Influence and Bias

[triathlete]

I was reviewing the odds on BestFightOdds and looking at the match-ups so I could find video of the fighters. It started to occur to me. I was looking for reasons the dog was a dog or the favorite was the favorite.

So, here's my question to you: Do you feel that looking at the odds can taint your perspective of the fight? Would it be better to look at the match-ups, watch film, observe, write down your thoughts - then look at the odds? Do you think looking at odds creates a bias in your head as to who you should choose?

Thx,

3

[SPX]

Re: Influence and Bias

I think that the odds at least have a subconscious influence. I know that if the odds are way off from what I expected them to be then it makes me wonder what they know that I don't.

[triathlete]

Re: Influence and Bias

Interesting... do you think that's a good/bad thing? Do you then subconsciously pick with your wallet rather than who you objectively feel will win?

[SPX]

Re: Influence and Bias

Even knowing the odds, I at least attempt to be as objective as possible and try to set my own line as if I had not seen the odds.

What exactly do you mean, "Pick with your wallet?"

[Luke]

Re: Influence and Bias

I was reviewing the odds on BestFightOdds and looking at the match-ups so I could find video of the fighters. It started to occur to me. I was looking for reasons the dog was a dog or the favorite was the favorite.

So, here's my question to you: Do you feel that looking at the odds can taint your perspective of the fight? Would it be better to look at the match-ups, watch film, observe, write down your thoughts - then look at the odds? Do you think looking at odds creates a bias in your head as to who you should choose?

Thx,

3

yes yes yes 1000% yes

Watch the videos and make your thoughts way before you look at odds .I use to look at odds first but then realized how bad of an idea that was.If you look at the odds first there no doubt it will cloud your judgement.
I watch videos and make a line that I think should be the line .If the line is way higher than I think it should be no way I'm betting it . If I think a dog should only be +200 and he's +400 I'm taking the dog

Always research first man

[triathlete]

Re: Influence and Bias

I guess I could see some people seeing a nice price on an underdog, convince themselves it's the right choice, and convince themselves that they could win big.

I don't know what I really mean by it... I just don't want to get lulled into making decisions based on how much I could win - I want to pick right and find the right line. Just wondering if there is any advice out there on making good objective decisions and not letting the allure of odds or potential winnings cloud how I initially research.

Good habits early are good habits to keep. :)

Sorry if these questions seem silly or feckless

[Luke]

Re: Influence and Bias

I guess I could see some people seeing a nice price on an underdog, convince themselves it's the right choice, and convince themselves that they could win big.

I don't know what I really mean by it... I just don't want to get lulled into making decisions based on how much I could win - I want to pick right and find the right line. Just wondering if there is any advice out there on making good objective decisions and not letting the allure of odds or potential winnings cloud how I initially research.

Good habits early are good habits to keep. :)

Sorry if these questions seem silly or feckless

These are not silly questions ,they are questions we all need to know


The best advice I can give you is make your own line for every fight you are interested in.

If you think a line should be -140 and its -250 doesnt mean you should take the dog ,it just means you shouldnt take the favorite

And you should always have reasons why a certain person will win ,not just I think he'll win .

[triathlete]

Re: Influence and Bias

yes yes yes 1000% yes

Watch the videos and make your thoughts way before you look at odds .I use to look at odds first but then realized how bad of an idea that was.If you look at the odds first there no doubt it will cloud your judgement.
I watch videos and make a line that I think should be the line .If the line is way higher than I think it should be no way I'm betting it . If I think a dog should only be +200 and he's +400 I'm taking the dog

Always research first man

First, I appreciate the quick feedback from ya'll.

I realize that not everyone will work this way, but I'm starting to get the feeling I should research before checking out the lines. I suppose then the good picks might become a little more obvious.

BTW, I've been using http://www.mma-core.com to check out fight vids. Any other suggestions?

[Luke]

Re: Influence and Bias

yes yes yes 1000% yes

Watch the videos and make your thoughts way before you look at odds .I use to look at odds first but then realized how bad of an idea that was.If you look at the odds first there no doubt it will cloud your judgement.
I watch videos and make a line that I think should be the line .If the line is way higher than I think it should be no way I'm betting it . If I think a dog should only be +200 and he's +400 I'm taking the dog

Always research first man

First, I appreciate the quick feedback from ya'll.

I realize that not everyone will work this way, but I'm starting to get the feeling I should research before checking out the lines. I suppose then the good picks might become a little more obvious.

BTW, I've been using http://www.mma-core.com to check out fight vids. Any other suggestions?

mma-core.com is by far the best imo but here are a few others

http://www.fightplug.com/

http://mixedmartialartvideos.com

[MMA_scientist]

Re: Influence and Bias

I look at the matchups before the line if at all possible. Generally, I see a fight with fre variables, that I feel confident will play out a certain way, or at least in only positive ways.

Then I set a mental line, I will take X up to -xyz. Then when the line comes out, I can act quickly, because I have already set my own line.

I do not do this for underdogs. For me, in my system, I they have to actually be the favorite in MY line. Sometimes I think someone should be the favorite and they are big underdogs, but usually not, which results in me betting a lot of favorites. For example, I bet on Koscheck to beat Rumble a few months ago, I had my line at -170 for him. I really thought he would open as the favorite. He ended up going to +115 I think. So it was an easy bet for me.

The thing is, favorites win. I did a breakdown of all my bets last year, and my average wager was on -217 fights. I bet several -400 or so, and a handful of underdogs and a bunch between -170 and -300. But I just have to win 2.2 bets to every 1 I lose, which is totally easy. There are alot of -250 fights that are pretty much locks, IMO. I just eliminate as many variables as possible and pick a couple of fights, where the style makes the line askew.

That said, sometimes you see the line first, there is no way around that. Then you just have to try to look at it objectively and set your own line. But yes, I think seeing it first throws you off a little. But you have to take advantage of early odds... so it is unavoidable.

[zY|]

Re: Influence and Bias

If I don't already have it downloaded I use mma-core and http://www.mmalinker.com/ exclusively.

Well, and Youtube of course.

[SPX]

Re: Influence and Bias

I'll throw out a different perspective here. . .

Sometimes the lines make me interested in a fight that I otherwise didn't have any intention to research. For whatever reason, there are times where I'll look at a line and it will motivate me to do research instead of the other way around. I like to take fighters around -170 because that means that they're a significant enough favorite that they probably stand a good chance of winning, but not so much that you have a bet a fortune to make any money off of them. So if a fight opens with a fighter in that range then I might take a deeper look at it.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: Influence and Bias

I really dont do too much research as far as watching old fights. For the most part, I go off memory of previous performance and gut feeling when I bet pretty much anything. Its been working for me in MMA/Boxing and probably NFL Football, but other sports, not so much.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: Influence and Bias

I really dont do too much research as far as watching old fights..

I probably should clarify this a bit. I sit at my desk all day, and watch fights a few times a day, so I guess thats what I mean in terms of research. I watch fights all the time, so when I want to make a bet, chances are, Ive watched a few fights from both competitors already, and can formulate an opinion.