UFC on FX 2, March 3rd

[trotterz]

As for Mccall here are his last opponents since the Cruz loss

montague (9-2 with one of his lost to Mccall)
ortiz (8-1 his lonely loss is to Mccall)
da silva (12-1 his lonely loss is to Mccall and he was beeing known as the #1 flyweight before his loss to Mccall)
Willingham (16-15)

all of those guys are not well known since they have been fighting on regional shows, but it doesn,t mean that they are not good competition.

[edman5555]

I was having the same thoughts about Mcall. Another thing to consider. 5dimes will probably offer Mcall +3.5 points as well. Maybe. That would be a solid bet and it would most likely be at + numbers.

[trotterz]

Could you explain the 3.5?

[SPX]

all of those guys are not well known since they have been fighting on regional shows, but it doesn,t mean that they are not good competition.

Da Silva was actually a Shooto Brazil champ, which I would consider to be a step up from a regional show.

[Ludo]

Also, Page was beating BJ handily before the choke.

Page wasn't winning the fight. He won the first round but spent over 60% of the second round on his back getting punched in the face from guard and side control and side backmount. Round 3 was pretty much a demolition up to the choke. Damacio got dropped by strikes, then was getting worked from guard and side control, and as soon as he tried to get up DJ locked up that front choke and drove him back down with it before tapping him.

[Ludo]

Could you explain the 3.5?

It's essentially a point spread for fighting. If the fight goes to decision and the you picked the fighter with +3.5 he can lose the fight and your bet will win if he covers the spread. For instance if the scores on all three cards are 29-28 for the fighter you didn't bet on then you've won because the point differential is only 3 points. But if he loses 30-27, 29-28, 29-28 you lost your bet because it's more than 3.5 points. If the fighter you picked on points wins inside the distance you win that way as well.

Say the lines are

Fighter A: -3.5 at -170
Fighter B: +3.5 at +140

you bet Fighter B. The fight goes all three rounds and the judges have it 29-28, 29-28, and 29-28 all for fighter A, you win the bet because it's under 3.5 points across the scorecards.

[Svino]

I've decided not to place prefight bets on fights that I can bet live, so here are my thoughts on the main card fights:

Philippou vs. Mcgee: Mcgee should be able to win with wrestling, but if he's having a lot of trouble with takedowns early, there may be a window for good betting on Philippou. Also, this fight may be more likely to go the distance than it's being given credit for.

I think the odds on both the midgetweight fights are a little too steep in the directions of the favorites. Watch for any signs of life at all from the dogs, especially if they are winning the FM-style strike count.

I think both Kampmann and Alves are a little overrated as strikers, but I think Alves is over 60% to take this. I will take him as long as he doesn't look like crap early.



(Also, a notice: I missed the Noke / Craig fight in my line listings for the torunament. So that is up now if you want to bet it.)

[trotterz]

It's essentially a point spread for fighting. If the fight goes to decision and the you picked the fighter with +3.5 he can lose the fight and your bet will win if he covers the spread. For instance if the scores on all three cards are 29-28 for the fighter you didn't bet on then you've won because the point differential is only 3 points. But if he loses 30-27, 29-28, 29-28 you lost your bet because it's more than 3.5 points. If the fighter you picked on points wins inside the distance you win that way as well.

Say the lines are

Fighter A: -3.5 at -170
Fighter B: +3.5 at +140

you bet Fighter B. The fight goes all three rounds and the judges have it 29-28, 29-28, and 29-28 all for fighter A, you win the bet because it's under 3.5 points across the scorecards.

Ok so just to be sure that I understand clearly. If I bet McCall +3.5

it means that if McCall win by anyway he wants, I win,
and if Johnson wins by 29/28 29/28 29/28 or less, I still win?

[Ludo]

Ok so just to be sure that I understand clearly. If I bet McCall +3.5

it means that if McCall win by anyway he wants, I win,
and if Johnson wins by 29/28 29/28 29/28 or less, I still win?

Correct. Your basically betting that McCall in that situation can win at least one round on all cards.

[poopoo333]

Page wasn't winning the fight. He won the first round but spent over 60% of the second round on his back getting punched in the face from guard and side control and side backmount. Round 3 was pretty much a demolition up to the choke. Damacio got dropped by strikes, then was getting worked from guard and side control, and as soon as he tried to get up DJ locked up that front choke and drove him back down with it before tapping him.

My bad then...I think DJ getting taken down a lot in R1 is stuck in my head then. I remember Page slowing down and getting choked out though

[edman5555]

mcall +2.5 is -240 or so. Not a very good bet. Mcall by decision is +600

[Ludo]

My bad then...I think DJ getting taken down a lot in R1 is stuck in my head then. I remember Page slowing down and getting choked out though

It's cool. Yeah he was getting taken down pretty much whenever Page wanted it in the first round. The Pickett fight was bad, all those head throws and immediate side control positions.

[SPX]

In case no one heard me before, this is a fucking TERRIBLE card for betting.

[edman5555]

hoyl shit i didnt realize this was tonight.

[SPX]

Get with the program, mofo.