Bellator 64

[Vandelay]

Main Card
Welterweight Championship: Ben Askren (c) vs. Douglas Lima

Season Six Tournaments
Featherweight Tournament Semifinal: Alexandre Bezerra vs. Marlon Sandro

Bantamweight Tournament Opening Round: Travis Marx vs. Masakatsu Ueda

Bantamweight Tournament Opening Round: Rodrigo Lima vs. Hiroshi Nakamura

[Vandelay]

Any guesses on the Askren/Lima and Sandro/Bezerra lines?

[poopoo333]

Askren -325/Lima +275

Sandro -180 Bezerra +140

[MMA_scientist]

Askren -325/Lima +275

Sandro -180 Bezerra +140

I don't think Askren will be -325. If he is, I will be on Lima. Lima is dangerous, but he does get taken pretty easily.

[poopoo333]

I like Askren in the fight, I hope he isn't -325. Douglas Lima's only chance imo is to get a sub from the bottom. Jesse Juarez took Lima down easy and held him there each round and was on his way to winning a decision until Lima pulled an armbar off in the 3rd

[MMA_scientist]

Yeah, Lima's takedown defense is not good. He has some subs, but he is not a world calibur grappler-- I actually think he is just a purple belt. Askren should dominate on the ground. My concern is that Askren can't finish for shit, and Lima is a finisher standing and on the ground. So Lima has 25 minutes to pull something out.

[poopoo333]

[BIGDAY]

Frikken A!! Was hoping for Askren around -250. Some value on Lima for sure, yet I still see Askren using all those leg kicks the Lima throws to Askren's takedown advantage. Askren should have no problem controling Lima on the ground.

[MMA_scientist]

yeah, he is going to take him down no problem, but I would not bet Askren at that line. Lima has some power standing and is very athletic. Askren can't finish, so Lima will get at least 5 chances standing.

[poopoo333]

Askren is almost bettable for me. Would like to see some props come out, wouldn't mind hedging with Lima ITD if the price is right

[MMA_scientist]

Yeah, at -250, that is getting close to bettable. My issue was with the -375 or whatever it was when it opened.

[Vandelay]

Well I lowered the line for you pp, but it is shooting back up at the moment. Not sure I want to put any more on lima. 250 is a solid bet, maybe ill put another 50 on it but that shouldnt move the line.

[poopoo333]

$250 moved a line on fight day???

[MMA_scientist]

no way, just a coincidence I think.

Money coming in on Lima because the line was off (IMO).

[Vandelay]

of course it did. Anytime the max limit is bet, it will move the line. The line is still soft seeing that there is a huge discrepency between the plus/minus odds.

Plus, its not like bellator is just as big as UFC. The bets are not nearly as high volume on Bellator cards