UFC 217 Betting Info

[New York Knight]

Georges St-Pierre vs. Michael Bisping statistical breakdown







Takedowns

St-Pierre has stated that Bisping is "terrified" of his wrestling. If Bisping is truly afraid, then his fears are not unreasonable. During his UFC career, St-Pierre has used his takedown game to dominate fights. The former welterweight champion holds the record for most takedowns landed in UFC history with 87, and his takedown accuracy of 73.7 percent is second-best all time. Since being knocked out by Matt Serra in 2007, St-Pierre has landed at least 50 percent of his takedown attempts in each of his past 12 fights. During that same stretch, he averaged 3.89 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time.

The saving grace for Bisping is that he has relatively strong takedown defense. In the UFC he has stopped 65 percent of his opponents' takedown attempts, and he has only been taken down four times in his past seven fights. However, in the 17 fights in which an opponent has attempted to take him down, Bisping has only managed to avoid going to the ground in four of them. For context, Bisping has faced three fighters who average at least three takedowns per 15 minutes: Matt Hamill, CB Dollaway and Chael Sonnen. These three opponents landed 64 percent of their takedown attempts against Bisping and combined to take him down 12 times.

Certainly wrestling will be part of St-Pierre's game plan. It has been a vital element of his offensive attack since he debuted in the UFC in 2004. In order to be successful, Bisping will need to find a way to keep this fight on the feet. If St-Pierre does score takedowns, Bisping will need to avoid damage on the ground and get back to his feet.


Ground striking

Another element of St-Pierre's success is his ability to land meaningful strikes once he takes a fight to the floor. During his UFC career, 36 percent of GSP's significant strikes have come while on the ground, and he has outlanded opponents 449 to 43 in that position. On the other hand, Bisping prefers to do most of his striking on the feet. He has only landed nine percent of his significant strikes while on the ground. Since defeating Jason "Mayhem" Miller in 2011, Bisping has been outlanded on the ground 47 to 23.

Takedowns not only allow St-Pierre to dictate the pace and position of the fight, but they also open up a significant part of his striking offense. If Bisping is able to stop the takedowns, it will hinder his opponent's offense and put him in an advantageous position for offensive striking.


Significant strikes

Bisping holds the record for most significant strikes landed in UFC history with 1,533. For his career, St-Pierre is not far behind with 1,254. However, on a per-minute basis, Bisping has a pretty clear advantage. He lands 4.33 significant strikes per minute, while St-Pierre only lands 3.82. Plus, in his past six fights, Bisping actually increased his rate even more and landed 4.56 per minute.

In an interesting development that could be a problem for St-Pierre, Bisping seems to have found power late in his career. Through his first 24 UFC fights, he scored five knockdowns at a rate of 0.25 per 15 minutes of fight time. In his past three fights alone, Bisping has scored three knockdowns at a rate of 0.84 per 15 minutes. St-Pierre has only been knocked down three times in his UFC career, but he did absorb 240 significant strikes in his past four fights and is coming off a nearly four-year layoff. If this power continues to show and Bisping is able to prevent takedowns, St-Pierre could struggle to say in the fight.


Strikes absorbed

Thanks in part to his takedown ability, St-Pierre does not absorb very many significant strikes. During his UFC career, he has absorbed only 1.43 significant strikes per minute. However, for his past four fights that rate jumped to 2.4. The increase was due mostly to Jake Shields (3.12) and Johny Hendricks (3.4), the only two fighters to land at least three significant strikes per minute against St-Pierre in the promotion.

Bisping has allowed his opponents to land 2.62 significant strikes against him in the UFC. However, that rate has increased dramatically over the course of his past six fights. In his first 21 fights in the UFC, Bisping absorbed 2.39 significant strikes per minute. During his recent six-fight stretch, his opponents have landed 3.2 significant strikes against him on a per-minute basis. Bisping may have the offensive edge in terms of striking, but St-Pierre has proven hard to hit in his UFC run. This could turn out to be an interesting defensive wrinkle on Saturday night. In the past Bisping has needed to be a volume striker to be successful. If St-Pierre is able to prevent that, the fight could swing in his favor.

[New York Knight]

Tapology



M. Bisping 52%

C. Garbrandt 68%

J. Jędrzejczyk 91%

S. Thompson 68%

P. Borrachinha 83%

J. Duffy 73%

W. Harris 82%

O. St. Preux 83%

M. Gall 77%

I. Cutelaba 80%

O. Oliynyk 56%

A. Zahabi 77%

[New York Knight]

UFC 217 predictions: Who will leave the Big Apple with gold?
TheScore



Middleweight Championship

Michael Bisping (20-7 UFC, 30-7)
vs.
Georges St-Pierre (19-2 UFC, 25-2)

It'll take more than a few extra pounds of muscle to keep Bisping pinned to the canvas.

Heart-wrenching as it may be to pick against a bulked-up GSP and his takedown-heavy attack tailor-made for a win on points, the fact remains it's hard for even decorated wrestlers to bring Bisping to the canvas and even harder to hold him there. If the middleweight champ can keep the fight upright, his volume striking should be enough to keep the strap around his waist and make him the only man to have beaten both St-Pierre and Anderson Silva.

THE PICK: Bisping



Bantamweight Championship

Cody Garbrandt (6-0 UFC, 11-0)
vs.
TJ Dillashaw (10-3 UFC, 14-3)

If Garbrandt proved anything in his coup of Dominick Cruz, it's that a simmering grudge can bring out the best in him.

The champ submitted a breakthrough performance after months of jawing with Cruz, riding tight footwork and clean counters to a unanimous decision over a notoriously herky-jerky technician in Cruz. While the comparisons to Cruz may not fully do his style or abilities justice, Dillashaw could very well bring much of the same to the Octagon against his former teammate Saturday, and unless he reverts to his wrestling roots, odds are Garbrandt repeats last year's effort and takes a surefire thriller.

THE PICK: Garbrandt



Strawweight Championship

Joanna Jedrzejczyk (8-0 UFC, 14-0)
vs.
Rose Namajunas (4-2 UFC, 6-3)

Jedrzejczyk has a way of handing her opponents an L before the cage door is even shut, and stoic as Namajunas has looked in the face of her psychological warfare, she won't be playing spoiler come fight night.

"Thug" wears her moniker better than most, but Jedrzejczyk has seen the likes of Claudia Gadelha and Jessica Andrade aim to bully her against the fence and on the canvas, and pulled away with the victory regardless. Look for the Polish queen to stave off Namajunas' takedown attempts, stay on her bicycle, and subject the challenger to a death by a thousand strikes for yet another lopsided decision victory.

THE PICK: Jedrzejczyk



Welterweight

Stephen Thompson (8-2-1 UFC, 13-2-1)
vs.
Jorge Masvidal (9-5 UFC, 32-12)

How do you beat a striker whose success depends on maintaining his distance?

You take away his space.

Saturday's tilt will mark Masvidal's first against a karate stylist of the unpredictable Thompson's ilk, but he proved he can hang with rangier strikers in his statement win over lethal kickboxer Donald Cerrone. If the Strikeforce alum can cut off the cage and keep Thompson from setting his feet - thereby nullifying the karateka's deep bag of kicks - he should find a home for his mitts with regularity en route to a W.

THE PICK: Masvidal



Middleweight

Johny Hendricks (13-7 UFC, 18-7)
vs.
Paulo Borrachinha (2-0 UFC, 10-0)

How the mighty have fallen.

A move up to middleweight hasn't cured Hendricks' longstanding bout with listlessness, which spells nothing but doom against an archetypal frontrunner in Borrachinha. A move to Jackson's MMA may bring out the tactician in the former welterweight champ, but his recent tape doesn't inspire much confidence in his ability to weather the typhoon his foe will unleash as soon as the ref kicks things off.

Borrachinha by early knockout.

THE PICK: Borrachinha



Featured Preliminary Bout

Lightweight

James Vick (7-1 UFC, 11-1)
vs.
Joe Duffy (4-1 UFC, 16-2)

In a veritable coin toss of a matchup, it's the bigger man who'll get his hand raised.

What Vick might give up to Duffy in cleanliness in the striking department, he makes up for in length and his first-rate grappling. The lanky lightweight isn't one to shy away from trading leather, but he'd be wise to bring this one to the mat at the first opportunity, as Duffy boasts crisp boxing. Once on the canvas, it shouldn't be long before Vick puts the squeeze on "Irish Joe" for his third straight stoppage win.

THE PICK: Vick


The Rest

Walt Harris
Ovince Saint Preux
Mickey Gall
Aleksei Oleinik
Ion Cutelaba
Aiemann Zahabi

[New York Knight]

UFC 217 – Official Preview and Predictions
Sports Break



Fox Sports 1 Prelims

Randy Brown (-140) vs. Mickey Gall (+110)

The man who shut down CM Punk in his MMA debut and then submitted Sage Northcutt will continue the undefeated start to his career. Gall by submission.


