TUF Finale June 1st

[poopoo333]

Not shit to bet really...unless I decide to watch a whole season of TUF. I guess I like Kampmann at those odds.

[SPX]

Byron Bloodworth

Most awesome name ever.

[Luke]

I like finalist No. 2 at -150 or better

[poopoo333]

Main card

• Welterweight bout: Jake Ellenberger vs. Martin Kampmann^[1]

Preliminary card

• Featherweight bout: Max Holloway vs. Pat Schilling^[1]
• Featherweight bout: Jonathan Brookins vs. Charles Oliveira^[1]
• Lightweight bout: Justin Lawrence vs. John Cofer^[1]
• Lightweight bout: Myles Jury vs. Chris Saunders^[1]
• Lightweight bout: Daron Cruickshank vs. Chris Tickle^[1]
• Lightweight bout: Cristiano Marcello vs. Sam Sicilia^[1]
• Bantamweight bout: John Albert vs. Erik Perez^[1]

[poopoo333]

Anybody know anything/been watching these TUF guys?

Thoughts on Brookins/Oliveira? Tough one to call imo...but it's a fight I am looking forward to seeing

[MMA_scientist]

I think Oliveira will be too much for Brookins. He is definitely better standing, if Brookins can take him down, we will have to see how good his defense is, but I think Oliveira will probably get it done. Depends on the line of course, but I would be looking for something close to even, under -150

[poopoo333]

Opened Oliveira -300 Brookins +220 on 5d

[Vandelay]

I like Oliveira here. Not really impressed with brookins. Oliveira should have the better standup and ground game.

[poopoo333]

Anybody have any thoughts on Kampmann/Ellenberger or betting it? I like Kampmann at +200 and I am thinking about playing the distance prop.

[MMA_scientist]

I think slight edge to Ellenberger. Kampmann has value IMO. I think it will be close, with Ellenberger getting the better of it early by mixing up a few takedowns. Kampmann might surprise Ellenberger with his underrated wrestling though. I don't have confidence either way, but @ +200, I really don't think you can go wrong on Kampmann

[poopoo333]

Also gotta take consideration in this being a 5 round fight. I see Kampmann getting takedowns of his own in rounds 3,4, and 5.

Ellenberger by split decision @+1200 has value. Actually, it is a lock.

[SPX]

Ellenberger always gasses. He beat the shit out of Diego early on but Diego almost finished him in the third. I think that if he can keep from getting finished in rounds 1 and 2, then Kamp could take 3, 4 and 5. And it wouldn't shock me to see him take 1 and 2 as well.

[edman5555]

Ellenberger has big power and Kampmann frequently gets dropped. Cardio advantage goes to Kampmann. Kampmann probably has a bjj edge too. Ellenberger is really going to have to watch out for those guillotines which will make his takedowns a lot harder to land. As the fight goes on I could definelty see it getting hard for Ellenberger. As he gasses(if he does) he could getp icked apart by Kampmann. Kampmanns striking is pretty solid, probably better that Ellenbergers technically. He does have less power though. This is a close and interesting fight. @ +200 I would agree that Kampmann is the best pick.

[poopoo333]

When has Kampmann been dropped since the Marquardt fight @ 185?

[edman5555]

That is a good point. Only the much larger Marky Marquardt and Paul daley dropped him. They both can drop anyone. Especially Paul Daley.