used it. There's no proof that Machida can cover that weakness while still retaining what made him an effective fighter. In fact, he probably can't.

I could imagine either being right, but of the two, I think the second is probably much closer to the truth, which is why I will be on Shogun for this fight. Ignore what Rua is saying in the press about brand new strategies - it's just talk. He has shown he has the patience and skill to beat Machida on the feet, and I don't see the fight spending much time on the ground. I don't think Machida was being lazy or unskilled in his susceptibility to Shogun's leg kicks, I think it is just a fundamental weakness in his fight strategy - the only strategy he has ever been effective at using. I'm very skeptical that Machida has much flexibility in his gameplan. If he did, he probably would have done something more aggressive in the final rounds of their last fight, where any reasonable corner team would have told him he was behind.

[SPX]

The fact is, Machida only does one thing.

I disagree with this. I'm sure you probably mean it in the sense that his striking style is very specific and that's what he relies on, but you can't say that anyone who has good striking AND good wrestling and submission skills "only does one thing." Look at Sokoudjou. He's well aware of Machida's ability to go anywhere with the fight.

Fighters who only do one thing, in my mind, are guys like Yvel, Volkmann, McFedries, etc.

[Svino]

Yeah. What I really meant was: he only goes into a fight with one gameplan.

[MMA_scientist]

Good stuff Svino... I am part of the theory #1 crowd. I don't see how Shogun is going to beat him again. I think Machida has better secondary skills as well, so if the fight looks entirely different (say a grappling match) I like Machida there as well.

Shogun basically has leg kick him for 5 rounds and avoid being countered again. It is certainly possible, but I think the likelyhood is less than 50%.

I agree that Shogun has shown he can stand with Machida though. I agree that Machida cannot effectively change his striking style at this point. But it is not like Shogun was just lighting him up... he lost 2-3 rounds.

In a pure standup fight again, either Machida is going to figure out what he did to win his rounds and duplicate it 5 times, or Shogun is going to figure out how to duplicate his success in every round. Since I think much of Shogun's success was based on fatigue, I think Machida will come out and strike until he gets tired, then try to grapple in the later rounds. Just one man's theory.

No way I am betting this fight though. It is impossible to predict a consistent winner.

[zY|]

^^What makes you think Machida can outgrapple Shogun? I know Machida is very underrated on the mat, but that's where Shogun does his best work. He's billed as a striker, incorrectly imo, because the guy is just brilliant on the ground.

[poopoo333]

Shogun via leg lock.

[MMA_scientist]

^^
Machida has a grappling win over world calibur Rafael Lovato Jr. Beating Lovato is like the equivalent of beating Maia in bjj. Its not Roger or Jacare, but its pretty damn close. Lovato is widely regarded as having the best guard in the world.

But it is more that I think the Machida has better takedowns and takedown defense, he has also show good top control. So I think he can get on top and stay there. Shogun is a good grappler too, but Machida has shown the ability in MMA and bjj to dominate positions and avoid the sub (and in MMA in America- incorrectly IMO- if you are on top, you are winning) My feeling is that if Machida can avoid being swept of subbed by Lovata, Shogun doesn't have anything for him.

Here's the match: http://www.mixedmartialarts.com/mma.cfm?go=video.detail&gid=149392

[Mr. IWS]

Shogun via leg lock.

::winna::

[poopoo333]

Shogun via leg lock.

::winna::

If this happens, everyone needs to paypal me $5.

[zY|]

^^
Machida has a grappling win over world calibur Rafael Lovato Jr. Beating Lovato is like the equivalent of beating Maia in bjj. Its not Roger or Jacare, but its pretty damn close. Lovato is widely regarded as having the best guard in the world.

But it is more that I think the Machida has better takedowns and takedown defense, he has also show good top control. So I think he can get on top and stay there. Shogun is a good grappler too, but Machida has shown the ability in MMA and bjj to dominate positions and avoid the sub (and in MMA in America- incorrectly IMO- if you are on top, you are winning) My feeling is that if Machida can avoid being swept of subbed by Lovata, Shogun doesn't have anything for him.

Here's the match: http://www.mixedmartialarts.com/mma.cfm?go=video.detail&gid=149392

Yeah I've seen it. It's very impressive, that's why I said he's a very underrated grappler. But this is MMA. Lovato was trying to sweep the whole time. Not get up and punch a hole in his head like Shogun will. Arona couldn't hold him down, neither could Rogerio. I just think Shogun is too fluid to be held down long by Machida. And Machida most certainly doesn't want to be on the bottom with Shogun on top. Shogun on top is bad news.

I agree that Machida has better takedowns and his takedown defense is phenomenal. He was the first fighter Shogun has ever fought that he failed to take down. It may not even hit the ground unless Machida wants it to. I just don't think he wants any of Shogun on the ground, as evidenced by the first fight.

That said, I really don't have a prediction in this fight. It's really just guesswork. It comes down to intangibles such as who has adapted their game up the best and who executes their gameplan.

[Thewiseman]

im on Shogun, .6u to win 1u, also, 2u @+180 that it goes the distance.

[Svino]

No way I am betting this fight though. It is impossible to predict a consistent winner.

A consistent winner? Probably not. But I'm plenty happy to take a coin-toss on a +160 guy.

[Ludo]

No way I am betting this fight though. It is impossible to predict a consistent winner.

A consistent winner? Probably not. But I'm plenty happy to take a coin-toss on a +160 guy.

My thoughts exactly, Svino. Shogun coming in as a dog the second time around has me all over him at +160.

[poopoo333]

adding 2 more units on Kos. 3u @-250, 2u @-240

[poopoo333]

"So if you’re a betting man, you better go to Vegas right now, and put money on Josh Koscheck because now that the guy has pissed me off, I can guarantee you that I’m gonna go in there and wrestle his ass down and rear naked choke him in round one. There you have it. I’ll probably beat him up a little bit before I choke him out, but in round one, he’s getting choked out. And that’s what he’s gonna have to sleep with over the next week – ‘How the hell am I gonna stop from getting taken down and put on my ass?’"

[poopoo333]

Line predictions on Yoshida/Guymon and Hague/Beltran?

[MMA_scientist]

Line predictions on Yoshida/Guymon and Hague/Beltran?

Yoshida -170 Guymon +120

Hague -200 Beltran +150

[SPX]

You know, with all these lines for other events going up you'd think they could get us the undercard lines for 113. . .

We're less than a week away, after all.

[Mr. IWS]

Hague -200 Beltran +150

I would probably get on Hague at that number.

[poopoo333]

Undercard lines are out. I really wish I had bookmaker. ugh

Hague's line is a gift right now.

[MMA_scientist]

Thanks for the heads up:

5u on Hendricks @ -350
4u on Hague @ -190
1u on Salter @ +160

[Thewiseman]

1.7u on Hague, and I really dont feel good about it. I dont like the odds on the rest. May do a parlay or two.

[poopoo333]

5dimes better get these damn odds soon! I want to get Hague, Lawlor, Yoshida, and Hendricks at reasonable prices.

