TUF 10 Finale - Dec 5th - Discussion

[MMA_scientist]

Re: TUF 10 Finale - Dec 5th - Discussion

I am looking at the Stann/Wallace fight. I have been trying to gather info on Wallace. He is an athlete. Record setting runnig back at DII college, 3x State champ in HS wrestling. Hasn't lost yet and has more experience than Stann at this point. Assuming a line ever comes out, I assume he will be a nice underdog.

Stylewise, any grappler presents a problem for Stann, who I am not sold on at all, though he did show some improvement in his striking in his last fight. But against another athletic guys with power of his own, who also has a top control game, I could see Wallace beating him. Hopefully the line will open favorably.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: TUF 10 Finale - Dec 5th - Discussion

I like where your going with that. I think Stann is an ordinary fighter, It sounds like this guy will GnP here. From what Ive seen from Stann, he is really no thread to get a sub.

I dont know anything about Wallace either.

[SPX]

Re: TUF 10 Finale - Dec 5th - Discussion

Fuck Brian Stann!

That guy cost me $50 in his fight with Cantwell. . .

[MMA_scientist]

Re: TUF 10 Finale - Dec 5th - Discussion

^^

Here is your chance to get it back! I am not impressed with Stann at all. I don't know this Walalce guy, but have been watching some of his fights. He has already beaten a godo striker in Antwain Britt. He has a submission game and takedowns. If the line opens with Wallace as a considerable underdog (which I think it will) I am gonna put a small play on Wallace, I have talked myself into it.

The other fight I am looking at is Veach/Edgar. Veach is a D1 wrestler, but not quite as good as Edgar. But close enough to where the wrestling should cancel each other out. Edgar has godo tight boxing too though. Anyone knwo anything about Veach other than what we saw in his UFC debut?

[SPX]

Re: TUF 10 Finale - Dec 5th - Discussion

Here is your chance to get it back! I am not impressed with Stann at all. I don't know this Walalce guy, but have been watching some of his fights. He has already beaten a godo striker in Antwain Britt. He has a submission game and takedowns. If the line opens with Wallace as a considerable underdog (which I think it will) I am gonna put a small play on Wallace, I have talked myself into it.

Hmm, I like the way you think! I'm going to look into this guy. Stann hits hard but that's about all he's got, although it's worth bearing in mind that he's been training with Greg Jackson and apparently that training has been paying off for him. Still can't believe he beat Cantwell. That was my most confident pick on the card.

The other fight I am looking at is Veach/Edgar. Veach is a D1 wrestler, but not quite as good as Edgar. But close enough to where the wrestling should cancel each other out. Edgar has godo tight boxing too though. Anyone knwo anything about Veach other than what we saw in his UFC debut?

I didn't see Veach's debut, but I have to believe that Edgar will win this fight. I see him getting a title shot after another couple of fights. He's a top 10 LW easily. Top 5, maybe? Honestly I don't even see how this fight makes sense.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: TUF 10 Finale - Dec 5th - Discussion

I think Edgar will be the obvious favorite, and I agree that he is top 10 lw. I am probably going to make a play on him if the line is not too steep. But I would still like to know a little something about Veach. I know he wrestled at Eastern Illinois (where Hughes wrestled) and is a HIT Squad fighter.

All of these HIT Squad fighters are getting fights in the UFC, and so far they have not looked to deserve it much, it looks more like a nice connection. But a couple of guys have looked decent... but not liek top flight fighters like Edgar.

[zY|]

Re: TUF 10 Finale - Dec 5th - Discussion

First of all, Brian Stann is a legitimate Silver Star wearing war hero. If you bet against Brian Stann you are betting against America.

That said, he's good but not the most talented fighter. His standup is decent and he has a bit of power. This is evident in the 3rd Cantwell fight, as it played out similar to Arlovski/Sylvia 3, with neither man willing to commit out of respect for the other's power. His ground game is pretty lacking obviously, getting tapped to a bulldog kimura by Krzysztof Soszynski, who obviously has an unnatural hatred for vowels.

Another thing is I don't really agree with using Greg Jackson as any kind of favorable analysis. The guy is a top trainer for sure, but I don't think he's really any better than any other top camp. I believe most of his aura comes from after UFC 94, when Georges St. Pierre revealed their detailed and intricate gameplan for dismantling BJ Penn. The thing about this though, GSP is a complete anomaly who executes gameplans better than anyone in the sport. This will not translate to most fighters at all. Also, Jackson is not infallible. Look at his gameplan for Rashad, a wrestler, to stand with Machida and try to catch his timing (aka beat him at his own game.) Horrible. Yeah, it can have positive results if you're fighting Chuck Liddell or Forrest Griffin, but against an elite striker like Lyoto Machida that was just a terrible, terrible plan and it showed. And you also have guys like Leonard Garcia who train under Jackson and just come out and throw huge windmills the entire fight with no backup plan. Jackson is top notch, but he's only as good as his fighters. It's not like they gain some special power by training with him. He also admits this freely in interviews.

