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I personally think Cains wrestling is better than Carwins. Also if we want to be tech.
Carwin's wrestling is a question mark. Most of the wrestling I've seen him do is in a non-UFC highlight video floating around on YouTube where he basically goes around manhandling people. (He also looks like he's roided to the gills in that shit.) I do know he has credentials though and, at least on paper, he should have the ability when he needs it.
So I guess it's really a leap of faith for me to say that I think he'll be able to nullify Cain's wrestling, but with his wrestling background and his size/strength, I think it's likely that he should at least be able to keep it on the feet. I'm not saying he'll outwrestle Cain, only that their wrestling will cancel out. On the feet, Cain is probably more technically proficient and will hit Carwin more, but Carwin has three rounds to land one of his death punches.
Carwin vs Cain would be semi interesting. On the one hand Carwin got rocked by three consecutive Gonzaga haymakers. On the other hand Cain got rocked several times by Kongo. Carwin has shown a weakness to being taken down but also the ability to pop right back up. Cain has relentless takedowns and a merciless ground attack. Honestly I think Carwin takes it in the first round or not at all. Cain looked fast against Nogueira but Carwin isn't a blundering oaf either.
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Dos Santos still needs to prove his ground game / takedown defense. I could be persuaded to switch Carwin and Cain, but I think that while Carwin's wrestling may be weaker, it's "good enough" for almost all opponents, and he has more power in his hands. So far, I'm liking the odds for Carwin against Mir, but I'm concerned that "UberMir" may be different enough from his earlier self that prediction is tough. Any other opinions on that fight?
I think Carwin has a chance of winning that fight in the standup with a meaty punch (like his victory over Gonzaga, or Bader v. Jardine). Also, I could see him beating Mir on the ground (like Lesnar v. Mir 2 or Vera v. Mir). And I could see him getting the decision by losing the standup only slightly, then stealing rounds with a couple takedowns (Evans v. Sylva).
I guess for me it centers on the fact that that Carwin is a proven wrestler and Mir has weak takedown D, so if even one of these possibilities can work, Carwin potentially has the tools to get it there.
There are definitely some similarities with Cain vs. Nog. I backed Nog, largely because I thought his positional jiu-jitsu was being underrated. Nog has great sweeps and I couldn't see Cain controlling him on the ground for very long. Of course, we didn't really get to find out and I felt like an idiot for misevaluating the striking balance.
There are definitely some similarities with Cain vs. Nog. I backed Nog, largely because I thought his positional jiu-jitsu was being underrated. Nog has great sweeps and I couldn't see Cain controlling him on the ground for very long. Of course, we didn't really get to find out and I felt like an idiot for misevaluating the striking balance.
I actually had Cain winning the fight, but I don't think anyone could have guessed that Cain would have such a striking advantage. His striking looked improved... there is no way to account for that. Sometimes guys just come out with a new skill and it throws your whole breakdown off.
I would still like to see what would happen on the ground between Nog and Cain.
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