[MMA_scientist]

1.7u on Hague, and I really dont feel good about it. I dont like the odds on the rest. May do a parlay or two.

Why? Hague should win easy IMO.

[Mr. IWS]

Ill probably be on Hague too.

[poopoo333]

Thanks for the heads up:

5u on Hendricks @ -350
4u on Hague @ -190
1u on Salter @ +160

Besides Salter, I think you are going to have a good night. (I say besides Salter because I don't know much about him)

[MMA_scientist]

Thanks for the heads up:

5u on Hendricks @ -350
4u on Hague @ -190
1u on Salter @ +160

Besides Salter, I think you are going to have a good night. (I say besides Salter because I don't know much about him)

Salter is a decorated submission grappler and a NAIA champion wrestler. This fight is going to be a grappling match. Although McDonald is probably better, based on his MMA grappling prowess, I don't think he is miles ahead of Salter who has won NAGA multiple times. Throw in the takedown advantage for Salter, and I think we have a favorable style matchup for Salter.

I wouldn't be suprised at all of Salter turns out to be the better grappler. And I really wouldn't be surprised to see Salter win a top control decision. Either way, I think it will be competitive.

[MMA_scientist]

I am actually most worried about the Hendricks bet. TJ Grant has very good submissions. And he has very good knees. I am worried that Hendricks will get caught with a knee coming in on his shot and then get subbed.

[poopoo333]

I am actually most worried about the Hendricks bet. TJ Grant has very good submissions. And he has very good knees. I am worried that Hendricks will get caught with a knee coming in on his shot and then get subbed.

Hmm. I think you are just worrying more because it is your largest bet.

[MMA_scientist]

Hmm. I think you are just worrying more because it is your largest bet.


There is probably some added stress because I am a fan of Hendricks, so I want him to win even if I had no bet. But I really don't think it is a great match up for Hendricks. Grant is good, and Hendricks is still green.


I am now also worried about Hague. Hague should win via size. But I could also see him gassing if he engages in a gunslinging contest with Beltran. Beltran does have wile strikes but he has power. Hague has been KO'd before with a wild power shot. In retrospect, this probably should have been smaller. But I got excited because I expected him to come in a little higher.

[ManBoobKilla]

Hmm. I think you are just worrying more because it is your largest bet.


There is probably some added stress because I am a fan of Hendricks, so I want him to win even if I had no bet. But I really don't think it is a great match up for Hendricks. Grant is good, and Hendricks is still green.


I am now also worried about Hague. Hague should win via size. But I could also see him gassing if he engages in a gunslinging contest with Beltran. Beltran does have wile strikes but he has power. Hague has been KO'd before with a wild power shot. In retrospect, this probably should have been smaller. But I got excited because I expected him to come in a little higher.


I wouldnt worry about hague gassing. zi think Beltran will gas before hague does. Remember Beltrans last fight??? He gasses in the very first round against Rolles. In the second round he acted like he had been in a five round war.

[SPX]

I am not liking ANY of these undercard lines.

All that waiting for nothing, in my opinion.

[MMA_scientist]

I wouldnt worry about hague gassing. zi think Beltran will gas before hague does. Remember Beltrans last fight??? He gasses in the very first round against Rolles. In the second round he acted like he had been in a five round war.

True. In support of Hague, he has avenged his only non-UFC loss. He got robbed against Tucherer. His only legit loss is the Dufee fight, which was flukey. He survived on his feet with Barry (barely), so Beltran shouldn't have anything for him. Beltran could be a 205, Hague is massive HW.

There. I feel better.

[ManBoobKilla]

I wouldnt worry about hague gassing. zi think Beltran will gas before hague does. Remember Beltrans last fight??? He gasses in the very first round against Rolles. In the second round he acted like he had been in a five round war.

True. In support of Hague, he has avenged his only non-UFC loss. He got robbed against Tucherer. His only legit loss is the Dufee fight, which was flukey. He survived on his feet with Barry (barely), so Beltran shouldn't have anything for him. Beltran could be a 205, Hague is massive HW.

There. I feel better.


Plus his nickname is the mexicutioner!!! You cant let a guy with that horrible nickname beat you

[Mr. IWS]

Plus his nickname is the mexicutioner!!! You cant let a guy with that horrible nickname beat you

He already beat us once. :burn:

[SPX]

He already beat us once. :burn:

MBK is much too new around here to remember that fiasco. . .

[ManBoobKilla]

Plus his nickname is the mexicutioner!!! You cant let a guy with that horrible nickname beat you

He already beat us once. :burn:



True but it was a horrible performance. Hague shouldnt have any problem with him. Although that is what I thought about Marquardt vs Sonnen and Penn vs Edgar

[ManBoobKilla]

O my bad I thought you were talking about the Rolles gracie fight that Beltran was suppose to lose

[zY|]

O my bad I thought you were talking about the Rolles gracie fight that Beltran was suppose to lose

He was.

[ManBoobKilla]

O my bad I thought you were talking about the Rolles gracie fight that Beltran was suppose to lose

He was.


O. Im not a new mma fan, just new to this forum and betting. Ufc 113 will be the first event im betting on. When you guys say unit, how much is that?? $5, $10, $100???

[SPX]

O. Im not a new mma fan, just new to this forum and betting.


I was referring to you being around for the shit storm that went down after that fight and half the forum lost their asses on Gracie.


When you guys say unit, how much is that?? $5, $10, $100???

It's different for different bettors. For me, it's $20. But for some guys here it's more like $100. Only you can determine what your personal unit is.

[zY|]

^^Unless you're weird like Luke or Zak, I still have no idea what their unit means.

[ManBoobKilla]

O. Im not a new mma fan, just new to this forum and betting.


I was referring to you being around for the shit storm that went down after that fight and half the forum lost their asses on Gracie.


When you guys say unit, how much is that?? $5, $10, $100???

It's different for different bettors. For me, it's $20. But for some guys here it's more like $100. Only you can determine what your personal unit is.


O gotcha, so a unit is just whatever you say it is basically huh. Thank you. in that case I put 1unit on Mitrione @-115 and 1unit on a parlay of Belcher, Stout, Kos, Mitrione to win 6units. Going to make another parlay when Betus gets the undercard odds out

[SPX]

^^Unless you're weird like Luke or Zak, I still have no idea what their unit means.

Yeah, they got that weird voodoo shit going on.

I think Luke has been trying to act like a normal person to an extent lately though. . .

[SPX]

O gotcha, so a unit is just whatever you say it is basically huh. Thank you. in that case I put 1unit on Mitrione @-115 and 1unit on a parlay of Belcher, Stout, Kos, Mitrione to win 6units. Going to make another parlay when Betus gets the undercard odds out

Yeah, a "unit" is basically just your base bet. You want it to be sized properly according to your total bankroll. I'd suggest that your unit be no more than 1/50th of your bankroll. Some others suggest that it be as much as 1/100th.

Personally, I'm playing with a total of about $1000 right now so I use a $20 unit.