Ion Cutelaba (-450) vs. Michael Oleksiejczuk (+325)

Cutelaba may still be just 23-years-old, but he already has 17 professional fights under his belt (13-3, with one No Content). He’s taking on fellow-youngster Oleksiejczuk (22), who sports a similar record of 12-2. Cutelaba has only won two of his last four fights, while Oleksiejczuk is on a nine fight win streak. We expect him to make it ten in his UFC debute. Oleksiejczuk by knockout.


Walt Harris (-325) vs. Mark Goodbeer (+250)

There isn’t much better than watching two gigantic men slug it out in the octagon. Harris (6’5″, 250-lbs) and Goodbeer (6’4″, 242-lbs) are two huge dudes who specialize in throwing haymakers. Of their combined 22 wins, 19 have come by knockout. Which one will come out on top in this fight? We flipped a coin and it landed on Goodbeer, the slightly more consistent of the two. Goodbeer by knockout


Joseph Duffy (-165) vs. James Vick (+135)

The main event of the prelims should be a good one, as neither Vick nor Duffy are used to losing, with respective records of 11-1 and 17-2. They both have a tendency to notch victories by making other fighters tap, which means the fight could go one of two ways — either a technical grappling spectacle or a stand up war where neither fighter wants to make a mistake on the ground. Regardless of how it goes down, we think Duffy comes out on top. Duffy via decision.


Main Card

Paulo Borrachinha (-225) vs. Johny Hendricks (+175)

Johny Hendricks really needs this fight. His career may depend on it. It wasn’t that long ago that “Big Rig” got two cracks at the welterweight title, losing a decision to Georges St-Pierre (which many people think he really won) and then capturing the vacant championship by beating Robbie Lawler in March 2014. He lost a rematch with Lawler ten months later and things have been bad ever since.

Hendricks always struggled to make 170-pounds, but after losing the title to Lawler things got even worse (expect for a win over Matt Brown at UFC 185). He picked up three straight losses (to Stephen Thompson, Kevin Gastelum, and Neil Magny). Even worse, he failed to make weight for two of those three fights. The UFC basically forced him to move up to 185-pounds, where he picked up a win over Hector Lombard, but then he again failed to make weight against Tim Boetsch and lost by TKO. If he loses this fight or fails to make weight again, he’l likely be cut.

Across the cage stands Paulo Borrachinha, an undefeated (10-0) 26-year-old from Brazil. He’s bigger than Hendricks and has a longer reach, so it’s easy to see why he’s been installed as a favorite here. This one could be a slugfest, as Borrachinha has ended nine of his career ten fights by knockout or stoppage (the tenth was a submission victory). Likewise, Hendricks is known for two things: his strong wrestling background and a dynamite left hand that’s floored many opponents in the past.

Call me crazy, but I have a feeling that a desperate Hendricks will come into this one very prepared and focused. With so many weight cutting mishaps in his recent history, he’s going to nail this one and fight with a hunger we haven’t seen from him in a while. Plus, it’s boring to always pick the favorites.

Prediction: Hendricks via knockout.


Stephen Thompson (-175) vs. Jorge Masvidal (+145)

Frankly, I’m not sure why these odds are so close. Stephen Thompson may not have won his last two fights, but they were closely fought bouts with Welterweight champ Tyron Woodley. And when I say “close fights,”I mean they were really f**king close! The first was scored a majority draw (meaning two judges scored the fight a draw and the third had Woodley winning) and the second was a majority decision (meaning two judges scored it 48-47 for Woodley, and the third scored it a draw). Like I said, it was a pair of super close fights, both being very hard to score.

Before those two contests, Wonderboy was 13-1, suffering just a single loss to Matt Brown back in 2012. He’s still the No. 2 ranked welterweight in the world and definitely wants another crack at the title. In contrast, Masvidal has lost of his last eight fights dating back to 2015, including disappointing bouts with Al Iaquinta, Benson Henderson, Lorenz Larkin, and Damian Maia. Somehow, he’s still the No. 4 ranked welterweight in the official UFC rankings, but I think there’s actually a much larger gap between the two.

Prediction: Thompson via decision.


Joanna Jedrzejczyk (-500) vs. Rose Namajunas (+350)

According to the bookies, this is the most lopsided fight of the night. If you’ve ever watched Joanna Violence do her thing, you’ll understand why. She’s a perfect 14-0 in MMA, not to mention her stellar records in kickboxing (27-3) and amateur Muau Thai (37-3). The 30-year-old Polish fighter is one of the best in the world, male or female, at any weight class. She’s already defended the Women’s Strawweight title on five separate occasions, and will be looking to make it six on Saturday.

Rose Namajunas, on the other hand, has actually fought for this title before. A bought with Carla Esparza in December 2014 actually decided the inaugural women’s strawweight champion, before Joanna Champion took over the division. Since then, Namajunas has knocked off UFC golden girls Paige VanZant and Michelle Waterson and worked herself back into title contention, despite a controversial split decision loss to Karolina Kowalkiewicz in July 2016. She has one of the toughest tasks in all of MMA ahead of her at UFC 217, and I don’t see her scoring the upset.

Prediction: Jedrzejczyk via decision.


Cody Grabrandt (-185) vs. T.J. Dillashaw (+150)

Cody “No Love” Garbrandt has risen up the UFC ranks quickly and violently. His perfect 11-0 record comes with nine stoppages, all due to punches. He beat one of the very best in the game when he notched a decision victory over Dominick Cruz at UFC 207 to capture the Bantamweight championship. It’s been ten months, but Garbrandt will finally defend the title after finally getting over a back injury that prevented this fight from happening sooner.

Dillashaw is a former champ at 135-lbs himself, and is itching to get another crack at the belt he lost to Dominick Cruz in early 2016. An interesting subplot to this fight is that Garbrandt and Dillashaw used to be teammates at Team Alpha Male, an MMA training gym founded by Uriah Faber. Dillashaw left the camp in 2015, and the divorce has led to a fair share of insults traded among to two.

The odds are close, and with Garbrandt returning from injury, I’m going to take a risk and put the money on the underdog.

Prediction: Dillashaw via submission.


Georges St-Pierre (-125) vs. Michael Bisping (+105)

If this fight had taken place before GSP decided to take his break from competing, it wouldn’t even be close. I’d hesitate to even offer Bisping a puncher’s chance, really. But today, in 2017, things are a bit different. St-Pierre is 36-years-old and hasn’t had a competitive fight in four years. He was one of the greatest fighters of all-time back in his prime, but logic says his prime has probably been left behind somewhere.

On the other hand, Bisping is no spring chicken either. He’s 38 and like I mentioned in the intro, an unlikely champion. Since his surprise upset of Rockhold in June 2016, he’s only defended the Middleweight title once — a decision victory over old foe Dan Henderson at UFC 204. Two things to note about that; the fight was a year ago and Hendo was 47 at the time.

There are a lot of unknowns in this bout. Can Bisping cling to his championship moment in the twilight of his career? Can GSP resurrect his dominance in a new weight class? Most importantly, does anyone still care after all these years? I think they do, and I also think that GSP will have enough to grind out a win.

Prediction: St-Pierre via TKO.

[New York Knight]

Diggin’ Deep on UFC 217 - Main card preview
Dayne Fox - Bloody Elbow



Stephen Thompson (13-2-1) vs. Jorge Masvidal (32-12), Welterweight

Coming out on the losing end of one of the worst title fights in the UFC’s history, Thompson is looking to not only come out of the evening with a win, but reestablishing his reputation as one of the most exciting welterweights on the planet. Win or lose, I struggle to see him not regaining that reputation against Masvidal.

Masvidal appeared to have his breakthrough moment when he dispatched of a streaking Donald Cerrone on FOX earlier this year, only to come up short against Demian Maia in his next contest for a crack at Tyron Woodley. One of the most well-rounded fighters in the sport, it’s difficult to pinpoint exactly where Masvidal’s greatest strength is. Then again, he uses his all-around skills to his advantage by taking the fight where his opponent is weakest. Case in point: his pressure on Cerrone prevented Cowboy from getting his kick-heavy offense going. He’s also capable of hanging back to strike from the outside or employing a takedown-heavy attack.

Most of the praise going towards Masvidal of late has been in regards to his boxing with the Cerrone contest being pointed to. He maintains good positioning, tight technique, and possesses underrated power. What has gotten Masvidal into trouble in the past has been his willingness to play it safe, believing he is winning the fight through the first two rounds and coasting in the last round. He has been motivated in recent contests against a higher level of competition, largely rendering this issue to be a moot point.

Thompson should still regarded as one of the most dangerous KO specialists regardless of his inability to hurt Woodley in their two contests. His kickboxing background developed his extensive knowledge of angles and distance, allowing him to render Rory MacDonald’s attack largely ineffective despite the Canadian possessing a slight reach advantage. Thompson keeps a jab out there with regularity, using it to set up his dangerous kicking arsenal. It’s doubtful there is a kick out there he is incapable of throwing… and landing. His question mark kick and round kicks are the most common, but he can throw spinning techniques just as effectively. Thompson isn’t seen as a clinch fighter, but he did outmuscle Johny Hendricks from there, showing more strength than most thought he possessed.

