UFC 111 odds / Discussion / Bets

[Ludo]

Re: UFC 111 odds / Discussion / Bets

Brock won't open that low. He'll open at least -200 or higher I think. He's got all the hype whether we like it or not, Line makers pay attention to that.

[Luke]

Re: UFC 111 odds / Discussion / Bets

Brock won't open that low. He'll open at least -200 or higher I think. He's got all the hype whether we like it or not, Line makers pay attention to that.

If you think Brock will open at -200 or higher then I got a bridge to sell you.Brock hasnt fought in almost a year,is only 4-1 and has never fought someone of Carwins caliber.Brock's best win was over Mir who Carwin just destroyed ,not to mention Mir beat Lesnar. The hype is on Carwin right now not Lesnar

This will be a very close line I'm guessing Lesnar -120 to -130

[SPX]

Re: UFC 111 odds / Discussion / Bets

Great job SPX I knew you cleaned up last night but wasnt sure how much

Well done X!

Good work SPX

Thank you, thank you, and thank you.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 111 odds / Discussion / Bets

Congrats SPX. I'm still a way's in the hole after getting Marquardted and the string of upsets at WEC47 but I think I'll find my way out of it soon enough. 9u between 111 and Versus has me confident I'll regain what I lost soon enough. Bring on UFN!

Thank you.

It's ups and downs, for sure. My haul last night was just about exactly enough to make up for my Marquardt bet. That night was bullshit. I was high off seeing Serra KO Trigg and then that shit happened.

In the end we should all end up ahead. Dealing with the variance is tough, though.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 111 odds / Discussion / Bets

Don't forget that "Drwal got Paul Harrisd". I like Palhares and think it's time for him to step up in competition. But I also agree with the slap on the wrist he got for holding that submission. The sport needs a more consistent ethos with regard to whether fighters should always "wait for the ref" or take more responsibility on their own for things like stopping after a tap or even backing off after landing an illegal strike. I lean towards expecting them to do the honorable thing on their own.

I agree, for the most part. It's kind of a tough spot fighters are in with regard to that. Sometimes I also have to wonder if these guys have to crank these subs THAT fucking hard. I mean, I know they're pros and that's part of the game and they're dealing with adrenaline and what not, but a little control would be nice. I went to a judo tournament once (during the brief time that I did judo) and people knew how to puts subs on just enough to make someone tap, but without actually breaking anything.

I have long been a believer in Carwin's ability to beat just about anyone, but now that he's proven himself to everyone, I'm afraid he could hit a wall. Fights where he won't have a wrestling advantage, like with Cain and Lesnar, are going to be tough for him. To me the most interesting thing about his fight with Mir was the gameplan he used. He went the "dirty boxing against the cage" route. What is interesting is that it is a strategy that normally draws the fight out and requires some cardio to pull off, so he and his trainers must have some confidence there. Also, if he gets good at that, it might be a strategy he could use on Cain or Lesnar. (BTW, I was sooooo pissed at that fight restart.)

I think we still haven't seen Carwin fight two types of fighters: strong wrestlers, and elite strikers. I think it remains to be seen if he can beat the likes of Velasquez or Lesnar, but I honestly think he doesn't get by JDS. I think that Dos Santos would be too fast and technical for him and he would probably end up going to sleep.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 111 odds / Discussion / Bets

Oh, its official, Im off the Mir Bandwagon.

I thought quite a bit about Mir's situation last night and I think he is kind of in a Brandon Vera position. (Keep in mind that I have a higher level of respect for Vera than most of you here.)

What I mean by that is that he can't quite hang with the highest level of competition, but he's better than a B-level fighter, too. So he's kind of in a gray area there.

[Ludo]

Re: UFC 111 odds / Discussion / Bets

The problem with not cranking these submissions down so hard was made by GSP. When you don't go for the kill sometimes the guy survives and refuses to tap and in turn he stays in the fight a long long time more than he ever should have. Now GSP did crank that Kimura once after the initial burst and Hardy still refused to tap. Rather than put Hardy out of the fight GSP let him escape and now it's not Hardy who looks bad for not finishing.

Lack of 'killer instinct' can be a detriment in the sport. Guys like GSP and Fitch who are content to lay and pray and do no damage while dominating the positioning is what you get when you don't have the desire to win. They don't fight to win, they fight not to lose. The difference is there is no excitement. Give me a guy who lives and dies by the brawling style like Wanderlei Silva than a guy who doesn't finish anything. It wouldn't be an issue if they were actually doing damage(I realize Fitch was doing damage at one point, but for the majority of that fight he did almost nothing but hold Saunders down), but GSP barely even got Hardy's nose bleeding. He did his only damage with two failed armbar attempts, both of which should have been the fight ending right then and there. GSP should have broken Hardy's fuckin' arm is what it comes down to.

On the flip side, Palhares should have let go when Drwal tapped, or when the Ref came in and motioned that the fight was over, not when the Ref has to litterally grab your hands and wrench them away from the guy's ankle. It's bad form to hold a Sub on that long, especially when you know the guy was already finished by it. Hell the camera crew outside the cage could hear Drwal screaming, I'm sure Palhares could hear it and feel the guy tapping that franticly. So while I appreciate the fact that Palhares is prepared to crank a hold until his guy taps, he should know when enough is enough.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 111 odds / Discussion / Bets

Yahoo's got a new article up about Shane Carwin that says:

"Shane Carwin looks every bit the champ against Frank Mir, but a tougher foe awaits."

You know that's gotta piss Mir off.

