Strikeforce: Le vs Smith

[SPX]

Thoughts on this one?

Depending on the odds, I'm liking Le, Jacare, and Melendez.

My thinking is that Le is going to be too technical for Smith. Scott Smith's one path to victory is always to get his ass kicked for a while and then land a huge shot which puts his opponents out. I think Le will probably be able to avoid that while tagging him with punches and kicks that earn him a decision. The way I see it is that he'll just stay on the outside and score points.

Melendez has been looking like a monster in his past several fights. Ishida had nothing for him. I know Thompson beat him the first time around, but I think Gil has probably improved since then. At underdog odds, I think he's worth a play.

As for Jacare/Lindland, to be honest I have never once seen Jacare fight, but I hear from a lot of people that he should take this one.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: Strikeforce: Le vs Smith

The only fight I am betting is Jacare/Lindland.

There is 0% chance that Linland can control Jacare on the ground. He is super explosive and the very best grappler in all of MMA right now. He also has solid takedowns for a bjj guy, and was known on the bjj circuit for his takedowns. I like wrestling, but world champion bjj guys eat olympic wrestlers for lunch on the mat.

Linland might try to keep it standing, but if you have seen Linland's standup, you know there is no threat. Jacare has poor standup as well, but it is at least good as Linland's. If Linland tries to grapple him, he is going to get submitted.

[Luke]

Re: Strikeforce: Le vs Smith

I'd take Smith or leave that fight alone.Le is too one dimensional to bet on. The only thing he can do is stand up and strike .If Smth happens to take him down its over. IYou might get screwed betting Smith though because they might pay him to stand in the fight much like they did Shamrock

[SPX]

Re: Strikeforce: Le vs Smith

The only fight I am betting is Jacare/Lindland.

There is 0% chance that Linland can control Jacare on the ground. He is super explosive and the very best grappler in all of MMA right now. He also has solid takedowns for a bjj guy, and was known on the bjj circuit for his takedowns. I like wrestling, but world champion bjj guys eat olympic wrestlers for lunch on the mat.

Linland might try to keep it standing, but if you have seen Linland's standup, you know there is no threat. Jacare has poor standup as well, but it is at least good as Linland's. If Linland tries to grapple him, he is going to get submitted.

What do you think the line will be? At what point does Jacare lose value?

[SPX]

Re: Strikeforce: Le vs Smith

I'd take Smith or leave that fight alone.Le is too one dimensional to bet on. The only thing he can do is stand up and strike .If Smth happens to take him down its over.

The thing about Le's ground skills is that we haven't seen them. You might be surprised to learn that he was a state champ when he was younger and wrestled in both high school and college. If you watch his san shou matches then it's obvious he also has some great throws.

Also, it's been a while since I've seen Smith fight, but does he just like to stand and bang anyway? I can't remember him doing much on the ground.

You might get screwed betting Smith though because they might pay him to stand in the fight much like they did Shamrock.

I remember when that rumor popped up. I obviously can't say one way or the other, but I take it that you believe it to be true?

[Mr. IWS]

Re: Strikeforce: Le vs Smith

I was on Shamrock against Le, and could not believe Shammy wouldnt even try to take him down. Im would not be suprised, knowing what we know now about EliteXC, if they paid Shammy to keep it on the feet.

Anyway.......

The thing I think about the Le/Smith matchup, is Le, IMO, has no intention of fighting anyone other than handpicked opponents now. Shields called him out on numerous occasions, and Le wanted no part, even giving up the title.

Once Shields booked the fight with Mayhem, all the sudden, he had some free time to fight a guy with zero ground skills.

I wont be betting on this one, but I really think Le only picked Smith, because he knows he will just outstrike him for the win.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: Strikeforce: Le vs Smith

The only fight I am betting is Jacare/Lindland.

There is 0% chance that Linland can control Jacare on the ground. He is super explosive and the very best grappler in all of MMA right now. He also has solid takedowns for a bjj guy, and was known on the bjj circuit for his takedowns. I like wrestling, but world champion bjj guys eat olympic wrestlers for lunch on the mat.

Linland might try to keep it standing, but if you have seen Linland's standup, you know there is no threat. Jacare has poor standup as well, but it is at least good as Linland's. If Linland tries to grapple him, he is going to get submitted.

What do you think the line will be? At what point does Jacare lose value?

Sadly, I am not blessed with teh ability to gauge opening lines at all. I have no idea what the line will be. I originally thought there was a chance that Linland would be a favorite (not too long ago, he was considered the #1 MW in all of MMA), but after hearing that everyone is on Jacare, I expect Jacare to come in around -200. But I cannot stress this enough- I am literally the worse prognosticator of opening lines in the universe.

Jacare was beating Mousasi until the upkick, whick is a flukey win to me. I would still take Jacare in a rematch. If not for that upkick, we would all be talking about Jacare fighting Anderson Silva.

For me, he loses value @ about -250.