[zY|]

^^Unless you're weird like Luke or Zak, I still have no idea what their unit means.

Yeah, they got that weird voodoo shit going on.

I think Luke has been trying to act like a normal person to an extent lately though. . .

He's been caught up being Twitter journalist.

[ManBoobKilla]

So the lines for betus came up and I have .5 unit left to bet. I really want to bet on tj grant because he is at +350. what do you guys think? I didnt seem like anyone here was going for him or even giving him a chance but I could definatly see him winning

[Mr. IWS]

My unit is 12 inches.....................around.

[Luke]

My unit is 12 inches.....................around.



::lmao:: Thats what I was going to say

[Luke]

^^Unless you're weird like Luke or Zak, I still have no idea what their unit means.


Jesus ::doh:: I've explained to you guys 10 times know ,heck I even completely spell my bets out now.


I dont know what you guys dont understand .My last two bets have been Ben Henderson +115 and Mayweather -300

I completely spelled out I had 2 units on Henderson 2 units to win 2.3 and had to win 3 units on Mayweather 9 units to win 3


Favorite -200 .1 unit means 200 to win 100

Dog +200 .1 units means 100 to win 200



I forget you guys come from MMAjunkie and sherdog ,never mind I understand now ::handshake::

[Luke]

O my bad I thought you were talking about the Rolles gracie fight that Beltran was suppose to lose

He was.


O. Im not a new mma fan, just new to this forum and betting. Ufc 113 will be the first event im betting on. When you guys say unit, how much is that?? $5, $10, $100???


A "unit" is what you bet on a normal fight .Say you normal sized bet is 100 and you bet that most of the time unless you really like a fight.If you really like a fight you might bet 200 which would be a 2 unit bet.
Now not everyone bets 100 on normal bets ,some people bet 20 or 50 or 500 thats why everyones "unit" is a different size.When we talk in units its just to describe how much we like the fight ::handshake::

[SPX]

I forget you guys come from MMAjunkie and sherdog ,never mind I understand now ::handshake::

We know, Luke. We know.

It's always SOMEONE ELSE with the problem.

[Luke]

I forget you guys come from MMAjunkie and sherdog ,never mind I understand now ::handshake::

We know, Luke. We know.

It's always SOMEONE ELSE with the problem.


Me and Zak were the first ones here.We both bet the exact same.We both understand each other fine .You guys are the ones that bet different not us ::handshake::

[poopoo333]

Luke and Zak don't have a confusing system...they bet to win in $100 increments! i think

[Luke]

Luke and Zak don't have a confusing system...they bet to win in $100 increments! i think


I've always bet this way and so have all my friends but I guess they have always bet the way they have.

[ManBoobKilla]

So do you guys think that Grant is a good play at +350 Cause I am smelling an upset here possibly

[SPX]

I've always bet this way and so have all my friends but I guess they have always bet the way they have.

What about your friends who don't have the money two bet to win $100? I mean, how would they explain it?

[SPX]

Me and Zak were the first ones here.We both bet the exact same.We both understand each other fine .You guys are the ones that bet different not us ::handshake::

I'm just fucking with you, so don't get worked up.

[Luke]

I've always bet this way and so have all my friends but I guess they have always bet the way they have.

What about your friends who don't have the money two bet to win $100? I mean, how would they explain it?



Then bet to win 10 bucks or 20.

A unit can be anything ,it can be a dollar its just whatever is your normal sized bet is ::handshake::

[MMA_scientist]

So do you guys think that Grant is a good play at +350 Cause I am smelling an upset here possibly

Unfortunately I do think Grant is a live dog. He has wicked submissions and more than likely Hendricks will want to grapple at some point. I would give a striking edge to Hendricks though, just due to power and the fact that he has not beed rocked yet. But Grant has some pretty solid knees and has at least one finish from knees in the MT plumb. I could see Hendricks clinching and dropping for a shot and getting kneed to death.

That said, I am on Hendricks. You will rue the day you cross me. Rue the day.

Why don't you bet Curran? He is +500 and has as much a chance as Grant, IMO. Salter is exremely live, IMO, but he is only a small dog.

[ManBoobKilla]

So do you guys think that Grant is a good play at +350 Cause I am smelling an upset here possibly

Unfortunately I do think Grant is a live dog. He has wicked submissions and more than likely Hendricks will want to grapple at some point. I would give a striking edge to Hendricks though, just due to power and the fact that he has not beed rocked yet. But Grant has some pretty solid knees and has at least one finish from knees in the MT plumb. I could see Hendricks clinching and dropping for a shot and getting kneed to death.

That said, I am on Hendricks. You will rue the day you cross me. Rue the day.

Why don't you bet Curran? He is +500 and has as much a chance as Grant, IMO. Salter is exremely live, IMO, but he is only a small dog.

My thoughts exactly. I was thinkning about curran but I was leaning toward Grant more. thanks

[MMA_scientist]

For the record, a unit = pre defined percentage of your bankroll. For me 1unit = 2% of my total bankroll. So I have a 50u bankroll, back down from 100u. I felt I was being too conservative with my 100u bankroll and I had to cash out to buy some crap.

[SPX]

You will rue the day you cross me. Rue the day.


LOL

[SPX]

So I have a 50u bankroll, back down from 100u. I felt I was being too conservative with my 100u bankroll and I had to cash out to buy some crap.

That's news.

Makes your 5u bets a lot more interesting to the observer.

[MMA_scientist]

So I have a 50u bankroll, back down from 100u. I felt I was being too conservative with my 100u bankroll and I had to cash out to buy some crap.

That's news.

Makes your 5u bets a lot more interesting to the observer.


I actually did it several months ago. I just felt that I was leaving money on the table with my conservatively sized bets. I believe in my system. I think if I focus on it, I can pick 80-90% winners. My problem is that I just get wild and start making bets that don't fit my criteria. I think 50u is enough to protect my bankroll if I am smart.

So the solution is to research and win more, rather than make more bets. Of course, I haven't been doing it lately. This board is making me looser.

In the old days, I probably would not have bet any fight on this card (I would have bet Lawlor/Creduer as that fit my criteria to a T). You can still find value in the favorites, but you have to be selective. I keep saying I am going to go back to that, but I haven't been doing it.

But, truth be told, I cashed out for a down payment on a plot of land. So I may just be justifying it now. I did not want to cut my bankroll in half, so now I am back in the building rapidly phase. I am also dumping money back in, and should be back to where I was in a few months.

[MMA_scientist]

So I have a 50u bankroll, back down from 100u. I felt I was being too conservative with my 100u bankroll and I had to cash out to buy some crap.

That's news.

Makes your 5u bets a lot more interesting to the observer.


I looked back and I have never taken a 20% dip. I have my losses like everyone, but February 2010 was my very worst hit ever. But I was back to where I was before that by April. I just don't need 100units.

[Luke]

This board is making me looser


How so?

