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Palhares is injured. Buddy Roberts in vs Okami lmfao
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Sup guys.
My bets
3.7U to win 2U Shields over Herman
Actually considering betting more on this because the line's such a fucking steal (-180 right now). People seem to forget this guy's beaten Hendo, Okami, Condit, & Daley, and was not beaten for 6 years. He was shit at Welterweight because that's not his natural weight class. Who the fuck is Ed Herman?
1U to win 1.65U Edgar over Bendo
Betting this because of the great underdog odds. I think Edgar would've taken the last fight if it wasn't for that upkick. Edgar's a fucking beast at rematches. Schooled Penn in the rematch, and knocked out Maynard in #3. At +170 odds this is great. I want him to win since I'm betting money, but fuck me I don't want a Edgar Bendo immediate rematch scenario.
1U to win 2.5U Guillard over Cerrone.
Fucking +250? Are you serious? I know Guillard got his ass choked, but Cerrones ground game isn't on Lau or Miller's level. If this is gonna remain stand up then Guillard's gonna light him up.
Anyways I'm feeling pretty good about my bets.Comment
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I agree with you about that upkick 100 percent. I mentioned it earlier and i totally agree it xhanged the tempo of that fight. Though i will say i would take frankie by decision for the better odds. I dont see him stopping bendo.
You may have a point about shields herman. Herman is pretty solid though. I wouldnt say who is ed herman?
Guillard is good at 250 for sure. He has more power standing and is hard to take down.1 unit = 300 $Comment
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just rewatched the Henderson-Edgar fight. Pple saying Edgar lost the fight bc of the upkick but i dont think so. Edgar likes to dance outside and jump in to strike. that worked well with BJ Penn and Maynard bc those guys dont throw kicks. Ben Henderson throw lots of hard kicks and they mostly landed. so Ben can hit Edgar from the outside and when Edgar closed the distance, Ben's hands are heavy also. So unless Edgar can figure out a way to deal with Henderson's kicks, he's gonna have a hard time winning again. Also he took Ben down quite a few times without much trouble but couldnt keep him down so if he can somehow keep Ben down, he can win there. Ben took Edgar down too but they're both hard to hold down. they both gonna make adjustments, and im aint betting lol.Comment
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^^I think Ben Henderson clearly won the first bet. I chased and had a lot of money on Edgar in that fight and I knew he wasn't going to get the decision at the end. I think Henderson's line at -190 is pretty steep, so possibly will be playing him by decision +118. I can see him getting the stoppage as well, but decision is most likely outcomeComment
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MAIN CARD (Pay-per-view, 10 p.m. ET)- Champ Benson Henderson vs. Frankie Edgar (for lightweight title)
- Donald Cerrone vs. Melvin Guillard
- Jake Shields vs. Ed Herman
- Yushin Okami vs. Buddy Roberts
- Justin Lawrence vs. Max Holloway
PRELIMINARY CARD (FX, 8 p.m. ET)- Dennis Bermudez vs. Tom Hayden
- Jared Hamman vs. Michael Kuiper
- Ken Stone vs. Erik Perez
- Nik Lentz vs. Eiji Mitsuoka
PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook, 7:30 p.m. ET)- Dustin Pague vs. Chico Camus
Lentz/Mitsuoka- I like Lentz in this one. After round 1 it's going to be all Lentz imo. I can see Mitsuoka keeping it a striking match in the first round and getting the better of it, but after Lentz "turns it into a fight" (something he has been doing lately) and starts to grapple, Mitsuoka will slow down and Lentz will do his thing. This is also Mitsuoka's first fight in the states since 2001. I don't expect Lentz to come out anything better than -315 though
Hamman/Kuiper- I like Hamman to win, Kuiper does not have the best T3D and Hamman should be able to put Kuiper on his back, beat him up/wear him out. Kuiper doesn't have the best cardio, but Hamman is one of those guys that can just fight through those "wars" and come out on top. Hamman has a questionable chin, so it wouldn't shock me if Kuiper clips and KOs him.
