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If in fact Bisping has a 70% chance to win then the line should be -233. So yeah, -170 would be low in that case. But I could always be wrong and Stann could show us just how wrong I am when he blows Bisping to pieces in 30 seconds. We both know how this sport is.
BTW, if you ever want to know what the proper line is for any given percentage, this thing is pretty handy:
I heart cockComment
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Oh, I was wrong then. Thanks guysComment
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Speaking of setting a percentage for each fight and then converting that into a moneyline, does anyone really do that anymore? I used to do it for every fight and that's how I made my betting decisions, as per Performify's betting guide. But now I just look at a line and make a decision on whether or not I think it's a good deal. I get the impression that's how most of us are doing it rather than literally saying, "Well I think he has a 70% chance of winning, but the line says it's only 63%! That line is off!"I heart cockComment
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^^ I never did it that way. I have always thought it was a pretty inexact science. I generally just go with whether I have confidence that they guy will win, and if I am willing to pay the price. It is really the same thing as setting a line and comparing to the existing line, just less exact. I do think it is helpful to have that knowledge, but I have never really felt that anyone could accurately set a winning percentage.2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5uComment
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Yeah, I don't set percentages or anything. I basically just bet bigger on lines I think are way off and if I am in confident in that side to begin with. For example, Daniel Cormier/Josh Barnett. I thought Cormier should have been around -200 and he was at + odds so I put 10 units down on itComment
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i never do the percentage thing and convert it to a line. its how confidence i am on certain fighter to win the fight and how steep the line on him is then decide how much i want to bet. though i never bet on a guy with great odds if i dont think he has at least 1 clear way to win. But i think Stan will edge Bisping standing and Bisping is going to have to take stan down to beat him. Bisping td is overrated tho, imo. From what i remember, he usually able to get guys down after they starting to gas. otherwise, his td isnt that good. I think stan beats him.Comment
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In my opinion, Bisping is the better striker as well as a better grappler..I really think Stann's actual kickboxing ability is very overratedComment
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Probably Svino is the only one here that actually does the math. I just use a calculator on the internet. But for me it is more clear to think in terms of odds... like rather than -200, I think 2:1... But everything everyone is describing is really just lazily converting it and deciding if it is accurate. Saying "I just think about my confidence on fighter and how steep the line on him is then decide if it is worth it" is the exact same thing, just less precise. That said, that's pretty much what I do too.2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5uComment
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I think the time you really need to be careful about percentages is when combining multiple bets on one fight, so you can add percentages together and see what total odds you are effectively betting.Comment
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Demetrious Johnson vs Joseph Benavidez - 5 rounds - UFC 152 propositions Sat 9/22 1003 Johnson/Benavidez goes 5 round distance -300 10:30PM 1004 Fight won't go 5 round distance +220 Sat 9/22 1005 Johnson wins inside distance +1170 10:30PM 1006 Not Johnson inside distance -2510 Sat 9/22 1007 Johnson wins by 5 round decision +310 10:30PM 1008 Not Johnson by 5 round decision -430 Sat 9/22 1009 Benavidez wins inside distance +282 10:30PM 1010 Not Benavidez inside distance -402 Sat 9/22 1011 Benavidez wins by 5 round decision -120 10:30PM 1012 Not Benavidez by 5 round decision -120 Sat 9/22 1013 Johnson/Benavidez draw +6000 10:30PM 1014 Fight not a draw -15000 Brian Stann vs Michael Bisping - 3 rounds - UFC 152 propositions Sat 9/22 1103 Stann/Bisping goes 3 round distance -145 10:30PM 1104 Fight won't go 3 round distance +105 Comment
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