UFC 152

[SPX]

Where are you getting that from? Dana specifically tells Ariel on the video I posted that 152 will be renamed 151.

[poopoo333]

No, it will be called 152. 151 is just...never going to happen.

....

[Ludo]

Where are you getting that from? Dana specifically tells Ariel on the video I posted that 152 will be renamed 151.

In that same conference call I think Dana says 151 will just be the event that never happened. I think the fact that they already blew so much money on an ad campaign for 151 it would just add to the cost to move things up like that.

[SPX]

That does make more sense to me.

[poopoo333]

Charlie Brenneman vs Kyle Noke

I have bet on Charlie Brenneman in every fight since his fight against Amilcar Alves...I really like his style in MMA when it comes to betting because he is one of those grinders and in my opinion he has been undervalued a bit. I've been burned a couple times betting on him as well (I'd bet on him at +250 again against Erick Silva though). In his fight against Noke, it is hard to tell what will happen. Noke is coming down from middleweight for the first time and he will have the size advantage. Both guys like to take their opponents down in their fights as neither of them have ever tried to force a stand up fight in the UFC. Noke has shown to have suspect takedown defense against Andrew Craig, but it is hard to gauge anything from that fight as Noke got injured during the fight (I think I remember this being said, but cannot find out anything talking about it on google) and I am not sure how bad that effected his performance. He also had some knee damage after the Ed Herman fight after he was heel hooked. With two recent injuries that have possibly hindered his training, he may not be 100% going into the Brenneman fight, especially with the added pressure of his weight cutting. As for Brenneman, he has shown some pretty good defensive wrestling against High, Story, and even Hendricks (IIRC...correct me if I'm wrong). On the ground, he does have a tendency to get put in some bad positions (see the Story and Silva fight). It is hard to tell if Brenneman and Noke will cancel each other's grappling games out, but I feel if one guy does get taken down more often than the other, it will be Noke as Brenneman sets a relentless pace and shoots/uses the cage. Noke tends to get the body lock/clinch and trips his opponent to the mat. I am not sure who is the better striker in this fight as I haven't seen both of them strike for any long periods of time. I believe Noke will have the power advantage in his hands while Brenneman has shown some chin issues.

I am picking Brenneman to win a decision with takedowns/pressure against the cage, but I am not as confident in him as I usually am. I don't know how he will handle the size difference (he didn't handle it well against Anthony Johnson) and if they cannot get each other down, I can see Noke tagging Brenneman on the feet. I would bet Brenneman up to -170 or so...but if he is somehow overvalued and Noke is a decent underdog I would take Noke.


Mitch Gagnon vs Walel Watson

Walel Watson is a very tall and rangy bantamweight..he is 5'11 with a 75" reach. Mitch Gagnon is more of the typical bantamweight: a midget...he is 5'6 with a 68" reach. Gagnon is a very aggressive fighter. He is very strong in the clinch and has an aggressive style, aggressive ground and pound, and an aggressive takedown game. There are two things about what I just said that need to be taken into consideration: His aggressiveness and fast pace drains his cardio, in every fight he seems to slow down after the first round of "blowing his load". Also, the opposition of his opponents where he has shown the aggressive takedown game and GNP game hasn't been THAT great. It is hard to tell if he will be able to employ this gameplan against good fighters in the UFC. He didn't show this in the Caraway fight because it was obvious he wanted to keep it on the feet Gagnon's obvious weakness besides his gas tank is his takedown defense and his defensive grappling. Although he is taken down easy, he has a lot of heart and fights hard even when he is evidently exhausted. On the ground, he is active and goes for subs/sub attempts from a dominant position and even while on his back. His problem with being on his back is that he seems to have lots of trouble getting back to his feet..it is hard to tell if this is a skill issue or the result of him being exhausted (or both). As for Walel Watson, his game plan is probably to keep it standing and win a striking match. He will need to use his reach and avoid Gagnon's aggressive clinch/takedown/striking game. Watson's striking defense is not that great either which doesn't bode well for him against Gagnon. Watson has shown poor takedown defense as well...he was easily taken down by Gibson, Jabouin, and (obviously) Dillashaw.

I definitely favor Gagnon in this fight. I believe he will be able to get inside, land some good shots, get takedowns if he wants, and be able to beat Watson up. Watson is a lengthy fighter so there is some worry that he will be able to wrap Gagnon up on the ground and pull off a sneaky choke of some sorts. There is also a worry about Gagnon's conditioning issues, if he fades Watson will be able to capitalize in the later part of the fight and put Gagnon in some bad positions. I will be betting Gagnon up to -160 or so...if he is somehow the underdog I will put a decent sized bet on him.

