Strikceforce CBS April 17th fights /discussion

[MMA_scientist]

Re: Strikceforce CBS April 17th fights /discussion

I thought you already did that. . .

No, I think I might have said I was going to, but I have been betting everything. I have had more dogs in the last 60 days than probably te last 2 years combined.

Also-- Aoki got served.

[SPX]

Re: Strikceforce CBS April 17th fights /discussion

No, I think I might have said I was going to, but I have been betting everything. I have had more dogs in the last 60 days than probably te last 2 years combined.

Well in the case of Strikeforce, Hendo to me seemed like a typical bet for you. I thought that Melendez was a lot less your style.

Also-- Aoki got served.

It's true. I wasn't too sad to see it. I don't like him. It was a head bet. I just wish I had bet with my heart, instead.

I'm a lot more disappointed in Mousasi. What the fuck was that shit?

[MMA_scientist]

Re: Strikceforce CBS April 17th fights /discussion

Mousasi did the exact thing we were talking about last week... just looked like he didn't feel like fighting that day.

I have yet to figure out this phenomenon. Its like he got in there and was just like, "screw it, I am not going to fight today." He didn't even try to stuff the takedowns. And he didn't try to stand up at all.

I wasn't that surprised, because I wasn't totally sold on Mousasi anyway.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: Strikceforce CBS April 17th fights /discussion

[quote="SPX"]Well in the case of Strikeforce, Hendo to me seemed like a typical bet for you. I thought that Melendez was a lot less your style.[quote]

Well, maybe. Except when I originally broke down Hendo/Shields, I went with Shields. Then I wanted to beef up my return, so I added Hendo at the last minute.

My average line is actually a lot closer to the Melendez line that the Hendo line. My average line is -227 (or was a couple minths back). I really don't like to go with heavy favorites. I feel that -170 to -270 is the right range for me. I feel that you can find just as many "sure things" at -200 as at -400. I don't feel there is that much difference, except in name power.

When you get to -600, you are looking at what should be absolute locks, so there should be more certainty there. I am going to go to a firm -400 rule. I might even drop it to -350. Then I am going to start looking at the fights a little more closely like I used to. I think I am getting cocky. I am still up quite a lot since January, but I am definately being more reckless than usual.

[Svino]

Re: Strikceforce CBS April 17th fights /discussion

I really think that Mousasi's problem was stamina. He was starting to gas even late in the first. If he didn't, each of the rounds 3-5 would have been progressively better than the second (which he won) for him. I didn't expect him to stop Mo's early takedowns, and he did as good a job at striking from the bottom as I've seen anyone do in quite a while. It looks like he and Mo are potentially great fighters that won't be top tier until they can solve a common problem, their gas tank. Fortunately, that might be the easiest of all common flaws to fix. Doesn't mean it will happen, though.

I was actually impressed with Aoki's post-fight comments. He seemed genuinely humbled; we'll see how long that lasts. Now would be a good time for him to find a take off a year or so, find a coach in Thailand who can train up his striking. (In the movie version, this would be where you put the montage.)

So far, I've done all right with really big lines. With huge lines, my usual rule is to ask myself, "What if the favorite was a little bit worse in every single dimension than I think they are, and what if the underdog is a little bit better?" Basically, assume a significant uncertainty in estimating every skill of every guy. If you think the favorite still wins under those conditions, it may be worth the bet.

Examples that worked for me: Cro Cop over Perosh, GSP over Hardy. Hardy and GSP could have been more closely matched in every aspect, and GSP would still win by takedowns and control. Contrast that with Penn vs. Edgar, where if Penn was just a little bit worse than I thought in striking and Edgar just a little bit better, he could steal the fight - and that was what happened. Especially dangerous are the fights where the guys have similar styles but one is considered to be "a little bit better at everything". This kind of belief can lead to a big betting line, even though it is very hard to be certain of how each skill matches up when they are close.

[SPX]

Re: Strikceforce CBS April 17th fights /discussion

(In the movie version, this would be where you put the montage.)

Hell yeah!

[Mr. IWS]

Re: Strikceforce CBS April 17th fights /discussion

Ive heard two reports on Shields. 1) his contract is up 2) Coker has a 1 fight option.

I would love to see Shields and Jacarae.

[SPX]

Re: Strikceforce CBS April 17th fights /discussion

Ive heard two reports on Shields. 1) his contract is up 2) Coker has a 1 fight option.

I would love to see Shields and Jacarae.

And NEWWWWWWW Strikeforce middlweight champion of the worlddddd!!!!!

[zY|]

Re: Strikceforce CBS April 17th fights /discussion

Ive heard two reports on Shields. 1) his contract is up 2) Coker has a 1 fight option.

I would love to see Shields and Jacarae.

And NEWWWWWWW Strikeforce middlweight champion of the worlddddd!!!!!

LOL exactly. Jacare will rape Shields' whole family. A bigger, stronger, more athletic Demien Maia with better striking.

Also, awesome post Svino.

[Thewiseman]

Re: Strikceforce CBS April 17th fights /discussion

Im not sure why everyone is so suprised about Mousasi. He never had fought a wrestler even remotely close to being as good as King Mo. Now we know.

[Luke]

Re: Strikceforce CBS April 17th fights /discussion

Im not sure why everyone is so suprised about Mousasi. He never had fought a wrestler even remotely close to being as good as King Mo. Now we know.

Its called a hype train wiseman ,never get on one

[SPX]

Re: Strikceforce CBS April 17th fights /discussion

Its called a hype train wiseman ,never get on one

A hype train backed by much experience and many good wins.

[zY|]

Re: Strikceforce CBS April 17th fights /discussion

Im not sure why everyone is so suprised about Mousasi. He never had fought a wrestler even remotely close to being as good as King Mo. Now we know.

I realize hindsight is fun and all, but he best fighter King Mo had fought was Mike Whitehead. Suffice it to say doubts were warranted.

[Johnny Unreliable]

Re: Strikceforce CBS April 17th fights /discussion

Up a few units. Only ended up betting on Melendez. Pussied out of the hendo fight due to the line (though that first round had me screaming at the TV wishing I bet on it).

And Aoki got tooled like I said baby. Complete domination. /gloats

[Luke]

Re: Strikceforce CBS April 17th fights /discussion

Its called a hype train wiseman ,never get on one

A hype train backed by much experience and many good wins.

You mean like Dan Henderson? I didnt say I didnt fall for hype also