UFC Fight Night 27 8/28 Condit vs Kampmann

[Thewisemann]

Suprises at Cerrones line

[edman5555]

I think cerrone can beat him. He could get outwrestled though.

[poopoo333]

hi edman

[poopoo333]

I bet the Condit/Kampmann fight to go the distance at -145.

[edman5555]

Condit had some good things to say recently. After his loss to hendricks he hired an olympic wrestler to help him with his wrestling. He also kept training inbetween his last camp and this camp so he claims he was already in good shape at the beginning of his camp. Hiw cardio should be top notch and his wrestling should be on point.

[edman5555]

Like he did the first time?

I get how you feel but i think that the first fight was very close and a five rounder favors someone as toughh as him with his kind of cardio. I also think he has been the one doing the best since then. That was also condits first fight in the ufc so the jitters could have gotten to him.

[SPX]

I would agree that Condit has had the higher profile wins, although Kampmann KOing Ellenberger was on par with anything Condit has done in the UFC.

The first fight was super-close, as you say. One of those kinds of fights where you really have no idea how the judges are going to score it. I favor Condit here, but not by a lot. Unless Condit really has improved his wrestling, I could see Kampmann winning a control decision, not too unlike he did with Rick Story. That's basically how he won the first fight, by being a hair more dominant on the ground.

At the current line I have to say it's Kampmann or nothing.

[SPX]

Full odds up. . .

[poopoo333]

I like Elkins, Edwards, and High at the current price. (Notice a trend in these fighters?)

I liked Mizugaki when he was +165... he still may have some value. Perez is good but he has cardio issues and is being overrated by his past few fights against guys who aren't even in the UFC anymore.

Dylan Andrews will win. He is tough enough to survive round 1 and Abedi will go into cardiac arrest and get beat up in rounds 2 and 3. I almost like the over 1.5 in this one at -150, but 2 minutes and 30 seconds is a long time to depend on Abedi to hold up after the 1st round.

Trujillo/Bowling is interesting. Trujillo showed solid TDD against a solid wrestler in Levesseur and was very aggressive in that fight as well. It is safe to say Levesseur's wrestling credentials didn't carry over to MMA well at all so Trujillo's performance against him may not be the best indicator of how this fight will go. I lean Bowling here but he is pretty flaky. At the current price a small play wouldn't be a bad idea imo. He has takedowns of his own and I think if he can work that game he will win.

[SPX]

I might be with you on High. I was thinking about that earlier. I keep thinking Head is not as good as he's lead us to believe. A "regression to the mean" is on the way, as Jordan Breen would say.

You might also be right about Miz. He's always been one of my favorite fighters at BW but he fights a lot of really close fights. Not sure what to think about Perez at this point but Miz as a dog sounds good.

Bowling fucked me pretty good in his rubber match with Taylor Lautner's brother. I think I lost 5u on that one, so I'm pretty iffy about betting on him these days. Not confident, but I'll take Trujillo here.

[poopoo333]

Yeah, James Head may be overrated because of the Ebersole fight, but did you see Ebersole's TD attempts in that fucking fight? Horrible. Jason High should cruise here in my opinion.

Yeah, Miz is always in close fights but he does go for top control which wins fights. Perez's defensive wrestling is a question mark (unless I am missing something from his previous fights/forgot something) so if that's suspect Miz could capitalize and take control if Perez doesn't have the cardio to keep up with grappling.

Yeah, Bowling cost me big in the 2nd fight actually and I bet on Taylor Lautner's brother in the 3rd fight. Bowling has dropped 2 in a row but to pretty legit guys. Tarec is a monster and Njokuani is a great striker imo. Bowling actually won the 1st round against Njokuani too. I'm going to bet Bowling but he is the type of guy I can't lay a 5 unit bet on although at near even money he is a great play.

[mike]

i like bowling too. he throws hard shots n slows down in the later round tho n trillo is hard to finish imo so if he cant finish trillo in the first, he'll probably lose the 3rd.
also like edward line but need to watch more vid on thatch. he has logs of first round finish but how good is he really to be such fav over edwards?

[edman5555]

Bowling did an interview recently where he talked about toning down his brawler style so you might want to search for that and take it into consideration. That said, Abel is a good wrestler and might be able to take him to the ground. He also seems to be pretty quick on the feet, granted he isn't so skilled there but he might have the ability to take it to the ground

[SPX]

That said, Abel is a good wrestler and might be able to take him to the ground.

This is what I'm thinking. Could just end up being three rounds of GnP.

[mike]

Bowling did an interview recently where he talked about toning down his brawler style so you might want to search for that and take it into consideration. That said, Abel is a good wrestler and might be able to take him to the ground. He also seems to be pretty quick on the feet, granted he isn't so skilled there but he might have the ability to take it to the ground

im gonna stay away from this fight lol. I hate to bet on a guy who tends to slow down as the fight goes on vs a guy who is tough to finish.

PP, how do u see the Elkin-Hioki fight go? Kinda leaning Hioki here.