The ground game is a bit of a wild card. Masvidal is viewed as the better wrestler, but that’s largely due to his offensive proclivities. He hasn’t resorted to going to the ground very often in recent years, scoring no more than two takedowns in a contest since 2013. However, Thompson has shown brilliant takedown defense ever since his loss to Matt Brown in 2012 as Woodley has been the only one to get him down. Masvidal is probably the better grappler as well, but Thompson has never been submitted, showing slick defensive chops. Thompson has never made a serious effort to submit an opponent, but he has shown some deadly ground-and-pound if he gets the proper position.

It’s hard not to be excited about this fight. Both are exceptionally durable – Thompson has never been finished while Masvidal owns a single KO/TKO loss in his career – and both have exceptional knowledge of striking technique. Neither possesses a major advantage in athletic ability either. Thompson has more power while Masvidal has more experience in an MMA cage. I can justify either one winning it a few various ways logically. So… who wins? I’ll go with Thompson, expecting this to be a standup battle with his kickboxing experience being the difference maker.

Thompson via decision



Johny Hendricks (18-7) vs. Paulo Borrachinha (10-0), Middleweight

Four years ago, Hendricks fought Georges St. Pierre tooth and nail in one of the greatest title fights in the UFC’s history. Though he didn’t get his hand raised, the majority of fans and analysts believed he deserved the win and subsequently took the belt when he defeated Robbie Lawler in another instant classic. It appeared Hendricks was going to carry the welterweight belt for a long time, ala the man he damn-near ripped the belt from. Now? He’s fighting at middleweight against a young Brazilian who has made two UFC appearances against lesser competition.

Yes, Hendricks’ fall has been swift and hard, but it has also been his own doing. Undisciplined weight management pushed him up to middleweight and a fallout with his camp, Team Takedown, preceded his fall from grace. Hendricks tried to manage his own camp in the process, finding minimal success. Taking responsibility for his career, Hendricks recently moved to Team Jackson-Wink with hopes of turning himself around.

Hendricks’ power hasn’t been seen for quite a while, last securing a finish back in 2012. When he was putting together lengthy punch-kick combinations during his title fights, it wasn’t as big of a worry as it made it difficult to outpoint the champion. However, falling out of shape sapped his gas tank and he began to look lethargic. Aware of this himself, he has relied heavily on his NCAA wrestling champion pedigree in recent fights, resorting to lay-and-prey once the fight hits the ground. Granted, his striking success has been limited by his lack of size at middleweight, but that doesn’t make up for all of his recent shortcomings.

Though there isn’t nearly as much footage of Borrachinha out there as there is on Hendricks, but what there is clearly shows a highly talented striker. He’s big too, clocking in at 6'1" with a very thick frame. Kicks to mid-section and legs are his choice of attack from the outside – with the occasional jab mixed in there -- while resorting to winging powerful haymakers in closer quarters. Borrachinha has a great feel for spacing, throwing short elbows when unable to get the proper angle on a punch in addition to an improving clinch game. His wrestling is still developing, though he has shown a natural feel for takedowns and the ability to clamber back to his feet quickly should he be the one taken down.

The UFC sees Borrachinha as a future title contender and it isn’t difficult to see why. As Hendricks’ career has spiraled, the UFC is trying to get what value is still left in his name to put Borrachinha over. Hendricks realizes this and is trying to reverse that narrative. Combining Hendricks’ spiral with the size disadvantage he’ll have, it’s easy to see where Borrachinha is the favorite. However, Jackson-Wink have a history of turning around slumping fighters’ careers and Borrachinha has never faced anyone with near the wrestling credentials of Hendricks. Hendricks extends his relevance a bit longer with the upset.

Hendricks via decision

[New York Knight]

Diggin’ Deep on UFC 217 - FS1 prelims preview
Dayne Fox - Bloody Elbow



James Vick (11-1) vs. Joseph Duffy (16-2), Lightweight

How deep is the lightweight division? A 7-1 record in the UFC isn’t even good enough for Vick to enter the official UFC rankings. Contrast that with light heavyweight where a 3-4 mark is good enough to put Jan Blachowicz in the top fifteen. As for Duffy, he owns a victory over the champion of the division. I’m not talking about Tony Ferguson. I’m talking about Conor McGregor.

I’m sure all of you who remember Duffy’s early UFC fights got sick of hearing about Duffy being the last man to defeat McGregor – thank you Nate Diaz for ending the incessant talks – but it was an effective statement to emphasize just how good Duffy could eventually become. The other thing that was constantly blared in our ears was how Duffy took a brief hiatus to ply his trade as a professional boxer. That experience improved his level of footwork and head movement to close some of his defensive holes. And of course, he puts together sound punching combinations, a stiff jab, and take good angle entries. What else would you expect from a former boxer? Opponents are aware of this too, so Duffy has surprised at times by mixing in a bevy of kicks to throw them off.

Admittedly, Vick isn’t as technically proficient as Duffy in his striking. Then again, few are and it doesn’t mean Vick doesn’t have any advantages in the standup. At 6'3", it’s hard to find a lightweight who can match Vick’s size. His 76" reach doesn’t jump out quite as much as his height, but he has been improving his ability to use his length with every fight. He still leaves his chin out there to be touched up by someone with a firm understanding in angles – i.e. Duffy – but it isn’t quite as hittable as it used to be.

There have been times where both have been exposed in the wrestling department by their opponents, though there are some caveats with that. Vick often allows his opponent to shoot in on him in hopes of sinking in his patented guillotine choke, a maneuver he has pulled off with great success on multiple occasions. He also implements a step-in knee from time to time to mix it up and is relatively quick to get back to his feet when taken down. Duffy’s UFC loss to Dustin Poirier came when he couldn’t stop Poirier from getting him to the ground. He has made great strides in that department since that contest, shutting down noted wrestler Reza Madadi’s offense in his last contest. Duffy’s submission abilities have been overlooked after his performance against Poirier, but he’s one of the more underrated scramblers and submission artists in the sport.

Vick’s opportunism always gives him a chance, but I can’t help but recall his performance against Beneil Dariush. Dariush had his way with the Texan on the feet, finding every opening and piecing him up. Duffy should be able to do the exact same thing. I’d imagine Vick has learned some things from that experience, but that was about as one-sided performance as I can remember in recent years amongst notable fighters. Has he made up that much ground? I don’t think so.

Duffy via submission of RD2



Walt Harris (10-6) vs. Mark Godbeer (12-3), Heavyweight

We were supposed to get this last month only for Derrick Lewis’ back to flare up and cause the big man to pull out. Rather than have Lewis’ opponent – Fabricio Werdum -- fall out as well, Harris stepped in, abandoning Godbeer in the process. When Harris emerged from his loss virtually unscathed physically, this contest was made once again… and I went digging for what I wrote about this fight last month while making a few minor changes.

An argument could be made that Harris is the most naturally gifted big man on the roster this side of Francis Ngannou. A former collegiate basketball player, Harris has finally begun to put the footwork he learned on the hardcourt to good use in the cage. Using angles and avoiding the pocket outside of his explosive attacks, he has begun taking advantage of his athletic gifts and is on the verge of emerging as a potential action fighter in a division badly in need of fresh blood. Though 34-years old, Harris is still relatively youthful in the land of dinosaurs and is still improving. However, he also showed his inexperience on the ground against Werdum. Lucky for him, Godbeer doesn’t ever go to the ground.

Godbeer is well-conditioned himself – for a heavyweight -- but no one will mistake him for an extraordinary athlete. He is fortunate enough to largely match Harris in the height and reach department and should have the edge in the pocket. There’s nothing fancy about Godbeer’s punching; it’s just basic combinations that opponents can figure out before too long. Still, Godbeer hits hard enough that opponents can’t just stand in the in front of him and hope they can eventually land a big shot on the chinny big man.

Neither man has successfully executed a takedown in their UFC tenures. However, if Harris were to ever do so, this would be the contest to test his wrestling prowess as Godbeer is notoriously poor at stopping opposing takedowns. That may be a wise option for Harris should Godbeer insist in fighting in the pocket as Harris’ chin hasn’t been ironclad either. Regardless, I liked the steady improvements Harris had shown prior to the Werdum contest and expect to see more of the same here. Given the durability issues of both, don’t count on this one lasting too long.

Harris via KO of RD2



Ovince Saint Preux (21-10) vs. Corey Anderson (10-3), Light Heavyweight

With Patrick Cummins pulling out due to a staph infection, Saint Preux offered to step in on short notice in hopes of picking up his third consecutive win after dropping three in a row. Regardless of who wins, the winner is a strong contender to earn a crack at Daniel Cormier down the line… provided Cormier doesn’t surrender his title any time soon.

Saint Preux already received a crack at a belt upon one of the occasions Cormier was supposed to clash with eternal rival Jon Jones only to for the current champ to suffer an injury. Saint Preux managed to go the distance with Jones, but it was also arguably Jones’ worst performance since he his early years in the UFC. Nonetheless, Saint Preux has never faced Cormier and is one of the more recognizable names at 205.

Employing a kick-heavy approach, Saint Preux tends to get in trouble if he stays in close range for too long. Yes, he has very heavy hands and may be the most explosive athlete in the division, allowing him to score KO’s out of nowhere with his sudden burst. Nonetheless, his boxing in the pocket has never progressed to anything effective outside of single shots from range, assisted by his 82" reach to cover ground quickly. His ability to fight out of either stance and throw with either leg is another obstacle opponents must overcome.

