Odds Up: GSP/Hardy, Mir/Carwin

[zY|]

Re: Odds Up: GSP/Hardy, Mir/Carwin

Damn people are piling on GSP too.

[zY|]

Re: Odds Up: GSP/Hardy, Mir/Carwin

BTW SPX your best friend Mike Hammersmith thinks it's an even fight with a slight edge to Carwin.

[SPX]

Re: Odds Up: GSP/Hardy, Mir/Carwin

BTW SPX your best friend Mike Hammersmith thinks it's an even fight with a slight edge to Carwin.

Damn, all right, let me hedge out and get on Mir. . .

No, seriously, that guy was pretty on target for MOST of his predictions for 107, so that's not necessarily a bad thing.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: Odds Up: GSP/Hardy, Mir/Carwin

BTW SPX your best friend Mike Hammersmith thinks it's an even fight with a slight edge to Carwin.

That dude is going "ttt" crazy in his two threads...LOL

GSP is starting to get out of my price range for that fight.

[SPX]

Re: Odds Up: GSP/Hardy, Mir/Carwin

That dude is going "ttt" crazy in his two threads...LOL

Ha ha, I had to go check that shit out. Funny as hell.

Again, he and I are at odds. I hope he's wrong about Henderson and Roop. They must lose! Especially Roop. . .

[zY|]

Re: Odds Up: GSP/Hardy, Mir/Carwin

rofl that ttt shit is awesome.

Nobody wants to read his shitty picks.

[UKDonkbet]

Re: Odds Up: GSP/Hardy, Mir/Carwin

That dude is going "ttt" crazy in his two threads...LOL

Ha ha, I had to go check that shit out. Funny as hell.

Again, he and I are at odds. I hope he's wrong about Henderson and Roop. They must lose! Especially Roop. . .

Who picked Roop?

[SPX]

Re: Odds Up: GSP/Hardy, Mir/Carwin

Who picked Roop?

The same guy who said that JDS/Yvel was an "even" fight and that Kampmann was "unlikely to win" his fight with Volkmann.

I asked him about it in his thread on Sherdog and he said:

I like Eddie Wineland as a fighter, and made a killing off of his last fight with Tapia, where he was a +125 dog. The thing is, he's just not a complete fighter, and has a lot of trouble with wrestlers. Roop is a solid wrestler, both in the clinch and with shots, and while a lot is being made of his dramatic weight cut, he never cut weight to fight at LW. Even as an undersized LW, he still did marginally well in the UFC against lower tier fighters. Enjoying a size advantage, he should be able to outwork and outwrestle Wineland for a decision.

I think it'll be close, but at +220 for Roop, it's a no-brainer to take him, given I think he wins 55-60% of the time.

And here's his blog for the event. . .

http://www.mmamafia.net/news/featured-m ... -odds.html

[zY|]

Re: Odds Up: GSP/Hardy, Mir/Carwin

Speaking of George Roop's lanky ass at 135...

Good fucking god.

[SPX]

Re: Odds Up: GSP/Hardy, Mir/Carwin

Speaking of George Roop's lanky ass at 135...

Good fucking god.

God, I hope he gets knocked the fuck out.

[UKDonkbet]

Re: Odds Up: GSP/Hardy, Mir/Carwin

Who picked Roop?

The same guy who said that JDS/Yvel was an "even" fight and that Kampmann was "unlikely to win" his fight with Volkmann.

I asked him about it in his thread on Sherdog and he said:

I like Eddie Wineland as a fighter, and made a killing off of his last fight with Tapia, where he was a +125 dog. The thing is, he's just not a complete fighter, and has a lot of trouble with wrestlers. Roop is a solid wrestler, both in the clinch and with shots, and while a lot is being made of his dramatic weight cut, he never cut weight to fight at LW. Even as an undersized LW, he still did marginally well in the UFC against lower tier fighters. Enjoying a size advantage, he should be able to outwork and outwrestle Wineland for a decision.

I think it'll be close, but at +220 for Roop, it's a no-brainer to take him, given I think he wins 55-60% of the time.

