Hardy vs GSP

[REH800]

Obviously this fight is pretty much only a month away and I am getting very excited for it. I am not sure what the odds might be due to the fact that I am just not good at estimating them and haven't even looked for them but I know Hardy will be a HUGE underdog. Any ideas what hte line may be? I do like Hardy a lot and the chances of him beating GSP are slim but I may put some money on him just for the punchers chance.

[SPX]

Re: Hardy vs GSP

[Luke]

Re: Hardy vs GSP

Truthfully I dont think Hardy stands much of a chance but at +550 if you like dogs its worth a shot,just dont expect to win so you dont get disappointed if Hardy loses.

[UKDonkbet]

Re: Hardy vs GSP

Truthfully I dont think Hardy stands much of a chance but at +550 if you like dogs its worth a shot,just dont expect to win so you dont get disappointed if Hardy loses.

Honestly I still think theres value in GSP here. Hardy doesn't win this 15% of the time.

[Luke]

Re: Hardy vs GSP

Personally I would never ever lay -685 in a MMA match ,maybe boxing but not MMA. In MMA any punch can KO someone and any slip up can land you in a submission loss.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: Hardy vs GSP

Personally I would never ever lay -685 in a MMA match ,maybe boxing but not MMA. In MMA any punch can KO someone and any slip up can land you in a submission loss.

Serra/GSP 1 comes to mind.

[Luke]

Re: Hardy vs GSP

Personally I would never ever lay -685 in a MMA match ,maybe boxing but not MMA. In MMA any punch can KO someone and any slip up can land you in a submission loss.

Serra/GSP 1 comes to mind.

exactly

[UKDonkbet]

Re: Hardy vs GSP

I've made my play, 12.5u at -500 on sportsbook. I'm not saying i would lay enough at -685 to win a full unit, but I think there is value there. I lost a double digit units on GSP/Seraa1, but made 3x what I lost on GSP/Serra2. I really think it was a fluke thing. They fight 100 more times. Serra wins 1, maybe.

[REH800]

Re: Hardy vs GSP

Yeah, Serra beating GSP maybe be a fluke, but Hardy is a lot better than Matt Serra. I think Hardy has a better chance than a lot of the past opponents for GSP. I think that Hardy wins %20 percent of the time. His stand up is very solid and his ground game isn't absolutely horrible. I reall'y don't think GSP has the best chin ever either.

[zY|]

Re: Hardy vs GSP

Yeah, Serra beating GSP maybe be a fluke, but Hardy is a lot better than Matt Serra. I think Hardy has a better chance than a lot of the past opponents for GSP. I think that Hardy wins %20 percent of the time. His stand up is very solid and his ground game isn't absolutely horrible. I reall'y don't think GSP has the best chin ever either.

On the contrary, the Serra fight should prove that GSP has a fine beard. He ate about a million bombs and never went out even when mounted and getting destroyed and he finally had to tap out because apparently Big John was willing to let him die. Meanwhile Trigg took a nap after just 2 rights from Serra. That's also the only time he's ever appeared even hurt in a fight and has been tagged flush by Penn, Alves, Fitch, etc.

I also don't really see how Hardy is going to win this. He has a bit of power sure, but he hasn't exactly been setting the world on fire. GSP ain't Rory Markham, and split decisions against Gono and Marcus Davis don't really improve my confidence for his chances.

Seriously, what's he gonna do?

[Mr. IWS]

Re: Hardy vs GSP

Im seriously considering laying the lumber on GSP. I just dont see how Hardy can keep this competitive.

[poopoo333]

Re: Hardy vs GSP

People are saying Hardy's only chance is on the feet, but if this whole fight was purely a striking match, I still think GSP takes it 99/100 times. Not going to risk it at -800 though.

[UKDonkbet]

Re: Hardy vs GSP

Yeah, Serra beating GSP maybe be a fluke, but Hardy is a lot better than Matt Serra. I think Hardy has a better chance than a lot of the past opponents for GSP. I think that Hardy wins %20 percent of the time. His stand up is very solid and his ground game isn't absolutely horrible. I reall'y don't think GSP has the best chin ever either.

On the contrary, the Serra fight should prove that GSP has a fine beard. He ate about a million bombs and never went out even when mounted and getting destroyed and he finally had to tap out because apparently Big John was willing to let him die. Meanwhile Trigg took a nap after just 2 rights from Serra. That's also the only time he's ever appeared even hurt in a fight and has been tagged flush by Penn, Alves, Fitch, etc.

I also don't really see how Hardy is going to win this. He has a bit of power sure, but he hasn't exactly been setting the world on fire. GSP ain't Rory Markham, and split decisions against Gono and Marcus Davis don't really improve my confidence for his chances.

Seriously, what's he gonna do?

+1

I really showed me something when Hardy couldn't finish Swick. Swick either never recovered from a shot late late in the 1st or very early in the second. Hardy should have put him away. IF IF IF Hardy connects w/GSP and doesn't try to kill him immediately then GSP can and will 'drunkenly' take Hardy to the mat while still wobbled and lay on him til he recovers and then pass Hardy's guard, therefore still winning the round. Hardy has good jitz but I would say Serra's jitz is > Hardy's. And Serra's didnt help him any in GSP/Serra 2.

Giving Hardy a 20 win % is very very generous

Im seriously considering laying the lumber on GSP. I just dont see how Hardy can keep this competitive.

I think its +EV still

[SPX]

Re: Hardy vs GSP

Yeah, Serra beating GSP maybe be a fluke, but Hardy is a lot better than Matt Serra.

Everybody wants to underestimate Matt Serra. That's fine. But this statement is . . . not good.

[SPX]

Re: Hardy vs GSP

People are saying Hardy's only chance is on the feet, but if this whole fight was purely a striking match, I still think GSP takes it 99/100 times. Not going to risk it at -800 though.

On the contrary, I think that in a pure striking match Hardy would have an excellent shot at beating GSP. His striking is very impressive. He's fast, powerful, and very precise. The way he clipped Swick with that hook at the end of the first was very nice.

GSP probably wins this one 90% of the time . . . but only because it's an MMA match and he can take Hardy down.