Anderson is a far more traditional striker, putting together fundamental boxing combinations, crisp footwork, and a developing jab. He can get overexcited at times and begin looking exclusively for the kill shot, leaving himself wide open for a slick counter puncher – such as Saint Preux – to capitalize on his mistakes. Provided he stays disciplined, Anderson pushes a fast pace that most light heavyweights can’t match.

The heart and soul of Anderson’s game remains his wrestling. Armed with powerful double-legs and the ability to disguise his entries, Anderson has been able to get the fight to the ground when he wants. Well… up until his last performance against Jimi Manuwa. That highlighted one of the issues with Anderson; either he’s just in wrestling mode or striking mode without the ability to switch between the two. When he does get the fight to the ground, his ground-and-pound has looked better with each successive performance.

Saint Preux’s wrestling doesn’t have the same pedigree as Anderson, but he’s more capable of getting a takedown if he really wants one… at least early in the fight. Saint Preux tends to exhaust himself in a hurry if he emphasizes a ground game, part of the reason he doesn’t always employ that strategy. He’s also become the premier specialist for the Von Flue choke to the point many want to dub it the Von Preux choke. After three wins via the rare choke, I can’t say I’d argue that.

I’ll admit Saint Preux has looked good in his last two contests, but Rogerio de Lima and a late notice Yushin Okami are hardly the type of wins that scream future champion. Anderson has yet to pick up a signature win – though his decision loss to Shogun Rua is debatable – falling short every time he gets the opportunity to add a major scalp. This feels like his time. He has a full camp and an opponent who tends to fade when forced to wrestle for extended periods. He’ll need to stay disciplined to avoid Saint Preux turning out his lights, but I like his chances.

Anderson via decision



Randy Brown (9-2) vs. Mickey Gall (4-0), Welterweight

The first two products of Lookin’ for a Fight meet to prove who is superior! OK, so there isn’t a whole lot of hype behind this contest, but at least it is a contest that makes sense for both of the raw prospects.

Gall was an absolute unknown when he joined the UFC, owning one professional fight over another debuting fighter. Three fights later and we still don’t know much about him as Mike Jackson, CM Punk, and Sage Northcutt aren’t exactly your typical UFC competition that will answer questions about your abilities. For context, Jackson and Punk were making their professional debuts against Gall. Nonetheless, Gall has shown natural athleticism, a high-level fight IQ for someone with his experience, and brilliant grappling prowess. He knows his grappling is his strongest attribute and wastes little time getting the fight where he’s best using a growing array of traditional wrestling takedowns and trips.

While Brown is Gall’s most proven competition, he’s still a raw product himself. He has proven to be an efficient striker, recently developing a jab to better capitalize on his 78" reach. A strong clinch game has been another advancement in his progress, leveraging his large frame to dig knees in deep. Being able to compete in those areas has only enhanced his mid-range boxing, long his preferred fighting distance thanks to his natural power and decent footwork.

What this fight boils down to is who can best survive in the other’s world. Gall looked very uncomfortable on his feet against Northcutt with his chin leading the way with every strike. Brown hasn’t looked great on the ground, but he has shown improved submission defense, some slick submission abilities of his own, and sound takedown defense. However, Brown struggled against an aggressive wrestler in Mike Graves. Gall isn’t the wrestler Graves is, but he has great killer instinct is relentless in his pursuit of the finish.

Though hardly confident in my pick, I’m going with Brown. Gall’s lack of basic standup defense really frightens me away from taking the grappler. I know Gall has been away for almost a year to hone his craft, but Brown’s been gone for quite a while too and has a lot of room for improvement himself. While I expect it to be fun, I also expect it to be sloppy.

Brown via TKO of RD2

[New York Knight]

[New York Knight]

Bettors Fading GSP In His Return At UFC 217
Dan McGuire - Sports Insights



Thirty-six-year-old Georges St-Pierre (25-2 MMA, 19-2 UFC), one of the greatest fighters of our generation, will mark his return on Saturday night at UFC 217 in New York City for a shot at the middleweight belt against Michael Bisping (30-7 MMA, 20-7 UFC).

St-Pierre, often referred to as GSP, last fought nearly four years ago at UFC 167. After beating Johny Hendricks as a split-decision winner (48-47, 47-48, 48-47) in that bout on November 16, 2013, GSP decided to retire. He had a winning streak of 12 matches and had just retained the UFC welterweight belt at the time, but many agreed that his body had taken a toll. GSP had also grown tired of the constant steroid abusers in the sport, something which continues to taint the UFC and MMA. As a tactical fighter, the preparation and pressure of big fights also played a big role in his decision to leave.

For his return at UFC 217, GSP opened -150 against Michael Bisping back in early August and the line initially rose to -155. However, his odds have steadily dropped over that time as public bettors and bigger money has taken Bisping to win.

At Pinnacle sportsbook, GSP isn’t even the favorite anymore. He’s now listed at -101 with Bisping the favorite at -111 odds. The drastic line movement has helped books balance their action though. As you can see from the line history below, more bettors are willing to take GSP now that the odds have dropped. We saw similar 50-cent line movement on the Dodgers for World Series Game 7, but we know how that ended up.

If you made a bet against GSP anytime after April 7, 2007, you lost. But this is obviously a much different scenario having gone four years without fighting. Public bettors like to look to recent results when making a wager, and those just don’t exist for GSP. Hence, public bettors have been loading up on Bisping over the last couple months to sway the odds. With the fight expected to go the distance, there may be some value created on GSP now that the line has shifted.


GSP/Bisping is a rare matchup where the public has pounded the underdog and caused line movement that way.

[New York Knight]

The Insider’s Breakdown and fight picks for UFC 217
MMA Insider



Michael Bisping vs George St-Pierre

Whatever the rights or wrongs of this match-up it is certainly intriguing. I’ve heard Chael Sonnen say he’s trained with both and he thinks GSP is the Stronger of the two. I don’t believe this for a second Bisping is all heart and i think GSP will struggle to get him to the deck. I’m leaning towards a Bisping decision 3/2.

Verdict: Bisping by decision


Cody Garbrandt vs TJ Dillashaw

There is more fucking heat between these two guy’s than any in recent memory. The former Team Alpha Male gym buddies are still arguing over the circumstances of Dillashaw’s leaving that camp. Cody is the superior striker but if it goes ground and pound TJ has a the advantage. Cody is all fired up for this but he’ll need to control the emotions and release the energy in controlled manner….over 5 rounds i suspect.

Verdict: Cody Garbrandt by decision


Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs Rose Namajunas

Another title fight in the female straw-weight division. This is my FIGHT of THE NIGHT. I think we have a cracking contest on the cards here. Joanna absolutely destroyed Jessica Andrade in her last title defence and for me her performance in that fight was performance of the year so far. So she should beat Thug Rose easy right?

Well i think this is where an upset might happen. Rose is growing in stature all the time and i think she may be getting this shot at just the right time. Joanna is many things but she is not a great finished. technically beautiful yes. Finisher no. Rose Namajanus is the type of fighter you need to finish when the opportunity arises or she’ll come back and finish you. I’m plumping for and upset in this one.

Verdict: Rose Namajanus by submission round 4


Thompson Vs Masvidal

Very interesting fight with both Fighters coming off a loss. In Wonder boy’s case a draw and a loss. Every time I am about to jump on the Masvidal bandwagon he suffers a loss. Last time out i thought he was unlucky not to get the decision against Demian Maia but for me he under performed on the night.

There is no questioning Wonderboy Thompson’s ability but what i do question is the beatings he took in those title fights he had against Tyron Woodley. Especially the first one. I suspect they have taken their toll more than we think. I’m gonna go for the beast Masividal in this one.

Verdict: Masvidal by TKO in round 2


Johnny Hendricks vs Paula Cost Borrachinha

As ever Hendricks conditioning is the question mark. He has had so much trouble making weight in recent times that it really is a factor in weighing up his chances. He looks and sounds like a man that is in great condition but we really won’t know until he does the final purge in the last 24 hours. Paulo has won his last two fight by TKO but Johnny is a huge step up in class and i don’t see him knocking him out. I’m going with the Bigg Rigg in this one in a possible fight of the night scenario

Verdict: Hendricks by decision

[New York Knight]

All 24 fighters made weight without issue.

[New York Knight]

Fighter on Fighter: Breaking down UFC 217’s Michael Bisping
Andrew Richardson - MMA Mania



Striking

Bisping really stands out as one of the first to rely on such a high-volume of strikes. He breaks down his foe with constant work, forcing them to spend energy just trying to keep up with him. Before long, that’s impossible, and Bisping is able to make up for any technical or athletic disadvantages with pure numbers. On the whole, Bisping relies on his boxing more than anything else. He's a fairly long and tall Middleweight who makes good use of that range, peppering his opponents from the outside and keeping them on the end of his punches. A large part of this is because of his footwork, as Bisping does a nice job staying light on his feet and preventing his foe from closing the distance into the clinch easily.

