New Lines Up incl. Bisping/Wanderlei!

[SPX]

Re: New Lines Up incl. Bisping/Wanderlei!

You cant think like that imo. Just because someone is the favorite doesnt mean they are going to win.I look for dogs to bet because I dont like laying big juice on a fight

I bet dogs when I think the fight is 50/50 or better.If I lose on a dog I lose 1 unit ,if I lose on most favorites I've lost 1.5 units or more most of the time

Generally I feel that underdogs are underdogs for a reason.

If I bet a dog, it's because I think they CAN win . . . and even have a reasonable chance of doing so . . . but probably won't. That's just the math of the game. I mean, if you bet on a guy because the oddsmakers are only giving him a 30% chance and you think he has a 40% chance, you still have to accept that more times than not your guys is gonna lose. You're just hoping that THIS fight is going to be one of those 4 times in 10 instead of the other way around.

[Luke]

Re: New Lines Up incl. Bisping/Wanderlei!

You cant think like that imo. Just because someone is the favorite doesnt mean they are going to win.I look for dogs to bet because I dont like laying big juice on a fight

I bet dogs when I think the fight is 50/50 or better.If I lose on a dog I lose 1 unit ,if I lose on most favorites I've lost 1.5 units or more most of the time

Generally I feel that underdogs are underdogs for a reason.

If I bet a dog, it's because I think they CAN win . . . and even have a reasonable chance of doing so . . . but probably won't. That's just the math of the game. I mean, if you bet on a guy because the oddsmakers are only giving him a 30% chance and you think he has a 40% chance, you still have to accept that more times than not your guys is gonna lose. You're just hoping that THIS fight is going to be one of those 4 times in 10 instead of the other way around.

Oh I agree .I wont bet a dog unless I think its 50/50 or better .I have never bet a dog just because theres value in the line. Most dogs have value because more favorites cover than dogs in MMA and I think its built into the line to shady toward the favorite but I'm not betting one unless I think its a toss up if he'll win or not.

[SPX]

Re: New Lines Up incl. Bisping/Wanderlei!

Oh I agree .I wont bet a dog unless I think its 50/50 or better .I have never bet a dog just because theres value in the line. Most dogs have value because more favorites cover than dogs in MMA and I think its built into the line to shady toward the favorite but I'm not betting one unless I think its a toss up if he'll win or not.

I think that if you only bet when you think it's 50/50 or the dog actually shouldn't be the dog, then you will probably lose out on some money over the long run. You have to be careful and pick your shots, but even when you bet but don't think your guy is going to win, as long as you bet where there's value and where you can see paths to victory for the undervalued dog, you will make money over the long run.

For instance, I really didn't think Smith was going to beat Le. I thought he Le was stand outside and pick him apart, which is exactly what he did for 2 3/4. But I also knew that Le had fought a bunch of fucking nobodies and that Smith has the power of God in his hands and I thought there was a greater than 23% chance that the oddsmakers were giving him for him to land that right hand and take the fight.

[Luke]

Re: New Lines Up incl. Bisping/Wanderlei!

Oh I agree .I wont bet a dog unless I think its 50/50 or better .I have never bet a dog just because theres value in the line. Most dogs have value because more favorites cover than dogs in MMA and I think its built into the line to shady toward the favorite but I'm not betting one unless I think its a toss up if he'll win or not.

I think that if you only bet when you think it's 50/50 or the dog actually shouldn't be the dog, then you will probably lose out on some money over the long run. You have to be careful and pick your shots, but even when you bet but don't think your guy is going to win, as long as you bet where there's value and where you can see paths to victory for the undervalued dog, you will make money over the long run.

For instance, I really didn't think Smith was going to beat Le. I thought he Le was stand outside and pick him apart, which is exactly what he did for 2 3/4. But I also knew that Le had fought a bunch of fucking nobodies and that Smith has the power of God in his hands and I thought there was a greater than 23% chance that the oddsmakers were giving him for him to land that right hand and take the fight.

Smith was a great bet by you ,I should have followed .I said we should take Smith or nothing but had no balls to actually make the bet

[zY|]

Re: New Lines Up incl. Bisping/Wanderlei!

Oh I agree .I wont bet a dog unless I think its 50/50 or better .I have never bet a dog just because theres value in the line. Most dogs have value because more favorites cover than dogs in MMA and I think its built into the line to shady toward the favorite but I'm not betting one unless I think its a toss up if he'll win or not.

I think that if you only bet when you think it's 50/50 or the dog actually shouldn't be the dog, then you will probably lose out on some money over the long run. You have to be careful and pick your shots, but even when you bet but don't think your guy is going to win, as long as you bet where there's value and where you can see paths to victory for the undervalued dog, you will make money over the long run.

For instance, I really didn't think Smith was going to beat Le. I thought he Le was stand outside and pick him apart, which is exactly what he did for 2 3/4. But I also knew that Le had fought a bunch of fucking nobodies and that Smith has the power of God in his hands and I thought there was a greater than 23% chance that the oddsmakers were giving him for him to land that right hand and take the fight.

Good bet on Smith. I started screaming like a little girl and cackling like a hyena when he laid out Dung Le.

And yeah Smith has power, but it's not COMPLETELY face melting. Nick Diaz ate his best shots and growled at him. Then again Nick has one of the best beards in MMA.

[zY|]

Re: New Lines Up incl. Bisping/Wanderlei!

BTW SPX, you might as well throw that flyer on Bisping in the trash.

Wandy by KTFO hate crime MURDER.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: New Lines Up incl. Bisping/Wanderlei!

