2012 Off topic thread(basketball,movies,etc whatever)
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This article about beating roulette appeared on the arXiv recently. I thought some of you might find it interesting.
There have been several popular reports of various groups exploiting the deterministic nature of the game of roulette for profit. Moreover, through its history the inherent determinism in the game of roulette has attracted the attention of many luminaries of chaos theory. In this paper we provide a short review of that history and then set out to determine to what extent that determinism can really be exploited for profit. To do this, we provide a very simple model for the motion of a roulette wheel and ball and demonstrate that knowledge of initial position, velocity and acceleration is sufficient to predict the outcome with adequate certainty to achieve a positive expected return. We describe two physically realisable systems to obtain this knowledge both incognito and {\em in situ}. The first system relies only on a mechanical count of rotation of the ball and the wheel to measure the relevant parameters. By applying this techniques to a standard casino-grade European roulette wheel we demonstrate an expected return of at least 18%, well above the -2.7% expected of a random bet. With a more sophisticated, albeit more intrusive, system (mounting a digital camera above the wheel) we demonstrate a range of systematic and statistically significant biases which can be exploited to provide an improved guess of the outcome. Finally, our analysis demonstrates that even a very slight slant in the roulette table leads to a very pronounced bias which could be further exploited to substantially enhance returns.
There was also a New Scientist piece about it:
Timing is everything A PROMINENT mathematician famous the world over for successfully turning the odds of roulette against the house has broken his decades-long silence about how he achieved the coup. In the 1970s, Doyne Farmer, then a graduate student, used the world's first wearable computer to beat roulette tables in Nevada, but never revealed …Comment
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Movies recently seen:
Safe -- Typical Jason Statham action fare. Just kind of mediocre. I wish he would either get back to making GOOD action movies (like The One) or doing more dramatic stuff (like Snatch and The Bank Job).
The Avengers -- Good but not great. Personally, I thought most--if not all--of the individual films were better. This one seemed like it didn't really get off the ground until the last 30 minutes and the story was just kind of eh.
Dark Shadows -- Surprisingly entertaining. Not as comedic as the trailers would have you believe, which is a good thing. I liked it and would recommend to fans of Depp/Burton.Last edited by SPX; 05-14-2012, 03:54 PM.I heart cockComment
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I thought it was pretty lame. It was kind of neat seeing all the superheroes on the same screen, but that's about as far as it went. Typical popcorn flick, nothing special IMO. I agree that the individual movies were better, I didnt' see Captain America though. Iron Man was certainly better IMO. Maybe Hulk was worse.2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5uComment
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I thought it was pretty lame. It was kind of neat seeing all the superheroes on the same screen, but that's about as far as it went. Typical popcorn flick, nothing special IMO. I agree that the individual movies were better, I didnt' see Captain America though. Iron Man was certainly better IMO. Maybe Hulk was worse.
Captain America was a good movie. I also liked the new Hulk with Ed Norton.I heart cockComment
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I will say this though, the CG looked way better than anything I have seen in the other movies. Hulk actually looked like he had some "weight" and I was never distracted by the effects the way I am in other movies. Even in Avatar, I was really distracted by how cartoonish it was and how the movements looked so weightless and stupid. So there's that. Still -- Lou Ferigno > all CG Hulks IMO.2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5uComment
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I didn't go in with high hopes. Any time a movie is supposed to appeal to everyone, it almost always comes out the same watered down drivel. So I wasn't expecting too much and I was not disappointed. The guy i went with though, he walked out and said "well that was dogshit." He was expecting something more for some reason.
I will say this though, the CG looked way better than anything I have seen in the other movies. Hulk actually looked like he had some "weight" and I was never distracted by the effects the way I am in other movies. Even in Avatar, I was really distracted by how cartoonish it was and how the movements looked so weightless and stupid. So there's that. Still -- Lou Ferigno > all CG Hulks IMO.I heart cockComment
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I don't see how you can be too disappointed with the Avengers movie. I thought it was just an extremely well-done version of a superhero-popcorn flick. It wasn't high art, to be sure, but I don't see many people going in expecting that. I pretty much agree with the reviews; I liked it more than any of the movies about the individual heroes.
The first Iron Man might give it a run for its money, but consider this: Without looking it up, can you name either the villain in that movie or the actor who played him? (I couldn't) I can't consider a superhero movie that great if the main antagonist leaves no impression at all.
SPX, with regard to the writing, Whedon's style is probably something that either you love or you hate. I'm in the "love it" camp. And even though I recognize he's had his missteps (Dollhouse was awful), I think he knocked it out of the park in Avengers.Comment
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