Bisping relies heavily on his straight punches. He does a nice job snapping his opponent's head back with the jab, and Bisping will follow up with a solid cross as well. This is really the core of Bisping's game -- he generally finds good success on the feet when sticking to simple combinations of long punches. Simple though they may be, Bisping's feints and activity make these combinations effective.

Bisping simply never stops poking at his opponent with these strikes.

If all of that seems pretty simple, it's because Bisping's boxing game isn't really that complicated. Bisping is just remarkably consistent about maintaining his movements, feints and form.

Composure was precisely what allowed Bisping to out-strike Anderson Silva for a vast majority of the fight. Silva tried to draw Bisping in and make him sloppy, but Bisping stayed disciplined and kept himself safe from most of the Brazilian's counter strikes.

As Silva failed to land, he became the one getting a bit wild, and that's when Bisping did his best work. Early in the fight, Bisping managed to rock and drop Silva by avoiding his counter punches and catching him off-guard.

In his last two bouts, much has been made about the power of Bisping’s left hook. Nowadays, Bisping does a far better job of turning his hips into the left hook, allowing him to land with far more force. The left hook is known as the king of counter punches for a reason, and Bisping stays ready to throw the strike thanks to his focus on remaining in good position.

Together, those traits allow him to find opportunities.

Beyond his boxing, it's worth mentioning that his overall kicking ability has improved greatly over the years. He now mixes chopping low kicks and quick head kicks into his game and movement rather efficiently, which is a nice wrinkle to his game. That was quite noticeable opposite Dan Henderson in the rematch also, as Bisping repeatedly used left kicks to occupy Henderson’s right hand and slow him down.

If Henderson was blocking left kicks with his right hand, he couldn’t very well punch Bisping’s face with it at the same time.

Against a pair of counter punching Southpaw kickers in Silva and Rockhold, Bisping did a very nice job of disrupting their rhythm by attacking the lead leg. Often, his low kicks came in the form of quick round kicks, solely designed to unbalance his opponent’s stance. However, Bisping also attacked with push kicks to the lead leg, which makes throwing anything with power difficult.

By stymieing his opponent’s offense for a moment, Bisping lands an small strike with no consequence. If his opponent tries to force a counter or sloppily attacks from out-of-position in response, Bisping is in better position to land strikes.

Bisping is very much a fighter who gets better as the fight drags on. Because of his pace and excellent conditioning, Bisping is able to maintain his output and continue to establish his rhythm even deep into a fight. Meanwhile, his opponent -- even if he doesn't completely gas -- will usually start to slow down, which allows Bisping to land harder shots and become more effective.

As Bisping begins to land more, he builds upon his combinations. Rather than merely peck his opponent from the outside, Bisping will start to commit more of his weight to punches and dig to the body. By increasing his output even more, Bisping grows his advantage as his opponent is forced to do even more work.

Furthermore, Bisping will even close the distance a bit and work in the clinch. That's an area where he's rather effective with harder punches and knees, further taxing his opponent's conditioning as well.

Defensively, Bisping has always been a hittable fighter. He has a habit of standing a bit too tall and attempting to back straight out of exchanges, which has left him open to wide counter punches.

Prior to the Dan Henderson rematch, I was warming up a bit to the idea that Bisping really was a top-tier Middleweight. After all, wins over Anderson Silva and Luke Rockhold are nothing to scoff at regardless of the circumstances. And while Bisping certainly did improve upon the result of the first match, he also showed some huge vulnerabilities and defensive lapses that imply that his resurgence and high-level performances won’t be long-lasting.

In that bout, Bisping fought essentially a one-punch fighter without takedowns. Henderson is crafty, but pretty much every piece of effective offense came from his overhand right. Bisping knew this going in, as did every fan who has watched “Hendo” fight in recent years. Despite having all this foresight and a full training camp that could be dedicated fully to avoiding that punch, Bisping’s ended the bout looking even worse than the picture below, scraping by with a close decision win.


Wrestling

Bisping's wrestling grew from a weakness to a strength across his career. He's still not a very active offensive wrestler, but he's managed to shift the momentum of a few fights by scoring some key takedowns and landing shots from top position.

When Bisping does look for the takedown, it's usually for a standard double-leg against the cage. Bisping does a nice job of disguising the shot by scoring with a lot of dirty boxing in the clinch before level changing, which helps him get deep on his opponent's hips.

If he manages to lock his hands, the takedown comes easily.

Bisping is a very difficult man to takedown thanks in large part to his movement-heavy striking style. Bisping is constantly circling around -- often while he punches -- which makes lining up a double leg rather difficult. Since he prefers volume striking to stepping into power punches, it's not easy to catch him off-balance from punching either. Finally, Bisping's habit of striking at the end of his own range is also very helpful.

To counter his opponent's shot, Bisping has a strong sprawl and whizzer. If his opponent does manage to close the distance into the clinch or against the cage, Bisping is still a difficult man to control. Notably, he did a very nice job reversing the clinch opposite Chael Sonnen and forcing him back into the cage.

For a long time, Bisping was the absolute best at working back to his feet after being taken down. His loss to Tim Kennedy — still the only man to truly control Bisping on the mat — may have caused him to lose that crown, but he remains a special fighter in that area. It’s a longtime strength for Bisping, one worthy of this week’s technique analysis.


Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu

Bisping is not much of an offensive jiu-jitsu player, but he's nonetheless proven his grappling ability. When on the mat, he does a decent job working to advance position, though it's usually with the goal of landing ground strikes rather than attempting submissions. Defensively, Bisping is a very solid grappler. He's only ever been submitted once in his long career, and that was directly after absorbing a nasty head kick from Rockhold. A more fair example of his defensive grappling came against Kennedy, as Bisping repeatedly recovered from bad positions to get back to his guard and avoided the grappler's submission attempts.


Conclusion

In three fights, Bisping changed his legacy from long-time company man and game scrapper to a champion with a pair of wins over all-time greats and a first-round knockout win over a man who appeared to be the next dominant champion. Georges St. Pierre may be moving up a weight class and coming off a layoff, but a win over him still means something. It completes an incredible resume for Bisping, and at the end of the day, most will ignore the circumstances of those victories and only see the final scorecards.

[New York Knight]

UFC 217 predictions, preview, and analysis
Jesse Holland - MMA Mania



185 lbs.: UFC Middleweight Champion Michael “The Count” Bisping (30-7) vs. Georges “Rush” St-Pierre (25-2)

Nostradumbass predicts: What’s amazing about Georges St-Pierre is the simplicity of his offense and how effective it’s become in combat sports. “Rush,” working under the tutelage of famed boxing trainer Freddie Roach, is one of the few UFC fighters who understands how to use the jab, and why it’s so goddamn effective against flat-footed power punchers.

The super-speedy “Rush” does not have knockout power, so he will jab the shit out of you (see Koscheck, Josh), then charge in and take you to the floor (see Else, Everyone). His wrestling is top shelf and for a guy who never competed collegiately, it’s kind of bewildering. The typical St-Pierre gameplan, at its core, is not exactly rocket science, but the French-Canadian is the sort of high-level athlete who can maintain that breakneck pace for 25 minutes without batting an eyelash. Shit, he could probably do 10 rounds and then go run a half-marathon.

The jab is critical here because despite being shorter than middleweight champion Michael Bisping, St-Pierre does hold a one-inch advantage in reach. Sure, “Rush” is moving up from welterweight, but he’s probably as naturally strong as most 185-pounders and we’ve seen Bisping struggle against talented wrestlers. Had this fight taken place in 2014, which would have made sense after squeaking by Johny Hendricks, then St-Pierre would be a safe bet.

It’s not 2014.

St-Pierre lives and dies on his athleticism, and while his 38th birthday did not come with a pair of adult diapers, it has to be taken into consideration when fighting a bigger foe across five grueling rounds. This is not the same as Randy Couture coming back to school Tim Sylvia, who shares DNA with a platypus, because Bisping is no “Maine-iac.” Like his headlining counterpart, the stubborn Brit gives zero fucks about long fights and can easily do 25 minutes when the need arises and often gets stronger as the fight goes on. “The Count” is also 38, but he’s fighting down, as opposed to up, and outside of Tim Kennedy — who can benchpress a Volkswagen — Bisping is very difficult to keep down.

St-Pierre is the feel-good pick because it’s fun to boo Bisping. But we have to be realistic about the obstacles that “Rush” is facing. There is more to a four-year absence than simply getting older. The challenger will need time and space to regain his timing, to re-accustom himself to the *****s of cage fighting, and more importantly, deal with the panic of having a bigger opponent stymie a large portion of his offense. St-Pierre has never tired before, because he’s never had to deal with someone with the size and tenacity of Bisping, who to his credit, has greatly improved his defensive wrestling. I think St-Pierre’s in for a rude awakening and dare I say a late finish would not surprise me.


Final prediction: Bisping def. St-Pierre by technical knockout



135 lbs.: UFC Bantamweight Champion Cody “No Love” Garbrandt (11-0) vs. T.J. Dillashaw (14-3)

Nostradumbass predicts: This could easily be “Fight of the Night” and perhaps a strong contender for “Fight of the Year,” barring an early finish, which is not an unrealistic outcome from either of these talented strikers. It was not that long ago when Cody Garbrandt was a talented but unproven up-and-comer with heavy hands. Well, we now know, thanks to a masterful performance against former bantamweight deity Dominick Cruz, that “No Love” can juke, jive, and wail just as good as he can find that chin.