Per my rules, I only bet on guys that I think WILL win the fight (not have a better chance than the odds dictate), but there is value in Diaz... and several other dogs in the coming months.

I would say I meet you halfway here. There are fights where I think the guy has a better chance than the odds are giving him, but I really feel strongly that he simply will not win. I do not bet these. But there are plenty of fights where I don't really think a fighter is going to win his fight but has a resonable chance of doing so.

I understand the value approach and agree money can be made this way. But for me it is a behavioral issue (ever listen to Dave Ramsey?). I know what happens to me when I lose several times in a row. I chase it. I raise my bets out of proportion to my bankroll. for lack of a better word, I go on tilt. I like to win. I like to build. I know this about myself so I try to match my strategy to minimize the damage I do with the human element. This is also the reason I ver go over -400, I am even considering lowering that to -350. I don't like the swings.

I like to pick favorites that have favorable matchups, making it unlikely that they will lose. I lose occasionally, though not very often honestly, and way less than the 1 out of 4 I would need to lose to break even. For this reason, maybe 1 out of 10 or 15 bets are underdogs.

But we all have our own quirks, and value is totally subjective. I can appreciate the approach though, but it is not how I bet (which is admittedly not for everyone).

[SPX]

Re: New Lines Up incl. Bisping/Wanderlei!

Good bet on Smith. I started screaming like a little girl and cackling like a hyena when he laid out Dung Le.

I actually got out of my seat and started jumping up and down around my apartment and punching the air, going "Fuck yes! Fuck you, Cung Le!" I think it would due to a number of factors including the fact that I like Scott Smith and sometimes it's nice to see a hype trail get derailed. Also, I think it's just nice to call a fight right. Beyond the money, there's an ego factor involved in all of this.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: New Lines Up incl. Bisping/Wanderlei!

Wandy by KTFO hate crime MURDER.

With a side order of Rape Choke.

[SPX]

Re: New Lines Up incl. Bisping/Wanderlei!

BTW SPX, you might as well throw that flyer on Bisping in the trash.

Wandy by KTFO hate crime MURDER.

I hope you're right. I'd be willing to pay .5u for Wandy to get a win.

[SPX]

Re: New Lines Up incl. Bisping/Wanderlei!

Let's go ahead and add 1.15u on Ellenberger @ -115. Dude looked GREAT against Condit.

And 1.25u on Daley at -110. I did a lot of research on this fight last night and I think Daley will probably take this one.

Hazelett has one way to win this fight: Submission. I think Daley will have some issues with his reach, but once he adjusts he will soundly outstrike him on the feet. Daley also has good TD defense and, while I think that Hazelett is a great BJJ guy, I'm not sure that he'll have the wrestling skills to actually get the fight to the ground or keep it there, so LnP is probably out of the question. Daley is powerful as fuck and I think he will just be able to shake Hazelett off. We also know that Hazelett is capable of succumbing to a power shot (Koscheck).

My guess is that Daley (T)KOs him. He is the stronger, more experienced fighter. If not that, then he'll just outpoint him en route to a decision.

A sub is possible on Hazelett's part, but not to the extent the current line--which has Hazelett as the favorite--would grant.

[zY|]

Re: New Lines Up incl. Bisping/Wanderlei!

I can't agree with you about Daley.

Obviously he has the better striking, but Hazelett is a big guy who has underrated striking himself. I don't know where you're seeing that Daley has good TDD, Jake Shields managed to get him down in both rounds and he has awful wrestling. Hazelett is so dynamic he can just pull guard as well and sweep or sub from there. Daley's ground game is nearly nonexistant. Shields passed his guard like it wasn't even there. McLovin can also win a decision even if he doesn't get the sub (which he should). Daley lost a decision to freakin Nick Thompson in the MFC earlier this year.

I like Hazelett big at even money.

And yes Zak, no extra charge for the rape choke. :D

[SPX]

Re: New Lines Up incl. Bisping/Wanderlei!

Watch Daley VS Alessio or even Daley vs Thompson. Yes, they both got him down, but they had to work hard to do it. I have not seen every Hazelett fight out there, but I know that both with McCrory and Saraiva, his opponents WANTED to go down with him and, in fact, I think they both took him down. Even if you watch the Shield's fight Daley showed a good sprawl, especially in the second round. Please point me in the direction of a fight where I can see it, but I've never seen Hazelett rush in with a power takedown of the type that I think he'll need to use to get Daley down.

MMA is hard to call so I have no idea how this fight is going to go, but I'm thinking we'll see an ending similar to Hazelett/Kos.

[SPX]

Re: New Lines Up incl. Bisping/Wanderlei!

A few more thoughts. . .

Obviously he has the better striking, but Hazelett is a big guy who has underrated striking himself.

He's a TALL guy, but I don't know about big. He's pretty thin and even fought at 155 not too terribly long ago.

Hazelett is so dynamic he can just pull guard as well and sweep or sub from there. Daley's ground game is nearly nonexistant. Shields passed his guard like it wasn't even there.

I think if Hazelett can get him down then he can win the fight. But he has to get him down. Do you remember that Kampmann tried to take Daley down and failed? And Kampmann is a good grappler who was able to take Condit down. If Daley is smart, he will stand and strike and violently resist and move away any time Hazelett gets close enough to go for a takedown.

[zY|]

Re: New Lines Up incl. Bisping/Wanderlei!

All I'm saying is Hazelett doesn't need a takedown to go to the ground. Watch the Burkman fight. Dude is so dynamic.

Kampmann only tried to take Daley down after he had already eaten about 75 left hooks. Desperation shots are just that.