[Luke]

Re: Strikeforce: Le vs Smith

The thing about Le's ground skills is that we haven't seen them. You might be surprised to learn that he was a state champ when he was younger and wrestled in both high school and college. If you watch his san shou matches then it's obvious he also has some great throws.

Also, it's been a while since I've seen Smith fight, but does he just like to stand and bang anyway? I can't remember him doing much on the ground.



I remember when that rumor popped up. I obviously can't say one way or the other, but I take it that you believe it to be true?[/quote]


I firmly believe Shamrock was paid to stand up in the fight,theres no doubt in my mind.

I've seen tons of his San Shou fights and been at a few of them live. My former kickboxing instructor was really good friends with Cung so I got to meet him several times.San Shou is throws that are meant to be used just to get someone to the mat to score points. Once you have your opponent to the ground you let him back up ,thats a far cry from a ground game.I wonder is he even knows what to do with someone on the ground since the last 20 years has been spent on kickboxing.

He might win but I'd be scared to bet anyone that you havent seen what ground game he might or might not have

Of course Zak maybe right ,he might have hand picked Smith and Smith might not even be allowed to attempt a takedown.

I'd have to see the line on this but I doubt I touch it

[MMA_scientist]

Re: Strikeforce: Le vs Smith

Cung Le was a very good high school wrestler and wrestled at West Valley College. He might not have submission game, but he can wrestle well enough. It is not like Smith is going to try to sub him...


Just sayin.

[SPX]

Re: Strikeforce: Le vs Smith

I've seen tons of his San Shou fights and been at a few of them live. My former kickboxing instructor was really good friends with Cung so I got to meet him several times.San Shou is throws that are meant to be used just to get someone to the mat to score points. Once you have your opponent to the ground you let him back up ,thats a far cry from a ground game.I wonder is he even knows what to do with someone on the ground since the last 20 years has been spent on kickboxing.

What about his high school and college wrestling background? Like I said, I'm pretty sure he took a state championship at one point. I know that was a while back, but everyone makes a big deal about every other fighters' college wrestling experience so we should do the same for a Cung.

Of course Zak maybe right ,he might have hand picked Smith and Smith might not even be allowed to attempt a takedown.

I've never, ever thought of Scott Smith as any sort of ground fighter. He's a banger who looks for the big KO to get wins. I like Smith--I heard a radio interview with him a little while back and he seems like genuinely nice guy--but he was getting beat by Pete Sell for God's sake before the crazy comeback knockout. I think Cung will beat him.

[Luke]

Re: Strikeforce: Le vs Smith

What about his high school and college wrestling background? Like I said, I'm pretty sure he took a state championship at one point. I know that was a while back, but everyone makes a big deal about every other fighters' college wrestling experience so we should do the same for a Cung.

I think he was a junior college wreslter and to tell you the truth I knew the guy for 5 years and never knew about it .Back then MMA wasnt popular and he had no intentions of it.

I'm not saying dont bet Le or too bet Smith I just think its dangerous but if Smith isnt going to try for the takedown I say go balls out on him .If its a small line(and I mean small) I might even take Le

[SPX]

Re: Strikeforce: Le vs Smith

I think he was a junior college wreslter and to tell you the truth I knew the guy for 5 years and never knew about it .Back then MMA wasnt popular and he had no intentions of it.

Why don't you tell us a bit more about your MA background?

[Luke]

Re: Strikeforce: Le vs Smith

I fought under Scott Sheeley(alot of sites spell his last name sheely) for 4 years .I went 11-1 in local events and once fought at the Arnonld Schwarzenegger Classic in Columbus . I fought San Shou just like Cung .

One day I got into the car with Scott and some other guys when we had been drinking leaving a party and hit another car at 70+ MPH . I broke left leg,dislocated my shoulder, broke my nose ,jaw ,orbital bone ,cheek bone, and skull over my left eye .I had 3 metal plates put in around my left eye to repair my cheek bone and skull and was told never to fight again by the doctors . That was the end of my fighting career.All because I was stupid.


Cung Le was the Ali of San Shou seriously.Until my instructor fought Le no one had ever scored a successful throw on him
They fought twice with Le dominating Scott both times.Here's a link to their first fight:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2XX-9r0D3-8

Both fights they fought were on K-1 cards that were pay per view.Both fights were replayed on ESPN2 many times
About the 6:30 mark Scott gets the first throw ever on Cung Le, then 20 seconds later they stop the fight. The fight even though Scott stood no chance was stopped too early so they fought again a few years later which was a worse beating than the first fight. At the time of the first fight Scott was the number one contender and Cung destoyed him.

I still have the USH boxing gloves Cung gave me back then.I'll post a picture of them when I pull them out

[Luke]

Re: Strikeforce: Le vs Smith

Heres the gloves he gave me .I could only find one without waking up the girlfriend lol.These are big gloves ,14 oz .Most boxing gloves are 8 oz or 10 oz gloves

[Mr. IWS]

Re: Strikeforce: Le vs Smith

Nice Luke!