UFC on Fuel February 3rd Bets Thread

[Vandelay]

no live betting? like to hedge out hjere

[Vandelay]

nevermind, somehow markes is still the fav after he lost rd 1

[Luke]

^^^^^^talking to self,negged

[edman5555]

herman tko .5u to win .67u

[Vandelay]

1.11 to win 1 on Herman.

[edman5555]

diego .25u to win .83u

[edman5555]

added to my diego bet for a total of 1u to win 3.35u

[MMA_scientist]

Its official: I am terrible.

I came close to betting Dillishaw/Miocic... need to get back to my bread and butter. I am about to start whupping ass in here.

[edman5555]

took it in my ass. i know exactly what you mean scientist. i hate myself.

[MMA_scientist]

I actually came out slightly ahead (lost .5u in here, but picked up a little more than .5u in the 2012 parlay), but I can only win with gimmick bets and magic. I have been playing almost all dogs so far in 2012, and I am fucking horrible at it. I just feel like all of the fave's are overpriced lately. I need to stop focusing on "value" so much, and just pick fighters I think are going to win.

It looks like you only lost a couple units. It is just frustrating, being that we are 1/6 of the way through the the year, and I am down 2u. You'll bounce back. We all will, I just hate the process of letting it play out.

[Svino]

I have been playing almost all dogs so far in 2012, and I am fucking horrible at it. I just feel like all of the fave's are overpriced lately. I need to stop focusing on "value" so much, and just pick fighters I think are going to win.

I got my butt kicked again tonight, so I'm now down for the year even with live betting. I think what you said here may be the key for why some of us haven't been doing as well:

Favorites are on an extreme hot streak in MMA. I don't know if it's just luck, or the fact that a higher fraction of the cards this year have been "low level" (like cards on FX or Fuel), but people like me who like to bet dogs are getting killed.

[edman5555]

yeah i keep losing because i am looking for the "big win" and betting the bigger payouts. I don't know if that is what you guys are doing but I am sure we can do better. It is kinda like playing the wheel in roulette. We can do better.

[Ludo]

I got my butt kicked again tonight, so I'm now down for the year even with live betting. I think what you said here may be the key for why some of us haven't been doing as well:

Favorites are on an extreme hot streak in MMA. I don't know if it's just luck, or the fact that a higher fraction of the cards this year have been "low level" (like cards on FX or Fuel), but people like me who like to bet dogs are getting killed.

It's been like this through all of last year basically. I was primarily a dog-betting bettor but last year I got MURDERED betting dogs and had the total opposite luck with Favorites.

My 2011 totals for straight bets:

49-48-2 = +.802u
Favorites: 34-19-1 = +6.175u
Underdogs: 15-29-1 = -5.373u

I bet pretty much the same amount of fighters as dogs and as favorites but the effects were vastly different. Remember I don't usually bet anyone who's priced over -200 and I NEVER bet anything over -240 as a rule, at least as straight bets, even if it's Anderson Silva or GSP.

[SPX]

I think having any kind of strategy like "bet mostly dogs" or "look for the big payout" is unwise. There's a built-in system for being successful. If you're really confident that the fighter has a greater chance of winning than the line indicates, bet it. Whether it's a fave or a dog shouldn't matter.

[Svino]

I think having any kind of strategy like "bet mostly dogs" or "look for the big payout" is unwise. There's a built-in system for being successful. If the fighter has a greater chance of winning than the line indicates, bet it.

Sure, but any given bettor might have more skill at identifying value at certain ranges of the line. I do think that I have an easier time seeing value in that +120 to +180-like range, where you can often get fights where there's no real reason to favor one guy over the other.