Seth Baczynski vs Simeon Thoresen

Baczynski is a big welterweight, tends to use his size in his fights and comes forward a lot. He has not shown the best takedown defense. His wins aren't over that high of level opponents; when he loses, they are against opponents that are a step up in competition...and yes, I know he fought Matt Brown. He is a decent striker but does not show anything special. Thoresen is a very aggressive grappler on the mat with solid takedowns. This was not shown as much in his debut UFC fight as it does in his other fights overseas. He is primarily a grappler overall. According to the play by play of UFC on Fuel 2, he was stiff in the stand up department as well as susceptible to strikes in that fight.

I don't want to bet this fight at all. Thoresen should have an advantage on the mat, and he will be OK if he is put on his back due to his active scrambling and submission game. I believe Baczynski will look to keep it on the feet. Thoresen has a lot of unknowns in his game, and I don't think I will bet this at all.

Jimmy Hettes vs Marcus Brimage

Yeah, there is nothing much to say. Jimmy Hettes is going to fuck Marcus Brimage up. He will finish him on the ground or sub him in under 2 rounds. Hettes is an aggressive grappler who is real good...he made a BJJ black belt Nam Phan look horrible on the mat. Brimage's kryptonite in MMA is the ground game and Hettes is going to exploit the shit out of that. I won't be surprised to see Hettes open at -550.

I will bet Hettes all day, even at -600.

Vinny Magalhaes vs Igor Pokrajac

I am hoping Scientist has some input on this one, he knows all the BJJ fags. Vinny is obviously going to be the superior grappler, BJJ is his game. From his recent fights, I see that he doesn't shoot for doubles/singles much, as he prefers to clinch up and trip his opponents to the ground. I am not sure if this is due to his recent fights being in M1 (they have a ring)...thoughts? On the ground, Vinny is very active and comfortable, he shows great sweeps and is great at getting in dominant positions. On the feet, he is very rudimentary and has pretty poor defense. He has a recent TKO win against Zayats, but that was kind of a "fluke"...he was getting beat that entire fight on the feet (and was even getting beat up on the ground) before landing that head kick in round 3. Magalhaes has pretty suspect cardio, but he doesn't give up..he always tries to get the win. This is evident in his last two fights: he was arguably losing the first two rounds of each fight, was noticeable tired, and still got the finish in round 3 in both fights. He also showed conditioning issues against Victor Nemkov, and he was very tired well before he even got the sub (mounted gogoplata). As for Pokrajac, he has a tendency to back his opponents up against the cage, throw combinations and immediately shoot in for a takedown. As long as Igor isn't a total idiot, he will not do this against Magalhaes. Pokrajac does not have the best takedown defense but he is usually able to get back up when he is taken down, and when he does, he tends to throw lots of strikes and "tee off" as Joe Rogan would call it. One tendency he has on the ground is to put himself in poor positions; he did this aganist Bonnar and Matyushenko. When he was on the floor against both of them, he turtled up in each of the fights, which is not a good idea against Magalhaes. Pokrajac is also susceptible to shots in the thai clinch as shown against Bonnar and Maldonado.

I slightly favor Pokrajac, although everything I just said makes it seem like Magalhaes would be the play I am considering. I do not believe Pokrajac is going to instantly be submitted or anything if the fight hits the ground. As long as he fights smart, he will do his best to avoid getting into any serious danger. Pokrajac has the power/striking edge and I believe he will hurt Magalhaes on the feet. I could see this going anyway, however as Pokrajac does seem to fight in close and end up in the clinch a lot, which is where Magalhaes gets his takedowns. I feel that if this goes to round 2 and 3, Pokrajac will be able to stay out of danger on the mat and beat Magalhaes up standing. As for a bet, it depends entirely on the line.