I find that interesting because this board makes me bet way tighter and keeps my head on straight for the most part.If I wasnt posting on a forum no one would know what I'm betting and I really wouldnt care as much if I were losing money because no would know.Since I post all my plays on here and people know if I'm up or down money it keeps me from doing stupid things(most of the time)

It really keeps me serious on my boxing bets more than MMA

[Luke]

I looked back and I have never taken a 20% dip. I have my losses like everyone, but February 2010 was my very worst hit ever. But I was back to where I was before that by April. I just don't need 100units.

100% agree .No one needs a 100 unit bankroll if you're winning more than losing

[SPX]

Interesting, Scientist.

You say you've never been 20% down. At 5u with a 50u bankroll, wouldn't that mean you'd only have to lose two of your 5u bets in a row to be that far down?

If it works for you, then praise be to Allah. But that's too much risk for me. I personally am working with what amounts to about a 50u bankroll and 5u bets are very rare for me. My recent bet on Mayweather was the first in a while.

[SPX]

100% agree .No one needs a 100 unit bankroll if you're winning more than losing

I think 100u is just to make people feel comfortable and safe. If you find yourself in a situation where you really NEED a 100u bankroll because of the hits you've taken then it's probably more than just negative variance.

Personally, the farthest I've ever been down is about 7 or 8 units.

[MMA_scientist]

This board is making me looser


How so?


I think because I talk about all the fights more and see other points of view and it makes me think guys can win that I previously did not think could win.

For example, I would never have bet Hague/Beltran before. I don't know where the fight will happen, I don't know what the battle will be. In my system I am only supposed to be betting on fights where I know exactly what the battle will be, and who has the advantage in that area. I still get it wrong sometimes, but it does help me stay on the straight and narrow.

For example, Maia/Silva. I knew what the fight was about: Maia's takedowns against Silva's takedown defense and striking. It turns out I was wrong, because I thought Maia would be able to take him down. But that is the kind of fight I like. Either that or one guy is better at everything, like Struve/Nelson.

[MMA_scientist]

Interesting, Scientist.

You say you've never been 20% down. At 5u with a 50u bankroll, wouldn't that mean you'd only have to lose two of your 5u bets in a row to be that far down?

If it works for you, then praise be to Allah. But that's too much risk for me. I personally am working with what amounts to about a 50u bankroll and 5u bets are very rare for me. My recent bet on Mayweather was the first in a while.

Correct, it has never happened. The closest I have come is when I lost 11u on Gracie and Marquart at UFC 109. But then I won with Maia and Danzig. Then I lost on Stevenson, but ended up turning a profit for 110. That was the most 5u bets I have lost in close proximity. I have never lost back to back 5u bets with no wins in between. And even if I did, I wouldnt be that concerned.

The 100u was just to make me feel safe, like you say. But I don't need it. I would rather have growth at this point. I might go to like 70u after I double up my stake this year.

[Svino]

This board is making me looser


How so?

I find that interesting because this board makes me bet way tighter and keeps my head on straight for the most part... Since I post all my plays on here and people know if I'm up or down money it keeps me from doing stupid things(most of the time)

I'm more like MMA_scientist here. Everyone is different, and I think you've given a common reason why some people might be made more conservative by a forum. However, I think there is a general tendency for people to be more aggressive with risk after a group discussion. In the social psychology literature, this phenomenon is called "risky shift", and I have seen papers relating it to betting discussions going back to the 60's: http://tinyurl.com/2uzbtvn

A big reason for this is probably that discussions among people, especially friends, tend to be consensus-building. You know how a bunch of friends might discuss a movie after seeing it and end up basically deciding as a group whether they like it or not? Well the same thing can happen with deciding who will win a fight. And when that happens, each bettor will be more likely to place a bet because the decision has the weight of consensus behind it, and doesn't feel like just their own random hunch.

[What really freaked people out was when they thought about how this phenomenon might relate to making group decisions about going to war, or launching nukes.]

[Mr. IWS]

I read an awesome tutorial on betting on MMA. Some guy named Cockerhole or something wrote it. Im sure one of us could get it posted here. ; )

I dont even have a bank roll per se, unless you count my bank account. I just bet to win 100 on my bets.

[SPX]

I read an awesome tutorial on betting on MMA. Some guy named Cockerhole or something wrote it. Im sure one of us could get it posted here. ; )


Dude, I read that one, too!

You're right. It was INCREDIBLE!

[SPX]

[What really freaked people out was when they thought about how this phenomenon might relate to making group decisions about going to war, or launching nukes.]

LOL. Pretty interesting stuff, Svino.

What do you do for a living, by the way? Do you work in academia?

[MMA_scientist]

Svino,

I do not recall sending out the nerd signal...

That is really what I was trying to say. Everyone agrees that a fighter is better, and even though I don't know how or why, I join in. I have the ability to ignore the mob mentality in the bigger boards, like the HW on SD. Actually, its the opposite there... when everyone on SD is saying X will win, it is usually a good indicator that he is overvalued. I am contrarian to the HWs. But for whatever reason, I go along with you turds here.

The funny thing is that I realized I had an edge in this thing when I started capping myself, with no help. I like to have a small group of guys to keep me in line though and bounce my thoughts off of. I usually ignore the input, but it helps me flush out my thoughts.

[SPX]

That is really what I was trying to say. Everyone agrees that a fighter is better, and even though I don't know how or why, I join in.


I do that from time to time. I remember doing it for Soko against Minowa. Everyone was so sure Soko would win. I didn't know shit about Minowa, but I figured what the hell.

It's burned me a few times though, so other people can push me over the edge if I'm already leaning that way, but if it's a fight that I haven't really done any research on (like Hague/Beltran) then I stay away.

[MMA_scientist]

That is really what I was trying to say. Everyone agrees that a fighter is better, and even though I don't know how or why, I join in.


I do that from time to time. I remember doing it for Soko against Minowa. Everyone was so sure Soko would win. I didn't know shit about Minowa, but I figured what the hell.

It's burned me a few times though, so other people can push me over the edge if I'm already leaning that way, but if it's a fight that I haven't really done any research on (like Hague/Beltran) then I stay away.

I still think Soko/Minowa was fixed. Minowa literally had no way to win that fight. If the Sok that fought Mousasi would have shown up, Minowa would have been laid out in the first round.

I did my homework on Beltran/Hague, but I probably would not have bet it without the confidence of the board.

[SPX]

If the Sok that fought Mousasi would have shown up, Minowa would have been laid out in the first round.


I wish the Mousasi that showed up to fight Soko had showed up to fight Mo.

[zY|]

[quote="MMA_scientist":2slldvgq]
That is really what I was trying to say. Everyone agrees that a fighter is better, and even though I don't know how or why, I join in.


I do that from time to time. I remember doing it for Soko against Minowa. Everyone was so sure Soko would win. I didn't know shit about Minowa, but I figured what the hell.

It's burned me a few times though, so other people can push me over the edge if I'm already leaning that way, but if it's a fight that I haven't really done any research on (like Hague/Beltran) then I stay away.