And here's his blog for the event. . .

http://www.mmamafia.net/news/featured-m ... -odds.html

wow I don't know what to say. I don't see a path to victory for Roop really. Wineland hands are excellent and Roop isn't really great on his feet. The wrestlers Wineland has had trouble way outclass Roop as a wrestler. All of Wineland's losses come against top level talent. As for JDS and Yvel being equal, wow I thought that was the second most misplaced MMA line all year, thats why I bet enough to clear 6.5u profit. Number one being BJ opening at -190 against Diego

[zY|]

Re: Odds Up: GSP/Hardy, Mir/Carwin

Who picked Roop?

The same guy who said that JDS/Yvel was an "even" fight and that Kampmann was "unlikely to win" his fight with Volkmann.

I asked him about it in his thread on Sherdog and he said:

I like Eddie Wineland as a fighter, and made a killing off of his last fight with Tapia, where he was a +125 dog. The thing is, he's just not a complete fighter, and has a lot of trouble with wrestlers. Roop is a solid wrestler, both in the clinch and with shots, and while a lot is being made of his dramatic weight cut, he never cut weight to fight at LW. Even as an undersized LW, he still did marginally well in the UFC against lower tier fighters. Enjoying a size advantage, he should be able to outwork and outwrestle Wineland for a decision.

I think it'll be close, but at +220 for Roop, it's a no-brainer to take him, given I think he wins 55-60% of the time.

And here's his blog for the event. . .

http://www.mmamafia.net/news/featured-m ... -odds.html

wow I don't know what to say. I don't see a path to victory for Roop really. Wineland hands are excellent and Roop isn't really great on his feet. The wrestlers Wineland has had trouble way outclass Roop as a wrestler. All of Wineland's losses come against top level talent. As for JDS and Yvel being equal, wow I thought that was the second most misplaced MMA line all year, thats why I bet enough to clear 6.5u profit. Number one being BJ opening at -190 against Diego

Yeah that's why we're ripping on him. He gave SPX a bunch of shit about being an amateur, basically, yet he offers some of the most backwards analysis I've seen.

[UKDonkbet]

Re: Odds Up: GSP/Hardy, Mir/Carwin

Yeah that's why we're ripping on him. He gave SPX a bunch of shit about being an amateur, basically, yet he offers some of the most backwards analysis I've seen.

Calling someone an amateur when they call JDS-Yvel even. ha too funny. So I take it he laid money on Yvel if the fight was even since it was a mispriced line? Sounds professional to me

Fuck anyone who gets SPX. Now I really hope Wineland wins.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: Odds Up: GSP/Hardy, Mir/Carwin

Was Roop in a concentration camp? WTF?

[SPX]

Re: Odds Up: GSP/Hardy, Mir/Carwin

Calling someone an amateur when they call JDS-Yvel even. ha too funny. So I take it he laid money on Yvel if the fight was even since it was a mispriced line? Sounds professional to me

Fuck anyone who gets SPX. Now I really hope Wineland wins.

You remember this guy. . . It's the same dude that I posted those excerpts from over on the Junkie forum. You might remember that he said:

You don't have a solid understanding of gambling. I'm one of the better at fight predictions on the net, and still lost my shirt gambling until a couple years ago. Gambling requires a firm understanding of gambling itself, just as much as an understanding of fights. With the way you recommend playing your bets, you'll likely hover around a 5%-10% gain or loss every event, with occasional large drops. You simply don't spread your bets out enough to cover yourself if something happens to a favorite, and don't bet nearly enough dogs in very competitive fights. Yvel and Volkmann are both solid underdog bets, but you've defied gambling logic by taking Dos Santos at -300 in a nearly even fight, and Kampmann at -240 in a fight he's unlikely to win. While it's possible both men win, your gain isn't worth the play, in my book.

and

In short, Kampmann doesn't have the power to take Volkmann out, and on the mat, Volkmann is a clear favorite, as a no-gi World grappling champion and three time All-American out of a tough camp. Kampmann is a strong grappler, but not at the same level. I doubt this fight will be finished either way, but I do believe Volkmann controls the ground fight and avoids harm on the feet to take a decision.

As for these other gamblers encouraging huge bets on Dos Santos at -300, they have more money than sense. With two heavyweight knockout strikers using 4 oz gloves, I wouldn't bet on either fighter at more than -150. Its smarter to put 1u on Yvel at +220 and save 4u than it is to put 5u on Dos Santos to make almost nothing in his victory, and loss a fortune in defeat.