The jury is still out when it comes to high-level jiu-jitsu, so I won't anoint him the total package just yet, but when you can move and strike like Garbrandt does, there is little chance a fight actually makes it to the floor, unless one fighter planks after getting KTFO. Before every fight that amateur video of Garbrandt getting planished on the amateur circuit finds its way online, but it’s done nothing to rattle the former undefeated boxer or forecast the outcome of any of his subsequent performances.

There’s just no other way to put it: Garbrandt is the king of the bantamweights and earned his spot on the throne by kicking ass.

So too, has Dillashaw, and you can make an argument that the former Team Alpha Male (TAM) standout also defeated Cruz when they went to war back in early 2016, though the scorecards favored “Dominator” by a hair.

Dillashaw bounced back by avenging his loss to Raphael Assuncao, before turning away the tiny but powerful John Lineker. Like Garbrandt in the ammys, Dillashaw is also held accountable for getting stopped by John Dodson at The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 14 Finale. And, also like Garbrandt, that shit is ancient history. Dillashaw is nearly six years removed from that loss and has been completely transformed as a fighter.

Enough to defeat Garbrandt?

The champ was standout wrestler in high school, and while he’s not as accomplished as Dillashaw in that department, his understanding of cage wrestling coupled with his footwork should be enough to neutralize that threat, assuming the challenger even wants to explore those possibilities. We can debate the fundamentals and go back-and-forth on who has the better mechanics, but I think we would all agree that we are looking at two outstanding martial artists.

That said, Dillashaw’s aggression will benefit Garbrandt’s counterpunching, and while both combatants are hittable, 25 minutes is a long time to endure without taking one of the champion’s power shots. He may not land cleanly, but when you mortar with shells like Garbrandt does, you don’t always need to.


Final prediction: Garbrandt def. Dillashaw by technical knockout



115 lbs.: UFC Strawweight Champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk (14-0) vs. “Thug” Rose Namajunas (16-3)

Nostradumbass predicts: One of those most impressive things about reigning strawweight champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk is how successful she’s been in repelling every style of attack. While she’s billed as a striker — and a very good one at that — the champ has done more than just outstrike her opponents.

Jedrzejczyk has thwarted high-level wrestlers like Carla Esparza, talented jiu-jitsu grapplers like Claudia Gadelha, and aggressive power-punchers like Jessica Andrade. Even patient, technical strikers like Karolina Kowalkiewicz came up empty.

And Jedrzejczyk has cardio for days, which is a big (and important) part of her game.

All of those aforementioned opponents have brought more to the table than Rose Namajunas, who will attempt to usurp the 115-pound throne in the first of three title fights. Since coming up short in the finals of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 20, “Thug” has captured four of five, with three submission finishes.

Her competition has oscillated between good and merely “okay,” but we blame the division for that, not the fighter, as there is only a finite number of opponents hovering around the top five. Her split-decision loss to Kowalkiewicz was not a blowout and Namajunas could easily be 5-0 instead of 4-1 during that span.

I’m still concerned that she has yet to finish a fight by way of KO/TKO.

With that in mind, I can’t imagine what she can offer that Jedrzejczyk hasn’t already seen — and conquered. This idea that a weird, funky style is enough to unseat a dominant champion is silly, and hardly the sort of thing you want to pin your hopes to.

Simply put, Jedrzejczyk is a superior striker with outstanding takedown defense and punishing clinch work. Namajunas will fight valiantly, but she’s eventually going to wilt under the accumulation of Polish punches.


Final prediction: Jedrzejczyk def. Namajunas by technical knockout



170 lbs.: Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson (13-2-1) vs. Jorge “Gamebred” Masvidal (32-12)

Nostradumbass predicts: Jorge Masvidal is ranked in the top five at 170 pounds, which to me, is somewhat surprising. I don’t have anything against “Gamebred” as a fighter, he’s certainly talented both on the feet and on the ground, but his stepping stones to the top of the welterweight porch have been padded with tired names from yesteryear.

That his biggest win to date came over Donald Cerrone, a natural lightweight, is telling.

Prior to lassoing “Cowboy,” Masvidal beat the brakes off Jake Ellenberger, who hasn't been relevant in over four years. That followed his decision win over the grizzled but irrelevant Ross Pearson, equalling two fighters who are not even ranked in the top 15.

Before that? Lazy losses to Lorenz Larkin and Ben Henderson.

That stands in stark contrast to Stephen Thompson, who is just two spots ahead of Masvidal, despite a more impressive resume. “Wonderboy” also recycled his share of cans, and how much stock we put in his win over the fading Johnny Hendricks is debatable, but you can’t discount 10 rounds with division champion Tyron Woodley — a teammate of Masvidal’s — nor should we overlook the fact that Thompson sent interim middleweight champion Robert Whittaker to another division.

Then shipped Rory MacDonald to Bellator.

Thompson is not the green giant he was earlier in his career, at least in terms of the ground game, but it’s still a factor in this three-round affair and there for Masvidal to exploit. That’s where it gets tricky for “Gamebred,” because he seems more concerned with fighting and less concerned with winning.

I don’t expect Masvidal to give Thompson the room he needs to work. The former kickboxing phenom is strongest at range and his one-inch reach advantage is not enough to sound any alarms. That said, Masvidal is notorious for his lack of urgency and often forgets that damage inflicted is not as important as points scored. It’s likely to cost him the win.


Final prediction: Thompson def. Masvidal by unanimous decision



185 lbs.: Paulo “Borrachinha” Henrique Costa (10-0) vs. Johny “Bigg Rigg” Hendricks (18-7)

Nostradumbass predicts: It’s hard to know what went wrong in the career of Johny Hendricks, or where, but “Bigg Rigg” has not won back-to-back fights in over four years and is just 3-5 since coming up short against Georges St-Pierre back in 2013. In addition, he’s missed weight a bunch of times — even after jumping up to middleweight — and was stopped in his last fight against Tim Boetsch.

At 34 years of age, I’m not expecting a career resurgence.

That’s a shame, because Hendricks has a formidable offense, blending NCAA Division-1 wrestling with knockout power in his left hand. I’m not sure what happened to either of them, as the bearded brawler hasn't finished a fight since creaming the now-retired Martin Kampmann back in late 2012.

I think you know where I’m going with this.

Paulo Henrique Costa is eight years younger than Hendricks and has finished all 10 of his professional fights — nine of them by way of violent knockout. That includes his UFC debut against Oluwale Bamgbose back in June. Prior to that, “Borrachinha” was making a mockery the Brazilian circuit, which includes a handful of appearances for Jungle Fight in Sao Paulo.

The easiest and most obvious criticism is that Costa has never fought anyone in the division top 10, while Hendricks has faced a murderer’s row at welterweight and some pretty tough names at 185 pounds. Keep in mind that his losses to Neil Magny and Kelvin Gastelum weren’t exactly blowouts. Even with his current slump, this should be Hendricks’ fight to lose. But it’s not just the losses that give me pause, it’s his performances, too.

“Bigg Rigg” has looked flat, uninspired, and lost inside the cage.

Combine that with his mental issues outside the cage, which are no doubt behind his struggles to make weight, and I just can’t pick Hendricks to beat a younger, hungrier, and more aggressive fighter. One who is a natural middleweight with a three inch height and reach advantage. This could be over fairly quickly.


Final prediction: Costa def. Hendricks by technical knockout

[New York Knight]

Michael Bisping (30-7 MMA, 20-7 UFC)

Staple info:

•Height: 6’1″ Age: 38 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 75.5″
•Last fight: Decision win over Dan Henderson (Oct. 8, 2016)
•Camp: RVCA Gym (California)
•Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
•Risk management: Good


Supplemental info:

+ UFC middleweight champion
+ “TUF 3” winner
+ Regional MMA titles
+ 18 KO victories
+ 3 submission wins
+ 12 first-round finishes
+ Excellent feints and footwork
^ Manages distance well
+ Consistent pace and pressure
^ Good cardio and conditioning
+ Accurate left hook
+ Underrated wrestling
+ Good guard retentions and getups
– Dropped in 4 of last 6 fights



Georges St-Pierre (25-2 MMA, 19-2 UFC)

Staple info:

•Height: 5’11” Age: 36 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 76″
•Last fight: Decision win over Johny Hendricks (Nov. 16, 2013)
•Camp: Tristar Gym (Canada)
•Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
•Risk management: Excellent


Supplemental info:

+ Former UFC welterweight champion
+ Kyokushin karate black belt
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ 8 KO victories
+ 5 submission wins
+ 7 first-round finishes
+ Intelligent and tactical fighter
+ Well-versed striker
^ Conducts well off of the jab
+ Tremendous takedown ability
^ Changes level, chains, transitions
+ Excellent top game
^ Superb passing and ground strikes
– Coming off of a 4-year layoff



Summary:

The main event in Madison Square Garden is a superfight for the middleweight title as champ Michael Bisping welcomes back Georges St-Pierre.