Okami/Roberts- ...come on son. Roberts is preliminary fighter on FX/Fuel card material and he is fighting a top 5 middleweight on short notice. Roberts has no advantage anywhere in this fight. I don't get how Okami is only -525 here when Davis was -750 to Prado.
Shields/Herman-I originally liked Shields here, and I still think he is going to win but I don't feel too comfortable betting on him in this one. I may have to look at Herman some more, but I honestly feel like Shields is going to be a much better fighter in the UFC at 185. Any thoughts on this fight? I see Shields being able to work his game here..getting TDs and staying glued to Herman. Herman might give Shields backers a few scares imo but Shields should still win
Cerrone/Guillard-Cerrone is better overall. A lot of people are saying Cerrone is just going to take Guillard down and sub him. I don't think this is the case...it's not like Cerrone is a great wrestler that just takes guys down. I think this fight will be a stand up fight and Cerrone will be the more active guy and will beat on Guillard and keep him at a decent distance. There always is that chance Cerrone gets clipped or out boxed..but the outboxed part is doubtful. He was getting outboxed by Paul Kelly and Chris Horodecki...that made me go huge on Nate Diaz against Cerrone..but than Cerrone seemed to patch that hole up in his game against Stephens.
will look at the rest later
but I am leaning plays on Lentz, Okami, Cerrone. I will probably parlay two of them and play one straight. So Okami/Lentz or Cerrone
looking at the rest tomorrowComment
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i like Lentz also. i think he'll win based on cardio alone. the japanese guy is really old too. staying away from the rest of the fights. just dont like the match ups. Also like Ken Stone and Max Holloway. and maybe Chico Camus if he's a huge underdog.Comment
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Justin lawrence should be able to force a standup fight where he has the clear advantage in the striking department. I will be on him. I was also thinkin about a bet on lentz. I think he would go well in a parlay with okami.1 unit = 300 $Comment
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Agree with Trotterz. It's a close fight, but I think edman may be overrating Lawrence's striking due to his experience/credentialsComment
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Exactly, I was not impressed by his striking agains't Cofer the wrestler. He was getting tagged a lot in that fight. As for any other of his fights in TUF, he always tried to wrestle his opponents. He always looks scared to get KO or too tentitive while he is fighting standing. Even agains't Chiesa who is extremely bad standing, Lawrence looked scared standing and was looking to bring the fight to the mat, even thought he had a huge edge in the striking department.
If he can get Holloway down, it's going to be an easy fight for him, but if he can't, I give the edge to Holloway standingComment
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Holloway looked good because his opponent looked so bad.1 unit = 300 $Comment
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he beat Dustin Poirier on the feet forcing Poirier to shoot for td. Holloway stuff the first attemp but got taken down on 2nd attempt. Poirier striking is pretty rough put not that bad a striker. the thing with Hollowa is he likes to throw alot of flying knees. that can get him to be taken down at some point.Comment
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Melvin Guillard vs Donald Cerrone - 3 rounds - UFC 150 propositions Sat 8/11 1103 Guillard/Cerrone goes 3 round distance +175 10:30PM 1104 Fight won't go 3 round distance -245 Ed Herman vs Jake Shields - 3 rounds - UFC 150 propositions Sat 8/11 1203 Herman/Shields goes 3 round distance -210 10:00PM 1204 Fight won't go 3 round distance +160 Buddy Roberts vs Yushin Okami - 3 rounds - UFC 150 propositions Sat 8/11 1303 Roberts/Okami goes 3 round distance -170 9:30PM 1304 Fight won't go 3 round distance +130 Max Holloway vs Justin Lawrence - 3 rounds - UFC 150 propositions Sat 8/11 1403 Holloway/Lawrence goes 3 round distance -155 9:00PM 1404 Fight won't go 3 round distance +115 Comment
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Don't think Cerrone/Guillard will go the distance. I'll play it -245Comment
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