I still think Soko/Minowa was fixed. Minowa literally had no way to win that fight. If the Sok that fought Mousasi would have shown up, Minowa would have been laid out in the first round.
[/quote:2slldvgq]

Oh cmon. You can't cite Ockham's Razor in one thread, then come right over here and post this. I agree Soko should've won that fight easily too, but what is Soko's MO? He's aggressive and dangerous for about 6 minutes. Then he's done. He nearly pounded out Minowa a few times in the first round, but he couldn't get it finished. He was also extremely tentative of getting leglocked. Then per the usual, midpoint of round 2 he just folds up shop.

[MMA_scientist]

I suppose Sapp just couldn't stop Minowa from folding him in 2 either. I will never bet on Japanese MMA again. I think 30% of it is fixed.

I agree that Sok just folded, per his usual. But I think the ref was in on it. The ref stopped it way early. Sok put 2x the beating on Minowa in the first round, and the ref didn't stop it. Then as soon as Minowa gets an advatage, the ref jumps in. Crooked Japanese pro wrestling refs.

[zY|]

I'll definitely concede that the ref could be in on it. The stoppage sucked.

[poopoo333]

The odds came out on 5dimes for the undercard, and they suck. So I did a parlay with the 3 bets I was going to make if the odds were right:

2u on Hendrick, Yoshida, and Lawlor @-103


Waiting for Hague to get to -225 (wishful thinking)


Can you deposit into bookmaker using western union like 5dimes? I am thinking of withdrawing from 5dimes and switching to bookmaker.

[SPX]

Can you deposit into bookmaker using western union like 5dimes? I am thinking of withdrawing from 5dimes and switching to bookmaker.

I think all books allow deposits via Western Union. Bookmaker also takes credit/debit cards, which is what I use.

Why withdraw and switch? I would just open an account with Bookmaker. 5dimes is a pretty useful book.

[MMA_scientist]

Yeah, you should hang on to 5dimes, which is the 2nd best book, IMO. No parlays on Bookmaker, so you need the 5dimes if you want to parlay.

Bookmaker does allow western union, but it takes a day or so to get the money in there.

[ManBoobKilla]

My final bets for ufc 113.......

Lawler, Davis, Hague Parlay. 4 units to win 3.5 units
Mitrione, Belcher, Stout, Kos parlay. .5 units to win 3 units
Mitrione. .5 unit to win .5 unit
Tj Grant. .5 unit to win 1.75 units
Daley and Shogun .5 unit to win 3.5 (I made this bet a long long time ago when Kos was saying he was going to stand and KO Daley. Wish I could take it back)

[Thewiseman]

So far i have,
Hague 1.7u to win 1u
Belcher/Cote over 1.5 rds 1.57u to win 1u
Belcher by decision .19u to win 1u
Koscheck 9.9u to win 4u
Rua .6u to win 1u
Rua/Machida goes distance 2u to win 3.6u
Rua/Machida starts rd 3 9u to win 4u
Rua by dec .16u to win 1u

Parlay
Gouveia
Leites
Marcus Davis
Yoshida
.6u to win 1.1u

Marcus Davis
Hendricks
Yoshida
Lawlor
1.5u to win 2u

So basically im Screwed if Machida/Rua ends in the 1st two rounds.

[poopoo333]

0.5u on Kimbo to win via submission @+2200

[Ludo]

Final Plays:

.5u to win 2u on Doerksen
.6u to win 1u on Stephens
.5u to win 1.1u on Daley
2.6u to win 1u on Hague
2u to win 1.6u on Belcher
2u to win 3.2u on Shogun
.7u to win 1u parlay on Belcher, Lawlor, and Davis
1u to win 3.8u parlay on Koscheck, Mitrione, and Belcher

[Luke]

I'm not sure I'm betting anything on this card

[MMA_scientist]

My final plays:

3u on Koscheck @ -271
5u on Hendricks @ -350
4u on Hague @ -190
1u on Salter @ +160

[poopoo333]

Final Plays:
1u on Shogun @+160
5u on Koscheck (3u@-250, 2u@-245)
3u on Stout @-190
2u on Belcher @-120
3u on Hague @-250
2u on Hendricks, Yoshida, and Lawlor @-103
0.5u on Kimbo via submission @+2200

[Mr. IWS]

Ill be on Kos and Hague, thats about it for me. Each for 1 unit.

[Mr. IWS]

Leaning towards Machida and Mitrione as well.

[Ludo]

Mitrione I am hoping will get a line closer to right after he opened. At one point he was a +125 and I waited thinking people would be all over Kimbo's nuts and drive the line up to about +145-150 and I'd take him then. Instead he plummeted to -115 which kind of blows. I hope he's a dog again come fight night, I'll add a unit on him if he is.

[SPX]

^^^ He actually opened at +160. That was the time to jump!

[Ludo]

I never saw it that high, unfortunately. I would have jumped on it for 3u if I had. He's about an 80% lock to win this fight in My mind. His chin is good enough to stay out of alot of trouble, his bottom game on the ground kind of sucks but it kept Big Baby from locking up a sub so it's at least average, and average would be good enough to neutralize Kimbo. Kimbo's only hope here would be a slugfest. A slugfest always favors the bigger fighter.

[SPX]

I took Mitrione for .5u at +160 right when the line opens, so I hope you're right about the 80%.

The reason I didn't go higher is because, odd as it is, Kimbo is actually the more experienced guy here.

[poopoo333]

I kind of want to deposit money in my account tomorrow to bet on one fight... I am thinking $100 on Shogun, or $245 to win $100 on Koscheck. Then withdraw my winnings if things goes well. hmmmm


OR if I do that and win, I will have a bigger bank roll...bigger bank roll=bigger units=bigger profit in the long run

[Ludo]

yeah Kimbo is the more experienced fighter, but he's undersized for the division and the guy he's fighting is still another heavyweight who cuts to 265 and likes to throw heavy hands. As long as Mitrione doesn't gas out he should win this fight.

[SPX]

OR if I do that and win, I will have a bigger bank roll...bigger bank roll=bigger units=bigger profit in the long run

This is the one, right here. You gotta look at this like a marathon, not a sprint.

I started betting on MMA about a year ago, and I have never once withdrawn money.

[Luke]

yeah Kimbo is the more experienced fighter, but he's undersized for the division and the guy he's fighting is still another heavyweight who cuts to 265 and likes to throw heavy hands. As long as Mitrione doesn't gas out he should win this fight.


What if Kimbo goes straight for a takedown to start the fight?

No way Mitrione wins this fight 80% of the time imo.Heck I dont even think he'll win

[poopoo333]

OR if I do that and win, I will have a bigger bank roll...bigger bank roll=bigger units=bigger profit in the long run

This is the one, right here. You gotta look at this like a marathon, not a sprint.

I started betting on MMA about a year ago, and I have never once withdrawn money.

I don't have the spare cash to spill on Hendricks or Lawlor, unless I go for a parlay wish will be -200. I don't know, I may just go for Koscheck at -245 after I get paid tomorrow night. Maybe his price will get lower

[SPX]

I don't have the spare cash to spill on Hendricks or Lawlor, unless I go for a parlay wish will be -200. I don't know, I may just go for Koscheck at -245 after I get paid tomorrow night. Maybe his price will get lower

My opinion on this isn't popular around here, but I would be careful on Kos. I think the chance of Daley landing that big shot is too great to bet on Kos at that line. Yes, Kos has all the tools to win this fight, and I expect him to win, but I still took Daley for .5u when I could get him for +260.

