UFC 151

[MMA_scientist]

Yeah I meant Hallman.

I might be over-rating Hieron due to his wins in Bellator. But I agree with SPX that Hawn is pretty good, and would likely beat a lot of UFC WW's (though I actually think Hawn could have been given the Nod in that fight). Ellenberger is a beast though, and there is no real reason why Hieron should be able to beat him (unless he can do the same thing Kampmann did, which he probably can't.) It is all moot though, because Ellenberger is probably going to be -300, which I think is a little too much. I would take him at like -220.

[poopoo333]

Time to bring out my inner noob, what do you guys mean when you're referring to units?

Depends on the person. Some people take a % of their bankroll and label it as their unit (for example, some people would use 2% of their bankroll as a unit), and some people just decide to use a certain amount of money as their unit. It is just easier to track. I think somebody has asked this before and Scientist gave a pretty good explanation.

[poopoo333]

It is all moot though, because Ellenberger is probably going to be -300, which I think is a little too much. I would take him at like -220.

[MMA_scientist]

Time to bring out my inner noob, what do you guys mean when you're referring to units?

I definitely have to concede the fight isn't a lock, I just can't help but feel that the main card is one of the better bets based on the matchups and not overly aggressive odds (SF odds were brutal, most favourites were 4:1 or worse)

a unit is a percentage of your betting bankroll, generally. Usually, serious bettors have a bankroll they build up, which is dedicated to only gambling. Some people just use a static amount, like $100 and don't havea dedicated bankroll. Usually a unit is somewhere between 1% (conservative) and 5% (aggressive) of the overall bankroll. So if you have $1000 to play with, most people would be using a unit of about $20-50. If you have high confidence, you bet more units, so 5u would be $100 if using a 2% unit.

Now my standard spiel on bankroll management: It is probably more important to your overall success long term than being able to pick winners. If you overbet your bankroll, you will be on the sidelines in no time. It feels great to win big chunks, but we all hit rough spots, and you will too. You will lose 5 bets in a row on favorites at some point, it will happen. The only way to ride that out is right sizing your bets.

Ok, off to ignore my own advice now.

[MMA_scientist]

was that already out or did I just guess it?

As you may have noticed, I haven't really been paying attention lately.

[MMA_scientist]

I think it is time for someone to link to SPX's betting primer.

[poopoo333]

was that already out or did I just guess it?

As you may have noticed, I haven't really been paying attention lately.

It came out yesterday. Ellenberger actually opened at -215. And yeah I have noticed. It's fucking annoying because you were one of the members that would do write ups and break shit down. Now it's just me, edman (who posts a sentence in each of 10 straight posts. JK EDMAN I LUV U), and the new guy Cleveland who do that.

[MMA_scientist]

I am actually thinking about getting back in the game. I think i need a hobby, it isnt healthy. The locks parlay has made me lazy too... dont have to pay attention, just collect the (tiny) checks.

The sad thing is that i am going to clear close to my 2010 and 2011 hauls...

[Cleveland]

I will have to watch Yagin/Hominick again. I was there live and all I remember is thinking "Wow, Hominick is getting the fuck beat out of him" and "Great, glad the -600 favorite in my parlay is getting his ass beat by some Mexican midget". Junior Assuncao completely shut Yagin down in their fight with grappling IIRC, can Siver do the same thing/would he even? if he is getting tagged in the stand up? If I end up liking Siver after looking at the fight/looking at what you guys have to say, he might be parlay material for this card.

I think Jay Hieron has a chance to win this if he can survive the onslaught. Ellenberger may smarten up after his last two fights though and not go all out. In the Sanchez fight he would have lost a 5 round fight for sure, he was out of it mid 3rd round. He may have "punched himself out" against Kampmann, but he has always had poor cardio (see the Rocha and Howard fights). My actual prediction for this fight is Ellenberger by TKO but I would not rule out a Hieron decision at all.

Best I can offer is to suggest a look at the Wiman fight. Wiman was on a surge having beaten Nelson, Danzig and C. Miller.

Siver was able to keep him off (Wiman was 5/16 in attempts) and even took him down. He also isn't against fighting to win, which I love if you're in there with a brawler.

He hurt G-sot early so that has to be taken into account, but George couldn't even seem to touch him.

Jake has shown he's gunning to hurt you and will go full berserker if he smells blood. It will likely always be his undoing as you can't unlearn a killer instinct. I still think if he hurts Jay early that it may help wear down enough cardio that even in 3 rounds he still should have an edge.

[poopoo333]

I am actually thinking about getting back in the game. I think i need a hobby, it isnt healthy. The locks parlay has made me lazy too... dont have to pay attention, just collect the (tiny) checks.

The sad thing is that i am going to clear close to my 2010 and 2011 hauls...

I have been taking it a bit more seriously as well lately. Right now I have a browser opened up with every UFC until UFC 155 from UFC 151 and am in the process of looking at all the fights/breaking them down/typing shit on a word document. Also have ONE FC and the upcoming Bellator wikis up as well. I am almost done with 152. Then I will go to Bellator, 151, and ONE FC in that order.

[MMA_scientist]

Copy and paste that here when youre done. Now i dont have to do the woek again...

[poopoo333]

Best I can offer is to suggest a look at the Wiman fight. Wiman was on a surge having beaten Nelson, Danzig and C. Miller.

Siver was able to keep him off (Wiman was 5/16 in attempts) and even took him down. He also isn't against fighting to win, which I love if you're in there with a brawler.

He hurt G-sot early so that has to be taken into account, but George couldn't even seem to touch him.

See, when I first watched Siver/Wiman (I had a decent sized bet on Wiman), I could not believe the decision. I really thought Wiman won without being biased (I even watched it again). I'll watch it within the next couple days again.

And in the G-Sot fight, after the first round, G Sot kept it pretty close in the striking but Siver clearly had a slight edge. I think one of the judges even had it 30-28 for Siver

[poopoo333]

Copy and paste that here when youre done. Now i dont have to do the woek again...

I'm not gonna copy/paste but I plan on posting my little breakdowns on each fight.

And you should do the work too, then we can see where we are missing things and stuff.

[MMA_scientist]

Poopoo, that sounds like a lot of work. Why would you listen to anyone else right now anyway, youre on fire lately

[Cleveland]

a unit is a percentage of your betting bankroll, generally. Usually, serious bettors have a bankroll they build up, which is dedicated to only gambling. Some people just use a static amount, like $100 and don't havea dedicated bankroll. Usually a unit is somewhere between 1% (conservative) and 5% (aggressive) of the overall bankroll. So if you have $1000 to play with, most people would be using a unit of about $20-50. If you have high confidence, you bet more units, so 5u would be $100 if using a 2% unit.
.

Awesome, thank you both.

So I started with $50 and have been typically doing $5 at a time (I put $20 on my SF parlay this weekend because I was really sold). I'm close to $120 up after two events.

The whole point for me in this was to really have some fun but also turn my obsession (MMA) into maybe some free money.

I'm not always a favourites guy either. I already have a straight up bet on Belcher and got E. Silva and Hendricks at even for an upcoming parlay.

I expect to take a few losses, but as I've held off this long on betting, I'm still steadfast in not letting lines get me. I also won't bet on fighters I'm a fan of.