UFC 102: Couture vs Nogueira - Aug 29th Discussion

[Mr. IWS]

Re: UFC 102: Couture vs Nogueira - Aug 29th Discussion

Bookmaker and sportsbook are the ones I use when I bet online. Probably over the last 6-7 months, Ive been using my local guy.

[Luke]

Re: UFC 102: Couture vs Nogueira - Aug 29th Discussion

I can probably get +330 at matchbook right now

Matchbook? Not familiar. What books do you guys use/recommend?

I have accounts with Bodog, Bookmaker/BetCRIS, and Sportsbook.

I have sportsinteraction and matchbook.I only use sportsinteraction to bet dogs because they usually have high lines on favorites.You need to go check out matchbook.com they usually have 10 cent lines even on MMA and boxing meaning if Gonzaga is a -340 favorite you should be able to get Tuchscherer at +330 .I usually get way better lines at matchbook than any book is offering .

[SPX]

Re: UFC 102: Couture vs Nogueira - Aug 29th Discussion

I have sportsinteraction and matchbook.I only use sportsinteraction to bet dogs because they usually have high lines on favorites.You need to go check out matchbook.com they usually have 10 cent lines even on MMA and boxing meaning if Gonzaga is a -340 favorite you should be able to get Tuchscherer at +330 .I usually get way better lines at matchbook than any book is offering .

I will look into it tonight. I always like options. I wonder why they aren't listed on bestfightodds.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 102: Couture vs Nogueira - Aug 29th Discussion

Okay, so all bets are down and here's what I'm going with officially:

1u on Couture @ -185 to win .54u
1.5u on Jardine @ -175 to win .86u
1u on Marquardt @ -155 to win .65u
1.5u on Vera @ -165 to win .91u
.25u on Leben @ -150 to win .17u
.5u on Leben @ -145 to win .35u

Couture-Jardine-Marquardt-Vera-Leben Parlay -- .15u to win 1.49u

In a perfect world I'd take 4.97u off this event. I'll keep my fingers crossed!

[Mr. IWS]

Re: UFC 102: Couture vs Nogueira - Aug 29th Discussion

The plays look solid bro. I would only disagree on Vera slightly and Couture, but not enough for me to make a wager, so I hope you hit them all.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 102: Couture vs Nogueira - Aug 29th Discussion

The plays look solid bro. I would only disagree on Vera slightly and Couture, but not enough for me to make a wager, so I hope you hit them all.

I can envision a way that everyone one of these fights can go the other way. Couture and Marquardt could get submitted, Jardine could get bumrushed, Vera could get TKO/KOed, and Leben could get laid on and GnPd.

I don't feel super confident in any of these fights, but I feel relatively confident in all of them. Probably the one I have most doubts about is the Leben fight, hence the small bet.

[Luke]

Re: UFC 102: Couture vs Nogueira - Aug 29th Discussion

Okay, so all bets are down and here's what I'm going with officially:

1u on Couture @ -185 to win .54u
1.5u on Jardine @ -175 to win .86u
1u on Marquardt @ -155 to win .65u
1.5u on Vera @ -165 to win .91u
.25u on Leben @ -150 to win .17u
.5u on Leben @ -145 to win .35u

Couture-Jardine-Marquardt-Vera-Leben Parlay -- .15u to win 1.49u

In a perfect world I'd take 4.97u off this event. I'll keep my fingers crossed!

Best of luck SPX

I really think you should check out mathcbook. Let me give you a couple of examples

Right now at matchbook

Couture is -160 instead of -185 from your book

Jardine -149 instead of -175.


Betting both at matchbook would win you .23 unit more if they both win .Now I know .23 unit is not a lot of money but you bet alot of fights and over the course of a year this can really add up to alot of money.



Dont think I'm trying to push matchbook on you because I'm not just trying to help you get the best odds and most money for you bets


Again GL I am still research/watching videos but I agree with you on most sides

[Luke]

Re: UFC 102: Couture vs Nogueira - Aug 29th Discussion

I think Chris Tuchscherer is worth a look at +305.Gonzaga has done nothing his whole career besides one head kick to Cro Cop.He has lost 3 of 5 since then with the two wins being against no bodies.I think the price is high because Gonzaga is still living off he Cro Cop KO

Someone said something similar on another board I frequent. I really don't know anything about Tuchscherer, but I agree that Gonzaga has been questionable. Goodluck getting that +305 in the US, though. That's a Pinnacle line. You can get +295 through 5dimes. The best I can personally get is +285 from Bookmaker.

