UFC 109: Relentless - Feb 6th - Discussion

[SPX]

Re: UFC 109: Relentless - Feb 6th - Discussion

Slim. Sonnen is submission prone. Nate can scramble. I don't even think Sonnen will be able to take him down mcuh. Add in the fact that he would have to do it for 15 minutes, and it seems unlikely. Sonnen can't finish at all. At all. He would have to execute a perfect gameplan for 15 full minutes. Nate has to know the only way to lose is by top control decision, I am sure he is working it out.
Plus Nate has roid strength.

I agree with you. Nate's a bad ass. I thought his line was laughably mispriced when it opened at -275. Sonnen did impress me in his performance against Okami, though. He did exactly what you just said: executed a perfect gameplan for 15 minutes. There's not a single minute that he wasn't in control of that fight.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: UFC 109: Relentless - Feb 6th - Discussion

Also watch out for Phil Davis on that card. That dude is a blue chip prospect. Stud. Total stud. He is fighting Stann, who keeps suprising me... but Davis is a man-child.

Ive read alot about Davis. Looking forward to seeing him in the UFC.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 109: Relentless - Feb 6th - Discussion

Slim. Sonnen is submission prone. Nate can scramble. I don't even think Sonnen will be able to take him down mcuh. Add in the fact that he would have to do it for 15 minutes, and it seems unlikely. Sonnen can't finish at all. At all. He would have to execute a perfect gameplan for 15 full minutes. Nate has to know the only way to lose is by top control decision, I am sure he is working it out.
Plus Nate has roid strength.

I agree with you. Nate's a bad ass. I thought his line was laughably mispriced when it opened at -275. Sonnen did impress me in his performance against Okami, though. He did exactly what you just said: executed a perfect gameplan for 15 minutes. There's not a single minute that he wasn't in control of that fight.

yeah I jumped on Nate when it opened, I thought it would go up alot...

It is going to be much harder execute that gameplan against Nate. Okami is not nearly as dynamic as Nate. If Sonnen is executing a gameplan well, Nate should be able to switch to a different plan of attack, where as Okami is really just a wrestler. I actually bet on on Sonnen to beat Okami. But he is not going to able to do that to Nate. Going back to 2004, Nate has really only lost to Silva (yes Leites, but we all know Nate won). I think there is a good chance Nate guillotines Sonnen, with head crushing roid force, like he did to Horn.

[The HOFF]

Re: UFC 109: Relentless - Feb 6th - Discussion

How heavy did you go on Marquardt and Maia?

I did 4u and 3u. 4u is an unsually large bet for me. 3u is usually my max. My only concern is that Marquardt hasn't faced as strong of a wrestler as Sonnen is.

Right now I have 10u to win 7.5u on the parlay.

[The HOFF]

Re: UFC 109: Relentless - Feb 6th - Discussion

I am actually kind of concerened about the Maia bet. It was a fan bet, which I only do for a few fighters, and Maia is the main one. I re-watched his Ed Herman fight a couple nights ago, he was starting to gas pretty bad. Miller might be able to survive... I wish I could take that one back.

MMA Math always works! Maia > Sonnen. Sonnen > Miller. Therefor Maia > Miller.

I wouldn't be too worried. Sonnen and Miller are basically the same fighter. They have average stand up and no real KO power. They both rely on their wrestling. Maia had no problems with Sonnen and I think he should be able to sub Miller also. The only concern may be how tentative Maia is as this is his first fight after running into Marquardt's fist.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 109: Relentless - Feb 6th - Discussion

Well it doesnt take alot to make me nervous. I like to be almost positive my fighter is gonna win. I see Miller as closer to Herman that Sonnen. Not quite as good a wrestler, but a better all around grappler than Sonnen.