For me to bet on Kos in this one, I'd probably need -200 or better.

[Mr. IWS]

Im thinking (hoping) that the Mitrione gameplan, is to use leg kicks, to keep Kimbo at bay, and wear him out a bit.

Lets not forget, he got swept karate kid style by Houston with a leg kick, and Houston was throwing fade away kicks the whole fight. I dont even remember Kimbo checking any kicks, he was just taking them. Also, Kimbo got gassed out big time and all he really did was wrestle around a bit with the smaller fighter, and chase him around. Wrestling (I wont call it grappling) with Mitrione is going to be a hell of a lot more taxing on his questionable tank.

I just home Mitrione dont get scared like everyone else seems to be against Kimbo, save for James Thompson.

[SPX]

Also, Kimbo got gassed out big time and all he really did was wrestle around a bit with the smaller fighter, and chase him around. Wrestling (I wont call it grappling) with Mitrione is going to be a hell of a lot more taxing on his questionable tank.


Don't underestimate the power of the Kimboplex!


http://i27.photobucket.com/albums/c171/zygote7/MMA/kimboplex_2.gif


http://i27.photobucket.com/albums/c171/zygote7/MMA/kimboplex_1.gif

[zY|]

LOL

We need a gif of the 2nd time he tried the Kimboplex when he slammed them both on his own head.

[MMA_scientist]

Also, Kimbo got gassed out big time and all he really did was wrestle around a bit with the smaller fighter, and chase him around. Wrestling (I wont call it grappling) with Mitrione is going to be a hell of a lot more taxing on his questionable tank.


Don't underestimate the power of the Kimboplex!


I seriously doubt Kimbo is going to be ragdolling Mitrione like that. I don't think Kimbo has the takedowns to get Mitrione down and keep him there. Also, from what I have heard, Mitrione's ground game is not as bad as people think.

I am not betting it, but I expect Kimbo to get put to bed.

[Mr. IWS]

Isnt Mitrione training with Roufus? I have to believe kicking is part of the drilling in that camp.

[Ipickdeeznuts2win]

My plays:

5U on Kos
6U on Hendricks
5U on Hague
1U on Salter
8U on Filthy Mauler

5U on Alvarez for tonight

Over the last few weeks my Bookmaker account has graduated from wheelchair to crutches status. Slow recovery from the BS Penn decision.

[Mr. IWS]

Slow recovery from the BS Penn decision.

GL with the plays man.

I feel ya man. Im still a long ways off from digging out of that one.

[ManBoobKilla]

Isnt Mitrione training with Roufus? I have to believe kicking is part of the drilling in that camp.

Ya he is training with Roufus and Eric shafer. I think it will show in this fight.

[Svino]

[What really freaked people out was when they thought about how this phenomenon might relate to making group decisions about going to war, or launching nukes.]

LOL. Pretty interesting stuff, Svino.

What do you do for a living, by the way? Do you work in academia?

I'm work in a university lab that does research in optical physics. Lasers and shit.


Svino,

I do not recall sending out the nerd signal...

Sorry, that was my own internal nerd signal. The one that's pretty much always on.




Ya he is training with Roufus and Eric shafer. I think it will show in this fight.

Yeah, I think Mitrione's more likely to show up to the fight with improvements to his game than Kimbo is. I've been thinking about a bet on Mitrione ever since the fight was announced, but I think I'm going to chicken out. Roy Nelson said he thought Kimbo would have a substantial advantage on the ground. Normally, I ignore what other fighters say about a match, but Nelson seems like a straight-talker who would be in a good position to know and has little reason to lie. I doubt Kimbo has the skills to sub a bigger guy, but he could get some control points to help with a decision. If I could bet purely against Kimbo by KO, I would, but I don't see prop bets that add up well.

[AC88]

So far I'm liking: Shogun, Mitrione, Belcher, Lawlor, Hendricks (hope his submission defense is up to par, duno about putting anything on him atm)

[poopoo333]

My regrets for this card=
Yoshida, Hendricks, Lawlor parlay...I am scared Yoshida's head is going to get blasted into the audience again.
Belcher over Cote... Belcher's defense scares me.

[Ludo]

I doubt Guymon will win this fight. While Belcher's defense is sometimes questionable, I just don't see Cote being able to pull this one out, his first fight in about two years and multiple knee injuries to boot. Belcher should be able to control the distance and the fight in this one with his monster kicks.

[Luke]

I doubt Guymon will win this fight. While Belcher's defense is sometimes questionable, I just don't see Cote being able to pull this one out, his first fight in about two years and multiple knee injuries to boot. Belcher should be able to control the distance and the fight in this one with his monster kicks.


I really want to bet Cote but the layoff is holding me back. Instead of just standing there and taking kicks I think Cote will try to push Belcher up against the cage. No way I think he stands there and trades leg kicks

[Ipickdeeznuts2win]

I thought it was interesting the Kimbo came in at 225. That's 10lbs less that normal. I don't think it is because he hasn't gained all the weight back from the Houston fight, I think he's probably been training his ass off. I'm actually pulling for Kimbo.

[SPX]

^^^ I'm cool with a Kimbo win.

He seems like a genuine guy and decent enough, so fuck it, WAR KIMBO!

[Mr. IWS]

^^^ I'm cool with a Kimbo win.

He seems like a genuine guy and decent enough, so fuck it, WAR KIMBO!

NO!

[ManBoobKilla]

Im with you guys. Im really liking kimbo. Real laid back attitude but I did bet on Mitrione so either way I win

[SPX]

Im with you guys. Im really liking kimbo. Real laid back attitude but I did bet on Mitrione so either way I win

Yeah, I got money on Mitrione, but just half a unit so I won't be too broken up if Kimbo wins.

[SPX]

NO!

Damn, calm down!

What's your problem with K-Slice?

[Luke]

I thought it was interesting the Kimbo came in at 225. That's 10lbs less that normal. I don't think it is because he hasn't gained all the weight back from the Houston fight, I think he's probably been training his ass off. I'm actually pulling for Kimbo.


He doesnt even weigh 225 that damn chain he wears weighs at least 5 pounds or more

http://i161.photobucket.com/albums/t233/luke1899/kevin-kimbo-slice-ferguson.jpg

Kimbo should drop to 205 imo

I like Kimbo to win.If I bet tomorrow its going to be Cote or Kimbo but with everyone being on the opposite side of both I might just sit out and watch

[Mr. IWS]

I like Kimbo, but Im probably betting Mitrione.

I heard they almost fought at the weigh in.

[Luke]

I like Kimbo, but Im probably betting Mitrione.

I heard they almost fought at the weigh in.


Yeah it said they almost fought backstage

Whats your thoughts on Cote-Belcher?