I don't really know much about Rodney Wallace, except that he's athletic and has a decent submission game. From what I've heard though, he's very raw and not exactly ready for the UFC yet. He would probably be served better on like a Strikeforce Challenger's card ala Tyron Woodley. Anyways that's just my take on it.

Of course, per the usual, this all could change depending on how the oddsmakers see it.

As for Veach/Edgar, I see this as a terrible mismatch and Edgar should completely steamroll Veach.

Veach is a very raw fighter who I don't expect to offer much to a top fighter like Edgar. If you watch his UFC debut, he actually won by a shit stoppage after basically getting his ass beat for most of the round. He was almost caught in an anaconda choke in the first minute, then he was dropped by strikes from Matt Grice and was taking some serious, serious ground and pound. Grice was passing his guard at will and laying hands on him easily while standing. He only won because he managed to land a wild counter left hook and drop Grice and the fight was immediately stopped, although it was a similar situation to where Veach was dropped earlier and was a really horrible stoppage imo. Most of the fight was Veach being aggressive and shooting for takedowns with minimal setup, most of which were stuffed.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: TUF 10 Finale - Dec 5th - Discussion

^^

Thanks for the input on Wallace. I am still going to put a small underdog bet on him if the odds are good, though. Stann is not ready for the big time either, IMO. He got thrust there because of his hero status.

As for Jackson, I totally agree. I do look at a fighter's camp though, not because of the trainers, but because of the sparring partners. This makes a big difference. You see this phenomenon all the time in wrestling rooms across america. There will be a stud or two in a few weight classes, and all of teh sudden, the guys in weight classes around them are good too. Training partners matter. I don't know where Guida was before, but teh fact that I don't know probably means it was nowhere, and that he was the best guy there. Suddenly being pushed by guys better than you makes a difference. That said, I don't think it will make much a difference in this fight. (Wait a minute, who said anything about Jackson?)

The input on Veach is what I was looking for, I will probably take Edgar unless the line opens out of the universe.

Thanks.

[SPX]

Re: TUF 10 Finale - Dec 5th - Discussion

(Wait a minute, who said anything about Jackson?)

I did. Because that's the only conceivable reason that I can come up with for Stann beating Cantwell. I don't think he was training with Greg before he came to the UFC, but I could be wrong.

[zY|]

Re: TUF 10 Finale - Dec 5th - Discussion

One thing about Veach though, he is certainly tenacious and if anything, showed a lot of heart in that fight.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: TUF 10 Finale - Dec 5th - Discussion

(Wait a minute, who said anything about Jackson?)

I did. Because that's the only conceivable reason that I can come up with for Stann beating Cantwell. I don't think he was training with Greg before he came to the UFC, but I could be wrong.

if I recall correctly, he was at extreme couture. A jump to Jackson's probably isn't gonna help there.

Where did I get Guida? its not even the same event.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: TUF 10 Finale - Dec 5th - Discussion

Finally, some lines.

Im suprised Marcus Jones is a -205.

[SPX]

Re: TUF 10 Finale - Dec 5th - Discussion

Shit, I'm suprised that Kimbo and Houston opened dead even. I thought Houston would be like -200 or worse. Unfortunately, the line is already moving and I can't place any bets until I get home.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: TUF 10 Finale - Dec 5th - Discussion

Houston is already -150


I am bummed that Edgar/Veach came in so steep. I might still make the bet though. He is -460 on Bookmaker though...

There are alot of good underdogs here, for the value bettor. Hamill seems like a good value, Madsen could be a good value too. I don't really bet that way though.

The only fight I am betting is Howrd to beat Hallman. 3u.

[SPX]

Re: TUF 10 Finale - Dec 5th - Discussion

I am bummed that Edgar/Veach came in so steep. I might still make the bet though. He is -460 on Bookmaker though...

If Houston's line keeps moving then I'll probably wait for Bodog to post their lines and put him in a parlay with Edgar.

There are alot of good underdogs here, for the value bettor. Hamill seems like a good value, Madsen could be a good value too. I don't really bet that way though.

Hamill at +250 definitely has value. I put .57u on him at +175. I definitely am wishing I had waited now but I didn't expect so much money to come in on Jones.

The only fight I am betting is Howrd to beat Hallman. 3u.

Interesting. If Hallman's line keeps getting better then I'm thinking he's good for .5u. Howard has not really impressed me. I've watched 3 or 4 of his fights and all of his performances have been rather lackluster. Also, he's too small for WW. He should definitely be fighting at 155.