A longtime staple of the UFC, Bisping’s better days were thought to be behind him after the veteran sustained an eye injury that was cause for concern and inconsistent performances alike. But after a storybook resurgence that came to fruition in 2016, the Englishman earned his long-sought title after beating the likes of Anderson Silva, Luke Rockhold and Dan Henderson.

Seeking another legendary name to add to his resume, Bisping has accepted the challenge of a returning champion who’s also chasing history.

Considered the greatest welterweight of all time, St-Pierre was one of the few to walk away as champion, as well as a pound-for-pound great. Now, nearly four years after his last appearance in the octagon, St-Pierre has decided to return north of his usual weight class while attempting to become just the fourth fighter to achieve gold in two divisions.

With the intangible of St-Pierre’s extended layoff, it can be difficult to forecast what style or state the former welterweight champ will return in.

Given St-Pierre’s insane work ethic, resources and obsessive nature, I am sure he’s coming into this contest in serviceable, battle-ready condition. Still, I would not be surprised to see a different version of the French-Canadian, who has had multiple iterations to his game throughout his career.

Coming from a Kyokushin karate base, St-Pierre’s striking style shone through in his initial ascension up the UFC ranks.

Embracing his sport karate stylings, St-Pierre would almost bounce in and out of range, working particularly well when striking off of his lead leg. And even though he could win fights on the feet, the French-Canadian was a complete fighter who was quietly crafting his wrestling game (with the help of Olympians) for the challenges ahead.

Not only did St-Pierre steadily develop into one of the best wrestlers in the division, but he – more importantly – used his newfound skills to fuel his love for strategy.

After his first career loss in what was a title fight with UFC Hall of Famer Matt Hughes, St-Pierre began to gameplan much more wisely for his opposition. Against former welterweight title challengers in Frank Trigg and Sean Sherk, we saw St-Pierre do the unthinkable by out-wrestling two of the most accoladed wrestlers in the division to score spirit-crushing stoppages.

Although St-Pierre eventually earned his first welterweight belt, he quickly lost it to Matt Serra in what was one of the biggest upsets in MMA history.

From that point on, St-Pierre further hedged his bets in regards to preparation and strategy. After winning back his belt from Serra, St-Pierre continued to pile up victories before retiring following 12 straight wins.

Despite St-Pierre’s conservative style drawing criticism from some, the dominance of his game paints a pretty clear path for him in this matchup.

Bisping, a stick-and-move stylist, should have the on-paper advantages for as long this fight stays standing.

Coming from a kickboxing base, we saw Bisping steadily evolve his style over the years. After his knockout loss to Henderson, the Englishman made a concerted effort to come back better and sounder than before.

Since then, we have seen Bisping improve upon his hand and head positioning, as well as sitting down more on his punches. Although his high-output approach still makes him hittable by nature, we have seen Bisping minimize these scenarios since joining forces with Jason Parillo.

A striking coach with strong boxing roots, Parillo has helped many notable fighters grow, including lightweight legend B.J. Penn. In turn, we now see Bisping move much more fluidly with his footwork, which fuels his pulling and returning preferences.

Applying angles appropriately, Bisping will also change his level more, which can open up his options and make him harder to hit. What is most impressive about the Englishman’s renaissance is the fact that he is doing it with only one healthy eye.

Shortly after his loss to Vitor Belfort, Bisping sustained an eye injury that required surgery, albeit not corrective.

Despite initially struggling in his return fight against Tim Kennedy, Bisping has since shown he can come back into combat, carrying a heightened sense of urgency and awareness about his game. Coupled with the byproducts of gelling with his striking coach, we have seen Bisping have his best years during what is arguably the winter of his career.

Still, striking improvements aside, Bisping has demonstrated that he is not beyond being taken down, which sets up the key dynamic for this fight.

Whether it’s through offensive or reactionary takedowns (that take place against the fence or in the open), I see St-Pierre inevitably getting Bisping to the ground.

The question, however, is: What will he be able to accomplish while there?

One of the best guard passers and ground strikers to grace the octagon, St-Pierre will undoubtedly have an array of options he can employ. That said, he will also be facing one of the best get-up artists in the game.

Although wrestling pressure has been Bisping’s traditional foil, he surprisingly succeeds little control time in both wins and losses. Facilitated by active hips, the Englishman beautifully utilizes a butterfly or half-guard to create enough space to stand or scoot his way to the fence.

Not afraid to turtle and stand if he needs to, Bisping displays excellent grip and hip awareness, making it difficult to grab his back in the process of getting up. St-Pierre has shown the ability to take an opponent’s back smoothly, but his conservative sensibilities had him opting for ride positions toward the latter part of his career.

Don’t get me wrong: St-Pierre electing high-percentage options is not bad in theory, but I see his style allowing Bisping to get back to this feet if the French-Canadian isn’t willing to put his pieces on the line when it comes to fighting for position.

So, with the most recent iteration of St-Pierre in mind, I have a hard time seeing Bisping getting submitted or stopped on the floor unless compromised prior. Nevertheless, takedowns score and will likely bank St-Pierre rounds, which leads me to my next question: How long will he be able to employ his transition game?

St-Pierre was known for his conditioning and pace prior, but he is coming into this fight at least 15 pounds heavier than usual, with an additional four years of ring rust on his back. Whether it’s the weight of the moment or the literal pounds put on, St-Pierre will have some on-the-job intangibles to work through.

Furthermore, the stereotype of St-Pierre’s biological makeup and transition game shine less brightly when re-watching his last three fights – matchups that ended up putting the most miles on him, statistically speaking.

Not only did the former welterweight kingpin, in my opinion, appear to be a beat slower in transit (to what was an already slimmed down and refined game), but St-Pierre also seemed to struggle with his accuracy and output numerically.

We even saw Nick Diaz, who has an otherwise vacant double-leg defense, stuff legitimate takedown attempts from St-Pierre in their last two rounds of action. It was also in the mid to late rounds in which we saw St-Pierre sustain the most damage in each of his final three performances.

These type of trends usually don’t decrease over time, but the oddsmakers and public seem to be much more optimistic for the returning legend given how competitive the betting lines have been.

Part of me is happy to see St-Pierre back, and finally taking a step up in the size of his competition. However, I also feel he’s reaching into the wrong cookie jar for multiple reasons.

In the fight game, timing is typically the first thing to go, and we’ve seen it tax the greatest names in this sport. If St-Pierre cannot find his finish on the floor, then I see him eventually succumbing to Bisping’s pace and pressure before the final bell.



Official Mixed Martial Analyst Pick: Bisping inside the distance

[New York Knight]

Cody Garbrandt (11-0 MMA, 6-0 UFC)

Staple info:

Height: 5’7″ Age: 26 Weight: 135 lbs. Reach: 65.5″
Last fight: Decision win over Dominick Cruz (Dec. 30, 2016)
Camp: Team Alpha Male (California)
Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
Risk management: Fair


Supplemental info:

+ UFC bantamweight title
+ Multiple wrestling accolades
+ 32-1 as an amateur boxer
+ 9 KO victories
+ 7 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Superb feints and footwork
^ Creates angles and openings
+ Accurate left hook
+ Improved defense/head movement
^ Fundamental sense of range
+ Excellent wrestling ability
+ Demonstrates good grappling IQ
^ Scrambles/gets up well



T.J. Dillashaw (15-3 MMA, 10-3 UFC)

Staple info:

Height: 5’6″ Age: 31 Weight: 135 lbs. Reach: 68″
Last fight: Decision win over John Lineker (Dec. 30, 2016)
Camp: Bang Muay Thai (California)
Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
Risk management: Fair


Supplemental info:

+ Former UFC bantamweight champion
+ 3x NCAA qualifier
+ 6 KO victories
+ 3 submission wins
+ 4 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Consistent pace and pressure
^ High-volume striker
+ Superb feints and footwork
^ Effectively switches stances
+ Pulls and returns punches well
^ Often punctuates combos with hooks
+ Excellent wrestling ability
^ Solid scrambler =/transitional grappler



Summary:

UFC 217’s co-main event has barnburner written all over it as champ Cody Garbrandt and T.J. Dillashaw finally do battle for the bantamweight title.

Garbrandt, the sitting titleholder, will not only be looking to defend his belt, but also his team’s honor with the rivalry that has unfolded over the past two years.

Dillashaw, the former champ, will be tasked with taking on a former training partner who holds the title he so desperately wants back.

Starting off on the feet, we have a battle between two skilled strikers who have wrestling bases.

Initially entering the sport as a wrestler, we saw Dillashaw steadily evolve out of the scrambling, submission0grappler mold that was influenced by his environment. Embracing the teachings of Duane “Bang” Ludwig, we saw the NCAA qualifier transition into a skilled striker over the past few years.

Like many fighters who are naturally orthodox but switch to southpaw, Dillashaw typically conducts traffic off of his right hand. Whether he is setting up left crosses and power kicks from southpaw, or favoring his uppercuts and overhands from orthodox, it’s Dillashaw’s check-right-hand/jab that is a key to his offense.

