UFC 171: Lawler vs Hendricks

[poopoo333]

Welterweight	Johny Hendricks	vs.	Robbie Lawler				[a]
Welterweight	Carlos Condit	vs.	Tyron Woodley				[b]
Lightweight	Diego Sanchez	vs.	Myles Jury
Welterweight	Jake Shields	vs.	Hector Lombard
Light Heavyweight	Ovince St. Preux	vs.	Nikita Krylov
Welterweight	Kelvin Gastelum	vs.	Rick Story
Women's Bantamweight	Raquel Pennington	vs.	Jessica Andrade
Featherweight	Dennis Bermudez	vs.	Jimy Hettes
Welterweight	Sean Spencer	vs.	Alex Garcia
Lightweight	Renee Forte	vs.	Frank Trevino
Flyweight	Will Campuzano	vs.	Justin Scoggins
Middleweight	Robert McDaniel	vs	Sean Strickland
Featherweight	Daniel Pineda	vs.	Robert Whiteford

[poopoo333]

Woodley +3.5 when it comes out. But then again he might get stopped. Then again he might not. WHO KNOWS?!

Ok for real...I really really really like the over 3.5 rounds on Hendricks/Lawler. It's priced at +120. The fight going the full distance is at +175. I really think this fight goes all 5 but the over 3.5 might be the play for some insurance.

[poopoo333]

[poopoo333]

Leans for plays:

OSP/Jury vs Sanchez over 2.5 rounds parlay
Woodley +3.5 if it is around even money


My plays so far:
Hendricks/Lawler over 3.5 rounds

[edman5555]

No plays so far but i am leaning diego sanchez straight and lombard straight.

Do you think jury can outpoint diego? Imdoubt he knocks him out though i could see him dropping diego the eay diego likes to fight. I am just not sure how jury will handle the pressure diego can bring.

I also dont know how well lombard is handling the 170 pound weight cut. Shields is the last guy on earth i really want to find out against. The only reason i like him is because he is a great grappler in his own right that should be able to stuff shields while he is fresh. If he can sprawl he should be able to brutalize shields standing.

[Mr. IWS]

Ill be on Hendricks for sure, leaning towards Condit as well.

[edman5555]

I wish condit was the dog. I would take him with points in second. I could see him getting the finish and I could see him wearing Woodley out and winning the third round.

[poopoo333]

I think it is likely Woodley wins round 1 and loses 2 and 3. But Condit is a finisher, so it is hard to rule out a Condit stoppage.

[edman5555]

I kinda like Hendricks to beat Lawler as well. Lawler seemed like he gassed pretty hardcore against Rory. I could see Hendricks wrestling really taking over that fight as well. I just put a unit on Diego at +130. I like those odds and I'm surprised he is the dog. The only thing that troubles me is Jury's exceptional performance against Michael Johnson but I think it shouldn't be that big of a deal.

At the time MJ wasn't really hitting his stride like he seems to be now. He was down one round to Danny Castillo before he landed the ko punch, Roller retired right after their fight, and Reza Madadi really handled MJ in their fight with his wrestling. Lauzon is a pretty shitty offensive wrestler ( I give MJ credit for his quality performance in that fight). Tibau was in that fight until his typical slowdown in the second round. I missed the Melvin fight but it looks to me like MJ is steadily improving and really learning how to work his sprawl and brawl game. I bet if him and Jury fought again today it would go differently. In addition to that Jury was able to use his far superior jiu jitsu to hold MJ down after he landed the TD. I don't think he will be able to to that with Diego.

Another thing that I am considering is Jurys ability to fight through all the adversity that a fight with Diego typically brings about for his opponent. I his fight with Mike Ricci it seems like he was really starting to fade towards the end of the fight. Both of them looked really tired frankly. Diegos best round is almost always his third round. By then his opponent is usually worn down. I see Diego really bringing it to him by then. I see Jury having some success in this fight but I am hoping Diego will just be too much for him in the end. Either way I already put money on Diego straight. I will wait to see Diegos line with points. If it looks good enough I will probably hit it pretty hard. If his straight line hits +160 or +170 I will probably through another unit on that. I might just be tempted to go with Diego points because that to me is almost a guarantee. Diegos style usually gives him a round because he is so aggressive even if he is being countered effectively which is an area where I see Jury having some success.

[edman5555]

Bermudez Vs Hettes shold be a really interesting one. I think Hettes could be a tough fight for Bermudez if he can get top position but I could see him having a lot of trouble with that. I remember when Hettes fought Marcus Brimage and he was a huge favorite. Brimage kept that fight standing and won it. I thought he might do that before the fight just do his stocky build and appearance of strength. Bermudez is similar in that regard and he also has a good wrestling background. Standing im not really sure who wins but weve seen Bermudez show some power albeit in the manner of a brawler. I have no idea what Hettes standup looks like.


I am kinda curious to see how Krylov does against St Preux. He'll probably get beaten but I have a funny feeling he might do better than the line indicates. Probably not though

Alex Garcia versus Sean Spencer: Garcia seems to be a BJJ guy according to his UFC Profile. Spencer is a boxer with decent TDD. No idea.

Gastelum vs Story: Story should be a tough fight due to his wrestling + powerful standup + superior experience but Gastelum has looked pretty good so far. I will take Story at close to even odds that I will never get.

Whiteford vs Pineda: No idea, I think whiteford will have some value as the dog though. He is a big strong judo blackbelt that can hit very hard. He held Hettes off for a while so I think he has a shot of holding Pineda off. Pineda is pretty aggressive though so who knows what will happen.

[Luke]

[edman5555]

I find storys line kind of suprising. I guess people expect gastelum to outwrestle him.

[poopoo333]

I think it is pretty crazy too. I think he wins a close fight, but was not expecting so many people to like him in this fight.

[edman5555]

I will probably take story with points and diego with points if i can get them.

[Svino]

Yeah, I came in to see what people thought about Story vs. Gastellum. I was surprised to see Story at +155. Apparently, Gastellum really wanted this fight in particular. He must think he can wrestle up Story like Brenneman did, but I don't know.