Cub Swanson vs Charles Oliveira

Starting off with Cub Swanson..I feel that he is actually a pretty damn good fighter and he is underrated a lot (by me as well). He has great speed and has some pretty good striking. He shows the ability to get in and out with his strikes and has great footwork. When he lands, he is not standing in front of you after he lands, he gets out of the way. He does seem to telegraph some of his strikes, as he tends to reach and lunge with his punches, but this has never seemed to be a problem for him. Due to his flashy kicks, it puts him off balance at times and it leaves him open for the takedown. Speaking of takedowns, Swanson has not shown the best T3D. However, he has decent takedowns of his own and he threatens with the guillotine a lot, even if it is to just make space and stand back up. He is able to be kept at bay with reach (see Roop fight), but he can adjust in these situations, get inside, and take over. Moving on to Oliveira..we all know his game. He is an aggressive striker with an awesome submission game. He is very active on both the feet and on the ground. Standing, he throws LOTS of kicks (which could be a bad thing for him, will Swanson go for the takedown?) Oliveira is also very active off of his back, he always tries to seep and get submission, he does not seem to slow down at all. He does not have the best T3D, but I don't think it will matter as Swanson will PROBABLY try and keep it standing. Another problem with Oliveira is his tendency to throw flashy kicks and knees which will make him susceptible to TDs. Also, Oliveira tends to walk his opponents down, but with somebody that fights and moves like Swanson, I don't believe that's a good idea.

I slightly favor Oliveira in this fight, I think he is just a little bit better every where. However, I could see Swanson getting a questionable decision as I can see him getting top position in parts of this fight.

Matt Hamill vs Vladimir Matyushenko

I think this is a pretty even match up with question marks for both fighters. They both pack some power in their punches, are both wrestlers, and both seem to have fallen in love with their hands. It will be difficult to predict with the similar skillsets, Matyushenko's age and lack of getting out of round 1 lately, and with Hamill's coming out of retirement.

I will probably not bet this fight, it is too tough to call and has lots of variables.

TJ Grant vs Evan DUnham

TJ Grant looks great at lightweight compared to welterweight. He shows some good grappling and wrestling in his fights at LW, especially against Shane Roller. He was able to take down the wrestler and pretty much dominate. On the sub, Grant hunts for submissions and is not shy to try and grab an arm from guard...he just goes for it. His apparent weakness is his T3D, as he has been taken down and controlled by DHK, Chonan, and Almeida who were at welterweight. It is hard to tell if he will have this same weakness against guys who are not as big. Evan Dunham is a great and diverse striker who mixes his strikes real well. His biggest weakness is the fact that he points his chin straight up in the air while being pressured with power shots and has a tendency to get tagged with overhand punches (see Escudero, Guillard, Griffin fights). Dunham's T3D isn't the best, but he shows a great ability to get up. Regarding this, he does end up on his back a little more often that he should as he is not afraid to grab a submission to give up a position that is superior on the judge's score cards. Dunham has solid takedowns of his own and I will not be surprised to see him initiating any takedowns against Grant.

I favor Dunham in this fight. I think Dunham will be a step above in both grapplng and striking departments and that Dunham will steal the fight with his better striking as well as an added takedown in the fight.


I didn't look at Joe Benavidez/Demetrious Johnson or Lance Benoist/Sean Pierson yet. I am also picking Jones against Belfort for obvious reasons. Jones will take him down easily, just like his brother did at UFC 142

[zY|]

In that same conference call I think Dana says 151 will just be the event that never happened. I think the fact that they already blew so much money on an ad campaign for 151 it would just add to the cost to move things up like that.

I was watching unleashed on fuel last night(don't ask), and they were still showing commercials for jones vs he do at 151. I guess the money is already spent.

[zY|]

Nice breakdown, azn dude.

[poopoo333]

I was watching unleashed on fuel last night(don't ask), and they were still showing commercials for jones vs he do at 151. I guess the money is already spent.

Must be nice to be one of the eight people that have Fuel.

[SPX]

Nice writeup, PP.

-170 for Brenneman seems a little high. I guess I do favor him, but certainly not by that much. Unless something crazy happens with the line, I'll probably just stay away from that one.

I agree about Hettes/Brimage, though not to the tune of -600. Brimage surprised everyone against Maximo Blanco. I'd like to take Hettes in this one, but I'm really hoping to get him at -300 or better.

I'm hoping to get a good line on Igor. Y'all remember when Vinny was 2-4 in MMA and was getting cut by the UFC after losing a decision to Eliot Marshall? I'm not sure if he's that much better now or if he's just been fighting not-so-great fighters. But I do favor Igor here. Line predictions?

[SPX]

Must be nice to be one of the eight people that have Fuel.

Speaking of cable, my TV is not detecting the signal from my cable box anymore. I think I'm just going to go turn that shit in. It's too expensive.

[Mr. IWS]

Awesome info Poopoo!

[poopoo333]

I agree about Hettes/Brimage, though not to the tune of -600. Brimage surprised everyone against Maximo Blanco. I'd like to take Hettes in this one, but I'm really hoping to get him at -300 or better.