[Thewiseman]

So far i have,
Hague 1.7u to win 1u
Belcher/Cote over 1.5 rds 1.57u to win 1u
Belcher by decision .19u to win 1u
Koscheck 9.9u to win 4u
Rua .6u to win 1u
Rua/Machida goes distance 2u to win 3.6u
Rua/Machida starts rd 3 9u to win 4u
Rua by dec .16u to win 1u

Parlay
Gouveia
Leites
Marcus Davis
Yoshida
.6u to win 1.1u

Marcus Davis
Hendricks
Yoshida
Lawlor
1.5u to win 2u

So basically im Screwed if Machida/Rua ends in the 1st two rounds.
Added Marcus Davis 8.5u to win 2u

[Mr. IWS]

Whats your thoughts on Cote-Belcher?


Im with you on your thoughts. If Cote wasnt coming off the layoff/Injury, I think he would push Belchers shit in. No play for Z.

[poopoo333]

Do you guys think Koscheck's line will get better today??

[SPX]

Do you guys think Koscheck's line will get better today??

I'm seeing him out there on a lot of books around -250. I really don't think it's going to get much better.

[poopoo333]

Do you guys think Koscheck's line will get better today??

I'm seeing him out there on a lot of books around -250. I really don't think it's going to get much better.

I just made my first bet to win $100 bet on him, just put some spare cash on my prepaid walmart card, deposited, and laid $255 on Kos.

This will make things interesting.

[Luke]

Do you guys think Koscheck's line will get better today??

I'm seeing him out there on a lot of books around -250. I really don't think it's going to get much better.

I just made my first bet to win $100 bet on him, just put some spare cash on my prepaid walmart card, deposited, and laid $255 on Kos.

This will make things interesting.


GL man

[SPX]

I just made my first bet to win $100 bet on him, just put some spare cash on my prepaid walmart card, deposited, and laid $255 on Kos.

This will make things interesting.

Damn, homey.

I got money on Daley so you put me in a tight in who to cheer for.

[SPX]

Now is Machida's line going to get better? That's the real question. I honestly expected him to end up around -130, considering the fact that most people thought Shogun WON the first fucking fight.

[Luke]

Now is Machida's line going to get better? That's the real question. I honestly expected him to end up around -130, considering the fact that most people thought Shogun WON the first fucking fight.


I dont see it moving unless at the end of the night people are chasing their losses

[SPX]

I'd take him at -150 or better. That's a 60% chance to win. Sounds about right to me.

[SPX]

Anyone have any suggestions for another all-in for my 5dimes account? There's about 3u in there now. Obviously I'm looking for a "safe" bet. I'm thinking of dumping it on Hendricks, but I just don't know. . .

[Thewiseman]

Anyone have any suggestions for another all-in for my 5dimes account? There's about 3u in there now. Obviously I'm looking for a "safe" bet. I'm thinking of dumping it on Hendricks, but I just don't know. . .
Put it on Koscheck.

[Thewiseman]

Anyone have any suggestions for another all-in for my 5dimes account? There's about 3u in there now. Obviously I'm looking for a "safe" bet. I'm thinking of dumping it on Hendricks, but I just don't know. . .
Put it on Koscheck.
Just seen you like Daley, Marcus Davis I think is a pretty Safe one.

[SPX]

Just seen you like Daley, Marcus Davis I think is a pretty Safe one.

The problem with Davis is that the return just sucks. I was hoping for slightly better odds.

[Luke]

I'd take him at -150 or better. That's a 60% chance to win. Sounds about right to me.


I think taking Kimbo tonight is the better bet .I'm betting it just deciding 1 or 2 units

[SPX]

I'm watching Grant get owned by Stun Gun right now.

My confidence in Hendricks increases.

[Svino]

Anyone have any suggestions for another all-in for my 5dimes account? There's about 3u in there now. Obviously I'm looking for a "safe" bet. I'm thinking of dumping it on Hendricks, but I just don't know. . .

Yeah, if you're going to keep pushing "all in" on a single guy, you'll want to stick with the safest bets. Probably Lawlor right now?

[SPX]

Yeah, if you're going to keep pushing "all in" on a single guy, you'll want to stick with the safest bets. Probably Lawlor right now?

Yeah, I guess I'm taking some risks in trying to build that account up. I don't have much in there and they won't take my credit card anymore, so unless I do the crazy Western Union bullshit then I won't be able to refund it. So only safe bets for me until I get to a level of comfort where I can take some hits and still survive.

Interestingly enough, I was down to $5 in there not too long ago and I bet it on Edgar at +525 and we know how they went. Then I hit another $5 bet on Shields at +330. Then last night I dropped everything on Leites and picked up another $10. So baby steps. But I've gone from being pretty much wiped out to actually having some funds in there so I hope if I keep focusing on safe plays then I can keep building that account back up into something viable.

I wish I could just transfer all my Sportsbook funds into there but that's not an option.

[Thewiseman]

The Wiseman specials
Machida/Rua over 3.5 rds
Kos
Stout by dec
Belcher/Cote over 1.5 rds
Davis
Hendricks
Yoshida
Lawlor
Hague
Macdonald
.02u to win 1.05u

Rua by dec
Kimbo
Kos ITD
Stout dec
Belcher dec
Davis
Hendricks
Yoshida
Lawlor
Hague
Macdonald
.02u to win 23.45u

Suns win series
Magic -2
Rua dec
Kos
Stout dec
Belcher dec
Davis
Yoshida
Rampage
Stun gun Kim
Barry
Jardine
W. Silva
Bonnar
Carwin
.02u to win 147.28u

[Luke]

The Wiseman specials
Machida/Rua over 3.5 rds
Kos
Stout by dec
Belcher/Cote over 1.5 rds
Davis
Hendricks
Yoshida
Lawlor
Hague
Macdonald
.02u to win 1.05u

Rua by dec
Kimbo
Kos ITD
Stout dec
Belcher dec
Davis
Hendricks
Yoshida
Lawlor
Hague
Macdonald
.02u to win 23.45u

Suns win series
Magic -2
Rua dec
Kos
Stout dec
Belcher dec
Davis
Yoshida
Rampage
Stun gun Kim
Barry
Jardine
W. Silva
Bonnar
Carwin
.02u to win 147.28u



::haptime::

[zY|]

LOL what's the line on "suns win series"? It's gotta be astronomical now.

[SPX]

If the Jazz get knocked out by LA then I'm hopping on the Suns' bandwagon. I like the Suns. They're cool. Steve Nash is the shit.

[MMA_scientist]

Anyone have any suggestions for another all-in for my 5dimes account? There's about 3u in there now. Obviously I'm looking for a "safe" bet. I'm thinking of dumping it on Hendricks, but I just don't know. . .

Koscheck represents the best value that is fairly certain. There is too much on the line with the TUF show and a title shot habging in the balance. Koscheck is going to fight smart.