[zY|]

Re: UFC 111 odds / Discussion / Bets

The problem with not cranking these submissions down so hard was made by GSP. When you don't go for the kill sometimes the guy survives and refuses to tap and in turn he stays in the fight a long long time more than he ever should have. Now GSP did crank that Kimura once after the initial burst and Hardy still refused to tap. Rather than put Hardy out of the fight GSP let him escape and now it's not Hardy who looks bad for not finishing.

Lack of 'killer instinct' can be a detriment in the sport. Guys like GSP and Fitch who are content to lay and pray and do no damage while dominating the positioning is what you get when you don't have the desire to win. They don't fight to win, they fight not to lose. The difference is there is no excitement. Give me a guy who lives and dies by the brawling style like Wanderlei Silva than a guy who doesn't finish anything. It wouldn't be an issue if they were actually doing damage(I realize Fitch was doing damage at one point, but for the majority of that fight he did almost nothing but hold Saunders down), but GSP barely even got Hardy's nose bleeding. He did his only damage with two failed armbar attempts, both of which should have been the fight ending right then and there. GSP should have broken Hardy's fuckin' arm is what it comes down to.

Quite a bit of conjecture here.

Hardy got out due to technical deficiencies on GSP's part. He said so himself, and was drilling armbars and kimuras in the locker room after the fight.

[Ludo]

Re: UFC 111 odds / Discussion / Bets

Yes and with the experience GSP has in grappling over Hardy there is absolutely no way Hardy should have been able to get out of either armbar. My point is if GSP is supposed to be a top 3 pound for pound fighter and best welterweight in the world who is so much better than everyone else at 170lbs, he should have been able to finish the fight in either instance. If Hardy wouldn't tap, he should have snapped his arm. No reason two arms cranking an isolated one can't garner either a stoppage due to break or a tap.

[Luke]

Re: UFC 111 odds / Discussion / Bets

Yes and with the experience GSP has in grappling over Hardy there is absolutely no way Hardy should have been able to get out of either armbar. My point is if GSP is supposed to be a top 3 pound for pound fighter and best welterweight in the world who is so much better than everyone else at 170lbs, he should have been able to finish the fight in either instance. If Hardy wouldn't tap, he should have snapped his arm. No reason two arms cranking an isolated one can't garner either a stoppage due to break or a tap.

Why does GSP need to stop someone to be considered the best P4P?

GSP won every second of every round of that fight thats enough for me

[zY|]

Re: UFC 111 odds / Discussion / Bets

Again, he didn't snap it and Hardy escaped because GSP wasn't doing it right.

Pound for pound is fantasy nonsense so I don't care about that, but are you saying he's NOT much better than everyone else at 170 pounds? What does that have to do with finishing? Other than unrealistic expectations.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 111 odds / Discussion / Bets

Again, he didn't snap it and Hardy escaped because GSP wasn't doing it right.

Strange, but true. If you go back and watch the fight, GSP didn't have that shit on right. I don't think it had anything to do with him being nice and not snapping the arm.

Also, I know that I'm a huge Serra fanboy, but if you go back and watch the Primetime show, you'll see Hardy training that very escape with Serra. Serra's a great BJJ guy (despite his lack of sub wins in the UFC) and I can't help but think that training that escape may have been what kept Hardy in the fight.

[Ludo]

Re: UFC 111 odds / Discussion / Bets

All I'm saying is every single person here to the best of my recollection said Hardy didn't deserve to be in there with GSP. Some said it about Alves, some said it about Fitch. How can you say he doesn't deserve to be there if he survives 25 minutes of being dominated? How can you lose 2 rounds 10-8 in one of the judges cards and make it 25 full minutes of being in a place your weak in against a guy who's world is that same place and not get finished? Again, If GSP is the best at 170(I'm not saying he isn't, I'm saying he should start acting like it) he should be finishing these guys. He should have finished Alves after neutralizing him, he should have finished Fitch when he rocked him twice and bullied him all night, he should have finished Hardy when he armbarred him on two occasions and had more than a couple openings to go for a choke while he had his back.

Is Fedor considered the best Heavyweight on the planet because he goes to decision all the time? Anderson Silva? BJ Penn? These guys finish fights. Yeah it's great he can get all his takedowns and hold guys down for 25 minutes but what does it prove other than he's walking in bigger than his opponent on fight night and is an insane athelete with a mastery of how to fight not to lose?

[Svino]

Re: UFC 111 odds / Discussion / Bets

How can you say he doesn't deserve to be there if he survives 25 minutes of being dominated?

Because he spent 25 minutes being dominated. And he never had much of a chance not to be dominated.

I'm more impressed with GSP's ability to win fights than I am by any other fighter. I agree that he isn't always exciting to watch though. Much more than any hand-wringing about "freakshows", this is the question that decides if MMA is really a "sport" or if it is "entertainment". If GSP is being paid to be an entertainer, than sure, we can get on his case for not doing that job as well as others. But if he is an athlete, than I think his job is to win competitions. A win is a win, and it isn't fair to ask him to take unnecessary risks in his matches just to be more exciting.

If we think this style of fighting is a problem that needs to be fixed, than the only thing to do is to change the rules of the sport so that it is no longer a good strategy. Maybe a decision win should only count as half a win. You could give 2/3 of a win bonus for a decision, 4/3 for a stoppage. Maybe scorecards should de-emphasize control, and/or call more 10/10 rounds. I wouldn't mind seeing is a mercy-rule for 5 round fights. Have someone check the scorecards each round, and if one fighter has won three rounds on every scorecard, stop the fight.