I'm hoping to get a good line on Igor. Y'all remember when Vinny was 2-4 in MMA and was getting cut by the UFC after losing a decision to Eliot Marshall? I'm not sure if he's that much better now or if he's just been fighting not-so-great fighters. But I do favor Igor here. Line predictions?

Brimage did surprise everybody against Blanco, but it will be a completely different fight. That was a pure striking match IIRC and it was close at that. Also a very slow paced fight. Basically the exact opposite of what Brimage will be facing against Hettes. Hettes will not be -300 imo, he has crazy hype after the Phan fight combined with his actual skillset match up against Brimage. I really will be surprised to see Hettes open under -450.

Yeah, I believe Igor is going to win. I just don't like his tendency to put himself in bad positions on the mat. I don't think Vinny is that great in MMA...his recent run has been against foreign fighters in M1 that aren't that good...and he doesn't look great in any of them. I won't be surprised to see the line open close, like -120/-110 Igor. It really does depend who opens it though...but Igor as a dog would be great

[MMA_scientist]

Vinny sucks, but he might be able to beat Igor. Definitely won't bet the favorite in that fight. I think Igor will open as a slight fave.

I like Oliviera to beat Swanson. I think he is better standing and on the ground, and he has the takedowns to decide if he wants to go down.

I feel like Dunham should be better than Grant, but Dunham has not been as impressive as he once was. I probably won't bet that one, I just don't trust Dunham any more. He does have a very good solid jj game, but Grant seems a little faster and more explosive to me.

I think Brenneman will get it done, but man did he look horrible against Rumble. Makes me really wary of betting on him.

Hettes has looked like an absolute phenom so far... Brimmage is probably the hardest puncher he has fought yet though. I agree he should dominate, but I think his hype will make his line unbettable. I wouldn't take him past -350 personally.

[edman5555]

Vinny sucks, but he might be able to beat Igor. Definitely won't bet the favorite in that fight. I think Igor will open as a slight fave.

I like Oliviera to beat Swanson. I think he is better standing and on the ground, and he has the takedowns to decide if he wants to go down.

I feel like Dunham should be better than Grant, but Dunham has not been as impressive as he once was. I probably won't bet that one, I just don't trust Dunham any more. He does have a very good solid jj game, but Grant seems a little faster and more explosive to me.

I think Brenneman will get it done, but man did he look horrible against Rumble. Makes me really wary of betting on him.

Hettes has looked like an absolute phenom so far... Brimmage is probably the hardest puncher he has fought yet though. I agree he should dominate, but I think his hype will make his line unbettable. I wouldn't take him past -350 personally.

Rumble is massive and extremely powerful on the feet. He also has good wrestling. That is a tough fight for a wrestler like Brenneman. I think Noke is the better striker. I agree with poopoo about his injuries hindering him and I would have to wonder how that affects his training. His pay rate isn't so high that I would think he is sitting on a pile of cash and would not have to take fights soley for the money. That doesn't mean he isnt healed though. Either way, I think Brennaman could take him down. What I actually worry about is Noke's BJJ. Brennamen would probably be ok. I would look at his fights more to see how well he does defending sub's. I think he got cracked in the Erick Silva fight before getting subbed so I wouldnt hold that against him as much as I would for a straight submission.

Hettes is a badass. If Brimage really does have porous takedown defense he is probably fucked.

I see why you lean towards Pokrajac. Vinny IIRC is not that quick on the feet. I haven't seen him fight in a while though. If he can't take Pokrajac down I would be really suprised if he can outstrike him. Its a tough one to call though because a guy like Vinny can probably slap on a sub pretty well in the heat of things. Better than Pok can defend anyways. That is obvious.

Hamill Versus Matyushenko...: Hamil coming back for a payday? My first reaction was to pick Matyushenko but I think that is only because Hamil looked so disinterested in his last fight. Vladdy is also pretty good. I think they both pack some power in their hands and the wrestling might cancel out. No idea who to pick here. I think it will depend on what kind of Hamil shows up.

[poopoo333]

I would look at his fights more to see how well he does defending sub's. I think he got cracked in the Erick Silva fight before getting subbed so I wouldnt hold that against him as much as I would for a straight submission.

Naw, Brenneman shot, failed, and just froze and let Silva take his back. As for defending subs/bad positions watch Roberts fight (wasn't a big threat but gives an idea) and Story fight (3rd round)