UFC on FX 4, June 22nd

[Luke]

Just wonder what kind of shape Maynard is in after the 2 wars with Edgar

[poopoo333]

Just wonder what kind of shape Maynard is in after the 2 wars with Edgar

Yeah..agreed. Really think Guida has a chance. Only thing I am worried about is Maynard being too big/strong for Guida and just stuffing his takedowns easily throughout the fight. Kinda think Guida's retarded movement like in the Gomi fight might frustrate Maynard as well.

[poopoo333]

MAIN CARD (FX)

• Clay Guida vs. Gray Maynard
• Spencer Fisher vs. Sam Stout
• Brian Ebersole vs. T.J. Waldburger
• Ross Pearson vs. Cub Swanson

PRELIMINARY CARD (FUEL TV)

• Hatsu Hioki vs. Ricardo Lamas
• C.J. Keith vs. Ramsey Nijem
• Joey Gambino vs. Steven Siler
• Matt Brown vs. Luis Ramos
• Chis Camozzi vs. Nick Catone
• Ricardo Funch vs. Dan Miller
• Edwin Figueroa vs. Ken Stone
• Brock Jardine vs. Rick Story

[Thewisemann]

Fisher +255 vs Stout?

[SPX]

It's probably justified, I think. I know Fisher beat Stout once before, but I think he has declined since then while Stout may have actually gotten better.

With that said, at the current line, if I was going to bet anyone it would have to be Fisher. I will probably just stay away altogether, though.

[poopoo333]

Fight goes the distance is the play imo. However Fisher HAS been on the decline, but I honestly think Stout is looking a bit more unimpressive. I have a feeling Shawn Tompkins' death has had an effect on his mental state and probably even training.

[SPX]

I'm not sure I believe in the Shawn Thompkins Curse and I'm not sure what you mean about Stout looking "a bit more unimpressive." His fight with Tavares was super close and Tavares is a tough fight for anyone so long as he's not facing Roller's Fists o' Doom.

Before the Tavares fight he had gone 4-1, only losing a split to Jeremy Stephens, and had picked up his only KO in the UFC against a KO who has only been knocked out 4 times in 60 fights. Fisher, on the other hand, is 1-4 in his last 5. Admittedly, he's been facing some pretty good guys, but he also got TKOd by the soon-to-be-cut Joe Stevenson.

I will say though that Stout has a tendency to fight close fights. A lot of his wins and losses are by SD, so maybe if Fisher brings his A++ game and fights like his job is on the line (which it probably is) then he can steal it.

[Ludo]

Yeah..agreed. Really think Guida has a chance. Only thing I am worried about is Maynard being too big/strong for Guida and just stuffing his takedowns easily throughout the fight. Kinda think Guida's retarded movement like in the Gomi fight might frustrate Maynard as well.

I just think if Maynard can catch Edgar with all Edgar's movement he can find Guida's chin as well. Maynard will get the better of the wrestling exchanges and replicate Bendo's gameplan by just being bigger and stronger.

[Thewisemann]

I would put Stout -150. I'll be on Fisher most likely but I have to watch some fights first.

[poopoo333]

Clay Guida vs Gray Maynard - 5 rounds - UFC on FX 4 propositions
Fri 6/22		1003 Guida/Maynard goes 5 round distance		-140
11:00PM		1004 Fight won't go 5 round distance		+100
Fri 6/22		1005 Guida wins inside distance		+553
11:00PM		1006 Not Guida inside distance		-1057
Fri 6/22		1007 Guida wins by 5 round decision		+464
11:00PM		1008 Not Guida by 5 round decision		-790
Fri 6/22		1009 Maynard wins inside distance		+163
11:00PM		1010 Not Maynard inside distance		-213
Fri 6/22		1011 Maynard wins by 5 round decision		+130
11:00PM		1012 Not Maynard by 5 round decision		-170
Fri 6/22		1013 Guida/Maynard draw		+7000
11:00PM		1014 Fight not a draw		-18500
Spencer Fisher vs Sam Stout - 3 rounds - UFC on FX 4 propositions
Fri 6/22		1103 Fisher/Stout goes 3 round distance		-280
10:30PM		1104 Fight won't go 3 round distance		+200
Fri 6/22		1105 Fisher wins inside distance		+625
10:30PM		1106 Not Fisher inside distance		-1275
Fri 6/22		1107 Fisher wins by 3 round decision		+406
10:30PM		1108 Not Fisher by 3 round decision		-616
Fri 6/22		1109 Stout wins inside distance		+327
10:30PM		1110 Not Stout inside distance		-480
Fri 6/22		1111 Stout wins by 3 round decision		-134
10:30PM		1112 Not Stout by 3 round decision		-106
Fri 6/22		1113 Fisher/Stout draw		+6000
10:30PM		1114 Fight not a draw		-15000

[poopoo333]

I just think if Maynard can catch Edgar with all Edgar's movement he can find Guida's chin as well. Maynard will get the better of the wrestling exchanges and replicate Bendo's gameplan by just being bigger and stronger.

Actually thinking Guida has less of a chance then I did beforehand after watching some video. Gray Maynard is actually a pretty good striker. He moves in and out very well and has good foot work. For some reason in my mind I thought of Gray as a guy that just walks forward and strikes..that is not the case. Maybe it was in my mind because that's sort of what he did at times in the Edgar fight, but that was due to fatigue imo. Guida has weird ass movement but his striking is so basic, I think Maynard will get the better of him on the feet for sure. I think every time Guida decides to rush Maynard, he will get countered and hit with some some good shots. I really don't think Guida will be able to get Maynard down and keep him there as well, a part of me thinks Guida will go to 145 after this fight. Who has taken Maynard down and kept him there? Everytime Edgar took Maynard down, Maynard popped right back up/almost reversed and ended up getting to his feet. The only way I see Guida winning is a controversial decision, or stealing one of the first 3 rounds and taking over in the 4th and 5th if Maynard slows down.

I think a play on Maynard is warranted with a hedge on Guida by decision.

Where do you guys think the line will go on this fight? If Maynard's line is going to get better, I need to get on Guida by decision right now.


Edit: Actually, I like Stout as well. So possibly a Stout/Maynard parlay @-140 and a hedge with Guida by decision. Thoughts?

[Ludo]

I don't think Maynard will slow down. The only reason he did with Edgar is because he threw a shit ton of shots trying to finish the guy. In the third fight with Edgar I don't remember him slowing down. Even still, Guida isn't the kind of guy who can force Gray to push a pace he's unable to keep, Gray will always be able to slow things down when he wants.

[poopoo333]

I need to watch the 3rd fight again.

After some thinking, I am not sure if I am too confident in Stout to put in a good sized parlay with Maynard. There will be 15 minutes of (maybe) close striking, I am eery of a bad decision. Looking at the card, are there any "safe" fighters to parlay Maynard with?

[Ludo]

maybe Hioki? Lamas is a grappler as well, but I don't see him outgrappling Hioki.

[Thewisemann]

I don't see any reason the 3rd fight will Be any different. 2 u on Fisher.