UFN 40: Matt Brown vs Erick Silva

[poopoo333]

[edman5555]

I am liking costa with 3.5 points at close to evens. A couple of things:

Larkin has only fought two guys in the ufc that exclusively tried to strike with him. Brad tavares and chris camozzi. Tavares has some decent striking and he beat larkin. Camozzi has shitty striking and he lost to larkin. I had money on larkin innhis fight against camozzi and ill say that larkin made me nervous at some points with his under activity. I read that he has been trying to work on his activity level for this fight. No idea how that will work out.

On costa: he won bronze in the european amateur boxing championships in turkey. He tried to make the olympic team but missed it by a couple of points. This is from his ufc profile.

Heres my theory. If camozzi can tough it out and land shots on larkin shouldnt the striker far superior to camozzi be able to do the same? I read that costa has been training his wrestling quite a bit for this fight. Given that larkin usually needs range to get off on his kicks i think that costa could do very well with a boxing and wrestling gameplan.

Some more about costa. In almost every fight he has had in the ufc they have put him up against someone that has tried to wrestle him. This should be the first fight where its a pure striking battle.

Im not saying costa should be favored to win but i think the line should be closer to even.

[Mr. IWS]

Leaning Silva tonight.

[edman5555]

I think Silva will submit brown. Brown has always had a huge deficiency on the ground and I doubt he has really shored it up that much. I think he has just had favorable matchups combined with some good performances. Stopping Pyle before it hit the ground would be a good example. Silva is a beast on the ground and if he gets Brown there its most likely a wrap. The way he wrapped up that "inverted triangle armbar" on Jason High was amazing. His standup isn't bad either. If he stuns Brown he probably going to go for the sub right away. If he manages to take brown down he can sub him. I don't know what his wrestling is like but its another thing to consider. Lastly if Brown stuns him and follows him to the ground he could end up getting submitted. There are just too many ways to see Brown getting submitted.

Then again Matt Brown might just overwhelm him.

[edman5555]

Wow ok I just watched stun gun vs Silva and they were both gassed after five minutes. Brown should not be a dog.

[edman5555]

Anyone else leaning rafael natal? I think he will have an advantage in the standup. His jiu jitsu is better as well. My main concern is hermans wrestling.

[JimGunn]

I can see the main event going either way. I'm mostly going to live bet this entire card although I have a few small two-fight parlays, mostly on the undercard and main card favorites excluding the main event. I also have a wager on Tumenov and Tumenov by Decision and a handful of props I like including Matt Brown by KO/TKO at +330.

[Svino]

I like some of the main card dogs at their odds, like Costa and Cruickshank.

I've noticed a lot of bettors on the internet are very high on Brown over Silva. I'm not seeing it. I think Silva justifies his line, or at least nearly so. The only people I've seen give Silva any trouble at all are grinding wrestlers, and that's not the style Brown is going to bring. I am concerned about Silva's late fight cardio, but I wouldn't be surprised if we don't get to see it tested. I think Silva finishes him early.

[mike]

I think Silva's striking is overrated. Brown can match him on the feet. I dont know the about the grappling. Silva might be able to take Brown down and sub him there. I put a decent size bet on Brown but he is coming off a bad back injury so not sure how he will show up.

[Luke]

I think Silva torches Brown.

[edman5555]

Wow i was all wrong. My bankroll is down to zero now.

[edman5555]

I had natal, koch, and main even doesnt go the distance.

[mike]

main event did not go the distance, edman

[Luke]

I think Silva torches Brown.

Me = wrong

[Svino]

Well, I should have listened to you about Silva's gas tank. That fight went about how I thought it would for half-a-round and then after that.... it sure as hell didn't.

He was completely done after Brown got up. I actually think the corner should have thrown in the towel; Silva was nothing but a punching bag after that. Apparently he was in pretty bad shape after the fight, too.