UFC 106: Ortiz vs Griffin 2 - Nov 21st Discussion

[Mr. IWS]

[Mr. IWS]

Re: UFC 106: Ortiz vs Griffin 2 - Nov 21st Discussion

If Kos could some how tell me that he promises to not stand and trade with Johnson, and just GnP, I would be all over him. LOL

I think Kos will overwelm Johnson with his takedowns, but he has fallen in love with his standup.

This could go the way of his fight against Thiago, when he got caught, if he trys to stand with Johnson.

[zY|]

Re: UFC 106: Ortiz vs Griffin 2 - Nov 21st Discussion

People are all over Johnson on this. The odds opened at Kos -190 AJ +155 and were down to this like 2 hours later.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 106: Ortiz vs Griffin 2 - Nov 21st Discussion

I have a feeling Johnson might take this one. It sucks the line shifted before I had a chance to put a bet in. I was really hoping for something closer to +170 to +200 on Johnson since Kos is a Top 5 guy but after having thought it through I wish I could've gotten a unit on him at +155.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 106: Ortiz vs Griffin 2 - Nov 21st Discussion

Here are my bets:

I took Kos, who I think is a great value @ -115. Kos should have learned his lesson, and he did take down the last striker he faced, in Chris Lytle. He has a habit of boxing, but only against inferior strikers. He is usually smart enough to take down the strikers he faces. Koscheck's jiu jitsue is way more developed than Johnson's at this point. People are hot on Johnson because he is coming off a couple of KO's. But Kos KO'd Yoshida too. And Burns, while tough, is not in the same league as Koscheck's opposition lately.

I alsp took took Karo @ -115. Everyone is dazzled by Hazellett's ground game. But the level of competition make a big difference. Karo will take Hazelett down whenever he wants. He will not be submitted or swept. I like Karo to win a decision.

I also took Rosholt @ -190. The odds are a little steep, but I think Rosholt is about to break out. He is a huge athletic talent. His wrestling pedigree is one of the best in the UFC (more accomplished than Kos at least). He has a solid solid chin. Grove will have a striking advantage, but he has no power to finish. He won't be able to pepper Rosholt the entire fight, eventually Rosholt will take him down. Grove as shown some submissions, and has won twice by triangles, but he has never caught a high level grappler. The word on Rosholt is that he was hanging with blackbelts after about 5 months. Although Grove did manage to survive against a superior grappler in Almeida, Almeida doesn't have the takedowns that Rosholt has (and honestly Almeida doesnt look like he has the desire to compete anymore). Anyway, I like Rosholt.

I am still hoping for a line to open on Sotiropoulos vs Dent.

I do not like any of the other fights too much.

www.mmascientist.blogspot.com

[Mr. IWS]

Re: UFC 106: Ortiz vs Griffin 2 - Nov 21st Discussion

Great to see ya make it over MMA_Scientist. Good write ups too!

I sent you a pm.

[zY|]

Re: UFC 106: Ortiz vs Griffin 2 - Nov 21st Discussion

Nice writeup.

I hope you're right about Kos. If he fights smart he should win pretty handily. As for Karo, I believe Hazelett is better than him at pretty much everything, and the game is passing Karo by. The guy has only fought twice in 2 years and hasn't looked good in either fight. Rosholt should probably win but I'm leery of taking him at those odds after watching him nearly snap Almeida's arm in half. I still can't believe he didn't tap to that, it was definitely hyperextended.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 106: Ortiz vs Griffin 2 - Nov 21st Discussion

Thanks for the reply.

I disagree about Karo. He didn't look great against Kim in his last fight, but he won. Kim is tough too. A win over Kim, not matter how ugly, means a lot. He was also winning the Alves fight until he caught the knee. He is only 27 years old... His striking looks vastly improved. I think he is still evolving. I see Hazellett as just not there yet. But I suppose we will see. I may be overestimating Karo based on his wins over top fighters a few years ago.

On Grove, I don't see how he can finish the fight. And I don't think he chances of winning a decision are very good, since he will have to beat Rosholt everywhere to do so.

My heart hopes Koscheck will lose, but I think he is a solid bet, those odds seem off to me. I already bet 3 units on Kos, I am actually thinking about raising my bet on him... I think I let my hate for him get in the way.

[zY|]

Re: UFC 106: Ortiz vs Griffin 2 - Nov 21st Discussion

Also Karo is a notorious flake, hence this just in from Twitter.

"danawhite Karo Parisyan has fucked over the UFC, the fans and
his opponent again!!! He will not be fighting saturday or ever again in the UFC!!"

"danawhite Pulled out of the fight the day before weigh ins again
with a laundry list of excuses!!! Let the press ask karo why! Let him explain."

LOL

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 106: Ortiz vs Griffin 2 - Nov 21st Discussion

Well at least he pulled out, saving me some money (had he fought injured or mentally damaged again).

I guess I will put that money toward Koscheck and make a full bet on him...

[Mr. IWS]

Re: UFC 106: Ortiz vs Griffin 2 - Nov 21st Discussion

Don't you know who I am bro?!?

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 106: Ortiz vs Griffin 2 - Nov 21st Discussion

Volkmann is a very very solid underdog bet. He is a world class grappler and wrestler with a gas tank from hell. He could do exactly what Fitch did to Thiago, but worse. His hands are no good, but he doesnt need them, he was an AA wrestler at minnesota and a big time submission grappler.

That said, I did not bet on him because I just learned all this about him recently. I need to see him fight at least once against decent competition.

[zY|]

Re: UFC 106: Ortiz vs Griffin 2 - Nov 21st Discussion

He was a great underdog bet at the retarded +400 he came in at, but it's way down to +160 and not too much value anymore.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 106: Ortiz vs Griffin 2 - Nov 21st Discussion

Well here's what I'm going with. . .

Forrest Griffin - 1.35u to win 1u
Josh Koscheck - 1u to win 1.04u
Phil Baroni - .65u to win 1u
Luis Cane - .25u to win .29u
Kendall Grove - .75u to win 1.35u
Ben Saunders - .25 to win .48u
Jacob Volkman - .25u to win .4u

This is one of those events where I'm really not particularly confident in on of my picks. I think a lot of these fights could go either way. Hopefully I'll pull a profit when it's all said and done.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: UFC 106: Ortiz vs Griffin 2 - Nov 21st Discussion

GL tonight SPX. Im laying low tonight.