Lawlor and Hendricks odds are too steep. Koscheck is just as secure as Hendricks IMO. Grant has some outs in that fight. Go watch the fight where he obliterates come guy with knees from the clinch. Then watch Hendricks shoot in with his head down. Also, grant is the best submission guys Hendricks has faced. Hendricks is going to win, but Grant has a few outs.

Lawlor is a lock though. If you are looking for an out and out winner, regardless of odds: Lawlor.

[Thewiseman]

LOL what's the line on "suns win series"? It's gotta be astronomical now.
It was -285 when I took it yesterday before the game. Its gonna be high now.

[ManBoobKilla]

Anyone have any suggestions for another all-in for my 5dimes account? There's about 3u in there now. Obviously I'm looking for a "safe" bet. I'm thinking of dumping it on Hendricks, but I just don't know. . .

I think that the safest bets are kos, lawler, davis and hague. I dont know why I am so worries about grant I just have a feeling about him. but could be completely wrong

[Mr. IWS]

I wound up just playing Kos, Mitrione, and Machida.

[zY|]

If the Jazz get knocked out by LA then I'm hopping on the Suns' bandwagon. I like the Suns. They're cool. Kevin Nash is the shit.

The wrestler?

Or did you mean Steve Nash?

[Luke]

Alright I'm locked in for the night

Kimbo Slice 2 units at +100

2 units to win 2


::handshake::

[Thewiseman]

I hedged out of Hague. If he wins I win .12u, if he loses I break even.

[MMA_scientist]

^^ its really weird what fights people decide to bet on. I wish there was a site that showed how much action each fight gets. I would find that really interesting.

[ManBoobKilla]

So I am done betting for ufc 113, here are my bets as follows.....
.5 u to win 1.75 u on Grant
4u to win 3.5 u on Lawlor, Davis, Hague
.5u to win 3u on Mitrione, Belcher, Stout, Kos
.5 to win .45u Mitrione
.5 to win 3.5 daley and shogun( did this along time ago)
.5U to win .75u alvarez, leites, kos
.5 to win 5u on shogun to win in rd 2 LOL! couldnt resist at +1000

[SPX]

The wrestler?

Or did you mean Steve Nash?

LOL

Yeah, my bad. Ol' Steve-O.

[poopoo333]

Ok. My "real plays" are:
1u on Shogun @+160
5u on Koscheck (3u@-250, 2u@-245)
3u on Stout @-190
2u on Belcher @-120
3u on Hague @-250
2u on Hendricks, Yoshida, and Lawlor @-103
0.5u on Kimbo via submission @+2200

Those are from my bankroll.


From my spare cash:
$255 to win $100 on Koscheck... uh oh
$20 to win $126.37 on parlay: Hendricks, Lawlor, Davis, Yoshida, Hague, Koscheck, Stout ...double uh oh
$5 to win Shogun has quickest TKO/KO to win $125
$5 to win Koscheck has quickest TKO/KO to win $50
$5 to win Davis has quickest TKO/KO to win $20
$5 to win Lawlor has quickest TKO/KO to win $60
$5 to win Hague has quickest TKO/KO to win $80

I think ONE of those quickest TKO/KO ones will hit. It will all be profitable in the end (unless Davis gets it, which I expect him to which will only be $5 loss)

[Luke]

^^ its really weird what fights people decide to bet on. I wish there was a site that showed how much action each fight gets. I would find that really interesting.


you talking to wiseman?

there are sites that show how much action is on NFL,NBA,and MLB games but none for MMA that I know of

[SPX]

Koscheck represents the best value that is fairly certain. There is too much on the line with the TUF show and a title shot habging in the balance. Koscheck is going to fight smart.

Lawlor and Hendricks odds are too steep. Koscheck is just as secure as Hendricks IMO. Grant has some outs in that fight. Go watch the fight where he obliterates come guy with knees from the clinch. Then watch Hendricks shoot in with his head down. Also, grant is the best submission guys Hendricks has faced. Hendricks is going to win, but Grant has a few outs.

Lawlor is a lock though. If you are looking for an out and out winner, regardless of odds: Lawlor.

Thanks for the feedback.

I just can't do Kos. I already have .75u on Daley and I gotta stick by that. Daley's one-punch power is just too dangerous for me to hop on that bandwagon, especially after seeing Kos get floored by Paulo Thiago. You may be right that he is going to play it safe, because that's exactly what he'll HAVE to do. He WILL NOT survive on the feet with Daley, barring some crazy flukey punch.

It sucks that everyone's odds are just fucking TERRIBLE.

[SPX]

I wound up just playing Kos, Mitrione, and Machida.

I'm thinking about rolling with you on Machida in a parlay.

[SPX]

Alright I'm locked in for the night

Kimbo Slice 2 units at +100

2 units to win 2


::handshake::

WAR K-SLICE!

[zY|]

LOL what's the line on "suns win series"? It's gotta be astronomical now.
It was -285 when I took it yesterday before the game. Its gonna be high now.

Yeah it's -2000 now. The Magic are -3500 and they're only up 2-0. Damn.

[poopoo333]

Kimbo will win via guillotine.

[Svino]

In the end: I'm in on Rua, Koscheck, and Salter.

[SPX]

Anyone here see Lawlor's Dan Severn impersonation at the weigh-ins?

That shit cracked me the fuck up!

[Mr. IWS]

Anyone here see Lawlor's Dan Severn impersonation at the weigh-ins?

That shit cracked me the fuck up!

haha, yup. I love how Rogan introduced him as Severn.

[Mr. IWS]

http://i39.tinypic.com/ilxbh3.jpg

[Mr. IWS]

http://i40.tinypic.com/25uo8bl.jpg

[zY|]

http://i40.tinypic.com/25uo8bl.jpg

Amazing.

So in his last three fights he's been Severn, Harold Howard, and the Just Bleed guy at the weighins. Classic.

[Mr. IWS]

If this mutherfucker paints himself black, and puts on a boxing glove on one had and does Art Jimmerson, Im renaming this forum Tom Lawlor.

[Mr. IWS]

For anyone who gives a shit, ESPN2 has MMALive at the event on at 9pm EST.

Franklin McNeil talked to a source, and that source told him, that he owns your soul.

[zY|]

^^Here's Kenny and GSP prepping for MMA Live, via Kenflo's twitter.

http://s3.amazonaws.com/twitpic/photos/full/97732777.jpg?AWSAccessKeyId=0ZRYP5X5F6FSMBCCSE82&Expires=1273358421&Signature=eviOCjXT3C1JZtejQzs4%2Bspn0C8%3D

[SPX]

My bets:

Jeremy Stephens: .75u to win 1.25
Alan Belcher: .75 to win .95u
Paul Daley: .75u to win 1.95
Matt Mitrione: .5u to win .8u

Salter-Machida: .25u to win .74u

Better be a night for the dogs!

[Mr. IWS]

My bets:

Jeremy Stephens: .75u to win 1.25
Alan Belcher: .75 to win .95u
Paul Daley: .75u to win 1.95
Matt Mitrione: .5u to win .8u

Salter-Machida: .25u to win .74u

Better be a night for the dogs!


I thought you were on Kimbo?