UFC 141 Betting Results

[MMA_scientist]

Speaking of not hedging so much, I need to do that too. I need to get my balls back. I hedge everything and just chip away because I hate the volatility of winning a lot and losing a lot.

[MMA_scientist]

I am going to create a chart of the 2011 tracker. It will probably take me a few days, but I think it will be interesting.

[edman5555]

Edman, I am interested in your thoughts on that incredible and unsustainable ROI we talked about earlier this year. You didn't make much progress over the last half of the year, I remember you were up like 100u in august. Still, unbelievable year, congrats.

Thanks. I didn't put as much effort into in the second half of the year. I had more going on I guess. I was also drinking a lot. I have really got to give up alcohol. I was putting a massive amount of effort into this for the first half of the year. Multiple hours every single day breaking down fights. I don't know if you noticed but I haven't been posting as much lately. I tried to keep betting + not putting the same amount of work in. All in all I still did ok I guess. I am upping it to 100 dollar units this year. We'll see what happens.

[Mr. IWS]

fixed?

[Mr. IWS]

Ill fix Vandys later. I figured out where I fucked those up.

[MMA_scientist]

I am going to create a chart of the 2011 tracker. It will probably take me a few days, but I think it will be interesting.

I created a month by month volatility chart for my bets in 2011. Anyone else want to be added to the chart? I can probably add one person per day, took me about 30 mins.

[MMA_scientist]

The red is me, the gray is an average line.

2011 IWS chart.jpg

[MMA_scientist]

Shit, that is small. Also, i made a mistake in the graph on the left...

[poopoo333]

I do.

[mike]

Well, by "all-in" I mean up to the max allowed. Which is usually a bet of $1000 (for favorites) or a bet to win $1000 (for underdogs). The only times I've literally won 1k on a prop, I have also ended up hedged it with other bets. I am going to try to hedge a little less this year. Henderson/Rua at +500, Melendez/Masvidal at +200, Mousasi/OSP at +200, Watson/Jabouin at +300, were all decision props I hit hard. There were some annoying failures too: I was max-bet on Cro-Cop/Nelson to go the distance at +300, for example.

when u say decision prop, does that mean u pick the fight to go to a decision without picking a winner? or do you pick "henderson by dec", for example?

[Svino]

when u say decision prop, does that mean u pick the fight to go to a decision without picking a winner? or do you pick "henderson by dec", for example?

I meant simply betting that the fight will go the distance. Of course, there are often good lines on picking the specific outcome as well.

[mike]

ah i see.