Line is up to +310 on matchbook for Tuchscherer .I fully expect by fight night that I will be able to get +340 to +350 on him

[SPX]

Re: UFC 102: Couture vs Nogueira - Aug 29th Discussion

Line is up to +310 on matchbook for Tuchscherer .I fully expect by fight night that I will be able to get +340 to +350 on him

Went to Matchbook and it didn't look like a typical sportsbook. Is there something weird about it?

[Mr. IWS]

Re: UFC 102: Couture vs Nogueira - Aug 29th Discussion

Looks like Nog's training camp isnt going too well. I dont know how true this is, but I still have a feeling in my gut that he will pull out the win. Not enough to bet on it thought....LOL

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2009/8/22/99 ... ueiras-ufc

At the press conference call Nogueira emphasized that he is feeling the best he has in years:

"I'm 33 years old, and I have a lot to do in my career still," Nogueira said. "At least, I've got to fight a couple of more years.

"I know I'm still young and feel healthy. I still feel when I fight I'm very competitive. ... I'm in the best shape since 2005. I feel very good, and I did not feel like (that) in the last four years."

But rumors are swirling that his camp hasn't gone well and that he has been knocked out repeatedly in sparring sessions, a far cry from the iron-chinned Minotauro of old.

We will find out almost exactly one week from tonight. Personally, I'm hoping for the best Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira we've ever seen, but I just can't convince myself it's very likely.

The other question is this -- even if it is the best Big Nog we've ever seen, could that man beat Randy Couture? Perhaps if they had met ten years ago when Couture's submission defense game was much more limited. But in 2009, it's hard to draw a path to victory for Nogueira. He might be able to outpoint Couture on the feet, but he's never displayed KO power. There's no way he'll dominate the takedowns against Couture and it's highly unlikely he'll be able to sweep Randy from his back. That leaves the old hail mary triangle or arm bar from his back. But it's not 2003 and Randy ain't Mirko Cro Cop.

Video of Big Nog training in the full entry.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 102: Couture vs Nogueira - Aug 29th Discussion

Hmm, interesting. Thanks for posting.

Looks like it might be time to drop another .5u on Couture.

[Luke]

Re: UFC 102: Couture vs Nogueira - Aug 29th Discussion

Line is up to +310 on matchbook for Tuchscherer .I fully expect by fight night that I will be able to get +340 to +350 on him

Went to Matchbook and it didn't look like a typical sportsbook. Is there something weird about it?

Its not really a sports book its called an exchange .You have to put up offers and have someone take them .For example you want Tuchsherer at +350 for 100 profit you put that offer in and on matchbook it will say Gonzaga -350 for 350 .That is your bet and as soon as someone takes Gonzaga -350 for 350 you bet is placed .

Of course you dont have to put up any offers you can just take the ones that are already up and then it works just like a sports book.

Right now at matchbook the Tuchscherer -Gonzaga line looks like this

Tuchshere +310 500

Gonzaga -350 700 -365 730


That means someone wants Gonzaga at -310 for 500 profit and someone wants Tuchscherer at +350 for 200 and +365 for 200
Now you can take whatever is up already and get those odds but since the best you can get on Gonzaga is -350 I would put Tuchsherer is at about +335 and I gaurntee someone will take it because the bests odds on Zaga right now are -350 and when you place you offer of +335 up it will make the Zaga odds go to -335

It is a little confusing at first to figure out but when you get 20-25 cent better lines than anyone else its worth it

[SPX]

Re: UFC 102: Couture vs Nogueira - Aug 29th Discussion

Maybe I'll look into Matchbook a bit more. Sounds interesting.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 102: Couture vs Nogueira - Aug 29th Discussion

In light of recent rumors, I went ahead and dropped another .5u on Couture.

[Luke]

Re: UFC 102: Couture vs Nogueira - Aug 29th Discussion

I would tend to believe everything in this acrticle because its the exact way I have been thinking of NOG.I dont know why everyone is saying he's only 33 .Age has nothing to do whether a fighter is old or not . Look at Eric Morales and Benard Hopkins in boxing . Morales was hit way too much in his career and by 31 he was a shot fighter .This is the same guy the beat Pacman in a uninamimus decision.Hopkins on the other hand is a defensive fighter and hasnt taken many shots in his career and is still a top fighter at 43
NOG hasnt looked good in his last 3 fights and should have lost all 3 .Fighters dont look bad for 3 fights and usually make combacks. I dont see why people believe NOG has something left at 33 but everyone will admit Wanderlei Silva who is also 33 is a shot fighter who has taken too many shots. NOG and Silva are two of the same fighters imo