Trial event#1 for contest: Strikeforce Melendez vs. Masvidal

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  • Svino
    Senior Member
    • Mar 2010
    • 3873

    Trial event#1 for contest: Strikeforce Melendez vs. Masvidal

    This event will be a trial event for the "Pick the right side of the line" contest so people can get a feel for how it works. The results will not be connected in any way to the eventual contest.

    Feel free to participate even if you don't want to do the full contest.

    I will post adjusted lines based on BookMaker's lines (*). You then pick the outcomes of as many fights as you want. Results will be scored as a bet risking your fighter's win percentage to win their opponent's win percentage. Picking Masdvidal would be risking 0.74 to win 0.26. Picking OSP would be risking 0.27 to win 0.73, and so on.

    You can copy the text below and highlight the fighter you want to pick, or you can just make a list of names. Either way. The fighters and their odds for this event are:

    Gilbert Melendez (-285, 74%) vs. Jorge Masvidal (+285, 26%)

    Gegard Mousasi (-270, 73%) vs. Ovince St. Preux (+270, 27%)

    Cristiane Santos (-733, 88%) vs. Hiroko Yamanaka (+733, 12%)

    Kj Noons (-203, 67%) vs. Billy Evangelista (+203, 33%)

    Justin Wilcox (-170, 63%) vs. Caros Fodor (+170, 37%)

    Devin Cole (-144, 59%) vs. Gabriel Salinas-Jones (+144, 41%)

    Roger Bowling (-300, 75%) vs. Jerron Peoples (+300, 25%)


    (*) The formula, which I believe is the reverse of the process that is essentially in use by the oddsmakers, is this: Each moneyline is converted to a win%. The vig is removed by dividing by the sum of a fighter's and their opponent's win percentage, i.e. WinProbAdjusted = WinProb / (WinProb + OpponentsWinProb). Those who wish can check my numbers with the tool here:


    I then round off the resulting percentage to the nearest point, and convert that to a it's equivalent moneyline. (I also then round off the moneyline, so the percent I show is the true line used for the contest.)
  • sbjj
    Senior Member
    • May 2010
    • 1418

    #2
    Jorge Masvidal (+285, 26%)

    Ovince St. Preux (+270, 27%)

    Cristiane Santos (-733, 88%)

    Kj Noons (-203, 67%)

    Justin Wilcox (-170, 63%)

    Devin Cole (-144, 59%)

    Roger Bowling (-300, 75%)

    Comment

    • SPX
      Senior Member
      • Aug 2009
      • 23875

      #3
      Man, this is some straight mathematical shit here . . . I'm going to have to think about this.
      I heart cock

      Comment

      • Ludo
        Senior Member
        • Jan 2010
        • 4931

        #4
        Originally posted by SPX
        Man, this is some straight mathematical shit here . . . I'm going to have to think about this.
        Don't be such a vagina.

        Gilbert Melendez (-285, 74%)
        Ovince St. Preux (+270, 27%)
        Cristiane Santos (-733, 88%)
        Kj Noons (-203, 67%)
        Roger Bowling (-300, 75%)
        2013: +8.24u(increased unit size on 5/19)
        Favorites: 20-6 + 6.13u
        Underdogs: 10-19 -2.51u
        Ludo's Locks Parlay Project: +1.4u

        2012: +20.311u

        Comment

        • MMA_scientist
          Senior Member
          • Nov 2009
          • 9857

          #5
          Do we have to pick every fight?
          2012: +19.33
          2012 Parlay project: +16.5u

          Comment

          • Ludo
            Senior Member
            • Jan 2010
            • 4931

            #6
            Originally posted by MMA_scientist
            Do we have to pick every fight?
            I doubt it, but obviously the chances are better if you do.
            2013: +8.24u(increased unit size on 5/19)
            Favorites: 20-6 + 6.13u
            Underdogs: 10-19 -2.51u
            Ludo's Locks Parlay Project: +1.4u

            2012: +20.311u

            Comment

            • poopoo333
              MMA *********
              • Jan 2010
              • 18302

              #7
              I'm too fucking stupid. Peace.

              Comment

              • poopoo333
                MMA *********
                • Jan 2010
                • 18302

                #8
                Gilbert Melendez (-285, 74%)

                Ovince St. Preux (+270, 27%)

                Caros Fodor (+170, 37%)

                Roger Bowling (-300, 75%)

                Cristiane Santos (-733, 88%)

                Comment

                • MMA_scientist
                  Senior Member
                  • Nov 2009
                  • 9857

                  #9
                  Gil
                  OSP
                  Noons
                  Wilcox
                  2012: +19.33
                  2012 Parlay project: +16.5u

                  Comment

                  • mike
                    Senior Member
                    • Mar 2010
                    • 541

                    #10
                    chris santos
                    wilcox
                    melendes
                    noons
                    osp

                    Comment

                    • zY|
                      Senior Member
                      • Sep 2009
                      • 8385

                      #11
                      tl;dr

                      Melendez
                      Mousasi
                      Cyborg
                      Noons
                      Wilcox

                      Triple-six killers in this motherfucker runnin shit

                      Comment

                      • Svino
                        Senior Member
                        • Mar 2010
                        • 3873

                        #12
                        Gilbert Melendez
                        Ovince St. Preux
                        Cristiane Santos
                        Kj Noons
                        Justin Wilcox
                        Gabriel Salinas-Jones
                        Roger Bowling

                        Comment

                        • High5
                          Senior Member
                          • Feb 2010
                          • 267

                          #13
                          Jorge Masvidal (+285, 26%)
                          Ovince St. Preux (+270, 27%)
                          Cristiane Santos (-733, 88%)
                          Kj Noons (-203, 67%)
                          Justin Wilcox (-170, 63%)
                          Gabriel Salinas-Jones (+144, 41%)
                          Jerron Peoples (+300, 25%)

                          Comment

                          • Thewisemann
                            Senior Member
                            • Feb 2010
                            • 1989

                            #14
                            Masvidal
                            OSP
                            Santos
                            Noons
                            Wilcox

                            Comment

                            • Luke
                              10 year vet
                              • Oct 2006
                              • 30060

                              #15
                              Jorge Masvidal (+285, 26%)
                              Gegard Mousasi (-270, 73%)
                              Cristiane Santos (-733, 88%)
                              Billy Evangelista (+203, 33%)
                              Caros Fodor (+170, 37%)
                              Devin Cole (-144, 59%)
                              Roger Bowling (-300, 75%)
                              2015 MMA BETTING CHAMP


                              Comment

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