Using it to off-beat his opponent’s offensive rhythms, Dillashaw will add to the disarray by incorporating subtle but effective shifts that change the stance (and even angle) of his attack. Nevertheless, Dillashaw’s shifting style is aggressive by nature, which means that he will need to be careful with what is coming back at him.

A power puncher who came up wrestling and boxing, Garbrandt’s skill set and style have been a seamless fit for MMA.

Utilizing feints and forward-pressure to bait exchanges, Garbrandt subtly and slightly moves off center to execute his combinations. Although Garbrandt will usually enter off of his righthand, he does a lot of his cleanup hitting with his left hook, and I feel that punch may serve him well in this fight.

Another layer to the champion’s game is his improvements in regards to head movement and angles. He’s a longtime cross-hook connoisseur, and we now see Garbrandt roll appropriately behind his crosses to avoid check-hook counters as he comes up with hooks of his own.

That said, Garbrandt’s brawling sensibilities have shown themselves in past fights, sometimes lowering his hands in pocket exchanges. Despite Garbrandt’s heightened sense of spatial awareness and defense, he could get taxed by a check-hook or head kick himself if he’s not careful.

Regardless of how the standing exchanges go, it is in the wrestling department where things could get potentially interesting. Both fighters possess excellent wrestling abilities but utilize them in different ways.

Dillashaw, whose underrated ground game was on display in his last bout, primarily uses his wrestling to score late-round takedowns or to keep the fight standing. Garbrandt also uses his wrestling to keep fights standing, but seemingly keeps a double-leg ready, using it to reset or recover when catching himself over-committing to punches on the inside.

Albeit a small sample-size, Garbrandt appears to have good positional awareness and grappling IQ on the mat. However, I still slightly lean toward Dillashaw in regards to grappling advantages given his past proclivities and overall experience.

For that reason, I will be interested to see if Dillashaw has the intent to fight on the floor, much less the ability to get Garbrandt down. Should either man find success in grounding the other, I do not suspect that the stanzas will last long given their scrambling ability.

In what is arguably the closest the fight on the card surprisingly has the most logical betting lines attached.

According to Las Vegas odd, Garbrandt, the champ, is slightly favored over Dillashaw to win this fight. Even though I feel that Dillashaw is the more diverse fighter with multiple paths to victory, Garbrandt’s ever-growing evolution can be hard to bet against, especially after what we saw last December.

Ultimately, this is a contest that is hard to confidently pick a winner on paper – and it gets even dicier when looking at it off paper.

Whenever two former training partners fight each other, it often makes for a slightly awkward, high-intangible affair. Coupled with the factors of Dillashaw’s camp jumping and Garbrandt’s recent back issues, and forecasting the action becomes even more difficult than usual.

If both men come in near their previous best, then I suspect that Garbrandt’s heavy-handed counters – fueled by his footspeed – will make the difference. Dillashaw’s volume and diversity of attack will make this battle competitive on cards, but I see Garbrandt’s ring generalship and power-punches punctuating rounds, possibly even earning himself a stoppage if the champion finds his timing early.



Official Mixed Martial Analyst pick: Garbandt inside the distance

[New York Knight]

Joanna Jedrzejczyk (14-0 MMA, 8-0 UFC)

Staple info:

Height: 5’6″ Age: 30 Weight: 115 lbs. Reach: 65.5″
Last fight: Decision win over Jessica Andrade (May 13, 2017)
Camp: American Top Team (Florida)
Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
Risk management: Good


Supplemental info:

+ UFC strawweight champion
+ 5x muay Thai champion
+ 4 KO victories
+ 1 submission wins
+ 1 first-round finishes
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Excellent footwork
^ Shifts, half-steps, pivots
+ Technically sound striker
^ Rarely throws self out of position
+ Accurate jabs and leg kicks
+ Superb defensive and offensive clinch
^ Solid head positioning and forearm framing
+ Underrated grappling IQ
^ Good get-up technique/urgency



Rose Namajunas (6-3 MMA, 4-2 UFC)

Staple info:

Height: 5’5″ Age: 25 Weight: 115 lbs. Reach: 65″
Last fight: Submission win over Michelle Waterson (Apr. 15, 2017)
Camp: 303 Training Center (Denver, CO)
Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
Risk management: Good


Supplemental info:

+ “TUF 20” runner-up
+ Taekwondo and karate black belts
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt
+ 5 submission wins
+ 2 first-round finishes
+ Good footwork
^ Manages distance well
+ Accurate and effective jab
+ Counters well with right hand
+ Improved wrestling ability
^ Taken down all 6 UFC opponents
+ Solid top game/positional rides
^ Looks for / floats toward back
+ Active and attacking guard
^ Explosive hips



Summary:

Layering an already stacked main card is a showdown for the strawweight strap, as champ Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Rose Namajunas collide.

A reigning titleholder who has deservedly found her way into the pound-for-pound conversations, Jedrzejczyk will be putting more than just a belt on the line at UFC 217.

Looking to cease the moment is Namajunas, a “TUF 20” runner-up who is looking to finally make good on her quest for gold after initially coming up short in the division’s inaugural championship.

Among the many of Namajunas’ improvements since coming off of the show has been her active and educated left hand.

Although Namajunas is usually longer than the bulk of her contemporaries, she has steadily shown that she can accentuate her length as she steps into her jabs concisely.

More impressive than the accuracy of her jab is the fact that Namajunas does well with judging risk vs. reward in regards to her options of following up with a cross or backing up out of range.

Nevertheless, Namajunas will need to be on point early and often with her strikes if she means to stop the surmounting momentum of her fearless opponent.

Possessing an elite jab of her own, Jedrzejczyk will be one of the few fighters at strawweight who will be happy to oblige Namajunas at long range.

Throwing it actively and accurately, the development of Jedrzejczyk’s jab dates back to the beginning of her career, and this has been a crucial tool for her success. Like many muay Thai strikers transitioning into MMA, Jedrzejczyk also feared the takedown – subsequently avoiding throwing kicks comfortably until her very first title defense.

Now, showing the competency and confidence in her anti-grappling abilities, Jedrzejczyk will use her jab more for setups rather than safety, confidently attaching well-placed leg kicks to punctuate her presence.

Despite Jedrzejczyk demonstrating devastating leg kicks, I suspect she will throw them sparingly against Namajunas – at least at first.

Not only does Namajunas display the savvy and awareness to bait her lead leg for counters, but she also has a knack for hitting takedowns in the first round, which could cause the champion to fight conservative early.

Regardless of the each fighter’s choices on the feet, I feel that the clinch will play a key factor in this fight.

Although the dynamic of the matchup makes Namajunas dangerous here, Jedrzejczyk is the more technical fighter within these small spaces.

Whether she is inside the clinch or free to operate on the feet, seldom will you see Jedrzejczyk out of position or off balance. Jedrzejczyk is also diligent when it comes to her head position in close, something that helps the champion disrupt her opponent’s grappling efforts and makes her difficult to hit.

Assisting in this defensive wall is her subtle, but effective forearm framing. When getting ready to break off and strike, Jedrzejczyk will replace her forehead position with her forearms, creating just enough space for devasting short-elbows to follow.

Considering what we saw Namajunas subject to inside of the clinch with Koralina Kowalkiewicz, we could see the challenger under heavy fire if her takedown efforts fail to find success against Jedrzejczyk.

However, if Namajunas can ground the champion, we could see this fight’s temperature take a dramatic turn.

After a crushing loss to Carla Esparza, Namajunas hit an immediate upswing in her grappling, showing that she had more to offer than just an opportunistic submission game.

Utilizing offensive wrestling and top pressure, Namajunas began to take down her counterparts, exposing them to submission underneath her suggestive shoulder pressure and slick transitions. A superb back-taker, Namajunas has a knack for floating to or finding the back of her opponent.

Given that Namajunas is undefeated in fights in which she has found the back, this will undoubtedly be the champion’s worst-case scenario. Luckily for Jedrzejczyk, she demonstrates key techniques that should help her prevent that from happening.

Not only does the champion do well with using the fence to stand safely, but she also favors the single-leg get-up, a technique – in my opinion – that is underutilized in MMA.

Whether Jedrzejczyk ends up grounded in full-guard or side control, she always shrimps to half-guard so that she can swim inside for a single-leg grasp. From here, the champion will use the leverage created from this grip in a similar spirit to an underhook get-up.

Akin to Demian Maia’s half-guard series, Jedrzejczyk keeps her grasp low, which protects her from your typical guillotine or D’arce choke counters. But, unlike Maia, the champion will use this leverage to stand and separate rather than re-wrestle, something that will serve her well in this fight.

Although I agree with the oddsmakers in opening Jedrzejczyk as the favorite, I disagree with the variation of the betting line.

Given that the champion has been either seated by straight punches or taken down to the mat in her last few fights, I feel that Namajunas is much more lively than what’s listed.

That said, if Namajunas cannot conduct with her jab early, nor capitalize on crucial takedowns and transitions, then I see Jedrzejczyk crushing spirits inside of clinch space, steadily gaining the steam and success all the way to the scorecards.



Official Mixed Martial Analyst pick: Jedrzjeczyk by decision